TEKES signaalisession alustus

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TEKES signaalisession alustus

  1. 1. Copyright © Tekes Signaalisessio 5.11.2010 Kari Ryynänen 11-2010DM #724161
  2. 2. Copyright © Tekes Introduction  A great number of megatrends and changes are currently shaping the global business landscape and also the global software ecosystem.  Timescale and scope of this document and session is changes in the global software ecosystem in the following decade, that is until year 2020.  Purpose of this document and session is to provide information as a base for discussions for actions to be taken. We don’t try to present any potential business scenarios, visions, exact technological roadmaps, key technologies nor precise changes.  If reacted correctly, both megatrends and changes as well early adoption of emerging technologies provide us huge business potential and competitive advantage in the following years.  Anyhow, all stakeholders must be prepared for radical changes in their thinking and ways of working. 11-2010DM # 724161
  3. 3. Copyright © Tekes Part 1: Some identified changes in the global software ecosystem 11-2010DM # 724161
  4. 4. Copyright © Tekes Määritelmiä  Megatrendi: Megatrendillä (puhutaan myös mm. kehityksen suurista aalloista tai linjoista) tarkoitetaan yleensä sellaista ilmiötä tai ilmiökokonaisuutta, jolla voidaan nähdä olevan yleinen jo toteutuneen kehityksen perusteella tunnistettavissa oleva suunta ja jonka uskotaan jatkuvan samansuuntaisesti myös tulevaisuudessa  Change driver: Muutosvoima, merkittävä (yksittäinen) muutos.  Signal: (Heikko) signaali on merkki asioista, tapahtumista jne., joista voi tulevaisuudessa tulla jotain merkittävää ja suurta eli trendejä tai peräti megatrendejä tai muutosvoimia. 11-2010DM # 724161
  5. 5. Copyright © Tekes Some megatrends and change drivers 11-2010DM # 724161 Open Everything Cloud Computing Evolving Software Platforms Global Software Development and Global Sourcing Rise of BRIC and Other Developing Countries Global War of Talents New Needs Requires New Solutions Understanding Customers and Ecosystems Sustainable Development and Green Software Evolution of Business Models and Revenue Socializing and Collaborating Software Development Mobility and Connectivity in Digital Society Megatrend -follow Everything is Programmable Change driver -understand Change driver -react Emerging technologies ? ? ? ? ? Ageing Consumerizati on of IT
  6. 6. Copyright © Tekes Megatrends – enabling and challenging 11-2010DM # 724161 Rise of BRIC and Other Developing Countries Global War of Talents Sustainable Development and Green Software Both in India and China technology, services and outsourcing, but also local markets, are growing rapidly due to huge GDP growth. Russia and Brazil and many developing countries are on their own ways towards the same target with already existing markets for early adaptors or even mainstream customers. Talented young scientists, designers, and entrepreneurs can be attracted anywhere by the right incentives, professional opportunities, and creative ambiance. How we can attractive, if we are compared with Silicon Valley, Singapore, Bangalore and other innovation hotspots? Sustainable development and demand for green ICT includes demand for green software. How your software can be green? Consumerizati on of IT The trend in many technologies is that new technology first emerges in the consumer markets and then spreads into business; good examples are instant messaging, video games, different new gadgets and social environments. In the big picture this should also be seen as shift of IT and software innovations from enterprises and other companies to homes and individuals. Ageing The world's population is ageing. It is happening because we live longer, and because there will be relatively more elderly than youths the next decades. Finland and Japan will phase this first, other industrialized countries follow us after 5 years. Is there need for solutions, talents or competences?
  7. 7. Copyright © Tekes Change drivers – react immediately 11-2010DM # 724161 Open Everything Cloud Computing Evolving Software Platforms Global Software Development and Global Sourcing Evolution of Business Models and Revenue Open source and other open innovations and settings like open leadership changes the way how software creates income for a company. How a company can benefit from open innovation models without giving away the full control of their innovation? Share and utilize. Platforms, architectures, standard interfaces and application stores can be used as cost and time effective base when implementing and delivering software solutions to business processes and off-the-shelf products to companies and consumers. Cloud computing (virtual infrastructures, everything as service, XaaS) changes the way software is delivered and used, but also transforms revenue of the software work from traditional licensing. Collaborative, shared software development process within a value net and simultaneous outsourcing and insourcing of competencies and technologies changes the way you create your software. Instead of traditional software business model (licence fee+local client-server installation) there are many possible choices for delivery and service models, as well for revenue models. Models based on advertising and subscription are reality also within software industry, as well is viral business.
