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BRIAN VAD MATHIESEN
bvm@plan.aau.dk, @brianvad
Smart Energy Transition seminar: Interacting energy, industry and innovatio...
TRANSITION FROM A CENTRALISED ENERGY
SYSTEM TO A PARTLY DE-CENTRALISED
SYSTEM BASED ON RENEWABLE ENERGY
2
TRANSITION FROM A CENTRALISED ENERGY
SYSTEM TO A PARTLY DE-CENTRALISED
SYSTEM BASED ON RENEWABLE ENERGY
3
S T A T U S 2 0 ...
Biomass
PhotoVoltaics
Windpower
Danish Potentials
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1970 '75 1980 1985 1990 1995 ...
5
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Import / Export and balance of payment
Olie Naturgas Kul El Biomasse Eksport af energi...
STUDY FOR THE EU27
by
Aalborg University
David Connolly
Brian Vad Mathiesen
Poul Alberg Østergaard
Bernd Möller
Steffen Ni...
HRE: Key Conclusion
• For EU a combination of:
– 50% District Heating (Cities)
– 50% Heat Pumps (Rural Areas)
– 35% Energy...
Today’s Heat Demand from Peta3
(www.heatroadmap.eu)
London
<5% DH
Copenhagen
>90% DH 
Roma
<5% DH
Bucharest
~75% DH 
Proven Technology!
Renewable Energy vs. District Heating
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0% 20% 40% 60%
RenewableEnergyShar...
10
• We want to decrease the use of
fossil fuels but:
– The current system is
extremely flexible…
– W e cannot replace the...
RENEWABLE ENERGY STRATEGIES
FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
F L E X I B L E
T E C H N O L O G I E S
I N T E G R A T E D
E N E ...
World oil prices
Oil price projections
Electricity prices in Denmark
Electricity prices in Denmark
ELECTRICI TY EXCHANGE IS MORE
AND MORE IMPORTANT…
..BUT THE SYSTEM RE-DESIGN IS MORE
IMPORTA...
The Danish and EU Electricity Context
Coherent 2050 analyses
• 100% is possible technically and
economically feasible with smart
energy systems
• Future need to...
Energy and clean-tech policy opportunties
in Finland?
18
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1970 '75 1980 1985 199...
W W W . E NE R G Y P L A N . E U
W W W . HE AT R O A D M A P . E U
W W W . S M AR T E N E R G Y S Y S T E MS . E U
W W W ....
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Brian Vad Mathiesen - How To Create Green Growth From Clean Energy - The Danish energy transition and smart energy systems - Smart Energy Transition - Aalborg University - Aalto University - Seminar - August 28 2017

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Brian Vad Mathiesen - How To Create Green Growth From Clean Energy - The Danish energy transition and smart energy systems - Smart Energy Transition - Aalborg University - Aalto University - Seminar - August 28 2017 - Sustainable Energy Planning Research Group

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Brian Vad Mathiesen - How To Create Green Growth From Clean Energy - The Danish energy transition and smart energy systems - Smart Energy Transition - Aalborg University - Aalto University - Seminar - August 28 2017

