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FiinPro Data Digest #1: Vietnam Stock Market from Data Analytics Perspective

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The year 2019 has just passed with unattractive stock market performance as VN-Index posted 7.7% growth.

So, what is the prospect for stock market in 2020 and in the next 5 years?

With the mission "Enlighten the Market" and data strength, we constantly strive to bring valuable platforms and tools as well as information and analysis to our customers.

This report has been prepared by our Data Analytics Team under the FiinGroup's Financial Information division. We hope this publication will provide you with useful information!

Wishing you a successful year ahead and happy investing!

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Should you wish to receive FiinGroup's PDF format of the publication or require further information, please contact us via message/ email, or leave your email in a comment below.
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FiinPro Data Digest #1: Vietnam Stock Market from Data Analytics Perspective

  1. 1. 1Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Vietnam Stock Market: 2019 Insights and 2020 Outlook from Data Analytics Perspective The Powerful Product Suite of FiinGroup FiinPro Data Digest I Issue #1 I January 10, 2020 Prepared by: Data Analytics Team Only for the subscribers of FiinPro Platform and FiinTrade Platform @ 2019 FiinGroup Joint Stock Company All rights reserved. All information contained in this publication is copyrighted in the name of FiinGroup, and as such no part of this publication may be reproduced, repackaged, redistributed, resold in whole or in any part, or used in any form or by any means graphic, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, or by information storage or retrieval, or by any other means, without the express written consent of the publisher.
  2. 2. 2Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Preface Dear valued customers: The year 2019 has just passed with unattractive stock market performance as VN-Index posted 7.7% growth. Looking back to a longer horizontal, VN-Index only increased by 76% in the past 5 years and by 94% in the past decade, equaling to 12% and 6.4% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) respectively. This performance was quite low, and to some extent, was disappointing by the investment community in the context of strong macroeconomic fundamentals recently in Vietnam. So, what is the prospect for stock market in 2020? This is very challenging question to any research house and investment institution. However, from our daily data mining works in supporting our data subscribers, we think it is good for the market if we can provide data-driven analysis and views with a hope to better serve our institutional investor clients and also our growing retail client base who are brokers, traders and investors subscribing our FiinTrade Platform. Our Data Analytics team has analyzed and presented data in the simplest way to help customers understand the market performance in 2019 and trying to assessing its implications for 2020 where it is possible. The market data mostly covers HOSE, HNX, UPCOM, except for some noted tables that are made up of data from HOSE only. For financial data, we covered also public but unlisted companies. In this report, we use Level 2 under Industry Classification Benchmark (ICB) for analyzing the sector performance. This is our first issue of "FiinPro Data Digest“ under a series of reports that we plan to carry out in coming time to serve FiinGroup customers and subscribers of FiinPro Platform and FiinTrade Platform. We will endeavor to produce the next reports to help customers have more in depths of some aspects in the market from data analytics perspective. With the mission "Enlighten the Market" and data strength, we constantly strive to bring valuable platforms and tools as well as information and analysis to our customers. This report has been prepared by our Data Analytics Team under the FiinGroup's Financial Information division. We hope this publication will provide you with useful information. Would you like to have more insights and data supporting arguments in this Report, please kindly contact us at: info@fiingroup.vn Wishing you a successful year ahead and happy investing! Data Analytics Team Financial Information Group FiinGroup Joint Stock Company
  3. 3. 3Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up This return is equal to 12-month deposit rate - a very low risk investment channel. Figure 1: Price change of popular investment channels in 2019 The VN-Index rose only 7.7% in 2019, volatility is low Source: FiinPro Platform Note: Average 12-month deposit rate of 4 state-owned banks. SJC domestic gold price.  Stock trading provides investors with opportunities to make a quick profit from "surfing" and trading many times, not just buying and holding until the end of the year. From this perspective, VN-Index in 2019 was not attractive in terms of volatility with the peak at 1024.91 point and bottom at 878.22 point, or 16.4% moving range.  Moreover, the average daily trading value also dropped by 29% to VND4.7 trillion from VND6.5 trillion in 2018.  Regarding real estate investment channel, if excluding the price increase, the rental income for apartments was quite low, specifically 4.4%/year for luxury, 5.7% for mid-end and 5.9% for affordable segment, according to batdongsan.com. This level was lower than the average return on stock market in 2019. VN-Index, 7.7% USD/VND, -0.06% Gold Price, 16.5% Deposite Rate, 6.83% Deposite Rate, 6.73% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% VN-Index USD/VND Gold Price Deposite Rate
  4. 4. 4Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up In the context that macroeconomic indicators has been good and are expected to remain healthy, stock market performance is the disappointment for investors. Figure 2: Returns of invest channels 2010 - 2019 VN-Index only grew 6.4%/year on average in the past 10 years Source: FiinPro Platform  Looking at longer horizon, VN-Index increased by only 76% in the last 5 years and 94% in the past decade.  The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of VN-Index in the past 10 years was about 6.4%, higher than 4.8% for gold. In the last 5 years, CAGR of VN-Index was 12%.  In short, in 2019 and the past 5 years, the stock market was basically not an attractive investment channel, although many investors have enjoyed high returns, especially in 2018. VN-Index, 94.7% Gold Price, 59.7% -35% 5% 45% 85% 125% VN-Index Gold Price
  5. 5. Let's look back 2019 and recent years with market data and fundamental data sourced from our FiinPro Platform
  6. 6. Table of Contents Content Page Preface 3 1 Vietnam Stock Market 2019: Data Analytics Perspective 6 - 31 1.1 Liquidity Drained! 6 - 8 1.2 Top Gainers and Losers 9 - 11 1.3 Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who is the Winner? 12 - 15 1.4 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! 16 - 18 1.5 Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! 19 - 21 1.6 Insiders also on Net Buy! 22 - 23 1.7 ETFs Still Small but on the Rise! 24 - 26 1.8 Investors’ preference switched to Bonds 27 - 31 2 2020 Market Outlook 32 - 47 2.1 Market Valuation Looks Attractive! 33 - 36 2.1 But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 37 - 41 2.3 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group 42 - 44 2.4 A View on Market in 2020! 45 - 50 About FiinGroup 51 - 59
  7. 7. 7Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Average daily trading value dropped by 28.9% while trading volume fell by 15.9% in 2019. Why? Many factors but the most notable are that domestic investors shifted to corporate bonds while foreign investors' net buying was very low! Figure 3: Average daily trading value of HOSE, HNX and UPCOM and VN-Index movements Liquidity Drained!  Compared to 2018, the average daily trading value dropped by 28.9% to VND4.7 trillion while average daily trading volume fell 15.9% to 227 million shares.  In terms of transaction type, daily trading value of put-through decreased by 10.8% to VND1.2 trillion, while order-matching daily trading value fell by 33.5% to VND3.5 trillion. Source: FiinPro Platform VN-Index 1204.33 960.99 2.3 0.8 1.0 1.2 2.7 2.2 2.5 4.2 5.2 3.5 2.5 1.0 1.3 1.4 3.0 2.5 3.0 5.1 6.5 4.7 (2) 48 98 148 198 248 - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 TrillionVND Avg. Deal Value Avg. Match Value VN-Index