  8. 8. Copyright © Tekes What about these – understand them 11-2010DM # 724161 Socializing and Collaborating Software Development Everything is Programmable Understanding Customers and Ecosystems Evolution from vendor-centric collaboration towards user and community centric collaboration will give pressure to new software development paradigmas like agile methods. Software development is also both individualisating and socializing the same time, how does it fit into your processes and competences? Ubiquitous and embedded systems are increasingly used everywhere. More and more services, products, solutions and processes are dependent of software. Understanding the big issues (society, globalization, markets, ecosystems) and end users (consumers, organizations and their employees) instead of technology might give you a clear business advantage. How do you know your customers culture or religion, and society they are living in? What about customer experience? Mobility and Connectivity in Digital Society Investments and innovations to reduce digital divide between industrialized and developing countries, but also within countries, companies and even between individuals are growing rapidly. And fast growing adoption of mobile devices and need for content will have a significant impact on the software industry as need of new solutions. New Needs Requires New Solutions Good business innovations are rarely technological innovations. They are often business or value model or process innovations with hi-tech backbone (software, communication, media content), and they are often planned to mass markets. SME’s can challenge conventional ways of doing business.
  9. 9. Copyright © Tekes Some emerging technologies – your bet? 11-2010DM # 724161 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
  10. 10. Copyright © Tekes Tasks  Ei yksittäisen signaalin tai teknologian näkökulmaa (tällä kertaa)!  Keskustelkaa paikkakunnittain seuraavista aiheista: • Ovatko esitetyt muutokset mielestänne relevantteja? • Oletteko tunnistaneet muita merkittäviä muutoksia? • Ovatko esitetyt muutokset mielestänne kestäviä: onko merkkejä, että näistä muutoksista tulee ns vallitsevia tekijöitä liiketoimintaympäristössänne?  Valitkaa esitetyistä muutoksista muutama liiketoimintanne kannalta merkityksellisin • Kuinka merkityksellisimmät muutokset vaikuttavat liiketoimintaanne? 11-2010DM # 724161
  11. 11. Copyright © Tekes Part 2: Scenarios 11-2010DM # 724161
  12. 12. Copyright © Tekes Määritelmä  Scenario: Skenaario on tulevaisuudenkuva tai toisen määritelmän mukaan tulevaisuuden käsikirjoitus. Skenaariot ovat usein moniselitteisiä ja epätäsmällisiä, mutta myös joustavia, kuvailevia ja laaja-alaisia tulevaisuudenkuvia vaihtoehtoisista tulevaisuuksista. Tulevaisuus ei kuitenkaan useimmiten ole deterministisesti toteutuva todellisuutena vaan usean erilaisen vaihtoehtoisen tulevaisuudentilan kombinaatio. 11-2010DM # 724161
  13. 13. Copyright © Tekes Tasks  Luokaa keskustelemalla paikkakunnalla Suomen ohjelmistoalalle kaksi skenaariota, jossa olette reagoineet merkittävimmiksi valitsemiinne muutosvoimiin. • Antakaa skenaariolle kuvaava nimi. • Kyseenalaistakaa vakiintuneet perususkomuksenne! 11-2010DM # 724161
  14. 14. Copyright © Tekes Part 3: Summary 11-2010DM # 724161
  15. 15. Copyright © Tekes Mitä sitten?  Tavoitteena ei ollut absoluuttisen totuuden saaminen alamme tulevaisuudesta, vaan kerätä näkemyksiä eteenpäin jalostettaviksi.  Eli haluamme avata uusia päätöksenteon suuntia ja opastaa (itseämme) havaitsemaan sellaisiakin mahdollisuuksia, jotka ovat jääneet meiltä huomaamatta.  2010 • Software 20/20 seminaari + LinkedIn • TBD: Finpron ja Tekesin kokoamien signaalien analysointi • Tekesin oma strategiatyö  2011 • TBD: skenaarioiden purkaminen toimenpidekokonaisuuksiksi • TBD: toimenpiteet merkityksellisimpiin muutoksiin reagoimiseksi • TBD: ennakointityö ja heikkojen signaalien kokoaminen ja jalostaminen 11-2010DM # 724161
  16. 16. Copyright © Tekes Contact information  Verso-Vertical Software Solutions 2006-2010: www.tekes.fi/verso  Tekes-Finnish Funding Agency for Technology and Innovation : www.tekes.fi Mr Kari Ryynänen Program manager, Senior Advisor kari.ryynanen@tekes.fi +358-40-580 5167 11-2010DM # 724161

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