Chapter 1 - Entering a new world<br />Scientists horrified by glacier melt acceleration<br />In 10 years projected rise in...
Nature is the Timekeeper, and were out of time.<br />shrinking forests <br />expanding deserts <br />falling water tables ...
33’ Sea level rise – <br />6oo million refugees - twice US population<br />
Time is up – race between scientific and political tipping points<br />Will Greenland melting become irreversible?<br />Or...
There are many environmental tipping points<br />Water is running out world wide<br />Will we stabilize population?<br />O...
Failing States – Early Sign of Failing Civilization<br />Iraq, Sudan, Somalia, Chad, Congo, Haiti…<br />List grows Every y...
MASSIVE MARKET FAILURE IS DESTROYING US<br />World bank Economist Nicholas Study<br />MARKET FAILS TO INCORPORATE FOSSIL F...
MASSIVE HUMAN GROWTH IN LAST CENTURY<br />Enterprise 20 fold<br />Population 4 fold<br />We now exceed the ability of eart...
Indirect costs of burning fossil fuel CAN EXCEED THE DIRECT COSTS OF COAL<br />NEGLECTING THESE COSTS UNDERVALUES THE MARK...
MARKET DOES NOT INCORPORATE INDIRECT COSTS – EXTERNALITIES<br />Natures  contribution<br />Destruction of the environment<...
Examples in US<br />Gas price in 2007 $3 / gal<br />ONLY SHOWS PRODUCTION PRICE<br />HIDES HIDES HIDES FULL PRICE – <br />...
MUST RESTRUCTURE PAST SYSTEMS<br />MUST INCORPORATE FULL COST TO SOCIETY<br />
EXAMPLE OF HIDING ENVIRONMENTAL COSTS<br />1998<br />China’s Yangtze River Valley<br />400 people’s home<br />Worst floodi...
ENRON – MOST WIDELY LOVED COMPANY<br />7TH MOST VALUABLE CO IN US 2001<br />THEN… INDEPENDENT AUDITORS…<br />Co HAD LEFT C...
WE’RE DOING WHAT ENRON DID – LEAVING COSTS OFF THE BOOKS<br />IF WE INCORPORATE THE INDIRECT COSTS WE’RE HEADED TOWARD COL...
THE ‘INVISIBLE HAND’ OF THE MARKET IS BLIND TO EXTERNALITIES<br />TREATS MASSIVE SUBSIDIES TO OIL COMPANIES AS IF THEY ARE...
EARLIER CIVILIZATIONS ALSO GOT IN TROUBLE<br />ENVIRONMENTALLY INDUCED ECONOMIC COLLAPSE<br />Iceland 600 yrs ago averted ...
Humans Extraordinary Growth this last Century…<br />GDP now measured in Trillions, once in Billions<br />2007 GDP Growth E...
WE ARE MEETING DEMANDS BY CONSUMING OUR CHILDREN’S RESOURCES<br />
OUR EXISTENCE IS WHOLLY DEPENDED ON EARTH’S NATURAL RESOURCES<br />Climate hospitable for agriculture<br />Hydrological pr...
WE ALL DEPEND ON PRODUCTS AND SERVICES OF EARTHS SYSTEMS.<br />Forests<br />Oceans<br />Wetlands<br />
EARTH’S SERVICES INCLUDE…<br />water purification, <br />pollination, <br />carbon sequestration, <br />flood control, <br...
15 of 24 major ecosystems being Degraded or Pushed Beyond Limits<br />40 Yr. Study of Global Eco Systems<br />1360 scienti...
TIPPING POINT - Were pushing the RAINFOREST TO BURN<br />Rainforests 20% cleared so far<br />Cattle<br />Soybean Farming<b...
Overconsumption is collapsing Global – <br />Forests<br />Fisheries<br />Wells, Water supplies<br />
Resource collapse creates refugees<br />
China proves the EXISTING ECONOMIC MODEL IS SUICIDE<br />China has 4x the population of US<br />China consumes more resour...
What if China catches up to US in per capita consumption?  Expected by 2030<br />GLOBAL FORESTS GONE - 2x as much paper as...
THE WESTERN ECONOMIC MODEL IS DOOM TO US ALL<br />Fossil Fuel Based<br />Auto centric<br />Throw away<br />IF IT WON’T WOR...
