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National Park Population Projections for
Wales (2014-based):
Principal projection
Key points
What are Population Projections?
• Provide an estimate of the size of the future
population, not forecasts.
• Calculated based on assumptions about:
- Births,
- Deaths,
- Migration.
• Assumptions generally based on recent trends.
National Parks
in Wales have;
20% of the area
but
only 2.6% of the
population.
Overall population residing in National
Parks is projected to
DECREASE between 2014 and 2029
SnowdoniaBrecon Beacons Pembrokeshire
+2%
-7%
-12%
23,790
19,890
34,220
25,480
22,690
33,580
Snowdonia
Pembrokeshire Coast
Brecon Beacons
2014 2029
Whilst the population of national parks is
projected to DECREASE the older
population is projected to INCREASE
60
-600
-240
-2,560
-3,100
-2,940
3,140
900
1,490
Under 16
16-64
65+
Brecon
Beacons
Pembrokeshire
Coast
Snowdonia
The number of DEATHS are projected
to be HIGHER than BIRTHS resulting in
negative natural change over the
projection period.
Year Population
2014-15 Births 660
Deaths 890 - 230
2021-22 Births 660
Deaths 920 - 260
2028-29 Births 590
Deaths 990 - 400
Projected net migration between 2014
and 2029 expected to be between
-60 and +150.
More people are expected to move to the Brecon Beacons than
leave the area; for the Pembrokeshire Coast and Snowdonia
more people are expected to leave the area than move in.
0
60 MORE
OUT
150 MORE
IN
Pembrokeshire
50 MORE
OUT
Snowdonia
Brecon
Beacons
Number of people LEAVING Welsh
National Parks is projected to be HIGHER
than the number moving IN.
What can population projections be used for?
• Planning services at national and local level,
• Preparation of Local Development Plans;
• Local Government Finance revenue settlement;
• Identifying trends for future policy development
• Calculation of other statistics: e.g. Survey weights
Geographic profiles/comparisons.
What can’t population
projections be used for?
• Do not attempt to predict future government
policies, economic circumstances or other factors
effect on demographic behaviour.
• Projections are for national parks and not to give
Wales level projections.
The full release is available on the
Statistics for Wales website

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National park population projections for Wales (2014 based)

  • 1. National Park Population Projections for Wales (2014-based): Principal projection Key points
  • 2. What are Population Projections? • Provide an estimate of the size of the future population, not forecasts. • Calculated based on assumptions about: - Births, - Deaths, - Migration. • Assumptions generally based on recent trends.
  • 3. National Parks in Wales have; 20% of the area but only 2.6% of the population.
  • 4. Overall population residing in National Parks is projected to DECREASE between 2014 and 2029 SnowdoniaBrecon Beacons Pembrokeshire +2% -7% -12% 23,790 19,890 34,220 25,480 22,690 33,580 Snowdonia Pembrokeshire Coast Brecon Beacons 2014 2029
  • 5. Whilst the population of national parks is projected to DECREASE the older population is projected to INCREASE 60 -600 -240 -2,560 -3,100 -2,940 3,140 900 1,490 Under 16 16-64 65+ Brecon Beacons Pembrokeshire Coast Snowdonia
  • 6. The number of DEATHS are projected to be HIGHER than BIRTHS resulting in negative natural change over the projection period. Year Population 2014-15 Births 660 Deaths 890 - 230 2021-22 Births 660 Deaths 920 - 260 2028-29 Births 590 Deaths 990 - 400
  • 7. Projected net migration between 2014 and 2029 expected to be between -60 and +150. More people are expected to move to the Brecon Beacons than leave the area; for the Pembrokeshire Coast and Snowdonia more people are expected to leave the area than move in. 0 60 MORE OUT 150 MORE IN Pembrokeshire 50 MORE OUT Snowdonia Brecon Beacons Number of people LEAVING Welsh National Parks is projected to be HIGHER than the number moving IN.
  • 8. What can population projections be used for? • Planning services at national and local level, • Preparation of Local Development Plans; • Local Government Finance revenue settlement; • Identifying trends for future policy development • Calculation of other statistics: e.g. Survey weights Geographic profiles/comparisons.
  • 9. What can’t population projections be used for? • Do not attempt to predict future government policies, economic circumstances or other factors effect on demographic behaviour. • Projections are for national parks and not to give Wales level projections.
  • 10. The full release is available on the Statistics for Wales website