Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.
SET WP 1
Review of megatrends in Energy Sector
Jukka-Pekka Bergman, Igor Dukeov, Tero Ahonen et al.
27.1.2017
1
2
Content
1. The Megatrends framing transformation of
energy sector
2. The Futures of Energy in Finland by
Neocarbon Proje...
Megatrends framing the
transformation of energy sector
3
The purpose of the study
The study examines diversity of the megatrends that were discussed in
different global future rep...
Selected Globally Oriented Reports
1. UN World Economic and Social Survey 2011
2. EEA 2015 Megatrends
3. WEF Outlook on th...
 Globalisation and
Internationalisation
 “Peak Everything” – Shortage of
Resources
 Urbanisation - City of the Future
...
1. GLOBALIZATION
 Globalization requires scalable personalized solutions
 Globally, small countries as Finland can be se...
4. TECHNOLOGY/ENERGY
 Technology development is fastening continuously in ICT, nano-, and biotechnologies along with the ...
SET Delphi Study 2016
The recognized driving forces for Finnish energy
sector:
1. EU and international regulation
• Regula...
Neo- Carbon Energy Scenarios 2050
Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC)
1/2016
11
Four transformative scenarios 2050 for
Neo-Carbon Energy
12
Notions from the SET perspective
• All scenarios stress the strong awareness of environmental values.
• The scenarios are ...
Energy and Climate Strategy 2030
of Finland
reflections from the megatrend perspective
14
The key dimensions of the strategy
The national energy system should…
1. enhance competitive advantage of Finland and its ...
The goal of strategy is to fulfill…
• UN Paris 2016 agreement
• hold the increase of temperature under 2ºC
• EU’s 2030 tar...
It is assumed that…
• total consumption of energy begins to decrease
• biomass secures renewable energy production
• excep...
1. Increase share of renewable energy to 47% of total usage of
energy mainly based on biomass
2. Increase share of renewab...
In national level, the energy and climate strategy of
Finland relies on opportunism on technology
development and global m...
The work continues…
www.smartenergytransition.fiwww.smartenergytransition.fi
Thank You!
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Jukka-Pekka Bergman - Igor Dukeov - Tero Ahonen - Smart Energy Transition - Review of megatrends in Energy Sector - Aalto University - Lappeenranta University of Technology - LUT - 27.1.2017 - Research Seminar - Strategic Research

232 views

Published on

Jukka-Pekka Bergman - Igor Dukeov - Tero Ahonen - Smart Energy Transition - Review of megatrends in Energy Sector - Aalto University - Lappeenranta University of Technology - LUT - 27.1.2017 - Research Seminar - Strategic Research

Published in: Environment
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

Jukka-Pekka Bergman - Igor Dukeov - Tero Ahonen - Smart Energy Transition - Review of megatrends in Energy Sector - Aalto University - Lappeenranta University of Technology - LUT - 27.1.2017 - Research Seminar - Strategic Research