  8. 8. 8Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up However, some sectors saw very high liquidity improvement! Liquidity Drained!  In terms of market cap, the average daily trading value fell by about 34.3% in large-caps, 33.1% in mid- caps and 16.2% in small-caps.  Sectors with highest drop in liquidity were Financial Services (mainly due to SSI, VND), Communications (YEG) and Banking (VPB, ACB). In the contrary, Telecommunications (VGI), Construction & Materials (ROS), Chemicals (PHR) and Retailing (MWG) were the sectors with higher liquidity, in which Telecommunications soared thanks to VGI’s listing from the end of 2018. Figure 4: Change in average daily trading value by sector 2019 vs. 2018 Source: FiinPro Platform Note: Data includes HOSE. HNX & UPCoM -58.3% -55.9% -51.4% -46.9% -40.3% -38.7% -34.5% -32.4% -32.2% -27.1% -17.3% -16.9% -8.5% -5.4% -4.6% 9.3% 10.8% 44.4% 731.3% Financial Services Media Banks Basic Resources Health Care Oil & Gas Food & Beverage Travel & Leisure Real Estate Insurance Industrial Goods & Services Automobiles & Parts Technology Utilities Personal & Household Goods Retail Chemicals Construction & Materials Telecommunications NVL, VIC, VHM MSN VGI ROS YEG SSI, VND
  9. 9. 9Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Table of Contents Content Page Preface 3 1 Vietnam Stock Market 2019: Data Analytics Perspective 6 - 31 1.1 Liquidity Drained! 6 - 8 1.2 Top Gainers and Losers 9 - 11 1.3 Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who is the Winner? 12 - 15 1.4 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! 16 - 18 1.5 Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! 19 - 21 1.6 Insiders also on Net Buy! 22 - 23 1.7 ETFs Still Small but on the Rise! 24 - 26 1.8 Investors’ preference switched to Bonds 27 - 31 2 2020 Market Outlook 32 - 47 2.1 Market Valuation Looks Attractive! 33 - 36 2.1 But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 37 - 41 2.3 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group 42 - 44 2.4 A View on Market in 2020! 45 - 50 About FiinGroup 51 - 59
  10. 10. 10Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Many outperforming stocks rose sharply in 2019 and they all had their own stories! Top Gainers and Losers Source: FiinPro Platform  Every outperformer had their own story. VCB still maintained its upward performance of 70% last year; BID rose by 39% with nearly US$1 billion of fresh money from Korea; Technology (FPT and CMC) was heavily bought by being a leader in the trend of digital transformation and software outsourcing; and VGI (Viettel Global) on UPCoM also jumped sharply.  Besides the above-mentioned industries, Retail had 23.3% price growth despite strong fluctuations during the year while some sectors also posted high growth such as: (i) Real Estate (+17.8%); (ii) Tourism & Entertainment (+13.3%); (iii) Utilities (+11.7%). Figure 5: Top outperforming sectors in 2019 Banks, 25.9% Automobiles & Parts, 39.2% Telecommunications, 64.5% Technology, 49.6% VN-Index, 7.7% Banks Automobiles & Parts Telecommunications Technology VN-Index FPT +58.1% CMG +61.5% TCH +93.4% DRC +14% VCB +70.1% BID +38.8% VGI +80.3%
  11. 11. 11Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up However, 2019 was a difficult year for those who owned Insurance, Oil & Gas and Financial Services i.e. securities firms and funds Top Gainers and Losers Source: FiinPro Platform  Draining market liquidity and lower investment revenue resulted in sharp fall of 21 out of 29 stocks in Financial Services, including leading stocks such as SSI (-39.1%) or VCI (-34%).  World oil prices were complicated last year causing disadvantages for Oil & Gas, especially Oil & Gas Exploitation. Although PLX rose by 9.9%, strong influence from the falling of BSR (-41.1%) and OIL (-46.6%) led to overall decline of the sector. Figure 6: Top underperformers in 2019 Insurance, -14.9% Oil & Gas, -13.6% Financial Services, -10.0% VN-Index, 7.7% Insurance Oil & Gas Financial Services VN-Index VCI -34% SSI -39,2% BSR -41,1% OIL -46,6% BVH -21,9% PTI -5,2%
  12. 12. 12Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Table of Contents Content Page Preface 3 1 Vietnam Stock Market 2019: Data Analytics Perspective 6 - 31 1.1 Liquidity Drained! 6 - 8 1.2 Top Gainers and Losers 9 - 11 1.3 Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who is the Winner? 12 - 15 1.4 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! 16 - 18 1.5 Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! 19 - 21 1.6 Insiders also on Net Buy! 22 - 23 1.7 ETFs Still Small but on the Rise! 24 - 26 1.8 Investors’ preference switched to Bonds 27 - 31 2 2020 Market Outlook 32 - 47 2.1 Market Valuation Looks Attractive! 33 - 36 2.1 But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 37 - 41 2.3 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group 42 - 44 2.4 A View on Market in 2020! 45 - 50 About FiinGroup 51 - 59
  13. 13. 13Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who’s the Winner? Source: FiinPro Platform Note: This is order-matching and no zero-sum game data on HOSE only, VN-Index change (monthly) Local investors seem to be gainers eventually in 2019 with buy low and sell high Figure 7: Net buying/selling value by foreign investors vs. local investors on HOSE in 2019  On HOSE, foreign investors was in opposite position, they bought high sold low.  In 2019, local investors sold Real Estate, Banking, Food & Beverages stocks while buying stocks of Construction & Materials. 2.0% 6.0% 1.6% -0.1% -2.0% -1.0% 4.4% -0.8% 1.3% 0.2% -2.8% -1.0% -7% -5% -3% -1% 1% 3% 5% 7% (2,500) (2,000) (1,500) (1,000) (500) 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Netbuy/sellvalue(BnVND) Foreign Investors Local Investors VN-Index Change Local investors net sold VND6.8 tn of shares in 9/12 months
  14. 14. 14Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Figure 8: Foreign net buying/selling by sectors in 2019 vs. 2018 Unit: trillion VND Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who’s the Winner? Source: FiinPro Platform Notes: HOSE, HNX & UPCOM Foreign investors net bought VND7.3bn of Vietnam shares in 2019, including VND5.3bn of shares of VIC, and thus the foreign net buying value of other stocks was modest!  Real Estate, Banking, Financial Services, Retail, Foods & Beverages were still net purchased by foreign investors, but the net buying value in 2019 was much lower than those in 2018 and 2017.  Foreign investors net bought VND764.3bn of Insurance stocks (+58.3% y/y) though Insurance was the worst- performing sector in 2019. Oil & Gas and IT recorded VND1,900bn and VND270.2bn in foreign net buying respectively following foreign net selling in 2018. (1.5) (2.2) (0.2) (0.4) (0.5) 0.5 2.3 4.1 3.8 (0.7) 22.3 (1.6) (1.1) (0.7) (0.6) (0.5) 0.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.9 3.1 Travel & Leisure Construction & Materials Health Care Chemicals Basic Resources Insurance Industrial Goods & Services Financial Services Banks Oil & Gas Real Estate 2019 2018
  15. 15. 15Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Large caps were still preferred by foreign investors in the past 3 years. Foreign net buying value totaled at VND108.8 trillion (over US$5bn) in recent 10 years. So who were net sellers? Figure 9: Foreign net buying/selling by stock marcap size Unit: trillion VND Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who’s the Winner? (8.5) 21.4 35.9 6.2 1.3 7.4 8.3 2.0 1.2 0.4 (0.9) (0.8) 2016 2017 2018 2019 TrillionVND Largecap Midcap Smallcap FOL regulation loosening Source: FiinPro Platform Notes: HOSE, HNX & UPCoM; year-end marcap: Largecap: > VND10tn, Midcap: VND100bn ~ 10tn, Smallcap: < VND1tn  Large cap & mid cap stocks enjoyed foreign net buying while small caps were net sold by foreign investors for a second consecutive year in 2019 with the net selling value of VND800bn in 2019 vs. VND900bn in 2018.  In 2019, foreign investors net bought VND2trillion worth of mid cap stocks, equivalent to 32.3% of their net buying value of blue chips. The ratio was lower at 23.1% in 2018.
