A Technical Guide to Developinga Social Impact Bond:Vulnerable Children and Young PeopleMarch 2011
Encourage a broad diversity of service providersIntroduction                                                P	            ...
Box 1 – Vulnerable Children and Young People: SIB Working Hypothesis    P	   There are significant numbers of adolescents ...
Figure 1 – Feasibility Assessment Process                                           Key Questions                         ...
Defining the social issue                                  Social Impact Bonds raise                    Illustration of ta...
Development of the social intervention strategy                                           We are looking to develop       ...
Building the business case                                   Developing the business case                 a metric needs t...
Figure 2: Illustrative Outcome Valuation – average placement cost of a young person     Type of placement        Probabili...
Developing the financial model                                   The financial model aims to       This is essential to de...
Appendix: Key SIB Questions 1. Social issue What is the social issue you are trying to solve?         e.g. Improve outcome...
4. Interventions What are the proposed interventions to be funded by a          e.g. Adolescents or family support service...
About the authorsLisa Barclay                                                Diane MakLisa is a Director at Social Finance...
Social Finance is building a pioneeringorganisation to develop financial products thatmarry the ambitions of investors and...
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SIB Technical Guide - Vulnerable Children

  1. 1. A Technical Guide to Developinga Social Impact Bond:Vulnerable Children and Young PeopleMarch 2011
  2. 2. Encourage a broad diversity of service providersIntroduction P and collaboration between providers;This guide aims to set out the steps that are required P Create more market discipline and offerto assess the feasibility of a Social Impact Bond (SIB) predictable revenue streams for service providersidea. It starts with the identification of a social to enable those that are effective to thrive; andissue where a SIB might be applicable and examineseach factor that must be considered if a SIB is to P Align public sector funding more directly withbe effective. The guide is written to assist those improved social outcomes.developing SIBs to reach a stage where it would be The first Social Impact Bond was launched inpossible to establish a contract between a public September 2010 at Peterborough Prison. It fundssector commissioner and investors. rehabilitation services for short-sentence prisonersThis guide is one in a series of technical guides. Each released from the prison, with the express aim ofdocument focuses on how a SIB can be developed reducing re-offending. Social Finance is currentlyto address the root causes of a specific social issue. exploring a number of potential applications of SIBs in areas such as health, drug rehabilitation and Children’s Services. What is a Social Impact Bond? P A Social Impact Bond (“SIB”) is a contract with SIBs and Children’s Services the public sector in which it commits to pay Children’s Services departments across the country for improved social outcomes. address a range of needs when working to improve the lives of children in their areas. These range from P On the basis of this contract, investment is raised from socially-motivated investors. providing Children’s Centre services for the early years to accommodating vulnerable children where P This investment is used to pay for a range of there are fears for their safety. Many of the activities interventions to improve social outcomes. carried out by Children’s Services are statutory – required by law to be provided by the State. Others P If social outcomes improve, investors will receive payments from government. are more of a preventative nature – trying to address underlying needs before they escalate into crisis. P These payments repay the initial investment plus a financial return. Social Finance is developing a working hypothesis of how a SIB might fund more preventative services P The financial return is dependent on the related to the activities of Children’s Services, with degree to which outcomes improve. the objective of improving the wellbeing and prospects of vulnerable children and young people. Over time, if such interventions succeed, they shouldSIB Objectives enable a shift in expenditure away from acute spending towards expenditure on early interventionSocial Finance has created SIBs - an outcomes- services – reinforcing cycles of positive spending andbased funding mechanism – to provide new outcomes. There will undoubtedly be a range ofinvestment to improve social outcomes. SIBs fund areas in which a SIB could help to improve socialpreventative and early intervention programmes outcomes of children and young people. In this guidewhich tackle the underlying causes of specific we use our SIB working hypothesis as one examplesocial problems. Incentives are aligned across to demonstrate how to assess the feasibility of suchpublic sector commissioners, external investors and projects.service providers, all of whom are acting to achieve In Box 1, we set out our working hypothesis for aimproved social outcomes as defined in a contract. SIB focused on reducing or preventing time spentThe main objectives of the SIB are to: in care by adolescents experiencing behavioural problems or family breakdown. The rest of thisP Increase the pool of capital available to fund guide illustrates a SIB feasibility assessment based early interventions; on this hypothesis. Technical Guide: Vulnerable Children and Young People2
