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Smart energy disruption in Finland – How
to benefit?
Jero Ahola, LUT
17.2.2016
Transition
period from
fossil fuels
based energy
system to net
CO2-free
system ~35 a
World energy transitions 1850-2050
So...
The de-carbonization of the electricity and heat
generation mandatory but not sufficient at all
Biomass is not a
sustainab...
Available energy sources on earth
Source: Richard Perez & Marc Perez, “A Fundamental Look at Energy Reserves for the Plane...
Candidates to disruptive energy technologies
to form the basis for the future energy system
1) Renewable
Power
generation
...
A large portion of intermittent power
generation requires all kind of flexibility into
the energy system
Source: C. Breyer...
Power electronics – embedded part of
disruptive energy technologies
Source: Fraunhofer-institute for Solar Energy Systems ...
Energy efficiency solutions – a means to
reduce the total cost energy transformation
• Not necessarily new technology, ins...
Finnish energy system has to be also “Paris”
compatible (net zero CO2 emissions) by 2050
Source: Michael Child, Christian ...
Definitely this means the next electrification:
The doubling of electricity generation from year
2012 by 2050
Source: Mich...
The role of P2X: Almost half of electricity will
be used used to produce fuels for
transportation & seasonal storage
Sourc...
Power-to-X: Manufacturing of hydro-
carbons with electric power from air
SYNTHESIS REACTOR
SYSTEM
Electrolysis
H2
H2
stora...
Finland
Lappeenranta region cluster:
Kaukas
• 20 000 tO2/a by ASU
• fossil CO2: 0.1 Mt
• biogenic CO2: 1.5 Mt
• BioVerno
J...
Electrical fuels - Methane production potential
from renewable H2 and bio-CO2 of Finnish pulp
and paper industry
Source: T...
Conclusion
• We are in the middle of energy transition: “The electrification of the
whole energy system”
• There are sever...
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Jero Ahola, LUT, Smart energy disruption in Finland - how to benefit? 17022016

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Jero Ahola, Lappeenranta University of Technology, in Smart Energy Transition research seminar 17.2.2016.

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Jero Ahola, LUT, Smart energy disruption in Finland - how to benefit? 17022016

