PLAN B NO BS - J. IV CARBON Oil - 20th Century's Fatal Seductress. C2 V1
*Oil, our Deadly Mercenary
Army, our central Addiction
of the 20th Century.
* In 1900 the world produced 150 million barrels of oil, and,
* Now in the early 21st Century, 28 billion barrels per year, an
* 180 fold increase.
* Cheap oil has enabled our food production explosion, along with
our explosion in population, urbanization, and mobility. Oil’s
been like having 10’s of personal slaves each, objectively, for we
westerners, or like an oppressive western army, for the rest of
* In 1900 30% of us lived in cities. Thanks to oil, today 50% of us
* The Grain harvest increased 400% in the 20th century.
* Mobility has exploded, or, metastasized, if you will; a
proliferation of cars, trains, planes.
* Today, all we, today’s westerners have ever known is an oil based
civilization, though Gandhi said we westerners had everything
*Our Western Oil [Army] Fed us, Moved
us, Plundered for us.… Now, it is
abandoning, and turning on us. [Not we,
but our children deserve better.]
* 1981 was the peak of new discoveries worldwide. Zero, none, nada, not 1 top 20 discoveries
since then. Zilch. The tank is headed toward empty, for ever. You’ll tell your kids, what?
* In 2006 the world pumped 28 billion barrels but discovered only 9 billion new. Uh, yes, that is
not good. We used three times more than we replaced.
* The World’s reserves are in free-fall, for decades now. You didn’t know. You do now. And?
* One half of the world’s reserves are now used up. There are 1 trillion barrels left.
* THE FIRST TRILLION WAS EASY OIL.
* WHAT’S LEFT IS TOUGH OIL. It is,
* OFF SHORE,
* IN UNFRIENDLY COUNTRIES,
* IN A DEADLY MIXTURE OF SAND, OR SHALE.
* DIRTIEST FUEL ON THE PLANET.
* PEAK OIL IS HERE.
* THIS IS A TOTALLY DIFFERENT WORLD, THE ONE YOU ARE HANDING YOUR
CHILDREN, AND ALL OF CREATION.
* SO, WHAT IS THE END GAME FOR YOU? WARS? PRICE EXPLOSION? OR ARE YOU
READY TO BREAK A SWEAT TO HAND CREATION SOMETHING BETTER?
*Oil’s been 20th Century’s Food,
Pretty Much. It has infused
everything we’ve consumed.
Now, it’s gone.
*In 1950 through 1972 a bushel of wheat could be traded
for barrel of oil, both trading for about $2.
*But Grain is now pegged to Oil, and with oil now over $60
a barrel, grain for western cars is highly profitable.
*In 2006 16% of the corn crop went to fuel for the cars of
*By just 2 years later, in 2008 that doubled to about 30%.
[God save us from the ‘Christian’ nation.]
*THE WORLD PRICE OF GRAIN IS MOVING TO THE
OIL PRICE EQUIVALENT.
*Food will shift into the fuel economy benefiting western
affloholics, and away from the bellies of the starving
billions. Luckily, we are not all interconnected. Right?
*Cleaner Oil is More than
Half Gone. Forever. The
rest is the expensive, dirty,
*History is clear. New production follows new discovery
by about 40 years, throughout the history of oil
*In 1970 the US produced 9.6 million barrels per day.
*In 2006 the US produced 5.1 million barrels per day.
*There is a 47% decline in us production since 1970.
*Venezuela has peaked now, a major US supplier.
*The UK Peaked in roughly 2000.
*Oil in Russia and Others is
Gushing. For now. And
drowning Creation in co2.
*Russia eclipsed Saudi Arabia in 2006.
*Canada, horrifically, under control of its carbon rich
western right-wingers, is fighting to get its deadly tar
sands into the US, and into the world’s atmosphere. As
NASA’s James Hansen projects, Creation is doomed if
this happens. And so far, your sideline-sitting are making
it a done deal.
*Other countries in drill baby drill mode, till you stop
*The Biggest Sources
traditionally, are in
Decline - Saudi Arabia,
* Is the US 2nd largest supplier.
* In 2004 Mexico produced 3.4 million barrels per day.
* Mexico’s dominant oil field is in steep decline.
