Utah’s Demographic Transformation
A View into the Future


Pamela S. Perlich, Ph.D. – University Of Utah
December 3, 2009
...
Utah: Trend Toward Nation
                            Total Fertility Rates
5.0



3.8
      4.3
                         ...
Utah: Trend Toward Nation
                              Household Size
 6


      5.17                                    ...
Utah: Trend Toward Nation
                               Median Age
37.0
                                                 ...
Utah: Trend Toward Nation
                              Minority Share
40%
                                               ...
U.S. Population Growth: 1900-2005
                             3%
                                     High Immigration,  ...
U.S. Population by Region: 1900-2030
                      150
                                          South
           ...
Utah: Net Migration, Natural
     Increase, and Population Change
               5%
                                      ...
Utah and U.S. Annual Births
                                                                                              ...
Utah School Age Population:
   Historical & Projected
   900,000
                                     High Economic Growth...
Utah Population 18-24 Years Old:
 Historical & Projected
500,000
                            18-24: High Economic Growth, ...
U.S. Foreign Born Population:
                            1900–2008
                                         20%          ...
Utah Foreign Born Population:
                           1900–2008
                                         20%   19.4%   ...
Top Occupations of Utah’s Foreign Born

   Assemblers & Fabricators    Laborers / Material Movers,

            Cooks     ...
Top Occupations Concentration Ratios
of Utah’s Foreign Born
        Medical Scientists        Maids and Housekeepers

   P...
Utah Educational Attainment by Nativity:
Males 25 Years and Older (2000)
                                                 ...
Utah Educational Attainment by Nativity:
Females 25 Years and Older (2000)
                                               ...
Utah’s Foreign Born Population: 1900 v. 2007


                               Northern America
                           ...
Minority Share of the Population:
 U.S., State of Utah, Salt Lake County
60%
                                             ...
Minority Share by Age Group:
Utah and Salt Lake County – 2008
0.4
                                                        ...
U.S. Minority Share by Age Group:
2010-2050
 70%
                                62%
                                     ...
Minority Contribution to Utah Population and
School Enrollment Growth: 2000 to 2007

      Population Growth      Enrollme...
Educational Transition Points

      100 Latina/o                                        100 White Elementary
  Elementary...
Selected Age Group Projections
 for State of Utah
1,200,000
                   Less than 5 years old                      ...
Selected Age Group Projections
for State of U.S.
120,000,000
                     Less than 5 years old   5 through 17 yea...
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Utah’s Demographic Transformation A View into the Future

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Utah’s Demographic Transformation
A View into the Future, Presentation by Pam Perlich, Bureau of Economic and Business Research

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Utah’s Demographic Transformation A View into the Future

