Environmental Change and
Maize Innovation Pathways in Kenya:
Mapping Pathways In and Out of Maize
John Thompson (j.thompso...
Project Focus
• Examine prospects for
‘broadening out’ and
‘opening up’ of
alternative innovation
pathways ‘in and out of
...
narrow inputs
Dominant maize
pathway driving
agricultural R&D
and policy
priorities and
excludes
alternatives
Addressing M...
narrow inputs
Addressing Maize ‘Lock in’:
Narrowing and Closing Down
POSSIBLE
PATHWAYS
GOVERNANCE
COMMITMENTS
SOCIAL
APPRA...
‘opened up’ outputsbroad inputs
POSSIBLE
PATHWAYS
GOVERNANCE
COMMITMENTS
SOCIAL
APPRAISAL
Seeking Alternatives:
Broadening...
A: ENGAGE ACTORS
1: review relevant histories
2: analyse associated
networks
3: snowball salient interests
4: prioritise m...
Activities – 4 Key Stages
1. Engage actors: Interviews with stakeholders engaged in work on
maize R&D, adaptation to clima...
Multi-disciplinary Team
• African Centre for Technology Studies (ACTS) –
African science and technology policy, climate po...
A: ENGAGE ACTORS –
together:
1. review relevant histories
2. analyse associated networks
3. snowball salient interests
4. ...
Engage Actors
• Review relevant histories 
– Literature review  Kenya’s agricultural
(maize) history; environmental chan...
Engage Actors
• Prioritise most marginal  field
studies
– ‘Low potential’ zone (5 villages)
Sakai, Mbooni East District, ...
Main story  Diversification…
Multiple pathways –
Both in and out of maize?
But where is it leading? 
Towards more resili...
B: EXPLORE FRAMINGS
1. review relevant histories
2. elicit notions of systems
3. explore related narratives
4. address Sus...
Scope Key Possible Pathways 
‘In and Out of Maize’
• Fieldwork findings have been distilled into a
set of 9 core pathways...
Typology of Pathways
Low Maize High Maize
Low-
External
Input
High-
External
Input
Typology of Pathways
Low Maize High Maize
Low-
External
Input
High-
External
Input
1 – Alternative dryland
staples for sub...
Differentiate perspectives
• The pathways served as a starting point
for opening up the discussion with
farmers, scientist...
STEPS Methodology –
Stage 3
C CHARACTERISE DYNAMICS:
1. review relevant histories
2. explore challenges/opportunities
3. s...
Multicriteria Mapping (MCM)
• MCM is an interactive, decision analysis
technique that provides a way of appraising a
serie...
Multicriteria Mapping (MCM):
The Interview Process
2. Develop a
set of criteria
5. Reflect on
outcome
1. Discuss
pathways
...
Designs: Multicriteria Mapping (MCM)
and Policy Engagement Process

Groups of Informants
1. Farmers (11 stakeholder groups)
a) Gender
b) Income level
2. Nairobi-based Informants (12 stakehol...
Sets of Criteria:
Macro and Micro Issues
• Economic and Market Issues 71 criteria
– Resource costs 23 criteria
– Availabil...
Evaluating Pathway
‘Performance Rankings’
• Performance rankings are literal ‘maps’ of pathway
scores
• Averaged across gr...
Qualitative Analysis of the
Pathways Evaluations
• Used to identify groups of stakeholders
with shared points of view
• Us...
Pathways Out of Maize: Orphans or Siblings?
Performance rankings for different groups of stakeholders shows a surprising
a...
Pathways in Maize:
Sakai farmer performance rankings show a preference for local maize,
not new maize
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 ...
Pathways in Maize:
Performance rankings for groups of Nairobi-based informants show a
variety of high performing pathways,...
Pathways in Maize: Living in Parallel Worlds?
Performance rankings for different groups of Nairobi-based informants
show a...
STEPS Methodology –
Stage 4
D: REVEAL POLITICAL ACTIONS
1. review relevant histories
2. confirm key protagonists
3. explor...
‘opened up’ outputs
acknowledged plurality
and conditionality
broad inputs
POSSIBLE
PATHWAYS
GOVERNANCE
COMMITMENTS
SOCIAL...
Policy engagement
• National policy workshop
– Involved key policy actors
– Farmer representatives actively engaged
– Pres...