* Mexico could be a net oil importer by 2015.
* Largest oil field is 50 years old now.
* Saudi Arabia’s 2007 production of 8.9 million barrels was
down 6% from the prior year.
*Can pre-peak countries make up the difference for the
rest? For how long? We can only hope, not.
*Our Global Pushers, the
Corp(ses), Now are fiercely
Pushing Dirtiest Oil.
* In decades there have not been any dramatic increases in exploration and
development of traditional oil.
* Obviously, the corp(ses) perceive that 95% of world’s oil is already discovered.
* The whole world has been seismically searched.
* It is extremely unlikely new fields to be found.
* World demand increases annually 2 million barrels per day.
* Old oil fields decline annually 4 million barrels per day. Uh, you do the math.
* Current world demand needs a whole new Saudi Arabia every few years.
YES, THIS IS NOT SUSTAINABLE.
* IF THE OIL CO’S HAD GOOD PROSPECTS THEY’D BE DEVELOPING
* WORLD PRODUCTION OF 85 MILLION BARRELS PER DAY
DECLINED IN 2007.
* Of the top 20 fields ever discovered,
* 18 were discovered between 1917 and 1970’s.
* NOT ONE OF THE TOP 20 OIL FIELDS HAS COME SINCE THE 1970’S.
THE PLANET IS EMPTY OF NEW, LESS DEADLY OIL.
*Killer Oil the World is Awash in, if We’re
That Insanely Inhumane to allow it to be
extracted and sold. Are we? Are you?
* We can expect world oil output to drop to 67 million barrels per day by
2020, a 21% drop from today’s 87 million barrels per day.
* This is an oil supply drop per person of 32% in just 14 years. Are you
thinking about the implications of this?
* The 5% of conventional oil left to be ‘discovered’ is:
* In the virgin, uncleanable, to-be-warred over Arctic as it melts,
* In the virgin, uncleanable, Alaska ANWAR reserves.
* Deep deep deep.
* And this is only enough to delay the inevitable by months, or a few years.
At what price?
* TAR SANDS AND OIL SHALE and carrageen are available in
unimaginably huge, and Satanic quantities.
* Alberta has an estimated 1.1 trillion barrels.
* Venezuela has an estimated .4 trillion barrels.
* The US Rockies oil shale, carrageen it is called, is a massive supply.
* SEVERAL BARRELS OF WATER FOR EACH BARREL OF OIL.
* CANADA’S ALBERTA TAR SANDS CAN SUPPLY ONLY 7% US OIL
NEEDS, 1.4 MILLION BARRELS PER DAY. OH GOD.
*THE ALBERTA TAR SANDS ALONE
WILL EXTERMINATE HUMANITY
IF YOU INSANELY LET IT BE
PULLED FROM THE GROUND.
*It is unspeakably highly carbon intensive production
with massive, extensive use of natural gas, that itself is
almost as carbon intensive as coal, truth be told.
[Extraction releases oceans of methane.]
*2 tons of sand are ripped from the earth for 1 barrel of
oil that is produced.
*The net energy yield is extremely low with 2 out of
each three barrels used simply for production; Tar
Sands is three times DIRTIER than the oil we’ve
*And the rape of the land in the process, is, well, brutal
*As the less-deadly Oil
Goes Scarce, Wars, Price-
Extortion Will Abound…
*RATIONING WILL BE THE NORM.
*PRICES WILL DRIVE UP, AND STAY THERE.
*THE TRANSFER OF WEALTH TO THE
ELITES, AND COUNTRIES THAT HATE US
WILL BE ENORMOUS.
*AND THE WARS FOR SCARCE OIL?
*We’ve been Eating Oil, so,
with No Oil, there will be
No Food. Unless…
*The Oil Army has been
Growing Our Food. [Yes,
oil has been an ‘army’ of
slaves for we westerners.]
* This ‘army’ of oil is our,
* Irrigation pumps,
* Phosphate and potash mining,
* And now, developing countries too are moving from draft
animals to tractors.
* Fertilizer uses 20% of farm energy use, yes, oil. [Urbanization
necessitates that fertilizer replace human waste, as fertilizer.
Your chickens come to roost, in your kid’s house; and the poor.]
