1.
Global Opportunities for Renewable
Energy Technologies and Energy
Transition Solutions
A ROADMAP TO
2050
Dolf Gielen, IRENA Director Innovation and Technology
Seminar How to Manage the seasonality in the renewable energy system during the cold and dark winter weeks
Aalto University, 26 April 2018

2.
Solar & Wind: LCOE/auction price evolution
overview -
Continued rapid cost reduction in the coming years
Source: IRENA
2
IRENA
costing
database
of 15000
large scale
RE power
projects
and 1.5
million
rooftop PV
systems
Covering
half of all
existing
and
planned
RE
capacity

3.
REmap – Roadmap for a Renewable Energy
future
» IRENA’s Global Renewable Energy Roadmap
» Shows feasible, cost-effective ways to increase renewable energy deployment in
world’s energy mix by 2030 and 2050 in line with SDG7
» Complemented by a socio-economic analysis framework
» Support the G20 in determining pathways for renewables deployment and
operationalising Paris Agreement with decarbonisation scenarios analysis
» Identifies concrete technology options for
countries and sectors
» Assessment of policy and investment implications
» In cooperation with 70 countries
» More than 40 publications and datasets
» 4 global studies
» 12 reports for the largest economies that
discuss transition strategies and frameworks
» Sectoral roadmaps
Newly released
April 2018
3

4.
Renewable energy and energy efficiency can provide
over 90% of the reduction in energy-related CO2
Annual energy-related emissions must be reduced by over 70% to bring temperature rise to
below the 2C goal – this will not happen by itself
Annual energy-related CO2 emissions and reductions, 2015-2050
4

5.
The global share of renewable energy in energy
supply would need to increase to two-thirds
To achieve a pathway to energy transition (the REmap Case), energy efficiency would need to reduce
TPES slightly below 2015 levels, and renewable energy would need to provide two-thirds of the energy
supply
TPES and the share of renewable and non-renewable energy under the Reference and
REmap cases
5

6.
Digitalization augments power sector transformation
Enabling
Infrastruc-
ture
Business
Models
Market
regulation
System
Operation
Electric Vehicles
Storage
Digitalization - IoT
Platform
business model
Blockchain
Aggregators- VPP
Decentralized system and
Distributed generation
Massive expansion
of interconnections
Value
complement-
arities in VRE
Electrification of
end use sectors
Encourage Flexibility,
pricing that supports
DSM/DSR RE
Tech
Artificial
Intelligence
6

7.
Renewable energy should be scaled up to meet
power, heat and transport needs
The share of electricity rises to 40% of TFEC in the REmap Case, and 85% of electricity generation is from
renewable sources
Use of renewable and fossil energy in electricity generation, buildings and industry, and
transport
85% RE
58% RE
69% RE
7

8.
Europe: Renewables options in 2030
30% EE Goal
Increases
RE share to
34%
Green colour are
biomass options –
high end of the cost
curve
8

9.
Energy transition in the end use
sectors
• Strong growth of electromobility – 1.2 million EVs sold in 2017
• Heat pump sales in the residential sector have been increasing
• New approaches to solar thermal (hybrid systems, storage)
• Corporate sourcing, maximized residential self-consumption
• Sector coupling and Power-to-X
• Continued growth of biogas
EV
sales
Liquid
biofuelsThousands
Biofuels have their
own geopolitical
sensitivities
China emerging as
largest EV market
and producer
Positive transition indicators in the end-use sector
9

10.
Transforming energy demand in the transport sector
The transport sector is dominated by fossil fuels and needs to undergo a profound transformation
–
biofuels sales x 9, EV sales x 100
A breakdown of final energy consumption in the transport sector by source
10

11.
The use of electricity in buildings increases while
the use of fossil fuels declines
Modern renewable energy in the building sector needs to increase
significantly. Up to three-quarters of energy consumption in buildings
could be supplied by renewables. Electricity will supply almost 56% of
Breakdown of final energy consumption in the building sector by source