  1. 1. Smart energy disruption in Finland – How to benefit? Jero Ahola, LUT 17.2.2016
  2. 2. Transition period from fossil fuels based energy system to net CO2-free system ~35 a World energy transitions 1850-2050 Source: Original picture from GEA Summary 2011, available at http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/ENE/GEA/index.html.accessed 6.8.2012 From wood to coal ~ 80 years From coal to oil ~ 30 years Increasing quality of the primary fuel 2050 The second electrification 2011
  3. 3. The de-carbonization of the electricity and heat generation mandatory but not sufficient at all Biomass is not a sustainable energy source in large part of the World. 77% (CO2) Transportation 13.5% Electricity & heat 24.6% Industry + others 26% CO2 emissions distribution Land use change 18% Agriculture & Waste 17%
  4. 4. Available energy sources on earth Source: Richard Perez & Marc Perez, “A Fundamental Look at Energy Reserves for the Planet”
  5. 5. Candidates to disruptive energy technologies to form the basis for the future energy system 1) Renewable Power generation Solar, wind 2) Smart-grid & Electrical Energy Storages 3) Bridging technologies P2H, P2X, heat pumps, fuel cells 4) CO2 extraction and efficient energy end use CO2 capture, desalination, e- mobility, LED:s, ICT in general providing flexibility and enabling energy efficiency • Technology: hardware & software, price decreases and performance improves, the improvement is driven by the development of technology
  6. 6. A large portion of intermittent power generation requires all kind of flexibility into the energy system Source: C. Breyer et al., North-East Asian Super Grid: Renewable Energy Mix and Economics, WCPEC-6, Kyoto, Nov. 2014.
  7. 7. Power electronics – embedded part of disruptive energy technologies Source: Fraunhofer-institute for Solar Energy Systems (ISE), Current and Future Costs of Photovoltaics – Long-term Scenarios for Market Development, System Prices and LCOE of Utility-scale PV systems, study on the behalf of Agora Energiewende, 2015 • In future majority of electric power will go through the power electronics at least twice before consumed in the end applications • Power electronics hosts algorithms and methods enabling energy efficiency, demand response, and smart grid • ~5-10% share in the investment cost of disruptive energy technologies (part of those) Learning rate: 18.9% Cost reductions driven by increasing power density
  8. 8. Energy efficiency solutions – a means to reduce the total cost energy transformation • Not necessarily new technology, instead: • Systems approach to energy conversion chains • New design practices, correct dimensioning, real-time measurements, intelligent control, etc • In general more electrification and variable speed drives Source: Redrawing energy climate map, IEA (International Energy Agency), 2013. Investment costs Savings in energy costs Economic limit Economical energy efficiency savings Target state with systems approcach Starting point reference system
  9. 9. Finnish energy system has to be also “Paris” compatible (net zero CO2 emissions) by 2050 Source: Michael Child, Christian Breyer, Vision and Initial Feasibility analysis of Recarbonized Finnish Energy System. ~165 TWh of CO2- net-emitting energy consumption Paris compatible scenarios2012
  10. 10. Definitely this means the next electrification: The doubling of electricity generation from year 2012 by 2050 Source: Michael Child, Christian Breyer, Vision and Initial Feasibility analysis of Recarbonized Finnish Energy System. 90 TWh/a 190 TWh/a
  11. 11. The role of P2X: Almost half of electricity will be used used to produce fuels for transportation & seasonal storage Source: Michael Child, Christian Breyer, Vision and Initial Feasibility analysis of Recarbonized Finnish Energy System.
  12. 12. Power-to-X: Manufacturing of hydro- carbons with electric power from air SYNTHESIS REACTOR SYSTEM Electrolysis H2 H2 storage CO2 separation CO2 storage FT synthesis Aromatisation Renewable electricity Water Air CO2 Electricity CH4 synthesis MeOH synthesisBiomass, gasification Fuels, chemicals Benzene, plastics, SNG Fuels SNG Aromates Benzene, toluene, xylene Bio-power hybrids H2 Product separation In collaboration with VTT
  13. 13. Finland Lappeenranta region cluster: Kaukas • 20 000 tO2/a by ASU • fossil CO2: 0.1 Mt • biogenic CO2: 1.5 Mt • BioVerno Joutseno, Imatra • Combined bio: 3.8 Mt MtCO2 Fossil Biogenic Total Finland 3.56 17.17 20.73 Sweden 1.22 22.39 23.61 Norway 0.03 0.32 0.35 Sweden Södra Cell Värö • Fossil 0.04 • Biogenic ~1 Mt • Capacity expansion ongoing • Rail Värö Kaukas 1 MWh CH4 -> 198 kgCO2 CO2 emissions of Finnish pulp and paper industry Source: Hannu Karjunen & Tero Tynjälä, LUT
  14. 14. Electrical fuels - Methane production potential from renewable H2 and bio-CO2 of Finnish pulp and paper industry Source: The carbon footprint of lime kilns. Manning, R., Tran, H., et al. TAPPI 2010 UPM • Pulp: 3.1 Mt/apulp = 1.7 Mtbio-C* → 2.2 MtCH4 = 30 TWh • Bark: 8.8 TWh = 1 Mtbio-C → 1.26 MtCH4 = 17 TWh • BioVerno = 1.2 TWh/a * emission from production Stora Enso • 1.7 times = 84 TWh Metsä group • 0.8 times = 40 TWh 170 TWh CH4 4.7 MtCO2 on mass basis CO2 is the main product of a pulp mill 170 TWh = Oil & gas consupt. in Finland, Estonia and Latvia The carbon balance (t/d) of a 1000t/d kraft pulp mill
  15. 15. Conclusion • We are in the middle of energy transition: “The electrification of the whole energy system” • There are several visible signs of this transition; 1) wind and solar power are becoming the least cost electricity generation techniques, 2) the power generation is becoming more distributed (by location & ownership), 3) the cost of storing electric energy decreasing, 4) the proportion of electric vehicles is increasing, etc • Hydrocarbons in the forms of fuels, chemical feeds, human foods and animal feeds are still needed. These have to be electrified also by power- to-x technologies • Finland is both a target of disruption and can benefit from it, providing technology, services, and software: • Power electronics, energy efficiency solutions, P-to-X technologies • Forest industry is a large source of Bio-CO2 ,could be used as a raw material for biofuels, bio-chemicals, bio-materials

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