May/June 2010

                         Perspectives on Utah’s Economy

                    Job Outlook for
                        is published every other month by th...
May/June 2010

wasatch front and statewide | by mark knold, chief economist

         Utah's 2009 Economic
More recent employment data
                   shows a greater job loss than
                    originally calculated in ...
the outlook | by lecia parks langston, economist

   Cool Tips                                       I  f you’re a teen...
Finally, I thought I’d share with you
some advice from a person who
actually hires teens for summer jobs.
My daughter has ...
economic insight | by lecia parks langston, economist

   Gross Domestic Product Data Comes to
   Metropolitan Areas

economic news | by john mathews, economist

 Job Outlook for College Graduates                                         ...
gree starting figures were off two percent from the average
offer made to the class of 2009. That’s a decline from $49,353...
insider news | by mark knold & john krantz, economists

Education Pay$
E     very year in the months of May and June, colleges and
      universities across the nation hold their...
insider news | by mark knold and john krantz, economists

                     Given the fact that those with postsecon...
what's happening | by nate talley, economist

                                                   Fourth Quarter 2009 Jo...
2004-2009 Metropolitan
                             Job Vacancy Study Openings and Vacancy Rates
occupations | by linda marling church, research analyst

                                         Emerging Occupations:
I  In past eras, a ticket writer hand wrote or painted price
   tickets on goods displayed for sale and painted window
Utah Trendlines: May-June 2010
Utah Trendlines: May-June 2010
Utah Trendlines: May-June 2010
Utah Trendlines: May-June 2010
Utah Trendlines: May-June 2010
Utah Trendlines: May-June 2010
Utah Trendlines: May-June 2010
Utah Trendlines: May-June 2010
Utah Trendlines: May-June 2010
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Utah Trendlines: May-June 2010


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Utah Trendlines: May-June 2010

  1. 1. May/June 2010 Perspectives on Utah’s Economy Job Outlook for College Grads FOR TEENS: Cool Tips for Hot Summer Jobs Department of Workforce Services
  2. 2. Trendlines Trendlines is published every other month by the Utah Department of Workforce Services, Utah Department of Workforce Services Workforce Development and Information Executive Director Division. To read, download, or print Kristen Cox this publication (free), see our Internet site: Click on Workforce Research and Analysis “Publications” then select the one you want Rick Little, Director from the list. Kimberley Bartel, Editor To obtain additional printed copies or to Contributors subscribe to Trendlines contact: Mark Knold Department of Workforce Services John Mathews Attn: WDID John Krantz 140 East 300 South Jim Robson Salt Lake City, UT 84111 Lecia Langston Linda Marling Church Jane Broadhead Telephone: (801) 526-9462 Nate Talley Fax: (801) 526-9238 Email: Coordination Connie Blaine The Workforce Development and Designer Information Division generates accurate, Pat Swenson timely, and understandable data and analyses to provide knowledge of ever- changing workforce environments that support sound planning and decision-making. DWS-03-44-0510 Equal Opportunity Employer/Program Auxiliary aids and services are available upon request to individuals with disabilities by calling (801) 526-9240. Individuals with speech and/or hearing impairments may call the Relay Utah by dialing 711. Spanish Relay Utah: 1-888-346-3162. 2 May/June 2010
  3. 3. May/June 2010 contents Economy Perspectives on Utah’s Job Outlook for College Grads Revising Utah's 2009 4 Economic Performance Wasatch Front and Statewide FOR TEENS: Cool Tips for Hot Summer Jobs Cool Tips for a Hot Summer Job Department of Workforce Services 6 The Outlook Gross Domestic Product Data Job Outlook for 8 Comes to Metropolitan Areas Economic Insight College Grads and Job Outlook for College Graduates 2010 Summer Youth 10 Economic News Two Ways Education Pays 12 Insider News Help Wanted But Not 16 By Employers What's Happening Emerging Occupations: 18 How Times Change Occupations pg. 6 U.S. Occupational and Employment 20 Projections 2008-2018 National News WIA Youth Program 23 DWS News State and Local Government Jobs 24 Among Utah's Counties The Outskirts Duchesne County 26 County Highlight Just the Facts... 27 Rate Update pg. 12 Trendlines 3