  3. 3. Box 1 – Vulnerable Children and Young People: SIB Working Hypothesis P There are significant numbers of adolescents in and at the edge of the care system due to behavioural problems or family breakdown. Typically, over 30% of looked after children are in the adolescent age range. P For many adolescents entering care there is a strong probability of staying in care long-term.1 P Outcomes for looked after children are significantly worse than for children in the population as a whole. One example of this is educational attainment: 14% of looked after children achieve 5 GCSEs A*-C, compared to 65.3% for children overall. P The financial costs to Local Authorities of young people entering and remaining in the care system are high. The estimated expenditure on looked after children is more than £2 billion per year in England.2 P The direct cost of placement for a looked after child is, on average, £40,000 a year. Placement costs range from £25k to £250k per child per year, ranging from foster care to specialist residential care. P There are interventions which address the needs of vulnerable young people and those of their parents, stabilising the situation and enabling the family to remain together. Such interventions range from those of a practical nature to the more therapeutic. P A Social Impact Bond could raise investment to fund interventions intended to reduce preventable family breakdowns and the number of young people entering care. A SIB could also fund support for those who have recently become looked after, aiming to swiftly reunite them with their families, where measures are in place to address the underlying needs of the young person and their family. P A lead outcome indicator may be one linked to reducing or preventing time spent in care which in turn can be linked to “cashable savings” and improved social outcomes. This would need to be balanced by a basket of indicators to reflect the well-being of the child.Beginning the processSocial Impact Bonds will not apply in all Figure 1 summarizes the key components ofcircumstances. In many areas, traditional funding the feasibility assessment process based on thestreams will remain the most appropriate. To hypothesis outlined above.determine whether a SIB could apply to tackling aspecific social problem, a number of factors must beconsidered. We set out below the various stages ofthe feasibility assessment process and a series of keyquestions to be addressed.1 Sinclair, I. et al. (2007) The Pursuit of Permanence: A Study of the English Child Care System. The research shows that the chance of leaving care is greatest in the first 50 days of the child being in care. After that, the rate of leaving decreases rapidly.2 The NHS Information Centre (2008) Personal Social Services Expenditure and Unit Costs England.Technical Guide: Vulnerable Children and Young People 3
  4. 4. Figure 1 – Feasibility Assessment Process Key Questions Activities P What is the social issue you are P Assess stakeholder engagement trying to solve? P Assess the feasibility of De ne the social issue P Which population should this measurement with each target target? population P What age range? P What geographical area? Key Question: Is there an engaged commissioner interested in tackling the social issue? P What are the needs of the target P Analyse research reports population? P Consult with public and voluntary P What is the intervention point? sector organisations that work with P What are the gaps in service young people in the local area provision? P Focus group with young people P What services will meet the Develop social P Develop hypothesis on the most needs of the target population to intervention strategy improve the outcome? appropriate intervention strategy Key Question: Are there compelling intervention programmes to solve the social issue? Operating model and budget P Mapping landscape of potential P What are the programmes that providers could be funded as part of a SIB? P Reviewing quantitative evaluations P Do these programmes have a track of programmes that meet young record of improving outcomes? people’s needs P What do these programmes cost to P Reviewing budgets of service deliver? providers to understand cost of P How do programmes operate service delivery Develop Develop alongside each other? P Working with Local Authority operating outcomes Develop metrics and control model Value and independent researchers to metrics P Which metric should be used to outcome evaluate the range of alternatives and evaluate the outcome? control P What size of population is needed P Ensure that the proposed metric is for measurement to be statistically operationally feasible significant? P Ensure that the proposed metric P How do we structure a baseline/ will meet investors’ needs control against which to measure P Working with the Local Authority’s the impact? analytical team to estimate the Value of outcome cost saving from an improved Estimate P Which departments generate outcome budget for cost savings from an improved service outcome? P What is the value of the cost saving? Key Question: Can a robust outcome metric be developed? P Can the SIB financial model work? P Build a financial model and run a range of scenarios P What proportion of cost savings will need to be shared with investors? Develop nancial model Key Question: Does the financial model generate savings to the Local Authority and a return to investors in an acceptable time frame? Basic SIB structure developed Technical Guide: Vulnerable Children and Young People4