  1. 1. BRIAN VAD MATHIESEN bvm@plan.aau.dk, @brianvad Smart Energy Transition seminar: Interacting energy, industry and innovation policies Alto University, Helsinki, Finland, AUG/28 2017 SUSTAINABLE ENERGY PLANNING RESEARCH GROUP AALBORG UNIVERSITY HOW TO CREATE GREEN GROWTH FROM CLEAN ENERGY - THE DANISH ENERGY TRANSITION AND SMART ENERGY SYSTEMS
  2. 2. TRANSITION FROM A CENTRALISED ENERGY SYSTEM TO A PARTLY DE-CENTRALISED SYSTEM BASED ON RENEWABLE ENERGY 2
  3. 3. TRANSITION FROM A CENTRALISED ENERGY SYSTEM TO A PARTLY DE-CENTRALISED SYSTEM BASED ON RENEWABLE ENERGY 3 S T A T U S 2 0 1 5 : • > 4 2 % W I N D P O W E R • M O R E T H A N 1 0 0 . 0 0 0 W I N D T U R B I N E O W N E R S • H I G H S H A R E O F O F F S H O R E • 3 0 % D I S T R I B U T E D O P E R A T I O N A N D A P P . 5 0 % F R O M C H P • M O R E T H A N 6 0 % H A S D I S T R I C T H E A T I N G • L A R G E S H A R E O F H E A T S A V I N G S O F F I C I A L T A R G E T : 1 0 0 % R E N E W AB L E E N E R G Y IN 2 0 5 0 IN C L . T R AN S P O R T
  4. 4. Biomass PhotoVoltaics Windpower Danish Potentials 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1970 '75 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Primary Energy Supply, PJ Olie Naturgas Kul og koks Andet Biomasse Vindmøller Olie til transport 40 YEARS OF ENERGY PLANNING AND MARKET DESIGN 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 1980 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 2000 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 Indeks Energiforbrug Danmark Danmark BNP L O W C O N S U M P T I O N L O W C O S T S S E C U R I T Y O F S U P P L Y L O W C O 2 - E M I S S I O N S
  5. 5. 5 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Import / Export and balance of payment Olie Naturgas Kul El Biomasse Eksport af energiteknologi og -udstyr Balance of payment Energy import Energy export 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 1980 '83 '86 '89 '92 '95 '98 '01 '04 '07 '10 Indeks Energiforbrug Danmark Danmark BNP • Resultater: • Cost-effective sector • Good effect on balance of payment • Jobs and new companies ECONOMIC RESULTS
  6. 6. STUDY FOR THE EU27 by Aalborg University David Connolly Brian Vad Mathiesen Poul Alberg Østergaard Bernd Möller Steffen Nielsen Henrik Lund Halmstad University Urban Persson Daniel Nilsson Sven Werner Ecofys Germany GmbH Jan Grözinger Thosmas Boersmans Michelle Bosquet PlanEnergi Daniel Trier STUDY FOR THE EU27 - D I S S E M I N A T I O N O F R E S E A R C H - E U R E S E A R C H S T R A T E G Y I N F L U E N C E A N D P R O J E C T S - K N O W L E D G E A N D T E C H N O L O G Y T R A N S F E R HEAT ROADMAP CHINA – NEW HEAT STRATEG Y TO REDUCE ENERGY CONSUMPTION TOWARDS 2030 Tsinghua University Weiming Xiong Yu Wang Xiliang Zhang Aalborg University Brian Vad Mathiesen Henrik Lund David Connolly
  7. 7. HRE: Key Conclusion • For EU a combination of: – 50% District Heating (Cities) – 50% Heat Pumps (Rural Areas) – 35% Energy Savings (Everywhere) Can enable the EU to reach its CO2 target in 2050 for €100 billion/year less than energy savings on their own.
  8. 8. Today’s Heat Demand from Peta3 (www.heatroadmap.eu) London <5% DH Copenhagen >90% DH  Roma <5% DH Bucharest ~75% DH 
  9. 9. Proven Technology! Renewable Energy vs. District Heating 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0% 20% 40% 60% RenewableEnergyShareinHeating& Cooling(%) District Heating Share (%) Austria Belgium Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovak Republic Slovenia Spain Sweden United Kingdom This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 695989. www.heatroadmap.eu @HeatRoadmapEU
  10. 10. 10 • We want to decrease the use of fossil fuels but: – The current system is extremely flexible… – W e cannot replace these with biomass only… – W e need to use intermittent renewable ressources! CHALLENGES FOR THE ENERGY SECTOR
  11. 11. RENEWABLE ENERGY STRATEGIES FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT F L E X I B L E T E C H N O L O G I E S I N T E G R A T E D E N E R G Y S Y S T E M S Savings in Energy Denmand Efficiency improvements in energy production Renewable energy sources (RES)
  12. 12. World oil prices
  13. 13. Oil price projections
  14. 14. Electricity prices in Denmark
  15. 15. Electricity prices in Denmark ELECTRICI TY EXCHANGE IS MORE AND MORE IMPORTANT… ..BUT THE SYSTEM RE-DESIGN IS MORE IMPORTANT FOR THE ECONOMY OVERALL
  16. 16. The Danish and EU Electricity Context
  17. 17. Coherent 2050 analyses • 100% is possible technically and economically feasible with smart energy systems • Future need to focus on transmission between the sectors instead of only between countries • A flexible system is robust with regards to costs and biomass consumption. It uses storages intelligently • It provides more jobs (50.000) and lower health costs than fossil fuel systems • In addition export potentials are 20-25 B€ with additional jobs
  18. 18. Energy and clean-tech policy opportunties in Finland? 18 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1970 '75 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Primary Energy Supply, PJ Olie Naturgas Kul og koks Andet Biomasse Vindmøller Olie til transport F I N L A N D D E N M A R K • Need of more Renewable energy? • Climate change? • Energy security? • New businesses and jobs? • Balance of payment? • Energy supply a major part of the economy? • Competitiveness ?
  19. 19. W W W . E NE R G Y P L A N . E U W W W . HE AT R O A D M A P . E U W W W . S M AR T E N E R G Y S Y S T E MS . E U W W W . 4 D H. D K W W W . R E I NV E S T P R O J E C T . E U State of GreenState of Green

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