  4. 4. wasatch front and statewide | by mark knold, chief economist Revising Utah's 2009 Economic Performance Why revise data? Monthly snapshots aren't fully developed. I t is common for government-generated statistics to be changed, or “revised,” after an original data profile had been released. This occurs because most government statistical data generated on a monthly basis are mere samples or snapshots of a larger pool of Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW)—not a survey, but a census. In most years, the revisions between the original survey estimates and these later census counts are minimal, data that needs additional time to more fully develop. but not in the wild and wooly recession year of 2009. The survey is commended for capturing the steep One of these statistics is the employment profile of employment downturn when it began in late 2008, Utah. On a monthly basis, the Utah Department of but it came up short in ultimately measuring the depth Workforce Services prepares a report highlighting of Utah’s job loss. Whereas the survey had originally Utah’s previous month’s profile of employment gains measured Utah’s 12-month job loss for August 2009 or losses. These counts are generated by the United at -4.5 percent, the QCEW data later showed that States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), but BLS prefers same loss to be -5.8 percent. That is a difference of an that the individual states release and explain that data additional 26,000 lost jobs—no small potatoes at that. for them. None of this ultimately changes the 2009 Utah Yet it is only survey data. There is a richer set of Utah economic performance. It did what it did whether it employment data that will appear months later via each was originally measured properly or not. What the state’s unemployment insurance program. That count change does is allow us to accurately understand and is so comprehensive it is actually called a Quarterly record Utah’s 2009 economic performance. 4 May/June 2010
  5. 5. More recent employment data shows a greater job loss than originally calculated in 2009. Trendlines 5
  6. 6. the outlook | by lecia parks langston, economist Cool Tips I f you’re a teenager looking for a part- time or summer job, there’s some good news and some bad news. First, the bad news—Utah and the rest of the nation are just starting to dig their way For a Hot out of a long and deep recession and jobs have been scarce. Summer Job Now, the good news—many of the industries that usually hire teenagers are starting to recover. In other words, finding a summer job this year should be easier than it was last year. Plus, there’s a lot of turnover in the types of jobs that hire teens, so the odds of finding work are better than you might think. Now, I don’t have much space in this article. So what’s the most important advice I can give you for your job search? • Start looking for a job NOW. Many employers have already started to look for summer hires. • Telleveryone you know (friends, parents, aunts, uncles, teachers, church leaders, neighbors, etc.) that you are looking for work. This is the best way to find a job. • Go to the following web site for tips on how to dress, interview, prepare a resume, and look for work: http:// htm. • Look for work online: • Hit the streets. Apply for employ- ment at places that typically hire people under 20—fast food restau- rants, stores, landscaping businesses, motels/hotels. 6 May/June 2010
  7. 7. Finally, I thought I’d share with you some advice from a person who actually hires teens for summer jobs. My daughter has a summer job as an assistant manager at the local swimming pool and has helped hire numerous lifeguards and other pool staff. Here are some of her interview “do's and don’ts.” Utah Inexperienced DOn’t dress like a slob. Don’t show too much skin and do sit modestly. DO Wages* comb your hair, brush your teeth, and Amusement/Recreation $6.80 dress a step higher than the standards Attendant for the job. This isn’t a fashion show, it’s a job interview. Dressing appropriately Cashier $6.90 shows the employer you know how to behave appropriately on the job. Childcare Worker $6.90 If you’re not sure what to wear, ask a working adult or even the person who calls to set up the interview. Construction Laborer $9.10 DOn’t give one-word answers. DO take Fast Food Cook $6.80 the time to explain why you would be a good employee. An employer doesn’t Fast Food Worker $6.80 know about you unless you tell them. DOn’t be late. Showing up late to the Farmworker/Greenhouse $7.60 interview is a pretty good indication that you’re not responsible to show up Hotel/Motel Clerk $7.80 to work on time. Janitor $7.20 DOn’t show up on the wrong day. Okay, you guys all have cell-phones Landscaping Worker $8.00 and know how to work them. Make sure you accurately record the interview time and date. If you do forget, call and Lifeguard $6.80 check. Maids/Housekeeping $7.10 DOn’t ask for half the summer off. An employer is hiring you to work. If O ce Clerk $8.20 vacations, sports, or other activities will require a significant time away from the Receptionist $7.90 job, you probably won’t be hired. DOn’t expect to be rehired if you Stock Clerk $8.20 were a poor employee last year. Once you have a job, work hard, show up Vehicle Cleaners $7.30 on time, work your shift, and don’t cause trouble. If you act responsibly, Waiter/Waitress $6.80 employers will want to hire you again *The wage for new workers entering the occupation--reflects the average of the next year. wage estimates of the bottom third of the wages of the workers. Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; May 2008. Trendlines 7