OVERRIDING CHALLENGE FOR OUR GENERATION – BUILD AN ECONOMY BASED ON RENEWABLE RESOURCES<br />Renewable energy<br />Diversi...
Governments collapse when <br />Can’t provide food<br />Can’t provide security<br />Education<br />Health care<br />Lose c...
Failing states – GREATEST THREAT TO GLOBAL SECURITY<br />Lack healthcare<br />Become sources of global disease<br />Non-st...
State Failure usually causes environmental destruction<br />Deforestation<br />Desertification<br />Soil erosion<br />Shri...
Deteriorating environmental systems and poverty reinforce each other<br />Donors avoid for security reasons<br />State fai...
Failing states hurts ability to respond to international needs<br />Controlling spread of infectious diseases<br />Maintai...
URGENCY is needed to avoid TIPPING POINTS<br />Shrinking species populations beyond recovery<br />Over-fishing<br />
Social tipping points<br />Single issues or simultaneous multiple threats<br />Economically advanced can handle it, but no...
Even advanced countries are getting overwhelmed<br />Falling water tables<br />Expected – policy would stabilize aquifers<...
These problems can lead to failure of Civilization<br />Analyze the effects of mounting stresses on global systems<br />Fo...
Farmers are failing to keep pace with population growth<br />Falling water tables<br />Converting crop land to other uses<...
US – WORLD’S BREAD BASKET – NOW TURNING GRAIN INTO OIL<br />UP TO 30% OF RECENT CROPS GO TO FUEL<br />DRIVING WORLD GRAIN ...
STATE FAILURE CAN BE QUICK AND UNEXPECTED<br />ON ENVIRONMENTAL FAILURE CAN DO IT<br />NOW WE HAVE MULTIPLE<br />NOW STATE...
Plan B shaped what may save Civilization – NOT by Political Correctness<br />Requires attacking on multiple fronts<br />En...
Extraordinary challenge – much hope<br />We have the EXISTING TECHNOLOGY<br />EVERYTHING NEEDED HAS BEEN DONE SOMEWHERE<br...
Examples of what is possible<br />Denmark 20% of energy from wind – headed to 60%<br />60m Europeans get electricity from ...
Examples of what is possible<br />South Korea – Reforested to 60% from near zero<br />US – in 20 years reduced soil erosio...
New technologies available permitting new outcomes<br />Plug-in Hybrids plus Wind Farms –DRIVING ON WIND – at ‘$1 a gallon...
THE TIME IS NOW BEFORE ECONOMIC COLLAPSE<br />
NEXT 5 CHAPTERS – THE ENVIRONMENTAL, DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC CHALLENGES<br />THEN 7 CHAPTERS – ROADMAP OF WHERE WE NEED T...
PROMISING TRENDS OF THE MID 2000’S HAVE EVAPORATED<br />
Ban the bulb if global could reduce the equivalent of 700 coal fired power plants<br />
IF WE WANT WE CAN CREATE A NEW ECONOMY<br />We could breathe clean air<br />Cities less noisy, polluted, congested,  more ...
Chapter 2 Deteriorating Food and Oil Security<br />
20th Century was the oil century<br />1900 – the world produced 150 million barrels of oil<br />28billin barrels <br />180...
PRODUCTION SOON FALLING<br />1981 was the peak of new discoveries<br />2006 – world pumped 38 billion barrels but discover...
Food and oil are hugely linked<br />1950-72 bushel of wheat could be traded for barrel of oil - $2<br />In late 2007 took ...
PEAK OIL IS UPON US<br />New production follows new discovery by about 40 years<br />[insert data chart]<br />1970 US prod...
Pre-peakers – Russia – WORLD’S LARGEST PRODUCER<br />Eclipsed Saudi Arabia 2006<br />Canada – deadly tar sands<br />Kazakh...
Approaching production decline<br />Mexico<br />US 2nd largest suppliers<br />2004 3.4 million barrels per day<br />Key fi...
Major oil companies<br />Have not been any dramatic increases in exploration and development<br />Seems that 95% of world’...
THE AGE OF DIRTY, DANGEROUS, COSTLY OIL?<br />We can expect to drop to 67 million bpd by 2020 – a 21% drop<br />Oil supply...
TAR SANDS ARE OUR DEATH<br />Highly carbon intensive production – extensive use of natural gas<br />2 tons of sand for 1 b...
