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Solving Problems using Current and
Future Reality Trees
Introductions
Laz Allen Suzanne Morrison
https://www.linkedin.com/in/suzannem
@SuzanneMorrison
https://www.linkedin.com/in...
Learning Objectives
• Introduction TOC Thinking Processes
• How to find root causes using Current Reality Trees
• How to v...
“Any improvement is a change, but
not every change is an
improvement”
Eli Goldratt
3 Questions
To solve a problem you need to ask 3 Questions
1. What to change?
2. What to change to?
3. How to change?
Frustrations are high
Current Reality Trees
(what tochange)
Undesirable Effects (UDEs)
An UDE is something that really exists, is negative on its own
merits and has direct and contin...
Examples of UDEs
“Employee morale is low”
“Attrition is increasing”
“We’re not getting our
products in front of the
custom...
Exercise – Undesirable Effects (UDEs)
• In groups, read the description of the “Team from Hell”.
• Using the postit notes ...
Current Reality Trees
Undesirable Effects
(UDEs)
Root Causes
Intermediate Effects
Current Reality Tree Example
CRT
Example
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=17BP9n6g1F0
Operation Cat Drop
Credit: Sustainably Illustrated
Exercise – Cause or Effect?
We’re going to revisit the “Team from Hell” example from earlier.
• For each postit note ask t...
Facilitation Tips
• Attendees
• Size of the group
• Blame
• The power of reading the tree aloud
• Tools
Exercise – build the CRT
We’re now going to build a current reality tree…
1. Choose a facilitator for your group
2. Start ...
Example Solution
Skyscanner Examples
Correlation v Cause and Effect
Correlation v Cause and Effect
Source - http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
Cynefin
Cynefin: Dave Snowden
Future Reality Trees
(whattochangeto)
Injections
“An injection is a new condition or action that does
not exist in the current reality. It is something you
must...
Injection too far up the tree
Future Reality Trees
Desirable Effects
Injections
Intermediate Effects
Negative Branches
New
Injection
Layers of Change
1. We don’t have a problem
2. I disagree with the problem
3. The problem is out of my control
4. Your sol...
Thinking Processes References
The Eli Goldratt Business Novels
The Logical Thinking Process (H. William Dettmer)
Rolling R...
Any
Questions?
Edinburgh • Glasgow • Singapore • Beijing • Miami • Barcelona • Shenzhen • Sofia •
Budapest
For all resources, go to:
bit....
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Skyscanner reality trees current reality trees future reality trees By Suzanne Morrison

You can’t predict the future, but you can shape it

How Skyscanner is using current and future reality trees from Theory of Constraints to grow
By Suzanne Morrison

Fpr more, visit https://medium.com/@skyscanner and https://www.skyscanner.net/mobile.html

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Skyscanner reality trees current reality trees future reality trees By Suzanne Morrison

  1. 1. Solving Problems using Current and Future Reality Trees
  2. 2. Introductions Laz Allen Suzanne Morrison https://www.linkedin.com/in/suzannem @SuzanneMorrison https://www.linkedin.com/in/lazallen @LazAllen Agile Coaches at Skyscanner
  3. 3. Learning Objectives • Introduction TOC Thinking Processes • How to find root causes using Current Reality Trees • How to validate solutions using Future Reality Trees • Examples, tips and lessons learned
  4. 4. “Any improvement is a change, but not every change is an improvement” Eli Goldratt
  5. 5. 3 Questions To solve a problem you need to ask 3 Questions 1. What to change? 2. What to change to? 3. How to change?
  6. 6. Frustrations are high
  7. 7. Current Reality Trees (what tochange)
  8. 8. Undesirable Effects (UDEs) An UDE is something that really exists, is negative on its own merits and has direct and continuing effect on the goal.
  9. 9. Examples of UDEs “Employee morale is low” “Attrition is increasing” “We’re not getting our products in front of the customer fast enough” “Decreasing profit” “We’re not hiring fast enough”
  10. 10. Exercise – Undesirable Effects (UDEs) • In groups, read the description of the “Team from Hell”. • Using the postit notes and sharpies, write down any undesirable effects that you see. • This is a brainstorm, so don’t analyse anything (yet)!
  11. 11. Current Reality Trees Undesirable Effects (UDEs) Root Causes Intermediate Effects
  12. 12. Current Reality Tree Example CRT Example
  13. 13. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=17BP9n6g1F0 Operation Cat Drop Credit: Sustainably Illustrated
  14. 14. Exercise – Cause or Effect? We’re going to revisit the “Team from Hell” example from earlier. • For each postit note ask the question “What does this cause?” • Put all the effects at the top and leave the causes underneath
  15. 15. Facilitation Tips • Attendees • Size of the group • Blame • The power of reading the tree aloud • Tools
  16. 16. Exercise – build the CRT We’re now going to build a current reality tree… 1. Choose a facilitator for your group 2. Start from the UDEs and work your way down 3. Ask “why?” to help you 4. Use the postit notes you already have or add some new ones 5. Once you’ve built the tree, practice reading a branch from top to bottom and from bottom to top.
  17. 17. Example Solution
  18. 18. Skyscanner Examples
  19. 19. Correlation v Cause and Effect
  20. 20. Correlation v Cause and Effect Source - http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
  21. 21. Cynefin Cynefin: Dave Snowden
  22. 22. Future Reality Trees (whattochangeto)
  23. 23. Injections “An injection is a new condition or action that does not exist in the current reality. It is something you must make happen in order for the future reality to unfold the way you want it to”
  24. 24. Injection too far up the tree
  25. 25. Future Reality Trees Desirable Effects Injections Intermediate Effects
  26. 26. Negative Branches New Injection
  27. 27. Layers of Change 1. We don’t have a problem 2. I disagree with the problem 3. The problem is out of my control 4. Your solution is not going to work 5. If we do this, bad things to happen… 6. We can’t do it because of… Current Reality Trees can help to overcome these layers Future Reality Trees can help to overcome these layers
  28. 28. Thinking Processes References The Eli Goldratt Business Novels The Logical Thinking Process (H. William Dettmer) Rolling Rocks Downhill (Clark Ching) Online Guide to Implementing TOC Useful blog on TOC and Lean TOC TV – online videos teaching TOC topics Nothing you ever do might make the slightest difference Goldratt.com
  29. 29. Any Questions?
  30. 30. Edinburgh • Glasgow • Singapore • Beijing • Miami • Barcelona • Shenzhen • Sofia • Budapest For all resources, go to: bit.ly/skyscannertrees

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