Policy engagement
• Follow up project: ‘Beyond Biosafety’ 
biotechnology regulation in Kenya
• International conferences ...
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Environmental change and maize innovation pathways in Kenya - STEPS Centre Methods case study

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Environmental change and maize innovation pathways in Kenya - STEPS Centre Methods case study

  1. 1. Environmental Change and Maize Innovation Pathways in Kenya: Mapping Pathways In and Out of Maize John Thompson (j.thompson@ids.ac.uk) Food and Agriculture Domain Convenor STEPS Centre – July 2013
  2. 2. Project Focus • Examine prospects for ‘broadening out’ and ‘opening up’ of alternative innovation pathways ‘in and out of maize’ • Assess responses of various actors to rapid environmental, social and technical change
  3. 3. narrow inputs Dominant maize pathway driving agricultural R&D and policy priorities and excludes alternatives Addressing Maize ‘Lock in’: Narrowing and Closing Down POSSIBLE PATHWAYS GOVERNANCE COMMITMENTS SOCIAL APPRAISAL ‘closed down’ outputs
  4. 4. narrow inputs Addressing Maize ‘Lock in’: Narrowing and Closing Down POSSIBLE PATHWAYS GOVERNANCE COMMITMENTS SOCIAL APPRAISAL ‘closed down’ outputs Dominant maize discourse focused on adding a new pathway – DT maize
  5. 5. ‘opened up’ outputsbroad inputs POSSIBLE PATHWAYS GOVERNANCE COMMITMENTS SOCIAL APPRAISAL Seeking Alternatives: Broadening and Opening Up Can the STEPS Pathways Approach help to identify viable agricultural innovation pathways and open up debate about them?
  6. 6. A: ENGAGE ACTORS 1: review relevant histories 2: analyse associated networks 3: snowball salient interests 4: prioritise most marginal 5: examine power relations 6: identify basic pathway visions 7: be alert for hidden plurality 8: seek critical feedback B: EXPLORE FRAMINGS 1: review relevant histories 2: elicit notions of systems 3: explore related narratives 4: address Sustainability values 5: scope key possible pathways 6: review aspects of incertitude 7: differentiate perspectives 8: seek critical feedback D: REVEAL POLITICAL ACTIONS 1: review relevant histories 2: confirm key protagonists 3: explore forms of agency 4: define possible interventions 5: review winners/losers 6: examine possible responses 7: establish accountabilities 8: seek critical feedback C CHARACTERISE DYNAMICS 1: review relevant histories 2: explore challenges/opportuniti 3: scrutinise likely shocks/stresse 4: look at actors’ strength/weakne 5: examine decision/branch point 6: identify winners/losers 7: attend to issues of power/politic 8: seek critical feedback STEPS METHODOLOGY appreciative process: help appreciate alternative pathways APPRECIATE PATHWAYS • The four distinct stages in this process are overlapping and mutually co-constituting • The logical sequence is therefore heuristic. The actual practice is more iterative and recursive • Any ‘broadening out’ or ‘opening up’ of social appreciations of alternative pathways must in some way consider all these stages and tasks and thoroughly address a majority of tasks defined in each stage
  7. 7. Activities – 4 Key Stages 1. Engage actors: Interviews with stakeholders engaged in work on maize R&D, adaptation to climate change, food security, etc 2. Explore framings: particularly their ideas about ‘resilience’, ‘innovation’ and ‘pathways‘ and test concepts in relation to environmental change and maize in Kenya 3. Characterise dynamics: • Phase I – Rapid rural appraisals and panel data comparative studies – 3 sites (low, [medium], high potential agroecozones) • Mapping ‘pathways in and out of maize’ (based on the RRAs and panel studies and key informant interviews) • Phase 2 – Analysing pathways and what facilitates/inhibits access to them in risk-prone areas based on stakeholder criteria (using Multicriteria Mapping - MCM) 4. Reveal strategies: policy engagement and outreach
  8. 8. Multi-disciplinary Team • African Centre for Technology Studies (ACTS) – African science and technology policy, climate policy • Centre for African Bio-Entrepreneurship (CABE) – agricultural biotechnology, seed policy • Tegemeo Institute of Agricultural Policy and Development, Egerton University – agricultural economics, Kenyan agricultural policy, agricultural panel data • Science and Technology Policy Research, University of Sussex (SPRU) – science and technology policy, multi-criteria mapping, STEPS pathways approach • Institute of Development Studies (IDS) – agricultural and environmental policy, rapid appraisal methods, political economy of policy processes, STEPS pathways approach