* World food exports send nutrients elsewhere, never to return.
* Nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium….
*The Slave Oil Army’s been
Irrigating Our Crops.
*In the US 19% of farm energy use is pumping
water for irrigation.
*India, and in the US, water tables are falling. In
India, 50% of ALL electricity is used for pumping
water from wells, that must be drilled deeper, and
deeper, and deeper every year, until…!!!!!
*No-till farming uses much less water, and is
helping in the few places it is being used.
*The Slave Oil Army’s been
Producing our Food five
ways, in Production and
four more ways.
*In the Kitchen, the largest consumer of energy in
the western food chain.
*The US [Eats] as much Oil
as Entire UK Uses for
*We in the US use 12% of our oil in food just for
transportation from farm to consumer.
*Think of our Air transport of food, fruit, etc.; it has
exploded in recent decades.
*16% of our oil in food is used for canning,
*THE US KITCHEN IS THE
FOOD CHAIN’S GREATEST
COALAND OIL PIT.
*OILAND COAL FOR COOKING.
*REFRIGERATION IS THE BIGGEST
*OIL BASED GRAIN PRODUCTION
CANNOT SURVIVE, WITHOUT
OIL, THE DIRTIEST, DEADLIEST
YET SEEN BY FAR.
*IN THE 20 YEARS BETWEEN 1950 AND 1973 THE
GRAIN HARVEST INCREASED 200%, MORE
THAN SINCE THE VERY BEGINNING OF
AGRICULTURE THOUSANDS OF YEARS AGO.
THANK YOU CRIMINAL OIL POLICY.
*BETWEEN 1950 AND 1990 SCIENCE, AND OIL,
RAISED YIELDS FROM 1.1 TO 2.5 TONS PER
*OMINOUSLY, SINCE 1990 THE HAS GROWTH
SLOWED FROM A 2.2% INCREASE PER YEAR TO
A 1.1% INCREASE.
*THE EASY STEPS ARE DONE NOW. DONE. OH,
WHAT A FUTURE OUR CHILDREN, AND THE
POOR HAVE BEEN GIFTED BY Us.
*THE SOURCES OF THE
23 YEAR FOOD
*IRRIGATION, LARGELY DELIVERED BY
*FERTILIZER USE GROWTH, AGAIN,
THANKS TO OIL.
*AND, HIGH YIELDING VARIETIES OF
GRAIN, CORN, WHEAT, AND RYE.
*THERE HAS BEEN A
DEFICIT, NEGATIVE GRAIN
INCREASE SINCE 1994.
*OH, THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES KNOW.
BUT FOR YOU WESTERNERS, NEVER MIND.
*FOOD PRODUCTION PER PERSON PEAKED
*THERE HAS BEEN A 12% DROP PER
*THIS WOULD MATTER IF YOU WERE
CONNECTED TO THE BILLIONS FOR
WHOM FOOD IS THEIR PRIMARY, MAJOR,
LARGEST EXPENDITURE. NEVER MIND.
*YOUR KIDS WILL DISCOVER THE
CONNECTION. WHAT A SURPRISE IT WILL
DELAYED THE MASS
HUNGER TIDAL WAVE.
*SOYBEANS HAVE PROVIDED A ‘MIRACULOUS’
LIVESTOCK, FISH AND POULTRY SUPPLEMENT,
GREATLY EXTENDING THE WEIGHT AND
NUTRIENT VALUE OF THE OTHER GRAINS
*SOY IS DOMINANT IN WORLD AGRICULTURE
NOW, A METEORIC RISE IN PRODUCTION
DECIMATING GLOBAL FORESTS. PASS THE
CHICKEN, STEAK AND PORK PLEASE.
*BY 1990 MORE LAND WAS USED BY SOY THAN
*BUT ONLY WHEAT, RICE
AND CORN EXPANSION CAN
AVERT WORLD HUNGER.
* 7 OUT OF 8 OF THE LAST YEARS PRODUCTION HAS FALLEN
BELOW CONSUMPTION FOR THESE GRAINS.
* GRAIN RESERVES ARE AT THEIR LOWEST LEVEL IN 34 YEARS.
