Local Employment Dynamics Data

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August 2013 by Lecia Langston, Utah Economist with the Department of Workforce Services

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Local Employment Dynamics Data

  1. 1. Local Employment Dynamics Data Tracking the economy through boom, bust and recovery
  2. 2. Why Use LED Data? 1. Available for smaller regions. 2. Employment indicators important. 3. Greater understanding of economy. 4. Demographics of employment. 5. Time series data. 6. Data extraction tool makes it easy.
  3. 3. Why Use LED Data? 7. Inform private-sector decisions. 8. Efficiently allocate public resources.
  4. 4. Types of LED Research Earnings by Education, Industry and Gender Trends in Specific Industry (Health care/ Social Services) Hires And Stable-Hire Earnings Using Tableau to Analyze LED Data
  5. 5. Box Elder Cache Rich Weber Tooele Salt Lake Morgan Summit Daggett Utah Wasatch Duchesne Uintah Juab Sanpete Carbon Emery Grand Millard Piute Garfield Sevier Wayne San Juan Iron Beaver Washington Kane Davis Southwest Workforce Investment Area Central Workforce Investment Area Where in the world is . . .?
  6. 6. Earnings Education, Industry, Gender
  7. 7. Earnings by Education $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 $4,000 $4,500 $5,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Utah Average Monthly Wage by Worker Education* Bachelor's Degree or Higher Some College/Associate High School Less than High School *Workers 25 and older only. Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Local Employment Dynamics program. As expected, additional educational attainment results in higher earnings.
  8. 8. Earnings by Education $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 $4,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Central Utah Average Monthly Wage by Worker Education* Bachelor's Degree or Higher High School Some College/Associate Less than High School *Workers 25 and older only. Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Local Employment Dynamics program. In Central Utah, earnings are more compressed than statewide.
  9. 9. Earnings by Education $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 $4,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Southwest Utah Average Monthly Wage by Worker Education* Bachelor's Degree or Higher High School Some College/Associate Less than High School *Workers 25 and older only. Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Local Employment Dynamics program.
  10. 10. Earnings by Education and Industry 15% 18% 26% 28% 29% 24% 31% 30% 37% 41% 42% 41% 44% 50% 50% 53% 56% 54% 68% 76% 52% 24% 32% 40% 40% 40% 44% 49% 53% 58% 63% 63% 64% 70% 82% 85% 88% 91% 91% 104% 124% 81% Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Accommodation and Food Services Construction Transportation and Warehousing Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Public Administration Other Services Utilities Manufacturing Retail Trade Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Administrative/Support/Waste Mngnt/Remediation Services Educational Services Information Wholesale Trade Finance and Insurance Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Management of Companies and Enterprises Health Care and Social Assistance All Industries Bachelor's Degree Wage Premium--High School Graduate Bachelor's Degree Wage Premium--Some College/Associate Degree Utah Bachelor's-Degree-or- Higher Wage Premium compared to Wages of Workers with Other Educational Levels* 2006-2010 Average *Workers 25 and older only. Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Local Employment Dynamics program. In these industries, a college- education really pays.
  11. 11. Earnings by Education and Industry Central Utah Bachelor's-Degree-or- Higher Wage Premium compared to Wages of Workers with Other Educational Levels* 2006-2010 Average *Workers 25 and older only. Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Local Employment Dynamics program. -7% 10% 21% 22% 24% 25% 25% 30% 37% 38% 41% 47% 52% 69% 73% 86% 92% 92% 108% 108% 61% 2% 6% 17% 17% 13% 18% 18% 21% 20% 23% 28% 30% 43% 55% 38% 66% 57% 65% 74% 72% 43% Management of Companies and Enterprises Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Transportation and Warehousing Utilities Other Services Construction Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Retail Trade Public Administration Accommodation and Food Services Manufacturing Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Wholesale Trade Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Information Educational Services Finance and Insurance Health Care and Social Assistance All Sectors Bachelor's Degree Wage Premium--Some College/Associate Degree Bachelor's Degree Wage Premium--High School Graduate In this industry, education did not increase earnings. . .
  12. 12. Earnings by Education and Industry Southwest Utah Bachelor's-Degree-or- Higher Wage Premium compared to Wages of Workers with Other Educational Levels* 2006-2010 Average *Workers 25 and older only. Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Local Employment Dynamics program. 12% 10% 30% 13% 20% 21% 26% 27% 23% 29% 27% 33% 30% 25% 33% 44% 46% 61% 79% 71% 42% 17% 18% 23% 27% 29% 32% 33% 36% 37% 41% 44% 46% 46% 49% 53% 68% 72% 95% 120% 133% 60% Construction Accommodation and Food Services Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services Public Administration Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Manufacturing Other Services Transportation and Warehousing Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Information Utilities Educational Services Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Finance and Insurance Health Care and Social Assistance Management of Companies and Enterprises All Sectors Bachelor's Degree Wage Premium--High School Graduate Bachelor's Degree Wage Premium--Some College/Associate Degree In Southwest Utah, education results in only a small premium in the construction industry.