  5. 5. Defining the social issue Social Impact Bonds raise Illustration of target population and referral point: investment to alleviate adolescents aged 10–15 years old, with behavioural De ne the social issue social neproblems. The SIB De the social issue De problems, who are referred social issue ne the social issue De ne the to the Children’s funds interventions which Resource Panel of a Local Authority. Examples of address the needs of a eligibility criteria of such adolescents might include: target group when there is siblings already looked after, family subject to other Develop social either Develop social no existing provision services, prior history of being looked after, at risk Develop social Develop social intervention strategy intervention strategy intervention strategy intervention strategy or the existing provision is or record of youth offending. inadequate. If the definition is not sufficiently focused the Develop Illustration of social issue: Develop interventions may be too diffuse to have a significant Develop Develop operating model Develop adolescents between the operating model Develop impact on the target outcome. If the definition is operating model Develop operating model Develop outcomes outcomes outcomes outcomes metrics Value ages 10-15 make up the metrics Value outcome too metrics narrow, the target population may be too small Value metrics Value and outcome and and outcome and outcome Estimatebudget for control largest control Estimate age group entering budget for Estimate demonstrate a statistically significant effect. to control budget for Estimate budget for control service theservice system. This group care service service is more likely than other A Social Impact Bond requires an engaged age groups to remain in commissioner who is open to outcomes-based Develop Develop Develop Develop nancial model care and not return home.3 nancial model contracting where paymentsnancial model nancial model are made if agreed Their needs are often social outcomes are achieved. It is important to Basic Basic complex structurecould involve and work in conjunction with an engaged commissioner, Basic Basic SIB structure SIB SIB structure SIB structure developed significant breakdown in developed through access to data and discussion, in order to developed developed family relationships. Those develop outcome metrics and target populationwho stay in care long term often experience poorer definitions.outcomes in health and education. Social Finance is currently working with threeOn the basis of the stated social issue, it is necessary Local Authorities – Essex County Council, Liverpoolto clearly define the target population. It is this City Council and Manchester City Council. Wegroup for whom interventions will be funded and have embarked on 6 month feasibility studies tooutcomes improved. There must be clear criteria investigate the potential for a SIB to fund servicesagainst which the target population can be targeted at vulnerable children, young people andidentified and a process through which referrals can their families.be made into the SIB-funded interventions. Key Question: Is there an engaged commissioner committed to tackling the social issue for a defined target group?3 Sinclair, I. et al. (2007) The Pursuit of Permanence: A Study of the English Child Care System.Technical Guide: Vulnerable Children and Young People 5
  6. 6. Development of the social intervention strategy We are looking to develop To determine the feasibility of the intervention SIBs that tackle the programme for SIB funding it is necessary to De ne the social issue De ne the social issue De ne the social issue underlying needs of establish the impact the programme is likely to have vulnerable children and on the target outcome. young people. Given that these individuals often come This is dependent on two considerations: Develop social Develop social Develop social intervention strategy from a family environment intervention strategy intervention strategy P The degree to which interventions are well in which multiple risk factors understood and can be evidenced. are present, we recognise that no single intervention p Illustration of intervention development: Develop is suitable in all cases. Develop Develop operating model Develop operating model Develop operating model Social Finance is undertaking a review of Develop outcomes Therefore, SIB funding aims outcomes outcomese metrics Value metrics Value the Value metrics interventions relevant to the definedme and outcome to bring togetheroutcome suite and a and outcome Estimate control Estimate control Estimate target group. This involves investigating control budget for of interventions that are budget for budget for service service service qualitative and quantitative evaluations, tailored to address the needs interviewing service provider staff members of both the young person Develop and analysing how these interventions and his/her family members, Develop Develop nancial model nancial model nancialmeet the needs of the target group and model and which reflect the local improve their outcomes. Basic circumstances Basic which the in Basic SIB structure programme operates. SIB structure SIB structure developed developed P Whether developed there is a gap or scarcity of service provision to the target population such that A first step is to identify the SIB investment is likely to lead to a significant underlying needs of the change in the target outcome. target group, which the selected interventions will tackle. Once the profile of needs is understood an p Illustration of intervention development: intervention programme can be developed. To do this, If there were little existing support for there needs to be a review of both national and local families of young people who are at risk service providers to identify where complementary of entering or who have entered the interventions could best meet the needs of the care system then investment in this area target population and achieve the desired outcome. is likely to yield higher social returns and The SIB funding structure encourages all service consequently financial returns to investors. providers to work collaboratively towards achieving the target outcome. Key Question: Is there a compelling intervention programme to solve the social issue? Technical Guide: Vulnerable Children and Young People 6