* THREE DEMANDS ARE OVERWHELMING FARMERS, –
* 78 MILLION NEW PEOPLE PER YEAR,
* BILLIONS OF PEOPLE MOVING UP THE FOOD CHAIN,
* FOOD BEING SHUNTED TO FUEL FOR CARS, NOT FOOD FOR
* AND, FARMERS ARE FACING NEW CONSTRAINTS:
* THE 50 YEAR IRRIGATION EXPANSION HAS ENDED. ENDED.
* IRRIGATION IS NOW SHRINKING :
* WELLS ARE GOING DRY, WATER TABLES ARE FALLING.
* WATER IS BEING MASSIVELY DIVERTED TO CITIES, AWAY FROM
FOOD, AWAY FROM FARMS.
* FOR EXAMPLE, CHINA’S WHEAT HARVEST HAS DROPPED BY
*EVERY 1 DEGREE RISE IN
CARBON = A 10% DECLINE
IN GRAIN YIELDS.
*EVERY 1 DEGREE RISE MEANS:
*MORE EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS, AND,
*MORE INTENSE DROUGHTS.
*You currently have us on Plan A, with an outlook
of a roughly 1 degree rise in temperature every 10
*So, with another 78 million people every year
added, you are taking crop yields down another
40% by mid century. Hmmm. But who will
blame you personally?
*AND, WE’RE DOING IT AT AN ACCELERATING
*URBAN SPRAWL IS GOING GLOBAL, LEAD BY
*INDUSTRIALIZING COUNTRIES LIKE CHINA
ARE FOLLOWING OUR LEAD, LIKE ADDICTS.
*FURIOUSLY WE’RE ALL CONSTRUCTION
HOMES, FACTORIES, ROADS, HIGHWAYS,
PARKING LOTS. GOODBYE CROPLAND.
GOODBYE FOOD. HELLO HUNGER; JUST THE
POOR, AT FIRST.
*OUR CARS ARE
STARVING’S CROPS, AND
WE’RE IN DENIAL.
* WHEN OIL JUMPED ABOVE $60 PER BARREL IN 2005 ETHANOL
* GRAIN USED IN ETHANOL HAS BEEN DOUBLING.
* 1/5TH OF THE US GRAIN HARVEST IS NOW GOING TO FUEL.
* THIS IS LESS THAN 4% OF US FUEL USE, BUT EXTREMELY
PROFITABLE FOR AGRIBUSINESS, EVEN BEFORE YOUR
* BRAZIL USING HALF OF ITS SUGAR CANE HARVEST FOR
* EUROPE INCREASINGLY USES BIODIESEL:
* INCREASINGLY TURNING TO PALM OIL FROM INDONESIAAND
* Which is Causing massive deforestation, ripping out what is left of earth’s
* The Netherlands is withdrawing from the practice ,to avoid climate
destruction, proving that sanity, Humanity is still possible.
*Corn, now the world's dominant feed grain as
well as the leading ethanol feedstock, overtook
wheat roughly a decade ago.
*World corn harvest exceeded 700 million tons.
*Wheat was just under 600 million tons.
*Rice was 420 million tons.
*These constitute 85 percent of the 2-billion-ton
world grain harvest.
*The corn harvest of Iowa is immense, the
leading corn-producing state. It exceeds the
entire grain harvest of Canada, for example.
*And it is ours to squander how we wish, right?
Might makes right, right?
*Wow, just imagine what we’d do if we weren’t a
*Planned and in the words are Iowa distilleries slated
to consume 2.7 billion bushels, for our cars, not
*Uh, the total Iowa corn harvest only 2.2 billion
*Japan, Egypt, and Mexico are the leading importers
of US grain. Sorry folks, you’ll have to go
elsewhere. Oops, there is no elsewhere. Tough.
*In September 2007 food prices nearly doubled
those of 2 years earlier. Ka-ching, ka-ching.
*Wheat prices more than doubled.
*Soy prices went up more than half.
*2007 tortilla price shot up 60%. (Let them eat
*Crowds of 75,000 protested in the streets, but not
US streets, thanks to ICE.
*Government price controls were instituted.
*Italy saw pasta boycotts due to skyrocketing prices.
*The UK too is worrying about rising bread prices.