  13. 13. Earnings by Education and Industry Utah County-Level Bachelor's-Degree-or- Higher Wage Premium compared to Wages of Workers with High School Education* 2006-2010 Average *Workers 25 and older only. Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Local Employment Dynamics program. 26% 39% 44% 49% 49% 50% 50% 51% 52% 53% 54% 56% 58% 59% 61% 62% 65% 65% 66% 67% 68% 70% 74% 75% 80% 81% 81% 81% 82% 88% Duchesne Uintah Beaver Sevier Carbon Wayne Tooele Kane Morgan Daggett Juab Grand Iron Washington San Juan Cache Garfield Weber Emery Davis Sanpete Wasatch Millard Summit Rich Utah State Piute Salt Lake Box Elder Location matters. Two counties with high levels of oil/gas industry employment
  14. 14. Earnings by Education and Gender $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 $4,000 $4,500 $5,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Central Utah Average Monthly Wage by Gender and Education Level* Female Bachelor's Degree Female High School Male Bachelor's Degree Male High School *Workers 25 and older only. Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Local Employment Dynamics program. In Central Utah, men with a high- school education earn more than women with a bachelor’s degree.
  15. 15. Earnings by Education and Gender $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 $4,000 $4,500 $5,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Southwest Utah Average Monthly Wage by Gender and Education Level* Female Bachelor's Degree Female High School Male Bachelor's Degree Male High School *Workers 25 and older only. Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Local Employment Dynamics program. In Southwest Utah, men with a high-school education earn only slightly more than women with a bachelor’s degree.
  16. 16. Other National Indicators 35% 37% 44% 45% 45% 46% 47% 50% 53% 54% 56% 63% 66% 67% 67% 69% 73% 74% 77% 58% Admin Support/Waste Mgmnt/Remediation Svcs Other Services Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Information Retail Trade Wholesale Trade Health Care and Social Assistance Accommodation and Food Services Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Finance and Insurance Manufacturing Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Construction Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Utilities Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Educational Services Public Administration Transportation and Warehousing All SectorsCentral Utah Degreed Female Average Monthly Wage as a Percentage of Degreed Male Average Monthly Wage* 2006-2010 *Workers 25 and older only. Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Local Employment Dynamics program.
  17. 17. Other National Indicators Southwest Utah Degreed Female Average Monthly Wage as a Percentage of Degreed Male Average Monthly Wage* 2006-2010 *Workers 25 and older only. Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Local Employment Dynamics program. 58% 79% 73% 68% 67% 66% 64% 64% 62% 62% 59% 58% 57% 56% 55% 51% 51% 50% 50% 46% 42% All Sectors Public Administration Educational Services Accommodation and Food Services Admin Support/Waste Mgmnt/Remediation Information Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Construction Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Transportation and Warehousing Manufacturing Utilities Management of Companies and Enterprises Wholesale Trade Other Services Finance and Insurance Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Retail Trade Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Health Care and Social Assistance In Southwest Utah, the public sector offers the best wage parity for men and women with a bachelor’s degree or higher.
  18. 18. Specific Industry Educational Levels
  19. 19. Trends in Health care/Social Services 9% 9% 9% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 29% 29% 29% 29% 29% 30% 29% 29% 40% 40% 40% 39% 39% 39% 40% 40% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 21% 21% 21% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Central Area Health Care/Social Assistance Share of Employment by Educational Level* Bachelor's Degree or Higher Some College or Associate Degree High School or Equiv Less than High School * Workers 25 and older. Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Local Employment Dynamics. In Central Utah, the share of employment by educational category has remained fairly stable.
  20. 20. Trends in Health care/Social Services 7% 7% 8% 8% 9% 9% 9% 10% 24% 24% 25% 25% 27% 27% 27% 27% 40% 40% 39% 39% 38% 37% 38% 38% 29% 29% 28% 28% 26% 26% 26% 25% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Southwest Health Care/Social Assistance Employment by Educational Level* Bachelor's Degree or Higher Some College or Associate Degree High School or Equiv Less than High School * Workers 25 and older. Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Local Employment Dynamics. In Southwest Utah, the share of employment with a bachelor’s degree or higher has declined.