  9. 9. A: ENGAGE ACTORS – together: 1. review relevant histories 2. analyse associated networks 3. snowball salient interests 4. prioritise most marginal 5. examine power relations 6. identify basic pathway visions 7. be alert for hidden plurality 8. seek critical feedback STEPS Methodology – Stage 1
  10. 10. Engage Actors • Review relevant histories  – Literature review  Kenya’s agricultural (maize) history; environmental change; resilience; maize R&D/innovation – Panel data analysis  agricultural production and socio-economic trends in selected districts and sites – Trends analysis  dynamics of seasonal and long-term change in selected field sites • Analyse associated networks and snowball salient interests  key informants in scientific organisations, government ministries, farmers’ organisations, seed companies, NGOs, donors, others ; feedback
  11. 11. Engage Actors • Prioritise most marginal  field studies – ‘Low potential’ zone (5 villages) Sakai, Mbooni East District, Eastern Province – ‘High potential’ zone (3 villages) Mmbasu, Likuyani Division, Lugari District, Western Province • Rapid rural appraisals + focus group and key informant interviews – Analysed dynamic drivers of change in agricultural systems – Disaggregated communities – gender, wealth, production and marketing strategies
  12. 12. Main story  Diversification… Multiple pathways – Both in and out of maize? But where is it leading?  Towards more resilient livelihoods and agri-food systems? Or are there constraints to pursuing these alternative pathways? Identify Basic Pathway Visions
  13. 13. B: EXPLORE FRAMINGS 1. review relevant histories 2. elicit notions of systems 3. explore related narratives 4. address Sustainability values 5. scope key possible pathways 6. review aspects of incertitude 7. differentiate perspectives 8. seek critical feedback STEPS Methodology – Stage 2
  14. 14. Scope Key Possible Pathways  ‘In and Out of Maize’ • Fieldwork findings have been distilled into a set of 9 core pathways in drought-prone farming regions (e.g. Sakai, Eastern Province): 1. Reliance on internal/external inputs  including local vs. certified seed (OPVs, hybrids, etc.) and their sources (informal vs. formal channels) 2. Reliance on maize as key crop 3. Diversification out of maize  other key crops (‘orphan’ dryland staple crops, horticulture)
  15. 15. Typology of Pathways Low Maize High Maize Low- External Input High- External Input
  16. 16. Typology of Pathways Low Maize High Maize Low- External Input High- External Input 1 – Alternative dryland staples for subsistence 2 – Alternative dryland staples for market 3 – local improvement of local maize 5 – Assisted seed multiplication of maize 4 – Assisted seed multiplication of alternative dryland staples 6 – Individual high-value crop commercialization 7 – Group-based high-value crop commercialization 8 – Commercial delivery of new DT maize varieties 9 – Public delivery of new DT maize varieties
  17. 17. Differentiate perspectives • The pathways served as a starting point for opening up the discussion with farmers, scientists and policy makers on: 1. Range of pathways  analysing ‘pathways in and out of maize’ 2. Discussion about relevant criteria for choosing one pathway over another in such a way as to factor in the cross-scale dynamics and constraints 3. Critical examination of alternative visions of the future and institutional arrangements needed to support them
  18. 18. STEPS Methodology – Stage 3 C CHARACTERISE DYNAMICS: 1. review relevant histories 2. explore challenges/opportunities 3. scrutinise likely shocks/stresses 4. look at actors’ strength/weakness 5. examine decision/branch points 6. identify winners/losers 7. attend to issues of power/politics 8. seek critical feedback
  19. 19. Multicriteria Mapping (MCM) • MCM is an interactive, decision analysis technique that provides a way of appraising a series of different options or pathways • Helps individuals to explain their views about a complex issue in a systematic way • Involves: – developing set of criteria – evaluating the performance of each pathway under each criterion – weighting each criterion according to its relative importance
  20. 20. Multicriteria Mapping (MCM): The Interview Process 2. Develop a set of criteria 5. Reflect on outcome 1. Discuss pathways 3. Score pathways under each criterion; optimistic & pessimistic scores to reflect uncertainty 4. Assign weight to each criterion 
  21. 21. Designs: Multicriteria Mapping (MCM) and Policy Engagement Process 
