Doug Henton Solano Index Presentation


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Doug Henton Solano Index Presentation

  1. 1. WHAT IS AN INDEX? WHAT IS AN INDEX? The Solano County Index tells a story through  The Solano County Index tells a story through indicators that measure the strength of our  economy and the health of our community  economy and the health of our community – highlighting challenges and providing an  analytical foundation for leadership and  analytical foundation for leadership and decision making.
  2. 2. WHAT IS AN INDICATOR? WHAT IS AN INDICATOR? Indicators are measurements that tell us how we are doing g Good indicators do the following: They are bellwethers that reflect fundamentals of long‐ term regional health; They reflect the interests and concerns of the community; They are statistically measurable on a frequent basis; and They measure outcomes, rather than inputs.
  3. 3. WHAT IS AN INDUSTRY CLUSTER? WHAT IS AN INDUSTRY CLUSTER? An industry cluster is a geographic  An industry cluster is a geographic concentration of independent,  internationally competitive firms in related  industries, and includes a significant number  of companies that sell their products and  services outside the region. i id h i Healthy, outward‐oriented industry clusters  are a critical prerequisite for a strong  ii l ii f economy.
  4. 4. OUR CHANGING ECONOMY OUR CHANGING ECONOMY Our Economy has  Our Economy has Produced Growing  Revenues, Incomes, Jobs,  , , , and Firms Our incomes have grown. Our incomes have grown. Our job growth has been  strong and the number of  strong and the number of individual business  owners has proliferated. p
  5. 5. OUR CHANGING ECONOMY OUR CHANGING ECONOMY Our Economy has  y Diversified and Our  Competitive Advantages  have Grown have Grown Leading clusters  represent a growing  share of the Solano  county economy. These clusters grew  These clusters grew faster in Solano than in  other Bay Area counties.
  6. 6. OUR CHANGING COMMUNITY OUR CHANGING COMMUNITY Who We Are Who We Are Our population is  becoming much more  becoming much more diverse.  Our population is  O li i becoming older—and  younger. 
  7. 7. OUR CHANGING COMMUNITY OUR CHANGING COMMUNITY Who We Are oee Our population growth  has slowed.  We are experiencing  rising outmigration, but  continued in‐migration  as well. Many college educated  M ll d td people are arriving, but  more are leaving. more are leaving
  8. 8. HOW WE ARE DOING HOW WE ARE DOING Incomes are rising, but many households are  co es a e s g, but a y ouse o ds a e being squeezed by housing costs that are rising  faster.  More of our youth are in better shape, but fewer  are prepared for higher education. Crime rates have declined over the long term,  but spiked up recently.  Higher home prices have increased property tax  Hi h h i h i d tt revenues, but prices are now dropping  significantly.  significantly
  9. 9. THE CONNECTION BETWEEN OUR  ECONOMY AND COMMUNITY Connecting Residents  g to Jobs We have fewer higher‐ skilled jobs than highly‐ skilled jobs than highly educated residents. Many residents must  Many residents must commute outside the  county to work. We have been  Wh b producing more  housing than jobs. g j
  11. 11. CHANGE IN PER CAPITA INCOME CHANGE IN PER CAPITA INCOME Change in per Capita Income Change in per Capita Income What does this  What does this Solano County, Rest of San Francisco Bay Area, California, and United States mean? Since 2000 Solano County’s per capita income has been per capita income has been increasing at a faster rate than in the rest of the Bay Area, California and the nation. This means that the County has experienced a rise in relative prosperity. Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Dt S B fE iA li Analysis: CEI Rest of San Francisco Bay Area includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Benito, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, and Sonoma Counties * Preliminary per Capita Income estimates for 2007.
  12. 12. ANNUAL NUMBER OF JOBS ANNUAL NUMBER OF JOBS Annual Number of Jobs Annual Number of Jobs What does this  Solano County 1990‐2007 mean? Solano County s recent job Solano County’s recent job growth and prior rebounds from earlier economic shocks, such as the closure of Mare Island, indicates f ldd that the County has demonstrated resiliency. Data Source: California Employment Development Department Analysis: CEI
  13. 13. CHANGE IN EMPLOYED RESIDENTS CHANGE IN EMPLOYED RESIDENTS Change in Employed Residents and Total Industry Jobs + 6% 6% Trends relative to 2000 • Solano County Trends relative to 2000 • Solano County Between August  2000 and August 2008, the  number of jobs and  employed ld residents in the  County grew over 6%. grew over 6% Data Source: California Employment Development Department Analysis: CEI
  14. 14. FIRM SIZE BY NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES FIRM SIZE BY NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES Firm Size by Number of Employees y py What does this  What does this Percent of Total Solano County Firms by Employment Size mean? Solano County is  dominated by micro‐enterprises that are critical to the vitality of the economy. While large firms are Whil l fi still important, economic development efforts should also focus on the needs of these  microenterprises. Data Source: California Employment Development Department Analysis: CEI Note: Based on employers who are subject to the Unemployment Insurance provision of the Unemployment Insurance Code.