  16. 16. 16Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Table of Contents Content Page Preface 3 1 Vietnam Stock Market 2019: Data Analytics Perspective 6 - 31 1.1 Liquidity Drained! 6 - 8 1.2 Top Gainers and Losers 9 - 11 1.3 Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who is the Winner? 12 - 15 1.4 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! 16 - 18 1.5 Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! 19 - 21 1.6 Insiders also on Net Buy! 22 - 23 1.7 ETFs Still Small but on the Rise! 24 - 26 1.8 Investors’ preference switched to Bonds 27 - 31 2 2020 Market Outlook 32 - 47 2.1 Market Valuation Looks Attractive! 33 - 36 2.1 But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 37 - 41 2.3 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group 42 - 44 2.4 A View on Market in 2020! 45 - 50 About FiinGroup 51 - 59
  17. 17. 17Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Only 21% or 7 out of 33 equity funds tracked by FiinPro outperformed VN-Index, but these 7 funds hold a combined 1.84% of total AUMs of 33 funds. Data was updated as of Nov 29, 2019. Figure 10: NAV growth of ten equity funds 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! Sour: FiinPro Platform Notes: Data compiled from 33 equity funds as of 29/11/2019  33 equity funds (bond-focused funds excluded) tracked by FiinPro had total AUM of US$3.1bn as of Nov 29, 2019.  VEIL, the largest Vietnam-focused closed-end fund with US$1.5bn in AUM, had NAV growth of 8.32%. VOF, the second largest one with nearly US$930mn in AUM, reported NAV decline of 1.71% while TVAM Growth Fund had the strongest NAV decline of 13.3%. 16.46% 13.47% 12.48% 9.70% 9.27% 8.32% 4.36% 1.82% 0.00% -1.71% VN-Index: +8.86% VN30-Index: +3.72% Top 5 funds by NAV growth Top 5 funds by NAVs
  18. 18. 18Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Equity funds uploaded Banking, Real Estate, Basic Resources, Personal & Household Goods stocks while cutting portfolios in Travel & Leisure and Utilities. Figure 11: Top holdings of equity funds by sectors & stocks Unit: trillion VND 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! Source: FiinPro Platform Notes: Data compiled from 26 equity funds (excluding VEIL & Vietnam Equity (UCITS) Fund of Dragon Capital) as of Nov 29, 2019  Equity funds net bought VND1.55 trillion worth of local shares in 11M/2019, with TCB having the biggest foreign net buying value of VND502.7bn, followed by PVS (VND319.7 bn), and HPG (VND417.7 bn).  HPG was the top holding by equity funds with a combined value of VND3.3tn by the end of Nov 2019. 3.3 2.4 2.2 2.2 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.7 2.9 1.9 1.9 2.2 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.5 2019 2018 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.3 2.4 4.4 4.6 0.3 0.2 0.8 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.2 2.1 3.7 3.6 Travel & Leisure Insurance Utilities Oil & Gas Financial Services Construction & Materials Food & Beverage Industrial Goods &… Real Estate Banks 2018 2019
  19. 19. 19Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Table of Contents Content Page Preface 3 1 Vietnam Stock Market 2019: Data Analytics Perspective 6 - 31 1.1 Liquidity Drained! 6 - 8 1.2 Top Gainers and Losers 9 - 11 1.3 Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who is the Winner? 12 - 15 1.4 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! 16 - 18 1.5 Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! 19 - 21 1.6 Insiders also on Net Buy! 22 - 23 1.7 ETFs Still Small but on the Rise! 24 - 26 1.8 Investors’ preference switched to Bonds 27 - 31 2 2020 Market Outlook 32 - 47 2.1 Market Valuation Looks Attractive! 33 - 36 2.1 But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 37 - 41 2.3 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group 42 - 44 2.4 A View on Market in 2020! 45 - 50 About FiinGroup 51 - 59
  20. 20. 20Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Net buying value by prop trading totaled VND308.2bn (nearly US$13.1mn) in 2019, reversing from net- selling position in the previous four consecutive years. Figure 12: Net prop trading value in 2015-2019 Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! Source: FiinPro Platform Notes: HOSE only (922.4) (379.8) (1,366.8) (1,280.2) 308.2 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 BillionVND Net selling of VND3.9tn in 4 consecutive years Unit: billion VND  The net buying value by prop trading was modest but this indicated their view about market outlook.
