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Global Opportunities for Renewable
Energy Technologies and Energy
Transition Solutions
A ROADMAP TO
2050
Dolf Gielen, IREN...
Solar & Wind: LCOE/auction price evolution
overview -
Continued rapid cost reduction in the coming years
Source: IRENA
2
I...
REmap – Roadmap for a Renewable Energy
future
» IRENA’s Global Renewable Energy Roadmap
» Shows feasible, cost-effective w...
Renewable energy and energy efficiency can provide
over 90% of the reduction in energy-related CO2
Annual energy-related e...
The global share of renewable energy in energy
supply would need to increase to two-thirds
To achieve a pathway to energy ...
Digitalization augments power sector transformation
Enabling
Infrastruc-
ture
Business
Models
Market
regulation
System
Ope...
Renewable energy should be scaled up to meet
power, heat and transport needs
The share of electricity rises to 40% of TFEC...
Europe: Renewables options in 2030
30% EE Goal
Increases
RE share to
34%
Green colour are
biomass options –
high end of th...
Energy transition in the end use
sectors
• Strong growth of electromobility – 1.2 million EVs sold in 2017
• Heat pump sal...
Transforming energy demand in the transport sector
The transport sector is dominated by fossil fuels and needs to undergo ...
The use of electricity in buildings increases while
the use of fossil fuels declines
Modern renewable energy in the buildi...
New technologies empower the consumer
 Thermostats, lighting and energy monitoring and
controls are increasingly enabled ...
District heating and cooling: an interesting opportunity
• Nine countries assessed accounting for 40% of global DHC
• 21 r...
So-called power-to-X and E-fuels can help in storing
energy and enabling sector coupling
 however conversion efficiency ...
Challenges to Sustainable Bioenergy
Bioenergy is essential to sustainable development:
• Largest form of renewable energy ...
Scale-up Tools & Strategies – IRENA work on
bioenergy
Bioenergy from Finnish Forests:
Sustainable, efficient, modern use o...
Innovation Outlook: Thermal Energy Storage (TES) for RE
Integration
From a mapping exercise – 13 Innovative TES technologi...
Seven applications for TES identified to support RE
integration in energy systems
18Source: IRENA (forthcoming) Innovation...
Thank you!
www.irena.org
www.twitter.com/irena
www.facebook.com/irena.org
www.instagram.com/irenaimages
www.flickr.com/pho...
The importance of fossil fuels is
declining
Under the REmap Case, both oil and coal demand decline significantly and conti...
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Dolf Gielen - Global Opportunities for Renewable Energy Technologies and Energy Transition Solutions - A Roadmap to 2050 - Director of Innovations - Smart Energy Transition - Seminar 26.04.2018 - Aalto University - IRENA

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Dolf Gielen - Global Opportunities for Renewable Energy Technologies and Energy Transition Solutions - A Roadmap to 2050 - Director of Innovations - Smart Energy Transition - Seminar 26.04.2018 - Aalto University - IRENA - Ministry of Foreign Affairs - Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment

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Dolf Gielen - Global Opportunities for Renewable Energy Technologies and Energy Transition Solutions - A Roadmap to 2050 - Director of Innovations - Smart Energy Transition - Seminar 26.04.2018 - Aalto University - IRENA

