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Richard Pearson NFU Profiting from Sustainability Conference York Dec 2014

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Conference Presentation at Profiting from Sustainability in York (UK) Dec 2014

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Richard Pearson NFU Profiting from Sustainability Conference York Dec 2014

  1. 1. Agriculture Looking For A Sustainable Profit Richard Pearson NFU Regional Director December 2014
  2. 2. Population Up
  3. 3. Food Consumption Up
  4. 4. Life Expectancy Up
  5. 5. An industry with growing economic contribution £ million Increasing economic contribution: Gross 2000 2001 2002 2003 Value Added (GVA) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Source: Defa, Agricultural Accounts 2013 • Agriculture’s contribution to the economy as measured by GVA (Gross Value Added) was £9.2 billion. This has grown by £2.3 billion in the five years to 2013 – a 34 per cent increase. • At the same time farm output has grown by 31 per cent, to £25.7 billion. • An impressive performance compared with wider economic picture.
  6. 6. Food and drink exports continues to grow in 2014 Jan-June 2013 (£ bn) Jan-June 2014 (£bn) % change Total Exports 6.2 6.5 4.8 EU 28 4.7 4.8 2.5 Non -EU 1.5 1.7 12 EU% share 75.6 73 -1.7 Non -EU % share 24.5 26.2 1.7 Trade balance -12.6 -12 -4.9 Source: Food and Drink Federation (FDF) Food and non-alcoholic drink exports (£m) £12.8bn 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Exports £m Source: Food and Drink Federation (FDF)
  7. 7. Future Demand Looks Strong What Is The Reality On Farm
  8. 8. Price falls across the board Commodity Prices Oct 2014 Prices Prices a year ago % change y-o-y Dairy (ppl) 30.8 33.0 -6.6% Deadweight Cattle (p/kg) 349.0 391.3 -10.8% Deadweight Sheep (p/kg) 355.2 392.1 -9.4% Deadweight Pigs (p/kg) 152.6 171.9 -11.2% Feed Wheat (£/t) 111.3 160.5 -30.6% Potatoes (£/t) 126.5 160.67 -21.3% Source: AHDB/DairyCo/Bpex/Eblex/HGCA/PCL • 2014 has been the year where across commodities, the industry has seen falling farmgate prices. • A combination of global supply and demand factors and continued intense competition at a retail end has put a downward pressure on beef, dairy and cereal sectors.
  9. 9. It’s all about volatility….
  10. 10. Basket of Commodities 0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0 1/1990 1/1991 1/1992 1/1993 1/1994 1/1995 1/1996 1/1997 1/1998 1/1999 1/2000 1/2001 1/2002 1/2003 1/2004 1/2005 1/2006 1/2007 1/2008 1/2009 1/2010 1/2011 1/2012 1/2013 1/2014 FAO - Food Price Index
  11. 11. UK Feed Wheat 25 230.0 210.0 190.0 0123 1201 2195 2034 170.0 150.0 130.0 110.0 90.0 70.0 50.0 3112 0280 1267 2022 1209 1087 2164 0231 1209 0167 1245 1092 2078 0146 1224 0210 2066 1043 2121 3108 0274 0113 0290 1278 2035 0112 0280 1268 0254 3100 1087 2165 2023 1218 0157 1234 210 2069 0145 1213 1391 0287 1043 Oct ASeupg Juany M MFeabr M Jaonv N AOucgt J M A M Juunl Aparr DFeebc NSeopv Juugl Aapyr Jaanr DOecct ASeupg Juany M FAepbr Jaonv N SOecpt J A M M M J Juunl MMaayr DFeebc NOocvt Juugl Aapyr Jaanr NDoevc ASeupg Juany FAepbr DJaenc SOecpt Juunl MMaayr DFeebc NOocvt A AJupnr Jaanr M Juugl NDoevc ASeupg 2M Jauyl FAepbr DJaenc SOecpt J Juunl MMaayr FJeabn 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
  12. 12. Yorkshire Region
  13. 13. This Region Has • 17% of cereal area • 36% of pig herd • 18% of cattle herd • 27% of sheep flock • Directly employs 41,371 people • Agri Food Manufacturing base • Research / Universities / Colleges
  14. 14. • There is no lack of advice to famers. • Complex challenges ,Conflicting messages • Farm businesses often resource and time poor • Low confidence and high risk • Personal motivation
  15. 15. • Stand still / self sufficiency will fall… • Research, Innovation, Growth • Growing home and global demand… • What potential --- world market player? • Opportunity…
  16. 16. Nothing is Impossible

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