  21. 21. Examining Hires Boom to Bust to Recovery
  22. 22. 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Recession as Determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Smaller share of hires as the economy heats up. Share of hires increases during recession and recovery. Decreasing share as the economy expands. * Four-quarter moving average; individuals 25 years and older only. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Local Employment Dynamics. Utah Share of New Hires* with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher Hires—Boom to Recession to Recovery
  23. 23. Hires—Boom to Recession to Recovery 10% 16% 16% 16% 16% 17% 17% 17% 18% 18% 18% 18% 19% 19% 19% 19% 20% 20% 20% 20% 21% 22% 22% 22% 23% 24% 24% 25% 26% 26% Piute Sevier Beaver Duchesne Uintah Emery Wayne Garfield Millard Carbon Grand San Juan Daggett Juab Tooele Box Elder Iron Washington Kane Sanpete Wasatch Morgan Weber Rich Cache Utah State Davis Summit Salt Lake Little or No Trend Decreasing Share Increasing Share Business Cycle 2000 – 2010 Trend Share of New Hires* with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher Four Quarters Ending March 31, 2011
  24. 24. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 Central Utah Stable Hires Stable Hires Four-Quarter Moving Average Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Local Employment Dynamics Hires—Boom to Recession to Recovery During the area’s worst hiring quarter, 1,200 workers found new jobs, more than 5 percent of total employment.
  25. 25. 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 Southwest Utah Stable Hires Four Quarter Moving Average Stable Hires Hires—Boom to Recession to Recovery Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Local Employment Dynamics During the area’s worst hiring quarter, 5,000 workers found new employment, more than 7 percent of total employment.
  26. 26. Hires—Boom to Recession to Recovery 18% 17% 17% 16% 16% 15% 16% 15% 15% 14% 13% 22% 23% 23% 23% 23% 22% 22% 21% 21% 21% 21% 21% 21% 22% 22% 23% 23% 24% 24% 24% 24% 24% 18% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 16% 16% 16% 17% 17% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 14% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Central Utah Share of Stable Hires by Age Group 65+ 55-64 45-54 35-44 25-34 19-24 18 and under Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Local Employment Dynamics Share of teenagers’ new hires declining
  27. 27. Hires—Boom to Recession to Recovery 13% 14% 14% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 27% 26% 26% 25% 26% 26% 22% 22% 22% 22% 23% 23% 23% 24% 24% 25% 26% 26% 17% 16% 16% 16% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 16% 16% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 13% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 8% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Southwest Utah Share of Stable Hires by Age Group 65+ 55-64 45-54 35-44 25-34 19-24 18 and under Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Local Employment DynamicsSource: U.S. Census Bureau; Local Employment Dynamics Share of older workers hires increased.
  28. 28. Hires—Boom to Recession to Recovery 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 20% 19% 19% 19% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 32% 33% 33% 32% 14% 13% 14% 14% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Central Utah Stable Hires by Educational Attainment* Less than High School High School Some College or Associate Bachelor's Degree or Higher * Workers 25 years and older. Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Local Employment Dynamics
  29. 29. Hires—Boom to Recession to Recovery 33% 32% 33% 31% 31% 30% 30% 30% 30% 33% 31% 25% 24% 24% 24% 24% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 24% 22% 23% 22% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 24% 23% 23% 20% 21% 21% 21% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 20% 22% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Southwest Utah Stable Hires by Educational Attainment* Less than High School High School Some College or Associate Bachelor's Degree or Higher * Workers 25 years and older. Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Local Employment Dynamics Share of degreed- workers increased coming out of recession.
  30. 30. $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 Central Utah Stable Hire Average Monthly Earnings Stable Hire Average Monthly Earnings Four-quarter Moving Average Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Local Employment Dynamics Hires—Boom to Recession to Recovery
  31. 31. Hires—Boom to Recession to Recovery $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600 $1,800 $2,000 Southwest Utah Stable Hire Average Monthly Earnings Stable Hire Average Monthly Earnings Four-quarter Moving Average Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Local Employment Dynamics
  32. 32. Hires—Boom to Recession to Recovery $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 Central Utah Average Monthly Stable Hire Wages by Educational Attainment* Bachelor's Degree or Higher Some College or Associate High School Less than High School * Four-quarter moving average; workers 25 and older only. Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Local Employment Dynamics program. Not much difference in new- hire wages in lower educational levels.
  33. 33. Hires—Boom to Recession to Recovery $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 Southwest Utah Average Monthly Stable Hire Wages by Educational Attainment* Bachelor's Degree or Higher Some College or Associate High School Less than High School * Four-quarter moving average; workers 25 and older only. Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Local Employment Dynamics program.
  34. 34. We’ve just scratched the surface . . . Separations Comparison of separations and new hires Ratios of all hires to stable hires Turnover rates Firm age Firm size Race/ethnicity
  35. 35. So much data, so little time A suggestion for easy data analysis. . .
  36. 36. Tableau Software 1. Perfect fit for LED time series. 2. Easy to drill-down to any detail. 3. Free Tableau Public product. 4. www.tableausoftware.com/public
  37. 37. Contact Information Lecia Parks Langston lecialangston@utah.gov 435-688-3115

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