  8. 8. economic insight | by lecia parks langston, economist Gross Domestic Product Data Comes to Metropolitan Areas A ny serious discussion of the state of the U.S. economy includes at least a side conversation about the nation’s “gross domestic product.” What is it? Gross domestic product begun releasing GDP figures for met- ropolitan statistical areas. In addition, they are now providing data on an “ac- celerated” basis. That’s their word, not mine, since the most recently released Idaho); Ogden-Clearfield, UT (Da- vis, Weber, Morgan counties), Provo- Orem, UT (Utah and Juab counties), Salt Lake City, UT (Salt Lake, Summit, and Tooele counties) and St. George, measures value of all the goods and numbers are for 2008. UT (Washington County). Each MSA services produced by the U.S. economy showed a unique pattern during the re- in a given time period. Gross domestic Of course, just like the national GDP cent boom-to-bust cycle. product or “GDP” tells us whether the statistics, the metro data is often re- economy is growing or contracting. vised. Keep in mind that the most com- Comparing “real” or inflation-adjusted The financial press uses the general mon word in their printed methodol- estimates for these areas produces an rule that two quarters of declining GDP ogy for calculating GDP is “estimate.” enlightening picture. Most MSAs dis- indicates a recession—although that’s (Sorry, I’m with the data police. It’s my played their most rapid GDP growth not always true. And, the stock market duty to point these things out.) Nev- in 2005-2006 and their worst perfor- rises and falls based on the release of ertheless, the new GDP estimates for mance in 2008. However, the Logan this one statistic. Utah’s metropolitan statistical areas MSA bucked this trend. Its highest provide some interesting insights on GDP growth occurred in 2003 and its I Want My GDP! the boom-to-bust cycle we’ve recently worst growth in 2006. In 2008, while In the past, the Bureau of Economic experienced. everyone else was experiencing slow or Analysis didn’t publish local-level no growth, the Logan MSA managed a GDP figures, and its state figures were Charting Boom-to-Bust Cycles 5-percent gain. miserably out-of-date. But sometimes Utah has five metropolitan statisti- things do get better in the data world. cal areas (MSA): Logan, UT-ID (Cache While generally following the trend of Recently the federal government has County, Utah and Franklin County, other MSAs, the Salt Lake City MSA ac- 8 May/June 2010
  9. 9. 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Annual Change in Real* 0% 14% Gross Domestic Product -2% -4% 2002 2003 12% 10% Logan, UT-ID MSA 8% Ogden Clear eld, UT MSA 6% Provo-Orem, UT MSA Salt Lake City, UT MSA 4% St. George, UT MSA 2% 0% -2% -4% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Logan, UT-ID MSA *Chained 2001 dollars. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Ogden Clear eld, UT MSA Provo-Orem, UT MSA tually experienced declining GDP dur- ing Salt Lakewhen most areas registered 2003, City, UT MSA strong growth. Overall, the Ogden- St. George, UT MSA Clearfield MSA showed the most con- sistent expansion in GDP, although here too, the recession was apparent in the slower growth of 2008. The dreadful toll of the boom-to-bust cycle was most apparent for the St. George MSA. Back in 2005, when the feds released the first prototype GDP totals for MSAs, the St. George MSA, with a 13-percent annual rate of real GDP growth, ranked as the fourth fast- est growing metro economy in the For more information on United States. gross domestic product However, the release of 2008 GDP fig- for the Utah’s metropolitan ures found the county with a 2-percent decline in real gross domestic product. statistical areas, go to: And instead of ranking fourth for GDP growth, it ranked 329 out of 366 metro areas. Ouch! Boom to bust, indeed. Trendlines 9