  21. 21. 21Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Food & Beverages and Banking recorded net buying value of prop trading while shares of Financial Services were net sold by them. Figure 13: Net buying/selling value of prop trading by sectors Unit: trillion VND Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! Source: FiinPro Platform Note: Data covered HOSE only  Food & Beverages shares have been steadily net bought by prop traders at securities companies since 2016, with the 2019 net buying value topping at VND1.74 trillion, +10.6 times against 2018.  Prop traders net purchased VND407.3 billion worth of Banking shares in 2019 after maintaining net- selling position in the four preceding years.  Financial Services stocks were sold for the fifth consecutive year in 2019, with the net selling value of nearly VND2.4 trillion. (1.8) 0.2 0.2 (0.3) 0.2 (0.2) (0.1) 0.2 (2.5) (0.2) (0.1) (0.1) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.7 Financial Services Utilities Industrial Goods & Services Automobiles & Parts Travel & Leisure Construction & Materials Real Estate Oil & Gas Banks Food & Beverage 2019 2018
  22. 22. 22Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Table of Contents Content Page Preface 3 1 Vietnam Stock Market 2019: Data Analytics Perspective 6 - 31 1.1 Liquidity Drained! 6 - 8 1.2 Top Gainers and Losers 9 - 11 1.3 Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who is the Winner? 12 - 15 1.4 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! 16 - 18 1.5 Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! 19 - 21 1.6 Insiders also on Net Buy! 22 - 23 1.7 ETFs Still Small but on the Rise! 24 - 26 1.8 Investors’ preference switched to Bonds 27 - 31 2 2020 Market Outlook 32 - 47 2.1 Market Valuation Looks Attractive! 33 - 36 2.1 But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 37 - 41 2.3 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group 42 - 44 2.4 A View on Market in 2020! 45 - 50 About FiinGroup 51 - 59
  23. 23. 23Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Insiders also on Net Buy! Nguồn: FiinPro Platform Notes: HOSE, HNX & UPCoM  SBT had internal shareholders bought at most. Internal shareholders net bought 80 million shares from early Sept to mid-Oct 2019 during which SBT shares bounced back 13.3%.  ROS and ACB shares were net sold by internal shareholders at most. Trading by internal shareholders was mostly seen in Food & Beverages, Real Estate and Construction & Materials. Figure 13: Top 10 internal shareholders’ trading by sectors by volume 137.8 (38.3) (26.8) (20.1) (13.8) (9.3) 7.4 16.0 50.8 72.6 111.3 Total Construction & Materials Banks Industrial Goods & Services Travel & Leisure Automobiles & Parts Utilities Financial Services Basic Resources Real Estate Food & Beverage
  24. 24. 24Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Table of Contents Content Page Preface 3 1 Vietnam Stock Market 2019: Data Analytics Perspective 6 - 31 1.1 Liquidity Drained! 6 - 8 1.2 Top Gainers and Losers 9 - 11 1.3 Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who is the Winner? 12 - 15 1.4 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! 16 - 18 1.5 Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! 19 - 21 1.6 Insiders also on Net Buy! 22 – 23 1.7 ETFs Still Small but on the Rise! 24 - 26 1.8 Investors’ preference switched to Bonds 27 - 31 2 2020 Market Outlook 32 - 47 2.1 Market Valuation Looks Attractive! 33 - 36 2.1 But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 37 - 41 2.3 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group 42 - 44 2.4 A View on Market in 2020! 45 - 50 About FiinGroup 51 - 59
  25. 25. 25Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up ETFs is Still Small but on the Rise! Unit: million USD ETFs increased their assets in Vietnam by US$149.2mn (nearly VND3.5tn) in 2019 (despite net outflows in global markets) Figure 15: Vietnam assets value in portfolios of ETFs Source: FiinGroup Notes: Data from 6 biggest ETFs having assets in Vietnam  Taking advantage of not being subject to FOL regulations, two local ETFs (VFMVN30 and SSIAM VNX50) increased their Vietnam portfolios by a combined US$98.9mn in 2019.  Assets in Vietnam by three of the other four ETFs rose US$73mn. iShares MSCI Frontier 100 ETF is the only ETF which cut assets in Vietnam, to US$58.7mn by end-2019 from US$81.4mn a year earlier. 283.0 280.2 436.5 502.9 24.0 7.8 282.97 280.24 271.85 58.69 23.68 7.8 Xtrackers FTSE Vietnam Swap UCITS ETF 1C VFMVN30 VanEck Vectors Vietnam ETF iShares MSCI Frontier 100 ETF Premia MSCI Vietnam ETF SSIAM VNX50 Total NAV (mn US$) Vietnam Assets (mn US$)
  26. 26. 26Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up ETFs continued to buy Real estate ETFs is Still Small but on the Rise! Source: FiinGroup Notes: Data compiled from 6 ETF  Real Estate stocks, led by VIC, VHM, VRE and NVL, were still favored by ETFs, having a combined 36.3% weight in their assets in Vietnam by value.  Food & Beverages, Banking and Basic Resources followed with respective weights of 22%, 14.2% and 6.4%. Figure 16: Top 10 Vietnam stocks held by ETFs Unit: mn USD 136.7 138.0 126.0 74.2 75.5 68.5 70.6 64.3 57.4 23.0 113.7 116.3 81.1 57.4 72.0 39.6 60.1 11.0 48.9 0.0 VIC VNM VHM VRE MSN VCB HPG VJC NVL TCB 2019 2018
  27. 27. 27Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Table of Contents Content Page Preface 3 1 Vietnam Stock Market 2019: Data Analytics Perspective 6 - 31 1.1 Liquidity Drained! 6 - 8 1.2 Top Gainers and Losers 9 - 11 1.3 Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who is the Winner? 12 - 15 1.4 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! 16 - 18 1.5 Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! 19 - 21 1.6 Insiders also on Net Buy! 22 – 23 1.7 ETFs Still Small but on the Rise! 24 – 26 1.8 Investors’ preference switched to Bonds 27 - 31 2 2020 Market Outlook 32 - 47 2.1 Market Valuation Looks Attractive! 33 - 36 2.1 But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 37 - 41 2.3 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group 42 - 44 2.4 A View on Market in 2020! 45 - 50 About FiinGroup 51 - 59
  28. 28. 28Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Investors preferred bonds issued by public companies to new share issues Investor’s preference switched to Bonds Source: FiinPro Platform Notes: Issuance by listed companies on HOSE, HNX, UPCoM 64.6%35.1% 90.9 69.9 29.7 60.4 50.7 74.7 86.6 128.9 187.6 209.0 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.5% 1.7% 1.9% 0 50 100 150 200 Bonds Issue IPO Shares Issue +47.4% +15.9% +48.9% +45.5% +11.4%Unit: trillion VND Investor switched their preference to c-bonds: Listed companies raised VND13tn or around US$5bn via c- bonds. This is attributed to the dwindling market liquidity! Figure 17: Capital mobilization on stock market in 2010-2019  Value of additionally-issued shares grows modestly: The value of additional shares issued on the stock market totaled at VND73.4 trillion or nearly US$3.2bn (+9.2% y/y).  Value of IPOs is tiny: The stock market had just few small IPOs which mobilized over VND600 billion, equivalent to 0.85% of the 2018 value and hitting the lowest level since 2013. IPOs of giant SOEs such as Mobifone, VNPT, Satra have not yet taken place as planned while there was no remarkable IPOs by private companies.