  7. 7. Building the business case Developing the business case a metric needs to be linked to cashable savings for a SIB comprises several on the part of the public sector commissioner. De ne the social issue De ne the social issue parallel work streams which Whether or not suitable metrics can be identified are set out below. is a key determinant of whether or not a SIB is the appropriate instrument for addressing an Developing the Operating identified social issue. Care should be taken that the Develop social Model & Intervention Costs Develop social selected metric avoids perverse incentives. In order intervention strategy intervention strategy Given that SIBs are likely to to measure the direct impact of the SIB-funded fund a consortia of service interventions on outcomes, a baseline or control providers, it is necessary to group is required. Whether a historical baseline can Develop operating have aoperating robust understanding Develop be used or a comparison group is required depends model Develop outcomes of the total programme model Develop outcomes on the stability of historical data and the availability metrics Value metrics Value and outcome delivery costs, outcome and including of a suitable comparable population. Estimate control Estimate controlbudget for service infrastructure and overhead budget for service costs. The development of Illustration of outcome metrics: the outcome an indicative budget for the metrics against which success can be assessed are Develop proposed suite of services Develop likely to include a combination of objective and nancial model nancial model will determine the level of subjective metrics. The basket of metrics might funding that will need to be include an objective indicator linked to cost savings Basic Basic SIB structure raised from investors through SIB structure such as a percentage change in those entering care developed developed the SIB. or a percentage reduction in the number of care weeks. Alongside this there might be a robust indexIt is important at the feasibility stage to consider the of target population well-being. The inclusion ofpractical implications of how the SIB can operate. a well-being measure in the portfolio of outcomeEngagement with a commissioner is helpful to measurements would help guard against perverseunderstand how the portfolio of SIB interventions incentives whereby a young person was preventedcould sit alongside the local authority’s “business as from becoming looked after when it was in theusual” processes. best interests of that young person to be looked after. Another outcome metric to consider is thatIllustration of Operating Model: discussions with of school attendance. This is an indirect outcomethe local authority commissioner may result in an metric but one which could be linked to betteragreement that referral to the SIB occurs at a point long-term outcomes for the young person. Socialwhen cases are taken to review at the Children’s Finance is undertaking a detailed study of potentialResource Panel. An agreed set of eligibility criteria outcome metrics and associated comparison groupwould be required so that social workers reviewing design for a SIB based on our hypothesis above.the cases could easily identify those who should beconsidered for the SIB intervention. There would Outcome Valuationneed to be a plan in place for systematic monitoring The outcome valuation for a SIB is the average publicof performance and collection of data through a sector cost saving resulting from an improvementcase-management system dedicated to the SIB. A in the outcome. It should be noted that for thesystem of governance would need to be outlined purposes of analysing the potential returns tofor the SIB. investors, the outcome value is narrowly defined in terms of the cost savings accruing to specific publicDetermining the Outcome Metric & Control Group sector budgets.The outcome metrics form the foundation of the SIBcontract between the public sector and investors. All Illustration of outcome valuation: Local Authoritystakeholders need to trust that there is an objective social care cost savings due to a reduction in caremechanism for assessing and agreeing the degree placement costs. This potentially could be combinedto which social outcomes have been achieved. Such with other sources of savings where the relevantTechnical Guide: Vulnerable Children and Young People 7