  10. 10. economic news | by john mathews, economist Job Outlook for College Graduates 2010 "It’s the Economy."” College graduates this year will have to work very hard to find a position in their career field. I f you Google job outlook for grads you will find articles that say the outlook is bad. Although there are some tiny green shoots pointing to an economic turnaround, improve- With a slumping economy, unem- ployment high and job losses con- tinuing, firms are reacting cautiously. Overall, companies are cutting back their hiring, waiting for the economic and the nation, however this doesn’t mean that no jobs will be available. Major Majors According to Michigan State Uni- ment won’t happen in the next few pendulum to swing through the bot- versity’s Collegiate Employment Re- months or this year. Even with the tom of the business cycle. This means search Institute (CERI), the majors economy starting to grow, it’s only businesses perceive that consumers employers are seeking include E- at a tepid rate and that doesn’t mean are not starting to spend and cre- commerce, entrepreneurialism, en- that the number of jobs will be grow- ate the demand that fuels economic vironmental sciences, information ing anytime soon. There is always a growth. It’s really about perception of science, information systems (man- lag between economic growth and the consumers. agement and computer), interactive job growth coming out of a recession. computer design, statistics, nursing, Sometimes it’s just a few months, If they feel the economy is improv- and social work.1 sometimes years. All this gloom and ing, they spend and borrow more. doom means that graduates this year This creates demand for businesses Remember, job demand is driven have got their job-search work cut to expand to meet the demand, and by the industries where there is de- out for them. away the economy goes in a growth mand. Currently these include tech- cycle. It’s apparent that this phe- nology, healthcare, and government nomenon hasn’t happened yet (primarily federal government). Oth- to any large degree, so er than specific majors, a survey from employers aren’t calling National Association of Colleges and back laid-off workers or Employers (NACE) reports the top hiring new workers to skills for top candidates. meet the demand. That’s StudEntS seeking employment ls per company are the market the college grads are facing this $$$$$$$ Starting salary offers to 2010 gradu- will face fierce competition. Hiring leve spring. Recruiting activ- ates are less than last year, according several decades, even after adjusting ity may be down in Utah to the (NACE) survey.2 Bachelor’s de- at the lowest levels in responded. for the number of small employers who Companies expect to hire about 30 individuals per face competition company. Our newest grads might not es are focusing from experienced labor, as many compani idates with more on new college grads rather than cand ugh jobs to go experience. Still, there are simply not eno be FOCUSED, around. Students need to continue to DIRECTED, and CONNECTED. ’s Collegiate Source: Michigan State University Employment Research Institute 10 May/June 2010
  11. 11. gree starting figures were off two percent from the average offer made to the class of 2009. That’s a decline from $49,353 to $48,351. Another interesting finding from the survey was that just 29 percent of employers in 2010 planned to increase their salary offers for the 2010 class. Business-related degrees’ starting offers were down but not by much. Computer occupa- tions listed about a six-percent increase compared to 2009. En- gineering disciplines also felt an increase, albeit small. Liberal arts degrees’ starting salaries were heavily affected by the reces- sion with average offers of eleven percent less than last year. top Skills for top What’s a Graduate to Do? Candidates Finding a job is a job. Do the legwork focusing on the kinds of Besides the right major and a good GPA, what companies that employ your major. Use the placement center do employers prize in potential employees? of your soon-to-be alma mater to find out which companies are coming to town. Remember, some companies may not physically visit the college but recruit electronically through the school. Communication skills Flexibility/adaptability Strong work ethic Computer skills Use every contact you know to identify firms that are, or soon will be, hiring. This means using your contacts with employees Initiative Detail-oriented currently working for companies of interest. Seek referrals through Interpersonal skills Leadership skills college mentors. Certainly, get on the Internet and explore Problem-solving skills Technical skills opportunities listed with individual companies or through larger Teamwork skills Organizational abilities recruiting sites. Use social media, like Facebook or LinkedIn, as a Analytical skills Self-confidence method of connecting. One more sure-fire leg up in the job-hunting process is to go Source: Job Outlook 2010, National Association of Colleges and Employers into a job interview with some job-related experience on your application. Employers seek educational attainment but the tie- breaker will be experience. This can come from part-time work, internship, volunteer work, work-study, or any way you can get some real-world on-the-job experience. Where to Go to Work We have fared far better in the Intermountain West with lower unemployment You must be mobile; you have to go where the jobs are. That may rates