  29. 29. 29Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Table 1: Capital mobilization structure in 2019 Investor’s preference switched to Bonds Source: FiinPro Platform Notes: Capital mobilization value by companies listed on HOSE, HNX, UPCoM Unit: trillion VND Majority of capitals raised through the stock market came from share sales through private offerings and to foreign strategic investors!  The value of VND56.8trillion from private placements was mostly contributed by share sales to foreign strategic investors, including VND20.3tn in BIDV (paid by Hana Bank for a 15% stake); VND17tn in VIC; VND6tn in VCB; VND4tn in BVH and VND3tn in MPC. 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 IPO 1.1 3.7 2.9 0.1 0.7 7.9 6.3 11.5 32.4 73.7 0.6 Bonds Issue 9.0 19.4 7.5 8.7 1.2 7.8 14.4 16.1 40.2 46.7 135.0 Banks - 8.6 - - - - - 7.6 8.3 18.8 99.9 Real Estate 2.0 1.6 1.3 6.3 0.1 3.2 4.4 3.7 19.0 16.3 14.7 Shares Issue 29.1 67.8 59.5 21.0 58.6 35.0 54.0 58.9 56.3 67.2 73.4 Private placement 15.6 25.4 46.0 12.0 40.6 22.5 32.5 40.6 30.0 47.2 56.8 ESOP 0.3 1.5 0.7 0.6 1.3 0.5 1.4 2.2 1.9 3.6 2.6 Issuance for creditors - - - - - - - 0.1 0.3 1.2 0.2 Share auctions 5.4 0.7 0.1 0.2 - 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.2 0.1 0.4 Rights issue 7.9 40.3 12.7 8.1 16.7 11.9 20.0 13.6 21.9 15.1 13.4 Margin loans 22.9 25.2 39.8 47.5 55.2 Total 39.3 90.9 69.9 29.7 60.4 50.7 74.7 86.6 128.9 187.6 209.0
  30. 30. 30Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Investor’s preference switched to Bonds Figure18: Value of c-bonds by sectors Source: FiinPro Platform Notes: C-bonds issued by companies listed on HOSE, HNX & UPCoM, excluding banks Listed companies switched to issue c-bonds, instead of additional shares, to finance growth!  The value of corporate bonds issued by listed companies hit the highest ever level at VND135 trillion in 2019, +209% y/y as a result of Circular No. 22 which increases the high risk ratio in bank loans for real estate projects to 200% from the earlier 150% and lowers the ratio of short-term capital for medium- and long-term loans.  In 2019, the c-bond issue value was equivalent to 13.87% of total loans disbursed by local banks, higher than the ratio of 6.23% in 2018 and 4% in 2017.  If banks were excluded, 42% of bond issuers were real estate companies in 2019, with bond coupon rates popular at 10%-13% per year, or 450-650bps higher than 2018 rates and 100-200bps higher than lending interest rates. This is likely a burden for real estate companies given the current unfavorable market conditions. Real Estate, 41.9% Construction & Materials, 19.6% Financial Services, 15.1% Travel & Leisure, 3.7% Basic Resources, 2.4% Other, 17.3%
  31. 31. 31Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Despite the rising value of c-bonds, financial leverage ratio at listed companies declined in recent two years due to their less borrowing from banks while the quality of their profits and cash flows is deteriorating (see next slides)! Investor’s preference switched to Bonds Figure 19: Financial leverage ratio (Debts/Equity) of listed companies Source: FiinPro Platform Notes: Data is from 1019 listed firms on HOSE, HXN, UPCOM, excluding banks, insurances and data is as of end-Q3/2019 0.65 0.58 0.70 0.63 0.65 0.71 0.72 0.67 0.60 0.54 0.63 0.66 0.61 0.56 0.57 0.73 0.79 0.73 0.73 0.78 0.81 0.79 0.77 0.74 0.73 0.74 0.71 0.69 0.68 0.65 Real Estate Total
  32. 32. Forming market views is challenging to any research and investment institutions We provide some data-evidenced analysis in next pages with a hope to assist your investment view formation process!
  33. 33. Table of Contents Content Page Preface 3 1 Vietnam Stock Market 2019: Data Analytics Perspective 6 - 31 1.1 Liquidity Drained! 6 - 8 1.2 Top Gainers and Losers 9 - 11 1.3 Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who is the Winner? 12 - 15 1.4 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! 16 - 18 1.5 Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! 19 - 21 1.6 Insiders also on Net Buy! 22 – 23 1.7 ETFs Still Small but on the Rise! 24 – 26 1.8 Investors’ preference switched to Bonds 27 – 31 2 2020 Market Outlook 32 – 47 2.1 Market Valuation Looks Attractive! 33 - 36 2.1 But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 37 - 41 2.3 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group 42 - 44 2.4 A View on Market in 2020! 45 - 50 About FiinGroup 51 - 59
  34. 34. 34Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up  This is the most positive factor for the market potential in 2020. However, the key points lies on the quality of corporate’s profit growth in the coming quarters to lure cash flow return. Figure 20: P/E & VN-Index in the last 3 years Market valuation is currently the same level as when VN-Index hovered around 700 in mid-2017 before a strong rebound! Nguồn: FiinPro Platform VN-Index, 741.91 VN-Index, 960.99 P/E , 15.9 P/E , 15.7 15 17 19 21 23 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 P/E VN-Index VN-Index P/E Market Valuation Looks Attractive!
  35. 35. 35Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up  In the last 3 years, P/B reached the peak of 3.4x in mid-April/2018 and then declined to 2.3x by end- 2019, this is also P/B level when VN-Index was at 700 in 2017. Figure 21: P/B & VN-Index in the last 3 years PB tells the same story Source: FiinPro Platform Notes: P/B of companies listed on HOSE Market Valuation Looks Attractive! 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.5 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 VN-Index P/B
  36. 36. 36Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Vietnam stock market is relatively attractive in comparison with other regional peers, especially when the country’s economic growth is considered! Figure 22: P/E & P/B of Vietnam stock market vs. regional peers Market Valuation Looks Attractive! Nguồn: FiinPro Platform, Bloomberg & MSCI  P/E of Vietnam’s stock market stood at 15.7x in 2019, higher than the average P/E of EMs (12.8x), but it was still below its average level in the three preceding years.  Vietnam stocks were more expensive than Sri Lanka and Pakistan, but cheaper than other markets in ASEAN: Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia. 15.7 11.5 13.7 18.9 17.3 19.9 18.3 12.8 Vietnam Sri Lanka Pakistan Thailand Philippines Indonesia Malaysia Emerging Market P/E 2.3 1.0 1.6 1.7 2.8 2.1 1.6 Vietnam Sri Lanka Pakistan Thailand Philippines Indonesia Malaysia P/B
