Internet Communications: A Look Ahead


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Jonathan Rosenberg, Skype's Chief Technology Strategist, presented at the 2010 PTC.

Published in: Technology, Business

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  • New year – new decade – opportunity for introspection and for looking forward. What have been industry’s successes so far?Voice: this has been our focus – and the industry has succeeded in delivering a narrowband voice experience everywhere. Yesterday also saw the beginnings of wideband voice. Skype led this – bringing wideband to all our 500M registered users. Others came along too. We’re seeing usage in other desktop apps and within enterprises too, but its far from ubiquiitous.Enterprise: VoIP has been a shining success here. XX% of new product sales into enterprise are voip and not TDM, install base is XX% voip, expecting to be XX% by year DDDD. Market leader Cisco is all IP. Cable: VoIP has made great inroads in cable – part of triple play, focused on cost savings. Invisible to users, but there are XX millions of US users with voip in the home from cable operators (not sure I can get number).Consumer Desktop: Huge usage of VoIP on the desktop by application providers. Skype again has led here – 520M users, 27.7billion S2S minutes Q309. Market here driven primarily by app providers – Skype, Google, Microsoft.Backhaul: The biggest usage of VoIP so far – inivisble to users, the glue between networks. One piece of evidence – <next slide>
  • Internet Communications: A Look Ahead

    1. 1. Internet Communications: A Look Ahead<br />Jonathan Rosenberg<br />Chief Technology Strategist<br />
    2. 2. Successes ofYesterday<br />Enterprise<br />
    3. 3. Successes ofYesterday<br />49%<br />Percentage of 2009 PBX line sales that are IP.<br />Enterprise<br />Source: Dell’Oro<br />
    4. 4. Successes ofYesterday<br />Enterprise<br />Cable<br />
    5. 5. Successes ofYesterday<br />16.5M<br />Number of US homes utilizing cable IP telephony<br />Enterprise<br />Cable<br />Source: MediaCensus<br />
    6. 6. Successes ofYesterday<br />Enterprise<br />Cable<br />ConsumerDesktop<br />
    7. 7. Successes ofYesterday<br />521M<br />Number of registered Skype Users at end of Q309<br />Enterprise<br />Cable<br />ConsumerDesktop<br />
    8. 8. Successes ofYesterday<br />41%<br />Y2Y growth in registered Skype users as of Q209<br />Enterprise<br />Cable<br />ConsumerDesktop<br />
    9. 9. Successes ofYesterday<br />12%<br />In 2009<br />Enterprise<br />8%<br />Percentage of ILD traffic worldwide over Skype in 2008<br />Cable<br />ConsumerDesktop<br />Source: Telegeography<br />
    10. 10. Successes ofYesterday<br />27.7B<br />S2S minutes inQ309<br />Enterprise<br />71%<br />IY2Y Increase from 2008<br />Cable<br />ConsumerDesktop<br />
    11. 11. Successes ofYesterday<br />Enterprise<br />Backhaul<br />Cable<br />ConsumerDesktop<br />
    12. 12. Opportunities of Tomorrow<br />Web<br />Video<br />Mobile<br />
    13. 13. Video – Why Now?<br />
    14. 14. Video – Why Now?<br />
    15. 15. Video – Why Now?<br />
    16. 16. Video – Why Now?<br />
    17. 17. placeholder graphic<br />34%<br />of Skype to Skype calls<br />Include Video<br />
    18. 18.
    19. 19. 38%<br />in 2013<br />15%<br />of the mobile phones sold worldwide in 2008 were smartphones<br />Source: Informa Telecoms & Media, 2009<br />
    20. 20. 100M<br />LTE subscribers by 2014<br />Source: Juniper Research<br />
    21. 21. 90%<br />in 2014<br />45%<br />WiFi attach rate in smartphones in 2009 <br />Source: ABI Research<br />
    22. 22. Mobile VoIP: A Perfect Storm<br />Wifi<br />MobileVoIP<br />Smartphones<br />App Stores<br />3g/4g<br />
    23. 23. Skype partnership with Hutchison 3<br />3 Skypephone<br /><ul><li>500K units sold, one of the most popular pre-pay handsets for 3
    24. 24. 20% higher margin than average PAYG user on 3
    25. 25. 79% of customers are new to 3
    26. 26. 500M+ free Skype-to-Skype minutes on the 3 UK network since November 2006
    27. 27. 1.7M free Skype-to-Skype minutes carried over 3 UK's network each day in August 2009
    28. 28. 150M+ free Skype conversations on the 3 UK network since November 2006 </li></li></ul><li>The Line Between the Web and Real-Time Communications is Fading<br />Social Networking = Person to Person<br />IM in the Browser<br />Wave and Real-Time Text<br />Voice and Video in HTML5<br />Web Apps as Interactive as Desktop<br />
    29. 29. The Web of Tomorrow will Have a Voice<br />Voice and Video Seamlessly Integrated<br />Web Applications Become Collaborative<br />“Voice Connect” bridges communications into 3rd party apps<br />The Browser is the Universal Client<br />