  1. 1. SET WP 1 Review of megatrends in Energy Sector Jukka-Pekka Bergman, Igor Dukeov, Tero Ahonen et al. 27.1.2017 1
  2. 2. 2 Content 1. The Megatrends framing transformation of energy sector 2. The Futures of Energy in Finland by Neocarbon Project 3. Notions of the National Energy and Climate Strategy 2030
  3. 3. Megatrends framing the transformation of energy sector 3
  4. 4. The purpose of the study The study examines diversity of the megatrends that were discussed in different global future reports and shows the key elements of the megatrends. The key aim of this study is, firstly, to understand the global megatrends and how they are framing the future development of the energy sector in Finland. Secondly, to enhance leaders’ ability to recognize patterns of behavior that may differ from conventional view spread in their operational environment.
  5. 5. Selected Globally Oriented Reports 1. UN World Economic and Social Survey 2011 2. EEA 2015 Megatrends 3. WEF Outlook on the Global Agenda 2015 4. SHELL Paradoxes 5. IEA - International Energy Agency 6. NORDIC Energy Technology Perspectives 7. Sitra, 2015 8. Neo Carbon Energy Project, VTT 9. Impact assessment of global megatrends (EEA), 2014 10. Megatrends in the global energy transition, 2015 11.Top 10 Mega Trends and Their Impact on Business, Cultures and Society, 2014 12.The EU - Energy Roadmap 2050, The EU - European Commission 2011 13. Meetings and Conventions 2030: A study of megatrends shaping our industry, 2013
  6. 6.  Globalisation and Internationalisation  “Peak Everything” – Shortage of Resources  Urbanisation - City of the Future  Demographic Change, Feminisation and Diversity  Sustainable Development  Mobility of the Future  Security and Safety German Convention Bureau  Increasing global divergence in population trends  Living in an urban world  Disease burdens and the risk of new pandemics  Accelerating technological change – racing into the unknown  Continued economic growth?  From a unipolar to a multipolar world  Intensified global competition for resources  Decreasing stocks of natural resources  Increasingly severe consequences of climate change  Increasing environmental pollution load  Environmental regulation and governance – increasing fragmentation and convergence The Swedish Environmental Protection Agency  The end of the fossil era has begun  The energy future has already begun  The energy future is renewable  The energy future is decentralised  The energy future is digital  The Future of Energy WWF Germany and LichtBlick SE  Urbanization: Mega Cities, Mega Regions, Mega Corridors, Smart Cities  E-Mobility  Social Trends: Geo Socialization, Generation Y and Reverse Brain Drain  SPACE JAM: Congested Satellite Orbits  World War 3: Cyber Warfare  RoboSlaves  Virtual World: Fluid Interfaces and Haptic Technology  Innovating to Zero ! : Zero Emission Technologies  Emerging Transportation Corridors  Health, Wellness and Well-Being Frost & Sullivan  Shifting to renewable energy  Transforming the building stock of every continent into green micro- power plants to collect renewable energies on-site  Deploying hydrogen and other storage technologies in every building and throughout the infrastructure to store intermittent energies  Using Internet technology to transform power grid of every continent into an energy internet that acts just like the Internet (when millions of buildings are generating a small amount of renewable energy locally, on-site, they can sell surplus green electricity back to the grid and share it with their continental neighbours)  Transitioning the transport fleet to electric plug-in and fuel cell vehicles on a smart, continental, interactive power grid. Neo Carbon Energy: Rifkin’s five pilars •Deepening income inequality •Persistent jobless growth •Lack of leadership •Rising geostrategic competition •Weakening of representative democracy •Rising pollution in the developing world •Increasing occurrence of severe weather events •Intensifying nationalism •Increasing water stress •Growing importance of health in the economy WEF Outlook on the Global Agenda 2015 The green economy as the new paradigm UN World Economic and Social Survey 2011 Decarbonisation is possible – and can be less costly than current policies in the long-run Higher capital expenditure and lower fuel costs Electricity plays an increasing role Electricity prices rise until 2030 and then decline Household expenditure will increase Energy savings throughout the system are crucial Renewables rise substantially Carbon capture and storage has to play a pivotal role in system transformation Nuclear energy provides an important contribution Decentralisation and centralised systems increasingly interact 8 EU - EUROPEAN COMMISSION 2011 IEA - International Energy Agency The use of low-carbon energy sources is expanding rapidly, and there are signs that growth in the global economy and energy- related emissions may be starting to decouple Growth in global energy-related GHG emissions slows, but there is no peak by 2030 in the INDC Scenario  The prosperity paradox  The connectivity paradox  The Leadership Paradox SHELL Paradoxes  Climate Change  The Future of Energy  Smart is the New Green  The Future of Mobility  Urbanization  The Future of Infrastructure Sitra 2015  Climate change  Energy-related emissions NORDIC Energy Technology Perspectives  Diverging global population trends  Towards a more urban world  Changing disease burdens and risks of pandemics  Accelerating technological change  Continued economic growth?  An increasingly multipolar world  Intensified global competition for resources  Growing pressures on ecosystems  Increasingly severe consequences of climate change  Increasing environmental pollution  Diversifying approaches to governance EEA 2015 Megatrends Megatrends