and many new companies either locating new mean you have to leave the state. Also, in an “employer’s” job centers of operation or expanding in Utah. Career fairs market, you may not be able to start at the great salary you wanted, or in your prime location. You may have to accept something have been well-attended across the state in both fall and less to get started in your career. Also, remember that not all spring. Many employers shifted their focus to internships job opportunities are equally distributed across the USA. For rather than full-time hires, as a way to hedge against flat example, the majority of jobs in corporate business and finance are concentrated on the coasts, but primarily in the East. Major hiring projections. Local employers report that engineering/construction activity is in major metropolitan areas. several factors at the federal level are making Art, advertising, and design businesses are also concentrated them cautious about hiring, such as the on the coasts, as is international trade. impact of health insurance reform and Now and Beyond 2010 the possible effects that cap and trade Remember, the economy is in the bottom of a business cycle, or could have on manufacturers at it relates to close to it. It’s not the last recession you will see. The economy energy consumption. Over all, the strength of doesn’t run on a smooth and steady track. It’s more like a roller the Utah economy has allowed local employers coaster over time. There is some economic security in a good education. In general, the more you learn, the more you to continue to hire new graduates and earn, and the more you learn the less unemployment interns. you will experience. Stan Inman, Director—Career Services, 1 University of Utah 2 Shows_Lower_Average_Salary_for_College_Class_of_2010.a spx?referal=pressroom&menuid=273 Trendlines 11
  12. 12. insider news | by mark knold & john krantz, economists two Ways Unemployment Rates by Level of Education for Utah* 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% Less than High School Diploma High School Diploma or GED 4% Some College, No Degree Associate's Degree 3% Bachelor's Degree 2% Master's Degree Professional or Doctorate Degree 1% 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Doctorate Degree $1,356 Professional Degree $1,510 Average Weekly Master's Degree $1,274 Earnings Bachelor's Degree $969 by Level of Education in Utah for 2009* Associate's Degree $701 Some College, No Degree $750 High School Diploma or GED $679 Less than High School Diploma $481 *Based on individuals 25 years of age or older. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey 12 May/June 2010
  13. 13. Education Pay$ E very year in the months of May and June, colleges and universities across the nation hold their traditional commencement ceremonies. According to the U.S. National Center for Education Statistics, just over three mil- lion postsecondary degrees were conferred in 2007. Given though the explanations of differ- ences in concentration across oc- cupations or industries suggested themselves, the data does not support either of these hypoth- that the number of degrees conferred has increased steadily eses. A definitive explanation every year over the last several decades, it is safe to expect cannot be provided without that at least another three million degrees will be awarded further research. in 2010. Unemployment Rates by After hundreds of lectures, countless hours of study, and Educational Attainment dozens of exams, many students have likely pondered the The second way in which education same question: Is it worth it? The evidence provided below pays can be viewed as an indirect supports a resounding “yes!” to this question. While the benefit of higher education. In a benefits of higher education are numerous, the focus here sense, an unemployment rate can be rests on only two. First, a direct benefit of higher educational interpreted as the probability of becoming attainment is a higher expected level of earnings. Second, unemployed. This probability will vary from an indirect benefit of higher education is the reduction in group to group depending on the characteristics the probability of becoming unemployed. Two different that determine the groups. When the groups are determined methods are used to illustrate the relationship between by level of education, a clear and distinct relationship education levels and unemployment rates. between unemployment and education appears. (The unemployment rates were estimated using the CPS data for Earnings by Educational Attainment Utah.) When most people think about the ways in which education pays, the first thought that comes to mind is earnings. One Although the correlation is not perfect, the graph shows way to determine if education pays is to consider the average that the unemployment rate generally decreases for each weekly earnings by level of education. The data used