  8. 8. Figure 2: Illustrative Outcome Valuation – average placement cost of a young person Type of placement Probability of admission Average cost per care Estimated average length into placement (Column A) week (Column B) of stay in care for 10-15 year olds (Column C) Fostered (In-House) 40% £400 Fostered (External) 20% £900 60 weeks Residential 20% £3,500 (based on the estimation that Placed with parents 3% £200 majority will stay Kinship 15% £200 in care for less than 2 years) Secure accommodation 1% £5,000 Other 2% £200 Calculation: Step 1 - Column A x Column B = Average cost of placement per person per week Step 2 - Average cost of placement per person per week x length of stay in care (Column C) Average placement cost throughout individual’s care journey = £68,000 (excluding social services and legal costs)outcomes were achieved as a direct impact of the A quantification of broader social outcomes (e.g.SIB-funded interventions. Some examples include: safer communities due to reduced antisocial behaviour, improved school attendance leadingP a reduction in local youth offending costs if to better qualifications) reflect important social the SIB-funded interventions reduce offending benefits, but do not release cash from public sector behaviour amongst adolescents in the target budgets that could be used to make outcomes-based group. payments to investors in a realistic time frame. This may change over time.P a reduction in costs of places at Pupil Referral Units if school exclusions were reduced amongst the target group.The calculation set out in Figure 2 illustrates howone might start to value the outcome of preventinga young person from entering care. Key Question: Does the financial model generate savings to the Local Authority and a return to investors in an acceptable time frame? Technical Guide: Vulnerable Children and Young People8
  9. 9. Developing the financial model The financial model aims to This is essential to developing a financially viable reflect the economics of the investment proposition on which to raise capital. De ne the social issue SIB. It estimates the costs of interventions, overheads A reasonable time horizon for the investment is and other fixed costs which critical. Investors would prefer to see a SIB that together determine the level matures within a time horizon of around 5 years. of investment required over Therefore there needs to be a tight timescale Develop social intervention strategy the period of the SIB. Set between intervention, measurement of impact against this will be the share and payment on outcomes achieved. This is a of the cost savings agreed consideration particularly in examples such as early by the commissioner to be years intervention (0-5 year olds). If the outcome Develop distributed to investors should metric is educational attainment, but it is necessaryoperating model Develop outcomes a sufficient improvement in to wait 11 years (age 5 to 16 years old) to measure Value metrics and outcome outcomes be achieved. GCSE results for the target population, this will not Estimate controlbudget for make for a feasible SIB. For such a model to work, service The financial model requires an earlier measure regarded as a reliable predictor consideration of three of future performance is necessary. Develop factors: nancial model The focus on adolescents (aged 10–15 years old) P Intervention costs provides a relatively compact time frame over Basic which to measure outcomes. For this age group, SIB structure P Outcome values research shows that if a young person remains developed looked after for more than a short time period (e.g. P Time horizon to realise 3 months), the likelihood of remaining looked after investment returns on a long-term basis increases. Outcomes for theSIBs work when the costs of achieving the target young person become much worse with long-termoutcome (intervention costs plus overheads and care. Therefore one approach could be to measurefixed costs) are substantially lower than the level of placement-related outcomes at 3 or 6 months post-the resulting public sector savings (outcome value). intervention. Key Question: Does the financial model generate savings to the Local Authority and a return to investors in an acceptable time frame?Next stepsWe hope the process outlined above is helpful in We invite you to join the Social Impact Bond forumdeveloping a feasible SIB model. Social Finance to connect with other interested stakeholders, orwould be delighted to engage with you in order to participate in our ongoing series of webinars.support progress towards implementation. As a firststep we would ask you to submit your responses to www.socialfinance.org.uk/forumthe key questions set out in the appendix. We wish you all the best with your SIB developmentFor more information please review our and look forward to working together.publications:Towards a New Social Economy – Blended valuecreation through Social Impact Bonds (March 2010).Social Impact Bonds – Unlocking Investment inRehabilitation (September 2010).Technical Guide: Vulnerable Children and Young People 9
  10. 10. Appendix: Key SIB Questions 1. Social issue What is the social issue you are trying to solve? e.g. Improve outcomes for vulnerable young people in and on the edge of care What are the systemic causes of this issue? e.g. under-provision of services that address both the needs of young people at risk and their families Are there interventions that have been shown to improve this issue? 2. Outcomes What would the desired outcome of the social impact e.g. Reduced entry into care or number of bond be? care weeks; improved social outcomes for young people How would the improvement in the social outcome be e.g. Comparison data from other Local measured? Authorities, distance travelled Are there existing objective measures of the outcome? e.g. Government data on looked-after children population numbers and outcomes; National Indicators reflecting social outcomes What is the current outcome for the target group? e.g. 10-15 year olds make up more than 30% of those entering care; poor health and education outcomes 3. Target population How would you define the target group who would e.g. 10-15 year olds with behavioural receive services funded by a SIB? problems referred to a resource panel in a particular Local Authority Can you define the target group objectively? e.g. 10-15 year olds, referred to particular panel What criteria would you use to define the target group objectively? How do we identify people who are in the target group? How many people are in the target group? What are their needs? e.g. Behavioural and emotional problems, domestic violence, offending behaviour, mental health problems, drug/alcohol abuse How does the support need vary across the target group? Technical Guide: Vulnerable Children and Young People10