12.
New technologies empower the consumer
 Thermostats, lighting and energy monitoring and
controls are increasingly enabled with smart devices
 Adding communication capabilities and remote
controls to existing sensors and diagnostics can
turn them into an energy management system
 Artificial intelligence identifies patterns and controls
the load, the same way humans would do
IoT and smart houses and Artificial Intelligence
IoT and AI enable demand side management, decreasing consumers’ costs by
improving energy efficiency and preventing energy waste
Photo source: https://www.centrica.com/
12

13.
District heating and cooling: an interesting opportunity
• Nine countries assessed accounting for 40% of global DHC
• 21 renewable energy DHC projects assessed
• Assessment of effectiveness and cost efficiency
• In 2014 only 5% of DHC was provided from renewables
• This percentage could grow significantly to 24-73% for
countries examined (for heating)
• Biofuels and waste dominate today, with some geothermal,
solar and use of waste heat (incl. heatpumps for upgrading)
• Pipeline systems can store some heat/cold
• Emerging seasonal storage opportunities eg for solar thermal
(eg Denmark Dronninglund)
• RE DHC investment should ramp up 10x to USD 20 bln/yr
• Finland has special knowledge in this area
2017

14.
So-called power-to-X and E-fuels can help in storing
energy and enabling sector coupling
 however conversion efficiency and cost pose
challenges
Industry sector – opportunity to decarbonize heavy
industry - replace natural gas with hydrogen from
renewable electricity in the process of direct reduction of
iron ore, and for the production of ammonia and
methanol
This will depend on the availability of cheap renewable
electricity
Part-time production of hydrogen may be of interest in
times of excess power generation
Hydrogen from renewable power - An option for
decarbonising industry @ 2-3 Uscents/kWh
14

15.
Challenges to Sustainable Bioenergy
Bioenergy is essential to sustainable development:
• Largest form of renewable energy today
• Only realistic renewable option for parts of transport, chemicals
• Dispatchable and can be stored for “cold and dark winter weeks”
Bioenergy faces serious challenges:
• Economic competitiveness
• Biofuel vs electricity for light transport in a time of low oil prices
• Biogas vs liquefied petroleum gas for cooking in developing
countries
• Bioenergy vs fossil fuel, other renewables for power
• Sustainable sourcing debate
• Food vs fuel discussion
• Environmental impacts incl. ILUC 15

16.
Scale-up Tools & Strategies – IRENA work on
bioenergy
Bioenergy from Finnish Forests:
Sustainable, efficient, modern use of wood (with VTT)
Bioenergy Simulator to Help Choose High-Yield Crops
Algorithm for wood yields as function of soil and climate
Additional Work Proposed
Scaling Up Sugarcane – Africa and Caribbean
Scaling Up Wood in Southeast Europe
Renewable Energy Approaches to Reducing Food Losses
Country Advisory Services for Expanding Bioenergy
Project Navigator
Technical Concept Guidelines for Bioenergy Projects 16

17.
Innovation Outlook: Thermal Energy Storage (TES) for RE
Integration
From a mapping exercise – 13 Innovative TES technologies are studied
17Source: IRENA (forthcoming) Innovation Outlook Thermal Energy Storage
Seasonal
Seasonal

18.
Seven applications for TES identified to support RE
integration in energy systems
18Source: IRENA (forthcoming) Innovation Outlook Thermal Energy Storage

19.
Thank you!
www.irena.org
www.twitter.com/irena
www.facebook.com/irena.org
www.instagram.com/irenaimages
www.flickr.com/photos/irenaimages
www.youtube.com/user/irenaorg

20.
The importance of fossil fuels is
declining
Under the REmap Case, both oil and coal demand decline significantly and continuously, and natural
gas demand peaks around 2027. In 2050, natural gas is the largest source of fossil fuel (at 70% of
current consumption)
Fossil fuel use (left), 2015-2050; decline in fossil fuel use by sector - REmap Case relative to
Reference Case
20