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PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1


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PLAN B NO BS - C. Saving Creation - Bottom Line Summary, Budget of Plan B. C7-13 V1

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  3. 3. 1. Kill the Carbon Market Scam, to charge the cost of Carbon Pollution now, to the polluters. This alone will ENABLE THE MARKET, YOU, to re-direct funds away from Coal, Oil, to Renewable Energy – Wind, Sun.2. Pull Global and National Defense out of the dark ages, to face TODAYS Security Threat – FAILING STATES, due to I. Poverty, II. Population, III. Resource Rape and IV. Global Warming. *
  4. 4. 1. Two children per couple. 11. TV, radio as tools.2. Universal basic 12. Dry compost toilets. education. 13. Oral rehydration.3. Teacher training. 14. Reduce cigarette smoking.4. Scholarships. 15. Protect non-smokers.5. Focus on girls. 16. Condoms.6. Adult literacy. 17. AIDS medications.7. School lunch program 18. Reduce developed world farm subsidies.8. Global WIC – Women, Infants, Children 19. Reduce developing world debt. .9. Stabilize population at 8 billion by 2041.10. Universally available * family planning.
  5. 5. * Bangladesh, analysts concluded that $62 spent by the government to prevent an unwanted birth saved $615 in expenditures on other social services, a 900%, 10 fold return.* Reproductive health and family planning services leaves more fiscal resources per child for education and health care, thus accelerating the escape from poverty.* $7.9 billion gap *
  6. 6. * Village-level clinic, would yield enormous economic benefits for developing countries and for the world as a whole.* Providing basic universal health care in developing countries will require donor grants totaling $27 billion in 2007, scaled up to $38 billion in 2015, or an average of $33 billion per year. In addition to * basic services, this $33 billion includes funding for the global fund to * fight AIDS, * tuberculosis and * malaria and for * universal childhood vaccinations. *
  7. 7. * Dealing with the HIV threat requires roughly 13.1 billion condoms a year in the developing world and eastern Europe.* Including those needed for contraception adds another 4.4 billion.* But of the 17.5 billion condoms needed, only 1.8 billion are being distributed, leaving a shortfall of 15.7 billion.* At only 3.5c each, or $550 million, the cost of saved lives by supplying condoms is minuscule.* If we assume that logistics, training, education, etc. Costs are six times the price of the condoms themselves, filling this gap would still cost only $3 billion. *
  8. 8. * Severely limited compared with the need.* 4.6 million people who exhibited symptoms of AIDS in sub- Saharan Africa in 2006, just over 1 million were receiving the anti-retroviral drug treatment that is widely available in industrial countries – just 25%; a 75% shortfall (death- fall).* The prospect of treatment encourages people to get tested for HIV – and raises awareness and understanding of the disease and how it is transmitted.*
  9. 9. * Accelerate the shift to smaller families.* Filling several funding gaps * Reach universal primary education; * Fight infectious diseases, such as AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria; * Provide reproductive health care; * Contain the HIV epidemic* The initiatives discussed in this chapter are estimated to cost another $77 billion a year. *
  10. 10. * Heaviest investments in this effort center on education and health: * Cornerstones of both human capital development and * Population stabilization.* Education: * Universal primary education and a * Global campaign to eradicate adult illiteracy.* Health care includes * The basic interventions to control infectious diseases, * Beginning with childhood vaccinations. *
  11. 11. 1. Breed crops that are more 10. Fish polyculture. tolerant of drought and cold. 11. Roughage for fodder.2. Multicrop land. 12. Fortified salt.3. Additional fertilization in 13. Move poor up the food- Africa. chain.4. Secure land ownership.Raise water, nutrient 14. Eradicate Poverty.productivity: 15. STABILIZE CLIMATE.5. Raise irrigation efficiency. 16. Lower-footprint6. Raise price on water. transportation.6. Move over-privileged down 17. Lower-footprint housing. food-chain.7. Limit to yield of aquifers 18. TERMINATE FOOD INTO and rivers. FUEL.8. Produce protein more efficiently.9. Grain, then chicken, Herbivorous fish. *