  15. 15. WHAT DOES IT MEAN? WHAT DOES IT MEAN? Solano County is dominated by micro Solano County is dominated by micro‐ enterprises that are critical to the vitality of  the economy.  the economy While large firms are still important,  economic development efforts should also  economic development efforts should also focus on the needs of these microenterprises
  16. 16. PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN INDUSTRY  EMPLOYMENT Percent Change in Industry Employment and Individual Business Owners (with no employees) Solano County + 24% Between 2000  and 2006, Individual  Individual Business Owners with  no employees l increased by  24%. Data Source: California Employment Development Department and U.S. Census Bureau, Nonemployer Statistics Analysis: CEI
  17. 17. INDUSTRY SECTOR EMPLOYMENT INDUSTRY SECTOR EMPLOYMENT What does this  What does this Comparison of Industry Sector Employment C i fI d t S t E l t Solano County mean? Solano County’s economic diversity has created a diversity has created a greater balance of jobs, which provides increased stability in times of economic turbulence. Data Source: California Employment Development Department Analysis: CEI
  18. 18. INDUSTRY CLUSTERS INDUSTRY CLUSTERS Advanced Food and Beverage Manufacturing  Advanced Food and Beverage Manufacturing Construction Health and Social Services l h dS i lS i Life Sciences  Professional and Environmental Services  Specialized Manufacturing Specialized Manufacturing Trade and Logistics
  19. 19. SOLANO CLUSTERS OF OPPORTUNITY 2000‐2006 What does this  hd hi mean? Solano County’s major  industry clusters are more specialized and  growing faster than the same industries in the rest  same industries in the rest of the Bay Area. These clusters pay higher  wages and generate demand for support  d df t services. Size of bubble represents employment size in 2006.
  22. 22. AGE DISTRIBUTION AGE DISTRIBUTION Age Distribution Number of People and Percent of Growth + 16% Solano County From 2000 to  2006 the 2006 th population  between 18 and 34 years of  age increased by  increased by 13,000 people (16%). Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census 2000 and American Community Survey 2006 Analysis: CEI
  23. 23. POPULATION BY RACE & ETHNICITY POPULATION BY RACE & ETHNICITY Population by Race and Ethnicity What does this  Number of People and Percent of Growth Number of People and Percent of Growth mean? Solano County Solano County’s changing demographics have  implications i li ti on the demand for education, health, and public services as the population becomes older, l ti b ld younger, and more diverse. Slower population growth changes the underlying drivers of some d l i di f elements of the economy, including housing and construction, which historically been driven by hi t i ll b di b population growth.
  24. 24. POPULATION GROWTH POPULATION GROWTH Population Growth Percent Change over Prior Year Percent Change over Prior Year Solano County, Rest of San Francisco Bay Area, and California +26,800 Solano County’s y population grew by 26,800 people between 2000 and 2007. Although the county has experienced a steady slowing in population growth, the county grew th th t 0.5% in 2007. Data Source: California Department of Finance Analysis: CEI * Provisional population estimates for 2007 ** San Francisco Bay Area includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, and Sonoma Counties.
  25. 25. DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN MIGRATION DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN MIGRATION Net foreign g Domestic and Foreign Migration g g Solano County Immigration Net foreign immigration is the difference of all legal foreign immigrants entering fii i t ti and leaving the County. Data Source: California Department of Finance Analysis: CEI *Provisional population estimates for 2007
  26. 26. EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT Educational Attainment of People Migrating Educational Attainment of People Migrating +1,100 in and out of Solano County 2006 In 2006, more than 1,100 pp people with bachelor’s degrees moved into the County than left.
  27. 27. HOUSING AFFORDABILITY HOUSING AFFORDABILITY Housing Affordability Percent of Homeowner Households with Housing Costs  Percent of Homeowner Households with Housing Costs What does this  hd hi Greater Than 35% of Income mean? Solano County, San Francisco Bay Area, and California With rising housing costs and foreclosure rates, Solano County has not escaped the national and statewide housing crisis. statewide housing crisis.
  28. 28. RESIDENTIAL FORECLOSURE ACTIVITY RESIDENTIAL FORECLOSURE ACTIVITY Residential Foreclosure Activity Percent Change in Annual Foreclosure Sales Solano County and California 1,059 1 059 There were 1,059 foreclosure sales in the first quarter of 2008. Data Source: DataQuick Analysis: CEI
  29. 29. CHILDHOOD OBESITY CHILDHOOD OBESITY Percentage of Children Determined to NOT g What does this  hd hi be Overweight or Obese by Body Mass Index mean? Solano County Solano County has made some progress in reducing childhood obesity which can be a cause of a number of significant and number of significant and costly health problems in later years. Data Source: UCLA Center for Health Policy Research, California Health Interview Survey Analysis: CEI Note: For adolescents,“Overweight or obese” includes the respondents who have a BMI in the 95th percentile  with respect to their age and gender. Child population‐under the age of 12 including infants.