to higher level of educational attainment. In 2005, the estimate the average weekly earnings by level of education unemployment rate steadily decreases with each increase in was taken from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population the level of education, except for one incongruity. While Survey (CPS). Using the 12 monthly national samples for those with master’s degrees had a lower unemployment rate 2009, the Utah portions were extracted and pooled together. than those with professional or doctorate degrees, not too (Because the sample size for Utah is relatively small, the much significance should be placed on this result. Because pooling of the data helps to improve the reliability of the the total number of individuals in the sample with either estimates.) a professional or doctorate degree is rather small, just one additional unemployed individual in this category can have As the graph reveals, average weekly earnings tend to in- a large impact on the unemployment rate. crease with higher levels of education. However, the correla- tion is not perfect. At the highest educational levels, those Turning to 2009, the relationship between unemployment with doctorate degrees earn less, on average, than those with and level of education is again nearly perfect. The one professional degrees. Perhaps this should not be viewed as discrepancy is that those with an associate degree have an anomaly. The five highest paying occupations in Utah a higher unemployment rate than those with only some fall under the occupational category of healthcare practitio- college, but no degree. These two categories of educational ners, all of which require a professional degree. The one attainment were precisely the same ones that exhibited a unexpected result was that those with associate degrees earn similar inconsistency with respect to earnings. Again, no less than those with only some college, but no degree. Al- clear explanation presents itself. continued Trendlines 13
  14. 14. insider news | by mark knold and john krantz, economists Given the fact that those with postsecondary degrees have a lower probability of becoming unemployed, the costs associated with obtaining a higher education are clearly worth it. continued from page 14 Initial Unemployment Claims el were used, and most offer a represen- and Education tative fit with a zip code. Tracts whose 25-and-older population comprised The year 2009 was notable for the 80 percent or more with an education high volume of initial unemployment level below an associate degree are rep- claims generated in Utah. That volume resented on the Wasatch Front map was the highest since the early 1980s. with a red dot. There appears to emerge The Utah Department of Workforce a strong correlation that, the lower the Services is able to record the number of education level by Census Tracts with- initial claims filed down to the zip code in a zip code, the higher the amount of level. As the accompanying map shows, initial unemployment claims that will claims were pervasive across the state, emerge for that zip code. but there are certain “hot spots” that emerge with more claims than other The resulting analysis makes a strong areas. Not surprisingly, these are found case for the concept that the higher in the Wasatch Front with its higher the education level an individual has concentration of population. But even attained, the less likely one is to become within this metropolitan area, there are a laid-off worker. Other social and areas with relatively low quantities of economic characteristics were tested initial unemployment claims. for correlation, including population counts, income, and age distribution, This raises the question of why some but none showed a strong correlation. areas are more prone to high levels of The industry mix in a zip code is not unemployment claims than others. a factor, because the initial claims are Along the Wasatch Front, those areas recorded by where a person lives, not emerge as eastern Tooele County, West where their job was located. Valley City, northern Davis County, and most of central and northern Weber Higher Education is Worth It County. What characteristic might tie them all together? It turns out that Obtaining a postsecondary degree is not the answer is education. without its costs. Full-time students who do not work while attending college not Each of these areas is charac- only incur the direct costs of tuition and terized with a high percentage books, but also the opportunity cost of of its population with educa- the income that could have been earned tion levels less than an asso- instead of going to college. However, the ciate degree. This was revealed increase in expected lifetime earnings for by overlaying education results individuals with a bachelor’s degree or from the 2000 Census on top of higher is much larger that the amount the initial unemployment claims. This needed to cover these educational costs. does not result in a perfect match, as If we add in the fact that those with post- Census data is not available at the zip secondary degrees have a lower probabil- code level. But for this analysis, educa- ity of becoming unemployed, it is clear tion levels down to the Census tract lev- that higher education is worth it. 14 May/June 2010