*The emerging competition between the owners
of the world's 860 million automobiles and the
2 billion poorest people is uncharted territory
for humanity, but not for inhumanity. And here
comes China with another 1 billion cars.
*The average income of the world's automobile
owners is roughly $30,000 a year. They are
NOT the 4 billion of our brothers and sisters
existing on $4 per day, or less.
*The 4 percent of U.S. automotive fuel
currently supplied from ethanol could be
achieved several times over, and at a fraction
of the cost, simply by raising auto fuel-
efficiency standards by 20 percent. Yes, at a
fraction of the cost. But no worries, who is
going to blame you personally?
*Plus, the poor of the world can’t reach you.
Never mind about our US children in uniform.
*The major alternatives include:
*Electric cars and plug-in hybrids.
* Wind is available for the gasoline equivalent of less
than $1 a gallon, with today’s technologies.
*Liquid fuel from fast-growing trees, switchgrass,
prairie grass mixtures, or other cellulosic materials,
which can be grown on wasteland are pretty easily
within reach, if we decide this is important.
*Jatropha, a golf ball-sized fruit with seeds
containing oil that can be turned into biodiesel;
Jatropha diesel can be produced for $43 per barrel.
*Microalgae, water hyacinth, and the list of
alternatives goes on.
*Few countries are planning for a reduction in
*The U.S. Department of Energy expects world
oil consumption to go from roughly 85 million
barrels or so a day at present to close to 120
million barrels a day by 2030??!!?!?!??! This is
madness. In a democracy, the buck stops, with
*Until 1900, urbanization was, with a few
exceptions, a slow, barely perceptible process.
*When the last century began, there were only a few
cities with a million people. Today there are more
than 400 such cities, and 20 mega-cities have 10
million or more residents.
*The metabolism of cities depends on concentrating
vast amounts of food, water, and materials and then
dispersing the resulting garbage and human waste.
*Only with oil, and secondarily coal, was this
possible. Ah, affloholism. Isn’t it grand?
*Food will become more costly, yes, even for
the real people, we affloholic westerners.
*Diets will be altered as people move down the
food chain, or out of the food chain, all
*Diets will thus become more closely attuned to
local products and more seasonal in nature,
and for billions of us, that will mean sand, or in
the case of our men and women in uniform,
*Did you know that the emissions per passenger
on a trans-Atlantic flight is measured in tons of
*But of course, look at all the Good that does
for the true owners of the planet! You know,
the 4 billion poor. Right?
*Your United States burns more gasoline than the
next 20 countries combined.
*Will world population growth survive a continuing
decline in world oil production? At what level of
*How will a shrinking oil supply be allocated among
countries? By the market? By negotiated
international agreements? By war? Not by sane,
humane, compassionate, war-time-speed switch to
efficiency, wind, solar, and non-food biofuel, right?
*Can civilization itself survive the stresses associated
with falling oil production at a time when food
prices are rising and the stresses from climate
change are mounting? Business as usual, Plan A?
*50 years of hunger reduction is now being reversed.
Recent reports indicate that the halving of hunger
committed for 2015 is being moved out to after 2100 –
MDG, Millennial Development Goals. No worries, only
the poor and our kids in uniform will soon be affected.
*In 2007, James Morris, head of the U.N. World Food
Programme (WFP), announced that 18,000 children are
now dying each day from hunger and related causes,
with some overlap with the 26,000 kids that die each
day largely due to lack of clean water, easily
preventable by non-affloholics.
*The number of people in developing countries who are
hungry and malnourished, which declined from 960
million in 1970 to 800 million in 1996, has turned
upward, reaching 830 million in 2003.
*United States, by far the largest food aid donor, saw
the price of a ton of food aid in 2007 climb to $611, up
from $363 per ton in 2004.
*FAO and WFP each year release an assessment of crop
and food conditions that lists the countries in dire
need of food assistance.
*In May 2007, a total of 33 countries with a combined
population of 763 million were on this list.
*17 were in need of external food assistance because of
recent civil strife and conflict.
*The top 20 list of failing states, including Afghanistan,
Burundi, Cote d'lvoire, the Democratic Republic of the
Congo, Guinea, Pakistan, Somalia, Sudan, and Zimbab-