WHEN PRODUCING COMPANIES AND COUNTRIES FACE THE FACT OF REDUCTION – <br />THEY’LL RATION<br />PRICES WILL DRIVE UP<br />
EFFECT ON FOOD SUPPLY / COST OF FOOD<br />
AGRICULTURE MASSIVELY OIL DEPENDENT<br />Tractors<br />Irrigation pumps<br />Fertilizer<br />Phosphate and potash mining<b...
Irrigation – manor energy user – INCREASING as water tables drop<br />US – 19% of farm energy use<br />India – water table...
Agriculture accounts for 1/5th of energy in us food system<br />Transport<br />processing, <br />packaging, <br />marketin...
US food economy uses as much energy as entire UK economy<br />12% for transportation from farm to consumer<br />Air transp...
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Plan b 3.0 intro chaper 1 Entering a new world

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Study materials for most important book on global warming and how to save civilization in the 9 years left.

FULL BOOK / STUDY VIDEO http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL8AFD25829E2E7672 MATT DAMON MOVIE http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLFF70874A57E11BC1 AUDIO BOOK MP3 http://thepiratebay.org/torrent/6531161/PLAN_B_3.0_-_SAVING_CIVILIZATION_IN_T... BOOK ONLINE PDF FREE http://www.earth-policy.org/images/uploads/book_files/pb3book.pdf POWERPOINTS http://www.slideshare.net/StartLoving

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Plan b 3.0 intro chaper 1 Entering a new world

  1. 1. Chapter 1 - Entering a new world<br />Scientists horrified by glacier melt acceleration<br />In 10 years projected rise in sea levels went from 1.5’ to 6’ by century’s end – 4X UNDERESTIMATE<br />Ice flow speed exceeds anything the scientists imagined<br />Asia’s primary glacier is melting faster than imaginable – could disappear in decades<br />Asia’s glaciers are Asia’s Agricultural Reservoir<br />
  2. 2. Nature is the Timekeeper, and were out of time.<br />shrinking forests <br />expanding deserts <br />falling water tables <br />collapsing fisheries <br />disappearing species <br />rising temperatures<br />Greenland Ice Sheet melt rises see 23’<br />W. Antarctic Ice Sheet melt rises 19’<br />
  3. 3. 33’ Sea level rise – <br />6oo million refugees - twice US population<br />
  4. 4. Time is up – race between scientific and political tipping points<br />Will Greenland melting become irreversible?<br />Or will we phase out coal power plants fast enough?<br />
  5. 5. There are many environmental tipping points<br />Water is running out world wide<br />Will we stabilize population?<br />Or watch death and wars over water?<br />Demographic trap – <br />Poverty begets population growth and <br />Population growth begets poverty<br />Countries collapse under these unresolved problems – Failing States<br />
  6. 6. Failing States – Early Sign of Failing Civilization<br />Iraq, Sudan, Somalia, Chad, Congo, Haiti…<br />List grows Every year<br />Civilization fails after how many states fail?<br />
  7. 7. MASSIVE MARKET FAILURE IS DESTROYING US<br />World bank Economist Nicholas Study<br />MARKET FAILS TO INCORPORATE FOSSIL FUEL ECONOMIC COSTS<br />TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS<br />
  8. 8. MASSIVE HUMAN GROWTH IN LAST CENTURY<br />Enterprise 20 fold<br />Population 4 fold<br />We now exceed the ability of earth to replenish resources<br />
  9. 9. Indirect costs of burning fossil fuel CAN EXCEED THE DIRECT COSTS OF COAL<br />NEGLECTING THESE COSTS UNDERVALUES THE MARKET – ECONOMIC DISTORTIONS<br />SOUND DECISIONS CAN’T BE MADE – MUST KNOW FULL PRICE OF PRODUCT<br />THREATENING CIVILIZATION<br />
  10. 10. MARKET DOES NOT INCORPORATE INDIRECT COSTS – EXTERNALITIES<br />Natures contribution<br />Destruction of the environment<br />Future costs to Future generations<br />