  12. 12. 1. Protect, restore forests. 11. Reduce herd size.2. Reduce wood use. 12. Bring forage to herd.3. Recycle paper. 13. Global clear-cut ban.4. Efficient 3rd world 14. Regenerate fisheries. stoves, energy – 15. Reduce fertilizer, sewage wood, sun, wind. runoff.5. Sustainable forestry. 16. End fishery subsidies.6. Reconstituted wood. 17. Protect diversity.7. Equatorial tree 18. Water management, for plantations. fish.8. Reforest waste, eroded 19. Parks, reserves. land. 20. Plant trees to sequester carbon - billions.9. Conserve, rebuild soils. 21. END DEFORESTATION.10. Conservation tillage. *
  13. 13. 1. Reforest the earth,2. Protect top- soil,3. Restore rangelands and fisheries,4. Stabilize water tables, and5. Protect biological diversity.* Note - forested area is already expanding in the northern hemispheres industrial countries. *
  14. 14. * Seedlings cost $40 per thousand, 4 cents each. * $80 per hectare, at 2000 seedlings per hectare.* Planting labor largely voluntary - $400 per hectare including seedlings.* With a total of 150 million hectares to be planted over the next decade, this will come to roughly 15 million hectares per year at $400 each for an annual expenditure of $6 billion. *
  15. 15. *Two principal steps: *1st - Retire the highly erodible land that cannot sustain cultivation. * The estimated one tenth of the worlds cropland that accounts for perhaps half of all excess erosion. *For the United States, that has meant retiring 14 million hectares. * $125 per hectare. * In total, annual payments to farmers to plant this land in grass or trees under 10- year contracts approached $2 billion.*Reducing erosion to the rate of new soil formation or below.
  16. 16. * Land that is subject to excessive erosion— that is, erosion that exceeds the natural rate of new soil formation. * Incentives to encourage farmers to adopt conservation practices such as: a. Contour farming, b. Strip cropping, and, increasingly, c. Minimum-till or no-till farming * In the United States total roughly $1 billion per year. * The total for the world to retire vulnerable land would be roughly $16 billion annually.*
  17. 17. * UN estimates that it would cost roughly $183 billion over a 20-year restoration period—or $9 billion per year. a. Improved rangeland management, b. Financial incentives to eliminate overstocking, and c. Revegetation with appropriate rest periods, when grazing would be banned.* Every dollar invested in rangeland restoration yields a return of $2.50 in income from the increased productivity of the rangeland ecosystem. *
  18. 18. * Establishment of a worldwide network of marine reserves, which would cover roughly 30 percent of the oceans surface.* Estimated range of expenditures centers on $13 billion per year. *
  19. 19. * Shortfall in funding needed to manage and to protect existing areas designated as parks comes to roughly $25 billion a year.* Additional areas needed, including those encompassing the biologically diverse hotspots not yet included in designated parks, would cost perhaps another $6 billion a year,* Yielding a total of $31 billion. *
  20. 20. * Disseminating the results: * Work through agricultural extension services. * Work through the water users associations.* Requires knowledge of the amount of water being pumped and aquifer recharge rates. * In most countries this information is simply not available. * May mean installing meters on irrigation well pumps, * As has been done in Jordan and Mexico.* Removing subsidies will effectively raise the price of water, thus encouraging its more efficient use.* It will take additional expenditures of $10 billion.*
  21. 21. * Restoring the earth will require additional expenditures of $113 billion per year.* Many will ask, can the world afford this? But the only appropriate question is,* Can the world afford to not make these investments? *
  22. 22. 1. Redesign urban 6. Urban farming. Transport. 7. Upgrade, integrate2. Charge cars to enter squatter city. settlements.3. Bike friendliness. 8. Stop need for4. Massively reduced squatter water use. settlements.5. Composting toilets. 9. Eliminate parking subsidies. *
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  24. 24. Plan B Energy Efficiency Measures From Plan October 2009
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  26. 26. * This will require a near doubling of capacity every two years, up from the doubling every three years for the last decade. * It will mean .0001 gigawatt for every 2,500 of the worlds projected 2020 population of 7.5 billion people. * Denmark—with .0001 gigawatt for every 1,700 people— is already well beyond this goal. * Spain will likely exceed this per capita goal before 2010 and * Germany shortly thereafter.* Plan B involves a crash program to develop 3,000 gigawatts of wind generating capacity by 2020; “ 3000 ‘COAL PLANTS’ WORTH.