  15. 15.   White space assumes missing zip code parameters Zip Codes Zip Codes Initial Unemployment Claims 3,000 - 5,500 Initial Unemployment Claims 1,500 - 2,999  3,000 - 5,500 100 - 1,499 1,500 - 2,999 100 - 1,499 1 - 99 1 - 99 EDUCATION LEVEL BY CENSUS TRACT 2000 80% or More with less than an Associates Degree                          Initial Unemployment   Claims                                 By Zip Code               January 2009     through   December 2009 There appears to emerge a strong correlation that, the lower the education level by Census Tracts   within a zip code, the   higher the amount of initial unemployment 0 10 20 40 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services 60 80 Miles 0 3 6 12 18 24 Miles Zip Codes claims that will Zip Codes Zip Codes Initial Unemployment Claims Initial Unemployment Claims Initial Unemployment Claims  3,000 - 5,500 3,000- - 5,500  3,000 - 5,500 emerge for that 1,500 2,999 1,500 - 2,999 1,500 - 2,999 100 - 1,499 100 - 1,499 100 - 1,499 1 - 99 1 - - 99 1 99 zip code. Wasatch Front Initial EDUCATION LEVEL BY CENSUS TRACT 2000 EDUCATION LEVEL BY CENSUS TRACT 2000 EDUCATION LEVEL BY CENSUS TRACT 2000 Unemployment Claims 80% or More with less than an Associates Degree 80% or More with less than an Associates Degree 80% or More with less than an Associates Degree By Zip Code January 2009 through                   December 2009                                                                                                                                   Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services. Trendlines 15
  16. 16. what's happening | by nate talley, economist Fourth Quarter 2009 Job Vacancy Study Help Wanted But Not By Employers Is Utah's economy embarking on a recovery? If so, expect the next study to be far less gloomy. R esults from the Department of Workforce Services’ Fourth Quarter 2009 Job Vacancy Study (JVS) empirically confirm what many Utahns—and certainly job seekers—are I’ll present a simple graph instead. It seems that during the current down- turn, there are a few industries that receive high levels of media attention for their economic difficulties. The fi- an hour most recently. Openings in the healthcare industry are the primary contributor to the increase in the re- gional average wage, as those openings accounted for 17.8 percent of all open- all too familiar with, that is, that the nance, construction and manufactur- ings in the region and offered an aver- demand for labor in Utah is not what it ing sectors come to mind as recipients age hourly wage of $16.90. There were used to be. This deficiency in demand of steady news coverage, although that numerous openings with above-aver- is commonly (and for the most part, list is by no means exhaustive. The ac- age offered wages. These included jobs rightfully) attributed to the affects of companying graph illustrates the num- in engineering, nursing and computer the well-publicized national recession ber of openings in the aforementioned software development, just to name a which began in December of 2007. industries during each year that the JVS few. Further, for those job seekers look- While the cause of Utah’s relatively low was administered in Metro Utah. ing for immediate work, there were sev- labor demands may be apparent, Utah’s eral occupations such as cashiers, cus- demand for labor remains worthy of re- As the graph clearly indicates, finance, tomer service representatives and food search and quantification. construction and manufacturing called preparation and serving workers that for healthy amounts of labor during posted hundreds of openings. During the fourth quarter of 2009, Met- 2004, 2005 and 2007. In 2008 and ropolitan Utah—which is comprised 2009, however, those calls were severe- Many economists believe that Utah’s of nine counties along the Wasatch ly muffled (and nearly muted in the economy is embarking on a recovery. Front—posted a job vacancy rate of 1.5 construction industry). If that’s the case, expect the next Job percent, meaning that, for every 100 Vacancy Study to be far less gloomy. If jobs in the area there were 1.5 open- At this point we’ll focus on what’s in they’re wrong, maybe I’ll write about ings. By contrast, the 2008 study un- the glass (or in this case what’s in Utah’s something more cheery next year. covered a rate of 1.8 percent, and the economy) rather than what is not. It Teenage vampires, anyone? year before that the job vacancy rate turns out that the average offered wage was 3.3 percent. I could continue with for all openings in Metro Utah is up the most melancholy of statistics, but from $13.40 an hour in 2008 to $14.10 16 May/June 2010