  22. 22. Groups of Informants 1. Farmers (11 stakeholder groups) a) Gender b) Income level 2. Nairobi-based Informants (12 stakeholder groups) a) Senior government officials b) Commercially oriented c) Science and technology institutes d) Biotechnology focus
  23. 23. Sets of Criteria: Macro and Micro Issues • Economic and Market Issues 71 criteria – Resource costs 23 criteria – Availability and access to resources 30 criteria – Market aspects 18 criteria • Stress Tolerance Issues 43 criteria – Water use 17 criteria – Pests and disease resistance 14 criteria – Suitability of crop to agro-ecological conditions 12 criteria • Social, Political & Cultural Issues 33 criteria – Knowledge and skills 14 criteria – Social and cultural 9 criteria – Food security 10 criteria
  24. 24. Evaluating Pathway ‘Performance Rankings’ • Performance rankings are literal ‘maps’ of pathway scores • Averaged across groups of stakeholders & sets of criteria (issues) • High end of range indicates average optimistic scores • Low end of range indicates average pessimistic scores • Length of range (or bar) indicates uncertainty & ambiguity expressed – Uncertainty is expressed by individuals in a stakeholder group – Ambiguity is the result of disagreement between stakeholders
  25. 25. Qualitative Analysis of the Pathways Evaluations • Used to identify groups of stakeholders with shared points of view • Used to group criteria according to shared themes • Clarifies the reasons for convergence and divergence in the pathways performance rankings
  26. 26. Pathways Out of Maize: Orphans or Siblings? Performance rankings for different groups of stakeholders shows a surprising amount of optimism about alternative dryland staple crops, especially under a set of stress tolerance criteria 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Performance Rankings Alternative staples for subsistence Alternative staples for market Local improvementoflocal maize seed Assisted seed multiplication (alternative crops) Assisted seed multiplication (maize) Individual high-value crop commercialization Group-based high-value crop commercialization Commercial deliveryofnew maize varieties Public deliveryofnew maize varieties Alternative staples for subsistence Alternative staples for market Local improvementoflocal maize seed Assisted seed multiplication (alternative crops) Assisted seed multiplication (maize) Individual high-value crop commercialization Group-based high-value crop commercialization Commercial deliveryofnew maize varieties Public deliveryofnew maize varieties Alternative staples for subsistence Alternative staples for market Local improvementoflocal maize seed Assisted seed multiplication (alternative crops) Assisted seed multiplication (maize) Individual high-value crop commercialization Group-based high-value crop commercialization Commercial deliveryofnew maize varieties Public deliveryofnew maize varieties Sakai Farmers (11 interviews) Stress Tolerance issues (22 criteria) Biotech Focus (5 interviews) Stress tolerance issues (9 criteria) Public sector (3 interviews) Stress tolerance issues (8 criteria)
  27. 27. Pathways in Maize: Sakai farmer performance rankings show a preference for local maize, not new maize 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Performance Rankings Alternative staples for subsistence Alternative staples for market Localimprovement of localmaize seed Assisted seed multiplication (alternative crops) Assisted seed multiplication (maize) Individualhigh-value crop commercialization Group-based high-value crop commercialization Commercialdelivery of new maize varieties Public delivery of new maize varieties Alternative staples for subsistence Alternative staples for market Localimprovement of localmaize seed Assisted seed multiplication (alternative crops) Assisted seed multiplication (maize) Individualhigh-value crop commercialization Group-based high-value crop commercialization Commercialdelivery of new maize varieties Public delivery of new maize varieties Alternative staples for subsistence Alternative staples for market Localimprovement of localmaize seed Assisted seed multiplication (alternative crops) Assisted seed multiplication (maize) Individualhigh-value crop commercialization Group-based high-value crop commercialization Commercialdelivery of new maize varieties Public delivery of new maize varieties SakaiFarmers (all) 11 interviews SakaiFarmers (low income) 3 interviews SakaiFarmers (high income) 8 interviews