  27. 27. * 65 million cars the world produces each year.* At $3 million per installed turbine, this would involve investing $4.5 trillion over the next dozen years, or $375 billion per year.* World oil and gas capital expenditures that are projected to reach $1 trillion per year by 2016.* Wind turbines can be mass-produced on assembly lines.* The idled capacity in the U.S. automobile industry is sufficient – and the skilled, idled workers.* 2 million
  28. 28. World Electricity Generation by Source in2008 and in the Plan B Economy of 2020
  29. 29. Plan B Carbon Dioxide EmissionsReduction Goals for 2020
  30. 30. * Development of 5,153 gigawatts of new renewable generating capacity by 2020, vs. 5,153 coal plants. * Over half of it from wind. * More than enough to replace all the coal and oil and 70 percent of the natural gas now used to generate electricity.* The addition of 1,530 gigawatts of thermal capacity by 2020 will reduce the use of both oil and gas for heating buildings and water. Roughly two thirds of this growth will come from rooftop solar water and space heaters *
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  32. 32. *Task A: Terminate Market Blindness to Ecological, Environmental Services, Value and Destruction, Pollution.*Task B: Create National Security Machine focused forward to 21st Century Threats – FAILING STATES. *
  33. 33. * Incorporating the increased health care costs associated with mining it and breathing polluted air,* The costs of damage from acid rain, and* The costs of climate disruption,* The costs of REMEDIATING THE DAMAGE THAT TODAY WE COULD PREVENT ……Would encourage investment in clean renewablesources of energy such as wind or solar. *
  34. 34. * Paid by the primary producers—the oil or coal companies.* New prices can be used by all economic decision-makers to make more intelligent decisions. *To restructure theenergy economy - carbon tax (like on cigarettes).
  35. 35. *Worldwide carbon tax of $240 per ton to be phased in at the rate of $20 per year between 2008 and 2020.
  36. 36. * Indirect costs to society: * Climate change, * Oil industry tax breaks, * Oil supply protection (war machine), * Oil industry subsidies, and * Treatment of auto exhaust-related respiratory illnesses. * REMEDIATING THE DAMAGE THAT OTHERWISE OUR CHILDREN WILL PAY FOR.*$12 per gallon.* These are real costs. Someone bears them. If not our children, and their us, children…. *
  37. 37. * Gasoline taxes in Italy, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom averaging $4.40 per gallon are almost halfway there.* The average U.S. gas tax of 47 cents per gallon, scarcely one tenth that in Europe, helps explain why more gasoline is used in the United States than in the next 20 countries combined.* Phasing in a gasoline tax of 40 cents per gallon per year for the next 12 years, for a total rise of $4.80 a gallon, and offsetting it with a reduction in income taxes would raise the U.S. gas tax to the $4- 5 per gallon prevailing today in Europe and Japan, about $1,800 per ton, as in Europe, roughly 10 times today’s tax. *
  38. 38. * Values of services that trees provide, such as flood control and carbon sequestration. *Stumpage tax. * Market for lumber would then be based on ecologically honest prices. * Would reduce tree cutting and encourage wood reuse and paper recycling. *
  39. 39. * Shifting these subsidies to the development of climate-clean energy sources such as wind, solar, biomass, and geothermal power will help stabilize the earths climate.* Shifting subsidies from road construction to rail construction could increase mobility in many situations.* Shifting the $22 billion in annual fishing industry subsidies, which encourage destructive overfishing, to the creation of marine parks to regenerate fisheries would be a giant step in restoring oceanic fisheries. *Rational, Responsible Subsidy-shifting toCreation, not Destruction.