  17. 17. 2004-2009 Metropolitan Job Vacancy Study Openings and Vacancy Rates 45,000 40,000 Number of Openings 35,000 30,000 3.3 25,000 2.9 20,000 1.8 2.1 15,000 1.5 10,000 5,000 0 2003 2004 2005 2006* 2007 2008 2009 2010 *Utah did not conduct a JVS in 2006 Source: Fourth Quarter 2004-2005, 2006-2009 Job Vacancy Studies, Utah Department of Workforce Services. "Recession-Attention" Industries 4,000 3,500 Finance Number of Openings* 3,000 Construction 2,500 Manufacturing 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2004 2005 2007 2008 2009 *Openings data pertains to the Metropolitan Utah JVS area Utah did not conduct a JVS in 2006 Source: Fourth Quarter 2004-2005, 2006-2009 Job Vacancy Studies, Utah Department of Workforce Services. Trendlines 17
  18. 18. occupations | by linda marling church, research analyst Emerging Occupations: How Times Change 18 May/June 2010
  19. 19. I In past eras, a ticket writer hand wrote or painted price tickets on goods displayed for sale and painted window display signs, creating an aesthetically pleasing and informative work of art in a store window. A hair seat merchant dealt in horsehair stuffing used in upholstery. information system analysts must be educated in GIS software, geography, city planning, cartography and geology. Because of the diversity of educational background required, many college students are now earning multiple majors. Today we have pricing tickets that are electronically printed How does an occupation get a listing with BLS? Adding a and scanned and chair seats that are cushioned with man- new job title can be confusing and elusive. Is it a variation made polyester fill.These are only two “old” occupations of duties similar to an existing title or is there a true that illustrate how much evolution and change occurs in departure from existing skills that would warrant the occupations--they certainly are not static. addition of an occupation? The biennial Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) Survey conducted by BLS in As defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which partnership with all the state workforce agencies, measures determines whether an occupation should be added to employment and wages for existing occupations. Most government publications, an emerging occupation is one responses from employers will fall under existing Standard that has been recognized in small numbers that have Occupational Classification (SOC) codes. Where a SOC code continued to grow. Occupations usually emerge from does not apply, research analysts at the state level determine advancement in technology, changes in laws and regulations, whether the occupation fits into an existing SOC code. If it and demographics. Recently they have derived from war doesn’t it is recorded in a residual “all other” category and and terrorism, natural disasters and global competition passed along, with explanation, to BLS employees at the also. According to BLS, small companies--those with fewer regional and national level for review. New and emerging than 50 employees--generate the greatest percentage of occupations are determined based on these reviews. emerging occupations since they can respond more quickly to consumer trends and technological advances than large In 2010 the SOC was revised to include information security corporations. analysts and web developers in the major group Computer and Mathematical Science Occupations (15-0000). Neither Two examples of emerging occupations are search engine occupation had been specifically named in the 2000 version optimization (SEO) and data miners. SEO analysts test and of SOC. Some occupations were moved from one major analyze keywords, titles and copy for search engines and group to another. SOC is the measurement of long-existing, directories and track and present web metrics to show a new and emerging occupations; it is dynamic and reflects company’s return on investment. SEO is established enough the ever-changing face of occupations in the U.S. to have its own association and trade group. Data miners search database applications for hidden patterns in order Other Resources: to predict future behavior. A web search is never just a web • search, is it? • • National Association of Colleges and Employers Emerging occupations are unfolding as multi-disciplinary, • specialized and international. For instance, geographic • number of new Job titles in 2010 Business & Financial 1 Computer & Mathematical Science 4 Community & Social Services 1 Education, Training, Library 2 Healthcare Practitioner & Technical 2 Other Healthcare Practitioner & Technical 8 Protective Service 1 Personal Care & Service 1 Office And Administrative Support 1 Construction & Extraction 1 Installation, Maintenance, Repair 1 Production 1 Trendlines 19