  11. 11. Examples in US<br />Gas price in 2007 $3 / gal<br />ONLY SHOWS PRODUCTION PRICE<br />HIDES HIDES HIDES FULL PRICE – <br />Environmental destruction<br />Military costs<br />Health costs<br />Blood of our soldiers<br />Global / Mid East animosity to US<br />$12 PER GALLON FUTURE COST TO OUR CHILDREN!!!<br />MARKET SAYS IT IS CHEEP!!!!<br />
  12. 12. MUST RESTRUCTURE PAST SYSTEMS<br />MUST INCORPORATE FULL COST TO SOCIETY<br />
  13. 13. EXAMPLE OF HIDING ENVIRONMENTAL COSTS<br />1998<br />China’s Yangtze River Valley<br />400 people’s home<br />Worst flooding in history - $30 billion cost<br />Cost exceeded total value of rice harvest<br />CHINA THEN BANNED LOGGING THERE<br />TREES STANDING WORTH 3X TREES CUT – FLOOD CONTROL SERVICES<br />MARKET WAS OFF BY FACTOR OF 3!!!!!!!!!<br />
  14. 14. ENRON – MOST WIDELY LOVED COMPANY<br />7TH MOST VALUABLE CO IN US 2001<br />THEN… INDEPENDENT AUDITORS…<br />Co HAD LEFT CERTAIN COSTS OFF THE BOOK<br />ENRON WAS WORTHLESS<br />$90 STOCKS WENT TO PENNEY'S PER SHARE<br />COLLAPSE WAS COMPLETE<br />IT NO LONGER EXISTS<br />
  15. 15. WE’RE DOING WHAT ENRON DID – LEAVING COSTS OFF THE BOOKS<br />IF WE INCORPORATE THE INDIRECT COSTS WE’RE HEADED TOWARD COLLAPSE<br />We need CITIZEN LEADERS!!!!<br />
  16. 16. THE ‘INVISIBLE HAND’ OF THE MARKET IS BLIND TO EXTERNALITIES<br />TREATS MASSIVE SUBSIDIES TO OIL COMPANIES AS IF THEY ARE DESERVED<br />
  17. 17. EARLIER CIVILIZATIONS ALSO GOT IN TROUBLE<br />ENVIRONMENTALLY INDUCED ECONOMIC COLLAPSE<br />Iceland 600 yrs ago averted collapse by restricting herd size to sustainable levels<br />Samaria BC destroyed itself by destroying its cropland<br />The Mayan civilization destroyed itself by destroying its environment – trees, causing erosion, killing food supply<br />
  18. 18. Humans Extraordinary Growth this last Century…<br />GDP now measured in Trillions, once in Billions<br />2007 GDP Growth Exceeded ALL of the 1900 economy<br />earth's natural capacities, such as its ability to supply fresh water, forest products, and seafood, have not increased<br />Economy Exponential Growth ECLIPSES now environmental capacity to support it.<br />1980 WE SURPASSED EARTHS REGENERATIVE CAPACITY!<br />WE’RE NOW SURPASSING SUSTAINABLE YIELDS BY 25%<br />
  19. 19. WE ARE MEETING DEMANDS BY CONSUMING OUR CHILDREN’S RESOURCES<br />
  20. 20. OUR EXISTENCE IS WHOLLY DEPENDED ON EARTH’S NATURAL RESOURCES<br />Climate hospitable for agriculture<br />Hydrological processes for water<br />Geological processes producing soil<br />Forests are shrinking<br />Grasslands turning to desert<br />Pumping underground water depleting available supply<br />
  21. 21. WE ALL DEPEND ON PRODUCTS AND SERVICES OF EARTHS SYSTEMS.<br />Forests<br />Oceans<br />Wetlands<br />
  22. 22. EARTH’S SERVICES INCLUDE…<br />water purification, <br />pollination, <br />carbon sequestration, <br />flood control, <br />soil conservation<br />
  23. 23. 15 of 24 major ecosystems being Degraded or Pushed Beyond Limits<br />40 Yr. Study of Global Eco Systems<br />1360 scientists<br />¾ Fisheries collapsing<br />
  24. 24. TIPPING POINT - Were pushing the RAINFOREST TO BURN<br />Rainforests 20% cleared so far<br />Cattle<br />Soybean Farming<br />22% degraded by road building and forestry<br />Desert will result if they burn<br />Roughly 100 BILLION TONS OF CARBON WILL BE ADDED TO THE ATMOSPHERE. STAYS THERE FOR UP TO 800 YEARS.<br />
  25. 25. Overconsumption is collapsing Global – <br />Forests<br />Fisheries<br />Wells, Water supplies<br />
  26. 26. Resource collapse creates refugees<br />
  27. 27. China proves the EXISTING ECONOMIC MODEL IS SUICIDE<br />China has 4x the population of US<br />China consumes more resources than the US<br />Grain, meat, steel<br />1/3 more grain<br />Double US meat consumption<br />3x steel<br />