  40. 40. * Need to cut net carbon dioxide emissions 80 percent by 2020.*1. Electricity and heat: * Replacing fossil fuels with renewable sources - 3.1 billion tons by 2020. * Phasing out the use of coal reducing the 3 million deaths from air pollution each year. *Summing Up Climate Stabilization Technology Measures.
  41. 41. * Greatly reduced use of oil will eliminate close to 1.2 billion tons of carbon emissions. a. Plug-in hybrid cars that will run on carbon-free sources of electricity such as wind. b. Remainder comes largely from shifting long- haul freight from trucks to trains, c. Electrifying freight and passenger trains,* Using green electricity to power them. *2, 3. Transport sector.
  42. 42. * Net deforestation of the earth is responsible for an estimated 1.5 billion tons of carbon emissions per year.* A number of countries already have total or partial bans. *4. Bring deforestation to a halt, and reforest by 2020.
  43. 43. * Forestation of wastelands will fix more than .95 billion tons of carbon each year.* Similarly ambitious planting of trees to control flooding, reduce rainfall runoff to recharge aquifers, and protect soils from erosion. *
  44. 44. * Fix an estimated .6 billion tons of carbon per year.a. Minimum- or no-till cropland.b. Planting more cover crops during the off- season.c. Using more perennials instead of annuals in cropping patterns, e.g., using less corn and more switchgrass to produce fuel ethanol. *5. Sequester Carbon thru Land Management.
  45. 45. * Summer 2006 Japanese men encouraged to not wear jackets and ties.* I just lost 3,500 pounds. Ask me how." When asked, he said he had sold his car. Replacing a 3,500- pound car with a 22-pound bicycle obviously reduces energy use dramatically, but it also reduces materials use by 99 percent, indirectly saving still more energy. *
  46. 46. * Energy differences between a diet rich in red meat and a plant-based diet is roughly the same as the energy- use difference between driving a Chevrolet Suburban sports utility vehicle and a Toyota Prius gas-electric hybrid.* Those of us with diets rich in livestock products can do both ourselves and civilization a favor by moving down the food chain. *
  47. 47. Plan B Energy Efficiency Measures From Plan October 2009
  48. 48. World Electricity Generation by Source in2008 and in the Plan B Economy of 2020
  49. 49. Plan B Carbon Dioxide EmissionsReduction Goals for 2020
  50. 50. * We can drop carbon dioxide emissions in 2020 more than 80 percent below todays levels1. Replacing fossil fuels in electricity generation.2. Switching to plug-in hybrid cars.3. Going to all-electric railways.4. Banning deforestation.5. Sequestering carbon by planting trees and improving soil management.6. Conservation.7. Dietary Changes.*
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  52. 52. * Fashion a coherent policy toward each weak and failing state.* Threats to security are now coming less from military power and more from the trends that undermine states: 1. Rapid population growth, 2. Poverty, 3. Deteriorating environmental support systems, and 4. Spreading water shortages.*What is needed now is a new cabinet-level agency—a Department of Global Security.
  53. 53. * Funded by shifting fiscal resources from the Department of Defense. In effect, the DGS budget would be the new defense budget.* Focus on the central sources of state failure. 1. Helping to stabilize population, 2. Restore environmental support systems, 3. Eradicate poverty, 4. Provide universal primary school education, and 5. Strengthen the rule of law through bolstering police forces and court systems. *
  54. 54. * One year of compulsory public service for its young people.* Teach in inner-city schools.* Environmental clean-up programs.* Plant trees.* Restore and maintain the infrastructure in national parks.
  55. 55. * Teaching and helping to organize family planning,* Tree planting, and* Micro-lending programs, while* Developing a sense of civic pride and social responsibility. *
  56. 56. * Highly skilled in such fields as management, accounting, law, education and medicine.* Eager to be of use.* Talents could be mobilized through a voluntary senior service corps.* Provide the skills so lacking in failing-state governments.* Conditions now require a much more ambitious, systematic effort to tap this talent pool.*