  11. 11. 4. Interventions What are the proposed interventions to be funded by a e.g. Adolescents or family support services, SIB? counselling services, drug/alcohol services What are the proposed organisations to be funded through a SIB? Is there evidence that these interventions are effective at achieving the desired social outcome? Is there a quantitative (statistically significant) evidence base? Has an independent evaluation of the intervention been undertaken? How have these interventions improved the outcome How much do these interventions cost to deliver per e.g. £5000 per family over 6 months person who receives them? 5. Value of the outcomes Which government department(s) will financially benefit if e.g. Local Authority Children’s Services the social outcome is achieved? How will these cost savings be achieved? e.g. Reduced placement costs How much will the government save if the outcome is e.g. Average placement cost per young achieved? person per year around £40,000 Are these cost savings cashable? i.e. Can the savings be realised (e.g. placements that are spot purchased are easily cashable)Technical Guide: Vulnerable Children and Young People 11
  12. 12. About the authorsLisa Barclay Diane MakLisa is a Director at Social Finance. She joined Social Diane is an Associate at Social Finance, prior to whichFinance from Bridges Ventures where she was an she was a Fellow at the International Growth CentreAssistant Director. She focused on making private at the London School of Economics, which offersequity investments which would yield both financial independent advice on economic growth to countriesand social returns. Prior to this, Lisa founded an in Africa and Asia. Before that, Diane worked ine-government software business and worked as a the Policy and Research team of Transparencystrategy consultant for Marakon Associates. Lisa International, where she was Contributing Editorstarted her career as a public policy advisor focusing of the Global Corruption Report. Diane started heron Treasury, Transport and Employment policy areas. career in the investment banking division at CitigroupShe was a Special Advisor at the Department for Global Markets, where she worked on a number ofEducation and Employment. Lisa holds a BA in Social M&A and capital raising transactions in the consumerand Political Sciences from Cambridge University and and retail sector. Diane holds a Master in Publica MBA from London Business School. Administration in International Development from Harvard Kennedy School, and has a BA in Economicslisa.barclay@socialfinance.org.uk from Trinity College, Cambridge. diane.mak@socialfinance.org.uk Disclaimer and Terms of Use This report is not an offering of any Notes for Sale and is provided by Social Finance solely for information purposes. Neither Social Finance nor any of their respective affiliates, directors, officers, employees or agents makes any express or implied representation, warranty or undertaking with respect to this Document, and none of them accepts any responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. Social Finance has not assumed any responsibility for independent verification of the information contained herein or otherwise made available in connection to the Document. The text in this Document may be reproduced free of charge providing that it is reproduced accurately and not used in a misleading context. The material must be acknowledged as Social Finance copyright and the title of the document be specified.
  13. 13. Social Finance is building a pioneeringorganisation to develop financial products thatmarry the ambitions of investors and the socialsector. We support social organisations to raiseand deploy capital; we work with governmentto deliver social change; and we develop socialinvestment markets and opportunities.Many charities and social enterprises face seriousfinancial challenges that stop them from carrying out theirwork effectively. We believe that, if social problems are to betackled successfully, organisations seeking to solve them needsustainable revenues and investment to innovate and grow.Our role is to devise the financial structures and raise the capitalto enable this to happen.Social Finance injects market principles into funding in a waythat stands or falls on results – both social and financial. Ourfinancial products forge essential links between the market,government and society.In these times more than ever, there is a pressing need toharness social investment to make a long term difference tosociety. This is our ambition.Social Finance Ltd131–151 Great Titchfield StreetLondon, W1W 5BBt: +44 (0) 20 7667 6370e: info@socialfinance.org.ukwww.socialfinance.org.uk© Social Finance 2011 | Social Finance is Authorised and Regulated by the Financial Services Authority FSA No: 497568