This is a summary of my senior research and analysis paper. Full paper available on request.

1. Social Ties and Terrorism: Do They Matter?
Stephen Leadholm | Sister Jenson | Brigham Young University-Idaho
Research Question
How does having social ties to a terrorist group, prior to joining,
effect the duration one stays with that group, and why?
Introduction
• Today’s literature concludes that the three major contributing
factors of terrorist involvement are socioeconomic factors, social
networks and social ties, and recruitment.
• If we can’t figure out who would be a terrorist, how do recruiters for
terrorist organizations do so? The answer lies in social networks
and social ties. These have been the biggest predictor of who
would join a terrorist group (Brady, Schlozman, and Verba 1999;
Gates 2002; Hegghammer 2006; Humphreys and Weinstein 2008;
Klandermans and Oegema 1987; McAdam 1986; McAdam and
Paulsen 1993; Medina 2014; Ozeren et al. 2014; Postel 2013;
Siegel 2009; Silke 2008; Snow, Zurcher Jr., and Ekland-Olson
1980; Vertigans 2007; Weinstein 2005).
Theory
• Those who join terrorist groups are usually going through a lack of
identity, normlessness, and rootlessness (Blazak 2001; Mulcahy,
Merrington, and Bell 2013; Postel 2013). These people would be
categorized by Travis Hirschi (1969) as having weak bonds to
important social institutions like family, school, work, norms, and
even activities they could participate in. Due to their weak bonds to
society, they are searching for a group to identify (bond) with in
return for their services. According to Bierstedt (1965), these people
are necessitating the social approval and social acceptance
through interaction with others (reward) and are willing to do what it
takes to obtain and maintain that relationship (cost). This is the
exchange of social rewards.
Discussion
Results
• Linear regression will be used in order to test the strength of the
relationship between recruits through social ties and length of
membership. The final model includes the dependent variable (length
of membership), independent variable (recruitment through social
ties), and all the control variables (gender, type of terrorist group,
race, age, marital status, and education). The focal relationship is no
longer significant in the last model and R2 decreases to 0.68. Gender,
type of terrorism, race, age, and marital status are highly significant at
the .001 level. For gender, males will be members 17.67 months less
than females while domestic terrorists will stay members 23.36
months less than international terrorists. Race’s coefficient stayed
about the same at 42.54 showing that Caucasians will be members
about 42.5 months longer than non-Caucasians. Age shows that for
every one increase on the age scale that person will be a member
9.22 months longer. Finally, married people’s length of membership
will be 31.81 months longer than not married people.
Conclusion
• The findings have revealed that social ties are partially supported to
impact length of membership with a terrorist organization, but that age
and marital status are potentially more important factors impacting
length of membership. Some unexpected findings could have been due
to an inconsistent sample size which also resulted in a lack of
confidence in the end results. With these new insights though, the
findings could be implemented in counter terrorism and strategic
planning for prioritizing target analysis. Social ties are still an important
variable when considering recruitment and length of membership.
Works Cited
Methods
Hypotheses
• Unit of Analysis: Terrorists
• American Terrorism Study, 1980-2002.
• Population: Convicted terrorists in the United States.
• Sample size: 5,364
• Ho: There is not a relationship between recruits through social ties and
length of membership.
• Ha: There is a relationship between recruits through social ties and
length of membership.
• H1: Males recruited through social ties will be members longer.
• H2: Younger recruits through social ties will stay with the group longer.
• H3: Those married will be a member longer than those not married.
Descriptive Tables
• The length of membership for previous social tie recruits were
members on average 35 months longer than those not recruited
through social ties in models 1, 2, 3, and 4, but by model 6 when
marital status is controlled for, those recruited through social ties
are members 7 months less than those not recruited through social
ties. The reason for this drastic change could be coming from the
sample size decreasing by over 300 which changes results and the
pull each variable has on each other.
• It is hard to tell though if model 7 is accurate for education and
social ties because of the loss of about 900 individuals in the
sample size and education not being significant (which could also
be due to the decrease in sample size).
• For H1 males on average stayed members 17.5 months less than
females by model 7 when all variables were controlled for. This
finding was extremely unpredicted but could be due to the sample
size being about 95% male and 5% female. Regardless, males
make up the majority of terrorists and so this sample size is
accurate for that time period of those involved.
• In H2 it was found that for every one increase in the age range, a
person would stay roughly 9 months longer. The older the person
is, the longer they would be a member which was a surprise. This
could be because even though most terrorists were between the
ages of younger than 25 to 45, those 46 and above were mostly
members for 98 months or more while those 45 and below were
spread out in membership ranging from 2 months to 98 months or
more. This finding dispels and also supports the common notion
that terrorists ‘age’ out. The finding supports that few members are
older (saying that the younger ages ‘age’ out) but also that the older
you are the longer you will stay with the group.
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