  28. 28. What if China catches up to US in per capita consumption? Expected by 2030<br />GLOBAL FORESTS GONE - 2x as much paper as produced worldwide per day<br />1.1 BILLION CARS – world currently has 860m<br />Needing roads and parking lots equal to their agricultural land area<br />98 million barrels per day – MORE THAN THE 90M BARRELS PRODUCED TODAY – THE EXPECTED PEAK.<br />
  29. 29. THE WESTERN ECONOMIC MODEL IS DOOM TO US ALL<br />Fossil Fuel Based<br />Auto centric<br />Throw away<br />IF IT WON’T WORK FOR CHINA IT WON’T WORK FOR INDIA<br />India may have bigger population than China<br />Won’t work for 3 billion in developing countries reaching toward middle class<br />
  30. 30. OVERRIDING CHALLENGE FOR OUR GENERATION – BUILD AN ECONOMY BASED ON RENEWABLE RESOURCES<br />Renewable energy<br />Diversified transportation<br />Reuse and recycling of everything<br />WE HAVE THE TECHNOLOGY<br />DO WE HAVE THE WILL?<br />
  31. 31. Governments collapse when <br />Can’t provide food<br />Can’t provide security<br />Education<br />Health care<br />Lose credibility<br />Lose revenues<br />Societies fragment<br />Wars ensue<br />Nations come to fear warring states<br />Become hotbeds for terrorism and drugs<br />
  32. 32. Failing states – GREATEST THREAT TO GLOBAL SECURITY<br />Lack healthcare<br />Become sources of global disease<br />Non-state governments emerge<br />Warlords emerge, Clans<br />Estimated 20-47 failing Countries<br />[insert chart]<br />
  33. 33. State Failure usually causes environmental destruction<br />Deforestation<br />Desertification<br />Soil erosion<br />Shrinkage of cropland and water per person<br />
  34. 34. Deteriorating environmental systems and poverty reinforce each other<br />Donors avoid for security reasons<br />State failure spills over into the region dragging it down<br />Rwanda, Sudan…<br />
  35. 35. Failing states hurts ability to respond to international needs<br />Controlling spread of infectious diseases<br />Maintaining raw material flows<br />Disrupt local economic progress<br />
  36. 36. URGENCY is needed to avoid TIPPING POINTS<br />Shrinking species populations beyond recovery<br />Over-fishing<br />
  37. 37. Social tipping points<br />Single issues or simultaneous multiple threats<br />Economically advanced can handle it, but not underdeveloped<br />Advanced countries controlled AIDS<br />Not the underdeveloped countries<br />20% or more adults in some countries infected<br />Unsupportable population growth<br />Mideast and Africa<br />78 million new people per year<br />Growth is in countries least able to support them<br />
  38. 38. Even advanced countries are getting overwhelmed<br />Falling water tables<br />Expected – policy would stabilize aquifers<br />NOT ONE COUNTRY HAS YET DONE SO<br />Cutting carbon is obviously necessary<br />NOT ONE COUNTRY HAS DONE IT YET<br />WILL THIS BE OUR DEMISE AS SALT KILLED SAMARIA?<br />Decline in oil production<br />Only 2 countries are planning for it!!!<br />
  39. 39. These problems can lead to failure of Civilization<br />Analyze the effects of mounting stresses on global systems<br />Food Security is most crucial and revealing<br />
  40. 40. Farmers are failing to keep pace with population growth<br />Falling water tables<br />Converting crop land to other uses<br />Extreme climate events<br />Heat waves<br />Droughts<br />Floods<br />WORLD GRAIN PRODUCTION FALLING SHORT OF NEED IN 80% OF THE YEARS NOW<br />2005-2007 GRAIN PRICES TRIPLED<br />SURPLUS GRAIN SUPPLIES NOW PLUMMETING<br />
  41. 41. US – WORLD’S BREAD BASKET – NOW TURNING GRAIN INTO OIL<br />UP TO 30% OF RECENT CROPS GO TO FUEL<br />DRIVING WORLD GRAIN PRICES TO UNPRECEDENTED HIGHS<br />UNPRECEDENTED FOOD INSECURITY<br />STATES FAILING<br />