  37. 37. 37Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Table of Contents Content Page Preface 3 1 Vietnam Stock Market 2019: Data Analytics Perspective 6 - 31 1.1 Liquidity Drained! 6 - 8 1.2 Top Gainers and Losers 9 - 11 1.3 Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who is the Winner? 12 - 15 1.4 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! 16 - 18 1.5 Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! 19 - 21 1.6 Insiders also on Net Buy! 22 – 23 1.7 ETFs Still Small but on the Rise! 24 – 26 1.8 Investors’ preference switched to Bonds 27 – 31 2 2020 Market Outlook 32 – 47 2.1 Market Valuation Looks Attractive! 33 - 36 2.1 But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 37 - 41 2.3 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group 42 - 44 2.4 A View on Market in 2020! 45 - 50 About FiinGroup 51 - 59
  38. 38. 38Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Quarterly net revenue and EBITDA growth (YoY) has seen a gradual decline in the last 6 quarters! But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! Figure 25: Net revenue growth & EBITDA growth (YoY) Source: FiinPro Platform Note: - Data based on announcement of 1,047 companies on HOSE, HNX, UPCoM. - EBIT & EBITDA do not include Banking and Insurance. - Only calculate growth when companies announced sufficient data for the same base 13.7% 24.3% 33.5% 32.7% 22.4% 22.6% 19.3% 11.4% 11.4% 14.9% 6.9% 18.4% 9.0% 17.9% 18.1% 16.5% 15.9% 6.5% -1.5% -3.7% 10.8% 6.4% Net Sales Growth (VG inclusive) EBITDA Growth (VG inclusive)
  39. 39. 39Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Although net profit grew by 15.4%, EBIT only rose by 6.2% in Q3/2019 as many companies booked irregular income. But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! Figure 26: Net revenue growth & EBIT growth (YoY) Source: FiinPro Platform Note: - Data based on announcement of 1,047 companies on HOSE, HNX, UPCoM. - EBIT & EBITDA do not include Banking and Insurance. - Only calculate growth when companies announced sufficient data for the same base 28.2% 28.7% 26.1% 27.4% 32.4% 19.2% 8.3% -0.2% 0.6% 13.2% 15.4% 22.3% 4.2% 22.7% 15.1% 21.5% 22.1% 6.5% -1.4% -7.9% 15.2% 6.2% Net Earnings Growth (VG inclusive) EBIT Growth (VG inclusive) Non-recurring incomes by PHR, MSN, HVN Impacted by Real State & Basic Resource sectors’ decline Non-recurring incomes by GMD, Masan groups Impacted by Steel sector’s decline
  40. 40. 40Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up  Excluding VinGroup, both revenue growth and EBITDA growth showed clearer fall and EBITDA even saw negative growth in Q2 and Q3/2019. The issue becomes clearer when excluding VinGroup companies! Figure 27: Net revenue growth & EBITDA growth (YoY, excluding VinGroup companies) Source: FiinPro Platform Note: - Data based on announcement of 1,047 companies on HOSE, HNX, UPCoM. - EBIT & EBITDA do not include Banking and Insurance. - Only calculate growth when companies announced sufficient data for the same base - VinGroup companies include: VIC, VHM, VRE, SDI, VEF But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 11.4% 22.0% 31.3% 33.0% 18.9% 20.6% 18.7% 10.2% 14.2% 12.0% 5.2% 16.8% 4.5% 14.5% 17.3% 14.5% 13.2% 8.3% 0.2% 1.4% -1.4% -3.9% Net Sales Growth (VG exclusive) EBITDA Growth (VG exclusive)
  41. 41. 41Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up  Similarly, when the VinGroup companies are removed, despite net profit growth, EBIT growth fell by 6.8%. It was the sixth consecutive quarter that EBIT growth slowed down or declined. Figure 28: Net revenue growth & EBIT growth (YoY, excluding VinGroup companies) Source: FiinPro Platform Note: - Data based on announcement of 1,047 companies on HOSE, HNX, UPCoM. - EBIT & EBITDA do not include Banking and Insurance. - Only calculate growth when companies announced sufficient data for 2 periods. - VinGroup companies include: VIC, VHM, VRE, SDI, VEF The issue becomes clearer when excluding VinGroup companies! But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 30.7% 30.9% 23.0% 29.0% 26.2% 20.2% 7.9% -4.5% 1.6% 4.5% 14.3% 22.4% -3.4% 18.0% 13.2% 16.9% 20.1% 9.3% 2.2% 0.2% -0.5% -6.8% Net Earnings Growth (VG exclusive) EBIT Growth (VG exclusive)
  42. 42. 42Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Table of Contents Content Page Preface 3 1 Vietnam Stock Market 2019: Data Analytics Perspective 6 - 31 1.1 Liquidity Drained! 6 - 8 1.2 Top Gainers and Losers 9 - 11 1.3 Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who is the Winner? 12 - 15 1.4 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! 16 - 18 1.5 Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! 19 - 21 1.6 Insiders also on Net Buy! 22 – 23 1.7 ETFs Still Small but on the Rise! 24 – 26 1.8 Investors’ preference switched to Bonds 27 – 31 2 2020 Market Outlook 32 – 47 2.1 Market Valuation Looks Attractive! 33 - 36 2.1 But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 37 – 41 2.3 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group 42 - 44 2.4 A View on Market in 2020! 45 - 50 About FiinGroup 51 - 59
  43. 43. 43Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Our calculation shows that VN30 group (accounting for 80% of VN-Index’s market cap) is forecasted to have an EPS growth of only about 5.4%! 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group Source: FiinPro Platform Figure 27: Forecast of EPS growth (adjusted) of VN30 group  The calculation was based on analysis reports of the securities companies and business plans announced by companies through 2019 AGMs with adjustment in number of outstanding shares to eliminate the impact of issuances to increase capital.  Analysts forecast that the VN30's EPS will increase by 5.4%, growing significantly slower than previous years, while according to companies’ plans, this figure is even -2.1%. 2,539.6 2,927.5 3,208.7 3,381.5 3,169.2 15.3% 9.6% 5.4% -1.2% -11% -6% -1% 4% 9% 14% 19% 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 Analysts consensus Management est. 2016 2017 2018 2019 2019 EPS EPS growth