  28. 28. Pathways in Maize: Performance rankings for groups of Nairobi-based informants show a variety of high performing pathways, but rarely high maize options 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Performance Rankings Alternative staples for subsistence Alternative staples for market Localimprovement of localmaize seed Assisted seed multiplication (alternative crops) Assisted seed multiplication (maize) Individualhigh-value crop commercialization Group-based high-value crop commercialization Commercialdelivery of new maize varieties Public delivery of new maize varieties Alternative staples for subsistence Alternative staples for market Localimprovement of localmaize seed Assisted seed multiplication (alternative crops) Assisted seed multiplication (maize) Individualhigh-value crop commercialization Group-based high-value crop commercialization Commercialdelivery of new maize varieties Public delivery of new maize varieties Alternative staples for subsistence Alternative staples for market Localimprovement of localmaize seed Assisted seed multiplication (alternative crops) Assisted seed multiplication (maize) Individualhigh-value crop commercialization Group-based high-value crop commercialization Commercialdelivery of new maize varieties Public delivery of new maize varieties Alternative staples for subsistence Alternative staples for market Localimprovement of localmaize seed Assisted seed multiplication (alternative crops) Assisted seed multiplication (maize) Individualhigh-value crop commercialization Group-based high-value crop commercialization Commercialdelivery of new maize varieties Public delivery of new maize varieties S&TInstitutes (5 interviews) Biotech Focus (5 interviews) Commercially Oriented (5 interviews) Public sector officials (3 interviews)
  29. 29. Pathways in Maize: Living in Parallel Worlds? Performance rankings for different groups of Nairobi-based informants show assisted seed pathways are ‘consistent’ performers 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Performance Rankings Alternative staples for subsistence Alternative staples for market Local improvement of local maize seed Assisted seed multiplication (alternative crops) Assisted seed multiplication (maize) Individual high-value crop commercialization Group-based high-value crop commercialization Commercial delivery of new maize varieties Public delivery of new maize varieties Alternative staples for subsistence Alternative staples for market Local improvement of local maize seed Assisted seed multiplication (alternative crops) Assisted seed multiplication (maize) Individual high-value crop commercialization Group-based high-value crop commercialization Commercial delivery of new maize varieties Public delivery of new maize varieties Alternative staples for subsistence Alternative staples for market Local improvement of local maize seed Assisted seed multiplication (alternative crops) Assisted seed multiplication (maize) Individual high-value crop commercialization Group-based high-value crop commercialization Commercial delivery of new maize varieties Public delivery of new maize varieties S&TInstitutes (5 interviews) Biotech Focus (5 interviews) Commercially Oriented (5 interviews)
  30. 30. STEPS Methodology – Stage 4 D: REVEAL POLITICAL ACTIONS 1. review relevant histories 2. confirm key protagonists 3. explore forms of agency 4. define possible interventions 5. review winners/losers 6. examine possible responses 7. establish accountabilities 8. seek critical feedback
  31. 31. ‘opened up’ outputs acknowledged plurality and conditionality broad inputs POSSIBLE PATHWAYS GOVERNANCE COMMITMENTS SOCIAL APPRAISAL Pathways In and Out of Maize Using the STEPS Pathways Approach to foster dialogue and debate and encourage appreciation of alternative pathways APPRECIATE PATHWAYS
  32. 32. Policy engagement • National policy workshop – Involved key policy actors – Farmer representatives actively engaged – Presented STEPS approach, findings and recommendations – Video: ‘Pathways In and Out of Maize’ – Working groups  linked to pathways – Policy issues and options; ‘action points’ for different actors • Key Stakeholder Group meetings – – Climate Change and Arid Lands Group – Seeds and Seed Policy Group – Drought Tolerant Crops and Plant Breeding Group – Rockefeller Foundation Climate Group APPRECIATE PATHWAYS
  33. 33. Policy engagement • Follow up project: ‘Beyond Biosafety’  biotechnology regulation in Kenya • International conferences  environmental change and food systems • Video: ‘Seeds and Sustainability’ • Kenya Agricultural Research Institute  informed ‘National Climate Change and Agriculture Programme’ • Future Agricultures Consortium  informed projects on the ‘Political Economy of Seed Systems’ + ‘Integrated Seed System Development’

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