  42. 42. STATE FAILURE CAN BE QUICK AND UNEXPECTED<br />ON ENVIRONMENTAL FAILURE CAN DO IT<br />NOW WE HAVE MULTIPLE<br />NOW STATES SO INTERCONNECTED THAT ALL WILL RISE OF FAIL TOGETHER<br />
  43. 43. Plan B shaped what may save Civilization – NOT by Political Correctness<br />Requires attacking on multiple fronts<br />Ending poverty<br />Stabilizing population<br />Restoring earths natural systems<br />Cutting carbon 80% by 2020<br />Efficiency<br />Renewable sources<br />Scale and speed – must be wartime speed<br />Restructuring of the world economy commensurate with WWII economy restructuring<br />Cars were banned for 3 years<br />
  44. 44. Extraordinary challenge – much hope<br />We have the EXISTING TECHNOLOGY<br />EVERYTHING NEEDED HAS BEEN DONE SOMEWHERE<br />Advanced Wind Towers can equal the energy of an oil well<br />Japanese refrigerators use 12% the power of those a decade ago<br />Today’s hybrid cars – 50 mpg – 50% more efficient <br />
  45. 45. Examples of what is possible<br />Denmark 20% of energy from wind – headed to 60%<br />60m Europeans get electricity from wind<br />40m Chinese getting hot water from rooftop heaters<br />Iceland – 90% of homes geothermal heated<br />India using dairy based on crop residue – 4x milk production – world’s biggest milk producer<br />China fish farming – using advanced carp – first country with farm fish exceeding natural – 1/3 of world’s oceanic fish catch<br />
  46. 46. Examples of what is possible<br />South Korea – Reforested to 60% from near zero<br />US – in 20 years reduced soil erosion in vulnerable areas 40%<br />US farmers increased crop yields 20% in 20 years<br />Curitiba, Brazil since 1974 – Population tripled while traffic 30% reduction<br />Amsterdam – advanced urban transport – 30% by bikes<br />Paris transportation diversification headed toward 40% reduction in traffic<br />London uses taxes for traffic reduction<br />
  47. 47. New technologies available permitting new outcomes<br />Plug-in Hybrids plus Wind Farms –DRIVING ON WIND – at ‘$1 a gallon’<br />
  48. 48. THE TIME IS NOW BEFORE ECONOMIC COLLAPSE<br />
  49. 49. NEXT 5 CHAPTERS – THE ENVIRONMENTAL, DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC CHALLENGES<br />THEN 7 CHAPTERS – ROADMAP OF WHERE WE NEED TO GO AND HOW TO GET THERE<br />WORLD’S IN TROUBLE BECAUSE OF WHAT WE’VE PUT IN MOTION<br />
  50. 50. PROMISING TRENDS OF THE MID 2000’S HAVE EVAPORATED<br />
  51. 51. Ban the bulb if global could reduce the equivalent of 700 coal fired power plants<br />
  52. 52. IF WE WANT WE CAN CREATE A NEW ECONOMY<br />We could breathe clean air<br />Cities less noisy, polluted, congested, more civilized<br />Expanding forests<br />Falling carbon emission<br />
  53. 53. Chapter 2 Deteriorating Food and Oil Security<br />
  54. 54. 20th Century was the oil century<br />1900 – the world produced 150 million barrels of oil<br />28billin barrels <br />180 fold increase<br />Cheap oil enabled food production explosion along with population, urbanization, mobility<br />1900 30% in cities – today 50%<br />Grain harvest increased 400% in 20th cent<br />Mobility exploded – cars, trains, planes<br />Today – an oil based civilization<br />
  55. 55. PRODUCTION SOON FALLING<br />1981 was the peak of new discoveries<br />2006 – world pumped 38 billion barrels but discovered only 9 billion new<br />World reserves in free-fall<br />Half of world reserves used up – 1 trillion left<br />FIRST TRILLION WAS EASY OIL<br />WHAT’S LEFT IS TOUGH OIL<br />DEEP<br />OFF SHORE<br />UNFRIENDLY COUNTRIES<br />PEAK OIL IS AT HAND<br />THIS IS A TOTALLY DIFFERENT WORLD<br />ZERO SUM GAME OVER OIL<br />