  1. 1. Global Opportunities for Renewable Energy Technologies and Energy Transition Solutions A ROADMAP TO 2050 Dolf Gielen, IRENA Director Innovation and Technology Seminar How to Manage the seasonality in the renewable energy system during the cold and dark winter weeks Aalto University, 26 April 2018
  2. 2. Solar & Wind: LCOE/auction price evolution overview - Continued rapid cost reduction in the coming years Source: IRENA 2 IRENA costing database of 15000 large scale RE power projects and 1.5 million rooftop PV systems Covering half of all existing and planned RE capacity
  3. 3. REmap – Roadmap for a Renewable Energy future » IRENA’s Global Renewable Energy Roadmap » Shows feasible, cost-effective ways to increase renewable energy deployment in world’s energy mix by 2030 and 2050 in line with SDG7 » Complemented by a socio-economic analysis framework » Support the G20 in determining pathways for renewables deployment and operationalising Paris Agreement with decarbonisation scenarios analysis » Identifies concrete technology options for countries and sectors » Assessment of policy and investment implications » In cooperation with 70 countries » More than 40 publications and datasets » 4 global studies » 12 reports for the largest economies that discuss transition strategies and frameworks » Sectoral roadmaps Newly released April 2018 3
  4. 4. Renewable energy and energy efficiency can provide over 90% of the reduction in energy-related CO2 Annual energy-related emissions must be reduced by over 70% to bring temperature rise to below the 2C goal – this will not happen by itself Annual energy-related CO2 emissions and reductions, 2015-2050 4
  5. 5. The global share of renewable energy in energy supply would need to increase to two-thirds To achieve a pathway to energy transition (the REmap Case), energy efficiency would need to reduce TPES slightly below 2015 levels, and renewable energy would need to provide two-thirds of the energy supply TPES and the share of renewable and non-renewable energy under the Reference and REmap cases 5
  6. 6. Digitalization augments power sector transformation Enabling Infrastruc- ture Business Models Market regulation System Operation Electric Vehicles Storage Digitalization - IoT Platform business model Blockchain Aggregators- VPP Decentralized system and Distributed generation Massive expansion of interconnections Value complement- arities in VRE Electrification of end use sectors Encourage Flexibility, pricing that supports DSM/DSR RE Tech Artificial Intelligence 6
  7. 7. Renewable energy should be scaled up to meet power, heat and transport needs The share of electricity rises to 40% of TFEC in the REmap Case, and 85% of electricity generation is from renewable sources Use of renewable and fossil energy in electricity generation, buildings and industry, and transport 85% RE 58% RE 69% RE 7
  8. 8. Europe: Renewables options in 2030 30% EE Goal Increases RE share to 34% Green colour are biomass options – high end of the cost curve 8
  9. 9. Energy transition in the end use sectors • Strong growth of electromobility – 1.2 million EVs sold in 2017 • Heat pump sales in the residential sector have been increasing • New approaches to solar thermal (hybrid systems, storage) • Corporate sourcing, maximized residential self-consumption • Sector coupling and Power-to-X • Continued growth of biogas EV sales Liquid biofuelsThousands Biofuels have their own geopolitical sensitivities China emerging as largest EV market and producer Positive transition indicators in the end-use sector 9
  10. 10. Transforming energy demand in the transport sector The transport sector is dominated by fossil fuels and needs to undergo a profound transformation – biofuels sales x 9, EV sales x 100 A breakdown of final energy consumption in the transport sector by source 10
  11. 11. The use of electricity in buildings increases while the use of fossil fuels declines Modern renewable energy in the building sector needs to increase significantly. Up to three-quarters of energy consumption in buildings could be supplied by renewables. Electricity will supply almost 56% of Breakdown of final energy consumption in the building sector by source
  12. 12. New technologies empower the consumer  Thermostats, lighting and energy monitoring and controls are increasingly enabled with smart devices  Adding communication capabilities and remote controls to existing sensors and diagnostics can turn them into an energy management system  Artificial intelligence identifies patterns and controls the load, the same way humans would do IoT and smart houses and Artificial Intelligence IoT and AI enable demand side management, decreasing consumers’ costs by improving energy efficiency and preventing energy waste Photo source: https://www.centrica.com/ 12
  13. 13. District heating and cooling: an interesting opportunity • Nine countries assessed accounting for 40% of global DHC • 21 renewable energy DHC projects assessed • Assessment of effectiveness and cost efficiency • In 2014 only 5% of DHC was provided from renewables • This percentage could grow significantly to 24-73% for countries examined (for heating) • Biofuels and waste dominate today, with some geothermal, solar and use of waste heat (incl. heatpumps for upgrading) • Pipeline systems can store some heat/cold • Emerging seasonal storage opportunities eg for solar thermal (eg Denmark Dronninglund) • RE DHC investment should ramp up 10x to USD 20 bln/yr • Finland has special knowledge in this area 2017
  14. 14. So-called power-to-X and E-fuels can help in storing energy and enabling sector coupling  however conversion efficiency and cost pose challenges Industry sector – opportunity to decarbonize heavy industry - replace natural gas with hydrogen from renewable electricity in the process of direct reduction of iron ore, and for the production of ammonia and methanol This will depend on the availability of cheap renewable electricity Part-time production of hydrogen may be of interest in times of excess power generation Hydrogen from renewable power - An option for decarbonising industry @ 2-3 Uscents/kWh 14
  15. 15. Challenges to Sustainable Bioenergy Bioenergy is essential to sustainable development: • Largest form of renewable energy today • Only realistic renewable option for parts of transport, chemicals • Dispatchable and can be stored for “cold and dark winter weeks” Bioenergy faces serious challenges: • Economic competitiveness • Biofuel vs electricity for light transport in a time of low oil prices • Biogas vs liquefied petroleum gas for cooking in developing countries • Bioenergy vs fossil fuel, other renewables for power • Sustainable sourcing debate • Food vs fuel discussion • Environmental impacts incl. ILUC 15
  16. 16. Scale-up Tools & Strategies – IRENA work on bioenergy Bioenergy from Finnish Forests: Sustainable, efficient, modern use of wood (with VTT) Bioenergy Simulator to Help Choose High-Yield Crops Algorithm for wood yields as function of soil and climate Additional Work Proposed Scaling Up Sugarcane – Africa and Caribbean Scaling Up Wood in Southeast Europe Renewable Energy Approaches to Reducing Food Losses Country Advisory Services for Expanding Bioenergy Project Navigator Technical Concept Guidelines for Bioenergy Projects 16
  17. 17. Innovation Outlook: Thermal Energy Storage (TES) for RE Integration From a mapping exercise – 13 Innovative TES technologies are studied 17Source: IRENA (forthcoming) Innovation Outlook Thermal Energy Storage Seasonal Seasonal
  18. 18. Seven applications for TES identified to support RE integration in energy systems 18Source: IRENA (forthcoming) Innovation Outlook Thermal Energy Storage
  19. 19. Thank you! www.irena.org www.twitter.com/irena www.facebook.com/irena.org www.instagram.com/irenaimages www.flickr.com/photos/irenaimages www.youtube.com/user/irenaorg
  20. 20. The importance of fossil fuels is declining Under the REmap Case, both oil and coal demand decline significantly and continuously, and natural gas demand peaks around 2027. In 2050, natural gas is the largest source of fossil fuel (at 70% of current consumption) Fossil fuel use (left), 2015-2050; decline in fossil fuel use by sector - REmap Case relative to Reference Case 20

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