  44. 44. 44Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group Source: FiinPro Platform Note: * For banks, this is total operating income. Data from consensus of securities companies, VCB, CTG, BID, MBB and HDB are the 2019 interim earnings results Table 2: Estimated earnings & EPS growth of VN30 group in 2019 No Ticker Price 2019 Price Mkt Cap 2019 Est. 2019 Est. 9M2019 9M2019 2019 Est. TTM Q3/2019 Div Yid 2019 EPS 2019 Grth31/12/19 Change 31/12/19 Revenue (*) EAT EAT % Mgt. Plan EAT Grth P/E P/B ROE VND'000 (%) (VNDbn) (VNDbn) (VNDbn) (VNDbn) % % (x) (x) (%) (%) (%) 1 VIC 115.00 20.7% 387,386.2 140,000.0 6,500.0 4,112.4 63.3% 5.0% 84.47 5.04 4.0% 67.7% 2 VCB 90.20 70.1% 334,540.7 42,701.0 18,573.8 14,127.3 88.3% 27.0% 17.12 4.11 26.3% 0.9% 27.2% 3 VHM 84.80 16.9% 278,950.8 53,191.3 21,105.0 17,347.7 84.2% 42.8% 15.79 5.19 31.9% -2.1% 4 VNM 116.50 0.7% 202,870.5 56,168.4 10,764.5 8,377.9 79.9% 5.5% 19.00 7.44 38.2% 4.3% -6.6% 5 BID 46.15 38.8% 185,616.1 46,567.0 8,643.2 5,645.1 68.5% 14.6% 22.54 2.42 12.6% 1.5% 17.5% 6 GAS 93.70 12.9% 179,337.1 75,652.3 12,918.5 9,060.5 118.5% 10.3% 14.75 3.94 26.0% 3.2% 12.8% 7 SAB 228.00 -14.3% 146,212.1 39,362.0 5,136.5 4,279.3 90.1% 16.7% 29.79 8.18 27.7% 23.0% 8 TCB 23.55 -8.9% 82,428.3 19,860.0 11,736.0 7,107.4 75.6% 38.5% 8.86 1.40 16.8% -53.8% 9 CTG 20.90 8.3% 77,819.2 35,076.0 9,287.8 6,824.5 89.8% 71.5% 12.72 1.05 8.6% 71.6% 10 VRE 34.00 25.5% 77,258.8 9,495.0 2,745.0 1,968.3 72.9% 13.7% 29.06 2.76 9.4% -3.3% 11 VJC 146.20 22.9% 76,585.2 60,470.5 5,660.0 3,680.5 74.0% 6.1% 15.13 5.16 34.9% 7.3% 12 MSN 56.50 -27.1% 66,045.5 36,834.0 5,525.0 4,616.4 83.9% -1.7% 12.55 1.96 14.6% 11.8% 13 HPG 23.50 -1.3% 64,885.2 63,079.3 7,352.7 5,654.9 84.4% -14.5% 8.82 1.41 17.0% 8.5% -34.0% 14 NVL 59.50 -7.3% 57,687.7 18,539.0 3,275.0 1,074.0 32.5% 0.2% 18.74 2.78 13.8% -12.1% 15 BVH 68.60 -21.9% 50,923.3 34,403.5 1,283.6 1,036.5 96.0% 10.3% 39.38 2.59 7.7% 1.5% 14.0% 16 MWG 114.00 33.3% 50,466.7 104,173.5 3,863.0 2,976.2 83.3% 34.1% 13.68 4.47 36.0% 28.5% 17 VPB 20.00 0.3% 48,755.0 35,460.7 8,173.2 5,753.8 75.7% 11.1% 5.87 1.20 21.9% -1.4% 18 MBB 20.80 18.6% 48,374.1 23,947.0 8,077.3 6,142.1 80.3% 30.5% 6.52 1.33 20.6% 14.7% 19 FPT 58.30 58.1% 39,543.5 28,080.7 3,359.0 2,939.8 82.4% 3.9% 12.47 2.91 20.3% 3.4% 16.0% 20 HDB 27.55 -9.1% 27,026.5 11,947.0 4,021.3 2,764.0 68.1% 25.6% 8.28 1.49 17.9% 41.5% 21 EIB 17.80 26.7% 21,883.9 4,469.0 772.0 882.4 102.4% 16.9% 34.42 1.39 4.1% 16.3% 22 PNJ 86.00 24.6% 19,366.2 16,702.8 1,158.0 805.9 54.5% 20.6% 17.82 4.64 26.8% 2.1% -16.3% 23 STB 10.05 -15.9% 18,126.7 14,236.0 2,470.7 1,923.3 92.2% 38.0% 6.52 0.69 10.9% 32.0% 24 REE 36.30 24.1% 11,254.8 5,577.0 1,545.0 1,242.2 85.3% -18.0% 6.47 1.13 17.2% 4.4% -13.4% 25 SBT 18.50 -3.5% 11,254.5 11,170.0 399.0 292.8 53.8% 38.5% 35.86 1.59 4.4% 26.3% 26 ROS 17.30 -55.3% 9,819.4 4,940.2 169.5 76.4 23.9% -8.4% 57.92 1.65 2.9% -24.2% 27 SSI 18.05 -29.2% 9,170.4 2,964.0 925.0 687.1 78.1% -29.0% 10.54 0.95 9.2% -30.5% 28 GMD 23.30 -5.6% 6,918.4 2,765.3 600.0 547.1 98.4% -68.4% 11.43 1.11 9.0% -68.1% 29 DPM 12.95 -38.8% 5,067.8 7,678.6 300.3 151.8 89.3% -57.9% 17.32 0.65 3.6% 7.7% -57.1% 30 CTD 51.30 -66.9% 3,913.8 22,922.5 689.0 477.6 36.7% -54.4% 4.94 0.48 9.8% 5.8% -54.8% Total VN30 1,028,433.3 167,028.7 122,575.3 80.9% 16.2% 17.15 2.98 20.5% 5.4% Average 34,281.1 5,567.6 4,085.8 76.9% 7.6% 19.96 2.70 16.8% 1.7% Trim Mean 34,281.1 5,567.6 4,085.8 76.9% 7.6% 19.96 2.70 16.8% 1.7% Median 26,013.8 3,942.1 2,958.0 81.4% 10.7% 14.94 1.81 15.7% 9.6%
  45. 45. 45Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Table of Contents Content Page Preface 3 1 Vietnam Stock Market 2019: Data Analytics Perspective 6 - 31 1.1 Liquidity Drained! 6 - 8 1.2 Top Gainers and Losers 9 - 11 1.3 Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who is the Winner? 12 - 15 1.4 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! 16 - 18 1.5 Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! 19 - 21 1.6 Insiders also on Net Buy! 22 – 23 1.7 ETFs Still Small but on the Rise! 24 – 26 1.8 Investors’ preference switched to Bonds 27 – 31 2 2020 Market Outlook 32 – 47 2.1 Market Valuation Looks Attractive! 33 - 36 2.1 But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 37 – 41 2.3 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group 42 – 44 2.4 A View on Market in 2020! 45 - 50 About FiinGroup 51 - 59
  46. 46. The future of the VN-Index, in our own opinion, is a direct function of cash flows from two main investor groups: foreign investors (mainly institutions) and domestic investors (mainly individuals)
  47. 47. Drivers of stock market in 2020! Driver Data Analysis Rating 1 Foreign fund flows • The main drivers for the uptrend momentum and liquidity of VN-Index in previous years were the foreign capital inflow and behavior of domestic investors. Because the market is a "zero-sum game", liquidity rises, or the market has an opportunity to increase when the demand from foreign investors is higher than the available supply by domestic investors. • In 2019, new cash flows into the stock market were very limited. This was a key factor leading to liquidity slump and VN-Index growth of only 7.7% with low volatility. • Data shows that, basically, the Index tends to rise whenever foreigners net buy and vice versa, especially when we look at monthly correlation! • In 2019, they net bought only VND7.3 trillion (about US$310 million) on all 3 exchanges. Excluding VIC, net buying fell to only VND2.3 trillion. This was a very small number compared to VND28.4 trillion in net buying in 2017 and VND43.3 trillion in 2018. • Given US$2.7 billion FII flowing in Vietnam in 2019, we can see that foreign capital mainly flowed into government bonds, corporate bonds, strategic capital investment or M&A. Certainly, capital flowed into unlisted businesses rather than buying shares on exchanges. • Besides, despite the downtrend of the ETF model in the international market, in Vietnam, another source of foreign capital is from ETFs. In 2019, the size of the 6 funds we track increased by about US$149 million. • The macroeconomic context and the exchange rate are considered very stable by independent domestic and foreign research organizations. Working with many big investors interested in Vietnam's stock market, we believe that FII will continue to increase this year and the interest will shift gradually from the bond channel to the stock market. • Moreover, if we follow margin by Korean securities companies with their capital raising plan, we will see new money for market this year. • ETF will likely continue to thrive in 2020, especially the upgrading story of Vietnam stock market can be realized in the coming year and thus attracting higher proportion of capital allocation by emerging market-focused funds when Vietnam reaches this status. • Although it may not be large, it is likely that a part of the cash flow into Vietnamese stocks in 20202 ahead of Emerging market upgrade. • However, the bottom line, according to many large investment funds who are our customers, is that the market must have more quality goods, especially from equitization of attractive SOEs and IPOs of large private enterprises. The reason is that the level of foreign ownership in the stock market now is very high, especially on HOSE and therefore the market needs new and quality goods. POSITIVE