  30. 30. HIGH SCHOOL DROPOUT RATE HIGH SCHOOL DROPOUT RATE High School Dropout Rate High School Dropout Rate Solano County 2007 What does this  mean? ? Solano County’s high school dropout rates are rising at a time when rising at a time when the economy demands higher skills from the local workforce. Data Source:California Department of Education, Solano County School Districts Analysis: CEI Note:This is the first year that dropout counts are derived from student‐level data.
  31. 31. FELONY OFFENSES FELONY OFFENSES Felony Offenses Rate per 100,000 people y p , pp Solano County and California What does this  mean? After years of progress, crime rates have recently spiked in Solano County. Related to rising dropout Related to rising dropo t rates, gang violence and other socioeconomic issues, juvenile felonies are rising dramatically. Data Source: California Department of Justice Analysis: CEI Note: Felony offenses include violent, property, and drug offenses
  32. 32. FELONY OFFENSES FELONY OFFENSES Felony Offenses Percent Change over Prior Year y g Solano County and California +70% 70% Juvenile violent offenses increased by 70%  between 2005 and 2006. Data Source: California Department Justice Analysis: CEI Note: Felony offenses include violent, property, and drug offenses
  33. 33. CITY REVENUES CITY REVENUES Growth in City Revenues since 1998 What does this  Solano County mean? While city revenues from property taxes have risen in the County, revenues from sales and other taxes are more susceptible taxes are more susceptible to business cycles. Data Source: California State Controller’s Office Analysis: CEI
  35. 35. EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT Comparison of Educational Attainment of p Population to Required Level of Education for Occupations What does this  Solano County 2006 mean? Solano County has the Sl C t h th opportunity to create higher‐skilled jobs for its residents, especially  within its cluster industries. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 American Community Survey;O*NET; Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics Analysis: CEI y * Some College includes: Less than 1 year of college; Some college, 1 or more years, no degree; Associates degree; Professional certification
  36. 36. EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT Educational Attainment Some College  Solano County, California, and United States, 2006 Education In 2006, residents with I 2006 id t ith some college or more made up a larger  percentage of the population in Solano County (59%) than in California (57%) or the U.S. (54%). U S (54%) Source: U.S. Census Bureau,American Community Survey Analysis: CEI * Some College includes: Less than 1 year of college; Some college, 1 or more years, no degree; Associates degree; g y g; g, y , g; g; Professional certification
  37. 37. OCCUPATIONAL DISTRIBUTION OCCUPATIONAL DISTRIBUTION Comparison of Occupational Distribution by Wage Level What does this  Solano County, San Francisco and East Bay Area, and California  2007 mean? Solano County needs Sl C t d to expand its middle and high‐wage job  opportunities for its residents by growing its cluster industries and continuing to diversify its economy. to diversify its economy Data Source: Occupational Employment Statistics Analysis: CEI San Francisco and East Bay Area includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, San Francisco, and San Mateo Counties. y , , , ,
  38. 38. RATIO OF JOBS TO HOUSING UNITS RATIO OF JOBS TO HOUSING UNITS What does this  What does this Ratio of Jobs to Housing Units R ti f J b t H i U it Solano County and the Rest of the Bay Area mean? Creating higher paying jobs in Solano County will in Solano County will reduce the need for  residents to commute to jobs outside the County and thereby reduce commuting stress, allow more family time, and slow the growth time and slow the growth in carbon emissions. Data Source:California Employment Development Department; U.S. Census Bureau,American Community Survey Analysis: CEI * Rest of Bay Area includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, and Sonoma Counties.
  39. 39. COMMUTE FLOWS COMMUTE FLOWS Solano County Residents' Commute Flows Share of Population that Works Outside of the County • 2006 75,000 Almost 75,000 Solano County residents County residents commuted outside of the county for work. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 American Community Survey S US C B 2006 A i C it S Analysis: CEI Note : 74,986 Solano County Residents commute outside of the county for work.
  40. 40. COMMUTE FLOWS COMMUTE FLOWS Solano County Residents Commute Flows Solano County Residents' Commute Flows Educational Attainment of Population that  Works Outside of the County • 2006 Educated Commuters Twenty‐seven percent of residents who commuted out of Solano County out of Solano County for work had at least a bachelor’s degree. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 American Community Survey S US C B 2006 A i C it S Analysis: CEI * Some College includes: Less than 1 year of college; Some college, 1 or more years, no degree; Associates degree; Professional certification
  41. 41. COMMUTE FLOWS COMMUTE FLOWS Solano County Employees Commute Flows Solano County Employees' Commute Flows Share of Workers that Live Outside of the County • 2006 30,000 In 2006, over 30,000 people commuted to people commuted to Solano County for work. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 American Community Survey Analysis: CEI Note: 30,676 Solano County Employees commute into the county for work.
  42. 42. COMMUTE FLOWS COMMUTE FLOWS Solano County Employees' Commute Flows y py Educational Attainment of Workers that Live Outside of the County • 2006 1,400 1 400 More than 1,400  people with a graduate or ith dt professional degree commuted to Solano County for work. County for work Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 American Community Survey Analysis: CEI * Some College includes: Less than 1 year of college; Some college, 1 or more years, no degree; Associates degree; Professional certification