  56. 56. Food and oil are hugely linked<br />1950-72 bushel of wheat could be traded for barrel of oil - $2<br />In late 2007 took 8 bushels of wheat to buy 1 barrel of oil<br />Grain now pegged to Oil – over $60 / barrel is highly productive<br />2006 16% of crop went to fuel<br />2008 could be 30%<br />WORLD PRICE OF GRAIN MOVING TO OIL PRICE EQUIVALENT<br />Food will shift into fuel economy<br />
  57. 57. PEAK OIL IS UPON US<br />New production follows new discovery by about 40 years<br />[insert data chart]<br />1970 US produced 9.6 million bpd<br />2006 5.1 million bpd<br />47% decline<br />Venezuela peaked<br />UK Peaked 2000<br />
  58. 58. Pre-peakers – Russia – WORLD’S LARGEST PRODUCER<br />Eclipsed Saudi Arabia 2006<br />Canada – deadly tar sands<br />Kazakhstan<br />Algeria<br />Angola<br />Brazil<br />Nigeria<br />UAE<br />Libya<br />
  59. 59. Approaching production decline<br />Mexico<br />US 2nd largest suppliers<br />2004 3.4 million barrels per day<br />Key field in steep decline<br />Could be importer by 21015<br />China<br />Saudi Arabia<br />Largest field is 50 years old<br />2007 production of 8.9 million barrels down 6% <br />Can pre-peak countries make up the difference for the rest?<br />
  60. 60. Major oil companies<br />Have not been any dramatic increases in exploration and development<br />Seems that 95% of world’s oil already discovered<br />Whole world has been seismically searched<br />Extremely unlikely new fields to be found<br />World demand increases annually 2m bpd<br />Old fields decline annually 4m bpd<br />Needs a whole new Saudi Arabia every few years – NOT SUSTAINABLE<br />IF THE OIL CO’S HAD GOOD PROSPECTS THEY’D BE DEVELOPING THEM<br />WORLD PRODUCTION OF 85M BPD DECLINED IN 2007<br />Of the top 20 fields ever discovered <br />18 discovered between 1917 and 1970’s<br />NONE HAS COME SINCE THE 1970’S<br />
  61. 61. THE AGE OF DIRTY, DANGEROUS, COSTLY OIL?<br />We can expect to drop to 67 million bpd by 2020 – a 21% drop<br />Oil supply per person drop of 32% in just 14 years<br />The 5% of conventional oil left<br />Arctic as it melts<br />Alaska<br />Deep deep deep<br />TAR SANDS AND OIL SHALE and carrageen <br />Alberta – 1.1 trillion barrels<br />Venezuela – .4 trillion barrels<br />Rockies oil shale – carrageen<br />SEVERAL BARRELS OF WATER FOR EACH BARREL OF OIL<br />ALBERTA TAR SANDS – 7% US OIL NEEDS – 1.4 MILLION BPD<br />
  62. 62. TAR SANDS ARE OUR DEATH<br />Highly carbon intensive production – extensive use of natural gas<br />2 tons of sand for 1 barrel of oil<br />Net energy yield is low – 2 out of each three barrels for just production – 3X DIRTIER<br />MASSIVE LAND DESTRUCTION<br />
  63. 63. WHEN PRODUCING COMPANIES AND COUNTRIES FACE THE FACT OF REDUCTION – <br />THEY’LL RATION<br />PRICES WILL DRIVE UP<br />
  64. 64. EFFECT ON FOOD SUPPLY / COST OF FOOD<br />
  65. 65. AGRICULTURE MASSIVELY OIL DEPENDENT<br />Tractors<br />Irrigation pumps<br />Fertilizer<br />Phosphate and potash mining<br />Developing countries moving from draft animals to tractors<br />Fertilizer uses 20% of farm energy use<br />Urbanization necessitates fertilizer replace human waste<br />World food shipments send nutrients elsewhere<br />nutrients: nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium<br />
  66. 66. Irrigation – manor energy user – INCREASING as water tables drop<br />US – 19% of farm energy use<br />India – water tables falling. 50% of ALL electricity for pumping water from wells!!!!!<br />No-till farming is helping<br />
  67. 67. Agriculture accounts for 1/5th of energy in us food system<br />Transport<br />processing, <br />packaging, <br />marketing, and <br />kitchen preparation<br />
  68. 68. US food economy uses as much energy as entire UK economy<br />12% for transportation from farm to consumer<br />Air transport of food – fruit, etc – has exploded<br />16% canning, freezing, drying<br />

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