  48. 48. Drivers of stock market in 2020! Driver Data Analysis Rating 2 Domestic fund flow • Domestic cash flow includes direct cash flow and indirect cash flow! • The direct cash flow is (i) the ability to transfer money from cash or savings to securities channels and (ii) the possibility of moving from alternative investment channels such as real estate and more recently corporate bonds as we have pointed out. • The indirect cash flow is credit growth or M2. Currently, credit is still tight with the growth limit of about 14%, mainly due to consumer and retail loan growth. According to our calculation, excluding credit growth for individuals (most home loans), credit growth for the business sector would grow by only 7- 8% in the past 2 years. • For business sector, this growth is very low in our opinion. Certainly, many businesses have chosen bond channels and if including the amount of capital mobilized through bond channels, the total debt growth of businesses is about 10%. • Cash flow from savings: The shift from term deposits (with interest rate of 7% for 1-year term), certificates of deposit (about 9%) and corporate bonds (equal to term deposit rate +4%, meaning about 11%) is a challenge for the securities channel. However, given the current performance of banks and money market movements (interbank interest rates and government bonds), we expect interest rates to fall by 50 to 100 basis points, in line with operating direction of the Government and the State Bank of Vietnam. • Cash flow from certificates of deposits: Certificates of deposits of consumer finance companies with quite attractive interest rates at 9-11% have increased sharply over the past years to meet their very high average growth. However, our data indicate that this capital mobilization channel has cooled down after a fairly hot growing period. • Cash flow from bonds: Bonds of public companies alone attracted more than VND135 trillion in 2019. With regulations tending to tighten this investment channel to ensure sustainable development as well as some businesses having liquidity problems with condotel mobilization products, we believe that investors are more aware of the risks of corporate bonds and similar forms of capital mobilization like condotel. DIFFICULT TO FORECAST
  49. 49. Drivers of stock market in 2020! Driver Data Analysis Rating 3 Quality stock supply • To attract foreign money (offshore and onshore), the key point is that the market must have a new quality supply. Year 2017 and 2018 were typical with series of newly listed stocks such as ACV, TCB, HDB, VHM and Viettel Post. Listing of these stocks created a good supply for not only domestic and foreign investors but also catalyst to facilitate trading of related industries. • As the data indicates, in 2019, the number of large IPOs that attracted the attention of investors was not there! • Looking back at 2019, there were no big and attractive newly listed stocks. Certainly, this is a "chicken and egg" story. In 2020, it is expected some companies will be forced to go listing such as banking stocks. According to the Prime Minister's decision, all banks will have to list their shares on stock market by the end of 2020. • According to our data, there are currently 12 commercial banks with total legal capital of about VND100 trillion, or US$4.2 billion. Assuming these banks are listed at 1.4x P/B (the average of 18 listed banks), the total capitalization will increase by US$5.9 billion. However, we find it difficult for Agribank with charter capital of VND29 trillion to list in 2020 and not 100% of the shares will be free floated. • Regarding supply of stocks from equitization or divestment of state-owned enterprises, we think that 2020 will be pretty quiet as big names expected by domestic and foreign investors like Mobifone, Satra, etc. will unlikely be listed in this pivotal year. NOT POSITIVE
  50. 50. 50Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Drivers of stock market in 2020! Driver Data Analysis Rating 4 Corporate Earnings Prospect and Quality • Corporate earnings i.e. revenues and profits have grown steadily in terms of accounting data. • However, quarterly EBITDA, EBIT and CFO data shows that the quality of corporate profit has been deteriorating which can be seen not only in the leading businesses but also the rest of the market. • The data also indicates that the EPS growth in 2019 is estimated at as low as 5.4%, the lowest in 5 years. Basically, in Vietnam if a company or a sector’s growth is below GDP expansion it means no growth! • Analysts and media all believe that Vietnam has a very good growth potential thanks to the rise of local consumption as well as incomes by middle class. Basically, we are in line with them. • However, when assessing the quality of growth and especially the quality of profit of large businesses as well as non-financial sector, our data gives the opposite opinion, at least in the last 4-6 quarters as shown in this report. • Surprisingly, the "champions" and "proxies" representing Vietnam's "consumption growth" in various popular categories such as Vinamilk (VNM), Mobile World (MWG), Masan (MSN) to emerging stars such as Quang Ngai Sugar (QNS) also had Q3/2019 revenues declining or slowing down compared to the same period in 2018 and declining from Q2/2019 . For MWG, the data also indicates that Same Store Sales Growth (SSSG) continuously declined from 38% to minus 10% in Q3/2019. NEED FURTHER TRACKING AND EVALUATION
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  53. 53. 53Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up FiinGroup (previously StoxPlus) is a Vietnam’s leading provider of financial data, business information, industry research and other data-driven analytics services About FiinGroup JSC FiinGroup Joint Stock Company The group of businesses in information and data analytics Financial Information The Largest and Most Innovative Financial Information Provider Business Information The Largest Most Innovative Business Information Provider Market Research The Most Trusted Independent Research House Comprehensive and In-depth Financial Database & Analytics for analysts and researchers Powerful Trading Information & Analytics Platform for Brokers, Traders and Active Investors API Datafeed Securities Data Solutions to Client’s designated system via XML or API Business Report Report service for risk management, sales leads, partner screening, due diligence and so on Corporate information platform which maps out relationships between companies and persons Industry Report Insightful reports for all key sectors of Vietnam under paid publications ready to use Market Research Customised research at client’s request including data analysis and on-the- ground surveys Market Entry Advisory Experienced and seasoned professionals to support clients expanding market in Vietnam Business Information and Risk Platform for Vietnam Credit Rating Agency* The Most Trusted CRA for both Issuers and Investors * CRA business is yet to introduced by mid 2020
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