  1. 1. Utah’s Demographic Transformation A View into the Future Pamela S. Perlich, Ph.D. – University Of Utah December 3, 2009 Based on a paper with the same title, available on-line: www.bebr.utah.edu
  2. 2. Utah: Trend Toward Nation Total Fertility Rates 5.0 3.8 4.3 3.6 2.5 2.5 2.1 1.3 0 Utah U.S. 1960 2006
  3. 3. Utah: Trend Toward Nation Household Size 6 5.17 5.27 4.5 3 3.15 2.62 1.5 0 Utah U.S. 1900 2008
  4. 4. Utah: Trend Toward Nation Median Age 37.0 36.8 35.3 32.8 28.5 28.7 27.1 24.3 20.0 Utah U.S. 2000 2008
  5. 5. Utah: Trend Toward Nation Minority Share 40% 34.4% 30% 20% 18.3% 11.4% 10% 1.9% 0% Utah U.S. 1960 2008
  6. 6. U.S. Population Growth: 1900-2005 3% High Immigration, Immigration High Fertility Restrictions 2.4% Baby Boom Annual Percentage Change 1.8% Moderate Immigration, Low Fertility 1.2% 0.6% Flu Epidemic Great and WWI Depression 0% Growth Rate -0.6% 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
  7. 7. U.S. Population by Region: 1900-2030 150 South Midwest 120 Northeast West Millions of Persons 90 60 30 0 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 1995; 2000; 2005.
  8. 8. Utah: Net Migration, Natural Increase, and Population Change 5% Natural Increase 4% Net Migration Population Change 3% Annual Rates 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Source: BEBR, University of Utah Analysis of UPEC data.
  9. 9. Utah and U.S. Annual Births 2008 US Births U.S. Boom U.S. Echo Exceed 1957 Peak: 1957 Peak: 1990 70 5.0 Utah Births (thousands) 53 3.8 US Births (Millions) 35 2.5 Utah Echo Echo Peak: 2010?? 18 1.3 Utah Echo Peak: Utah Boom 1980-2 Peak: 1962 0 0 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Utah US
  10. 10. Utah School Age Population: Historical & Projected 900,000 High Economic Growth and Fertility 2002 Baseline Low Economic Growth and Fertility 2005 GOPB Baseline 750,000 600,000 450,000 300,000 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: Perlich and Reeve, “The Coming Boom in Utah’s School Age and College Age Populations,” Utah Economic and Business Review, 2002. BEBR analysis of data from the Utah Population Estimates Committee. Births updated 2/2008. 10
  11. 11. Utah Population 18-24 Years Old: Historical & Projected 500,000 18-24: High Economic Growth, High Fertility 18-24: Baseline 18-24: Low Economic Growth, Low Fertility Cumulative Births 18-24 years prior Bureau of Census 2005 400,000 GOPB 2005 300,000 Age wave hits 200,000 college ages 2016 - 2025 100,000 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: Perlich and Reeve, “The Coming Boom in Utah’s School Age and College Age Populations,” Utah Economic and Business Review, 2002. BEBR analysis of data from the Utah Population Estimates Committee. Births updated 2/2008.
  12. 12. U.S. Foreign Born Population: 1900–2008 20% 38.1 40 Foreign Born Share of Total Population Share Millions Number of Foreign Born (Millions) 14.7% 15% 30 12.6% 10% 20 5% 10 0% 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2008 Sources: Bureau of the Census (decennial Censuses and 2007 American Community Survey), Pew Hispanic Center, BEBR Calculations.
  13. 13. Utah Foreign Born Population: 1900–2008 20% 19.4% 250 226,440 17.6% Foreign Born Share of Total Population Number of Foreign Born (Thousands) Share Number 200 15% 13.1% 150 10% 9.5% 8.3% 7.1% 100 6% 5% 4.3% 3.6% 3.5% 3.4% 50 2.8% 0% 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2008 Sources: Bureau of the Census (decennial Censuses and 2007 American Community Survey), Pew Hispanic Center, BEBR Calculations.
  14. 14. Top Occupations of Utah’s Foreign Born Assemblers & Fabricators Laborers / Material Movers, Cooks Retail Salespersons Maids/Housekeeping Customer Service Rep. Construction Laborers Waiters and Waitresses Janitors Truck Drivers Production Workers Carpenters Cashiers Post-secondary Teachers Grounds Maintenance Workers Misc. Agricultural Workers Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Census 2000, 5% PUMS.
  15. 15. Top Occupations Concentration Ratios of Utah’s Foreign Born Medical Scientists Maids and Housekeepers Packaging Machine Operators Fence Erectors Plasterers & Stucco Masons Sewing Machine Operators Chefs and Head Cooks Misc. Assemblers Misc. Media Workers Woodworking Mach. Ops. Grinding, etc. Machine Ops. Astronomers & Physicists Dishwashers Drywall Installers Baggage Porters Dancers & Choreographers Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Census 2000, 5% PUMS.
  16. 16. Utah Educational Attainment by Nativity: Males 25 Years and Older (2000) 30% 31% College Graduate or Greater 22% 28% 18% 87% 90% High School or Greater 62% 75% 55% Total 13% Native Born 10% Less than High School 38% Foreign Born 25% Naturalized 46% Not a Citizen Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research - Analysis of Census 2000, 5% PUMS 0% 23% 45% 68% 90%
  17. 17. Utah Educational Attainment by Nativity: Females 25 Years and Older (2000) 22% 22% College Graduate or Greater 21% 21% 21% 88% 90% High School or Greater 67% 78% 60% Total 12% Native Born 10% Less than High School 33% Foreign Born 22% Naturalized 40% Not a Citizen Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research - Analysis of Census 2000, 5% PUMS 0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
  18. 18. Utah’s Foreign Born Population: 1900 v. 2007 Northern America 5% Africa Oceania 2% Europe 3% 95% Europe 11% Latin America 63% Asia Asia 18% 2.5% Northern America 2.5% 2007 1900
  19. 19. Minority Share of the Population: U.S., State of Utah, Salt Lake County 60% 54% 49% 48% 45% US 40% 41% Salt Lake 37% 36% State of Utah 34% 35% 34% 31% 32% 27% 24% 24% 30% 24% 20% 27% 19% 25% 17% 22% 12% 11% 10% 10% 10% 11% 11% 10% 18.3%19% 12% 8% 15% 5% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 8% 9% 6% 0% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2010 2030 2050 Sources: Bureau of the Census, Gibson and Jung (2002), Perlich (2002), BEBR
  20. 20. Minority Share by Age Group: Utah and Salt Lake County – 2008 0.4 Salt Lake County 34.7% 33.5% Utah 29.9% 30.1% 2008 Average State Share 0.3 27.9% 26.6% 26% 25.4% 24.5% 24.7% 22.3% 22.6% 22.3% 21.8% 19.6% 19.5% 19.5% 0.2 18.3% 18.3% 16.1% 16.2% 15.3% 13.9% 12.8% 13.2% 12.7% 12.5% 11.1% 11.2% 9.8% 10.3% 9.5% 0.1 9.1% 8.4% 7.5% 7% 6.7% 0 <5 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80-84 Sources: Bureau of the Census, 2008 Population Estimates.
  21. 21. U.S. Minority Share by Age Group: 2010-2050 70% 62% 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 58% 54% 55% 52.5% 49% 50% 45% 46% 42% 40% 35% 35% 35% 29% 24% 20% 17.5% 0% Under 18 18 through 64 65 years and Older Source: Bureau of the Census.
  22. 22. Minority Contribution to Utah Population and School Enrollment Growth: 2000 to 2007 Population Growth Enrollment Growth White Non-Hispanic Minority 35% 33% White Non-Hispanic 67% Minority 65%
  23. 23. Educational Transition Points 100 Latina/o 100 White Elementary Elementary Students Students 40 High School Graduates 84 High School Graduates 4 College Graduates 26 College Graduates 1 Graduate School 10 Graduate School Completion Completion <1 Doctorate 1 Doctorate Source: Octavio Villalpando, University of Utah
  24. 24. Selected Age Group Projections for State of Utah 1,200,000 Less than 5 years old 1,133,594 5 through 17 years old 60 years and older 60+ > 5-17 998,411 960,000 65 years and older 899,392 85+ 720,000 480,000 422,550 240,000 177,255 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
  25. 25. Selected Age Group Projections for State of U.S. 120,000,000 Less than 5 years old 5 through 17 years old 60 years and older 65 years and older 85+ 96,000,000 2009: 60+ > 5-17 72,000,000 53,159,113 48,000,000 35,107,491 24,000,000 19,197,434 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2046

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