  7. 7. 1. GLOBALIZATION  Globalization requires scalable personalized solutions  Globally, small countries as Finland can be seen having a “mindset of personalization” creating solutions for small populations  We cannot beat our competitors in “bulk” products like solar panels, heat pumps, and wind turbines, but in... 2. URBANIZATION  Hot Spots of Energy Consumption and mobility/transportation  The biggest industrial areas consume the largest amount of energy. But, an urban area often is not the best one for energy generation.  Small-scale areal renewable energy systems could offer opportunities to secure the increasing need for energy in urban areas where cannot build (anymore) large centralised systems.  Finland should prioritize R&D activities into the short distance energy transmission, smart gridding, and energy storage 3. ENVIRONMENT/CLIMATE  The changes in global ecosystem generates local level extreme environmental events.  Finland have expertise in arctic climate and environment as well as in forest environment and related chemical processes.  Mobile areal energy systems and energy efficiency solutions, special equipment for extreme conditions as robotics and energy storage The key messages of megatrends
  8. 8. 4. TECHNOLOGY/ENERGY  Technology development is fastening continuously in ICT, nano-, and biotechnologies along with the growing need in renewable energy generate scalable niche innovations in, for example  analysis of big data from machines, security of global energy networks, optimization of production processes, personalized energy services, robotic control of energy generation and consumption. 5. ECONOMICS  Global economy is diversifying and existing institutions are struggling with their roles in relation to new actors  These changes requires new approach in regulation and governing structures  Finland could take very active role in those activities the development of new “world order”  We have an opportunity to learn from the near history how to influence global process for own benefit, e.g. NMT, GMS, and green certificate processes. The key messages of megatrends
  9. 9. SET Delphi Study 2016 The recognized driving forces for Finnish energy sector: 1. EU and international regulation • Regulation and agreements on transition to renewable energy systems (incentives) 2. Innovations in the field of energy production, transmission, and storage technologies • Smart grids, heat pumps, wind power, solar panels, energy from waste 3. Innovations on the field of energy efficiency • Buildings, ICT services, energy intensive industry 4. Digitalization and automatization of energy systems • Digital services in energy efficiency, role of prosumers 5. Global agreements in Climate Change • Paris 2016 Climate Agreement • CO2 emission restrictions globally and regionally
  10. 10. Neo- Carbon Energy Scenarios 2050 Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC) 1/2016 11
  11. 11. Four transformative scenarios 2050 for Neo-Carbon Energy 12
  12. 12. Notions from the SET perspective • All scenarios stress the strong awareness of environmental values. • The scenarios are technology driven, especially ICT and advanced cleantech. • Humans and energy are within the globally networked system. • Difference comes from scale operations and actors • Radical startups and business drives societies, or • Large corporations and monopolized markets control societies, or • DIY communities and common good sustain societies, or • Technology, markets, and societies are highly democratically organized 13
  13. 13. Energy and Climate Strategy 2030 of Finland reflections from the megatrend perspective 14
  14. 14. The key dimensions of the strategy The national energy system should… 1. enhance competitive advantage of Finland and its actors in global business, 2. be environmentally sustainable, and 3. be secure. 15
  15. 15. The goal of strategy is to fulfill… • UN Paris 2016 agreement • hold the increase of temperature under 2ºC • EU’s 2030 targets • to increase usage of renewable energy 27% of total, • to increase of energy efficiency 27%, • to decrease of CO2 emissions 43% 16
  16. 16. It is assumed that… • total consumption of energy begins to decrease • biomass secures renewable energy production • exceptionality of Finnish forests as Carbon sink is understood • energy efficient infrastructure and mobility despite of sparsely populated area • global sustainable actions and demand provide solutions • new technologies emerge in global market 17 The key enablers implementing strategy
  17. 17. 1. Increase share of renewable energy to 47% of total usage of energy mainly based on biomass 2. Increase share of renewable energy in transportation to 40% mainly based on biofuels with the help of electric vehicles 3. Increase level of Self-sufficiency in energy to 55% of total mainly based on biomass supported by solar, wind, geothermal energy 4. Decrease level of imported oil to 50% of the present level 5. Give up using coal for energy generation 18 How to make it hapen in Finland?
  18. 18. In national level, the energy and climate strategy of Finland relies on opportunism on technology development and global markets. However, the most advanced firms and individuals are able to take more proactive approach and have potential to benefit from the global energy transformation. 19 Opportunistic vs. Progressive approach?
  19. 19. The work continues…
  20. 20. www.smartenergytransition.fiwww.smartenergytransition.fi Thank You!

×