Sitra’s Megatrends 2020 list provides an overview of the issues we should focus on in the coming years. In Sitra’s Megatrends 2020 update, we highlight five trends and the links and tensions between them: 1) Ecological reconstruction is a matter of urgency 2) Relational power is strengthening 3) The population is ageing and becoming increasingly diverse 4) The economy is seeking direction 5) Technology is becoming embedded in everything

1. MEGA
TRENDS

2. THE BIG PICTURE
+
AND TENSIONS

3. Ecological
reconstruction is a
matter of urgency

4. Climate warming
Extreme weather phenomena
Loss of biodiversity
Overconsumption of
resources
Soil degradation
More waste
Ecological
reconstruction
is a matter of
urgency
TRENDS

5. Ecological
reconstruction
is a matter of
urgency
TENSIONSENVIRONMENTAL AWARENESS
VS ENVIRONMENTAL ACTION
BELITTLING
VS ACTIVISM
FAIR
VS UNEQUAL TRANSITION TO A
SUSTAINABLE
SOCIETY

6. How successful will we be
in achieving quick and fair
ecological
reconstruction?
Do we see
nature as a
resource or as
having intrinsic
value?
What could
sustainable
lifestyles look
like in practice?
What is
Finland’s role in
the global
change?

7. The environmental
crisis challenges
culture to change

8. Relational power is
strengthening

9. TRENDSFrom a multipolar world to a
poly-nodal world
Admiration of strong leaders
Rise of populism
Rise of new movements
Confusion is power
Relational power
is strengthening

10. CENTRALISED DECISIONS
VSBROAD ENGAGEMENT
FREEDOM OF SPEECH
VS INFLUENCE THROUGH
INFORMATION
GLOBAL INSTITUTIONS VS
POLY-NODAL WORLD
Relational power
is strengthening
TENSIONS

11. How can we achieve the
renewal of democracy and
make big changes?
How do we strengthen
global decision-making
in a poly-nodal world?
How can we reduce
polarisation and
confusion?
How do we ensure
broader engagement
and quick decisions?

12. Reducing confusion and
taking quick action go
hand in hand!

13. The population is
ageing and
diversifying

14. TRENDSLonger life expectancy and
an ageing population
Declining birth rate
Concentration of the
population
Tribalisation
The population is
ageing and
diversifying

15. DEPENDENCY RATIO
VS MAINTAINING THE
WELFARE STATE
CITIES
VS RURAL AREAS
VS MULTI-LOCALITY
NETWORKS
VS BUBBLES
The population is
ageing and
diversifying
TENSIONS

16. How can we prevent
inequality while building
an ecologically
sustainable society?
How will we ensure the
quality and adequacy of
society’s services?
Will we find a
new story for
what it means to
be Finnish?
How will the tensions
created by polarisation
develop, and can we let
go of them?

17. Bringing shades of
grey into
“us vs them”
thinking

18. The economy
is seeking
direction

19. TRENDSConcentration of wealth
Circular economy
Changing structures of work
Continuous development of
competence
The economy is
seeking direction

20. PLATFORM MONOPOLIES
VS HUMAN-DRIVEN DATA
ECONOMY
CONSUMPTION CULTURE
VS ENOUGH IS ENOUGH
SUSTAINABLE
VS RESTORATIVE ECONOMYThe economy is
seeking direction
TENSIONS

21. How do we want to
reshape our
economic system?
How do we ensure the
fair distribution of
wealth and income for
all?
What will be the future
shape of working life?
How will people’s
consumption habits
change?

22. Working to build a
restorative economy

23. Technology is
becoming
embedded in
everything

24. TRENDSTechnology transforms operating
methods
AI applications permeate society
Programmed organisms in
production
Falling cost of renewable energy
Emphasis on understanding
technology
Technology is
becoming
embedded in
everything

25. CO-OPERATION
VS BATTLE FOR AI
WIDESPREAD USE OF
TECHNOLOGY
VS INEQUALITY
TECHNOLOGY AS AN
OPPORTUNITY
VS THREAT
TENSIONS
Technology is
becoming
embedded in
everything

26. Who exercises power
over the future? That
is, who gets to define
the future scenarios?
How do we prevent the
growth of inequality
brought about by
technology?
To what extent does
technology promote
ecological
reconstruction and to
what extent does
technology hinder it?
Who gets to decide on
technology?

27. Technology affects us,
but how do we affect
technology?

28. Ecological
reconstruction
is a matter of
urgency
Relational power
is strengthening
Technology is
becoming
embedded in
everything
The economy is
seeking direction
The population is
ageing and
diversifying
New tribes
and
communities
Centralised decisions or broad engagement?
Are solutions opportunities or threats?
Power over the future
Sustainability gap
The environment as a resource
or improving the state of the
environment?
Fair or unequal transition?
Change in
work and
consumption

29. meta-
trends
The post-normal
era
Emotions
at play
Together
separately

30. Megatrends can be used
in scenario analysis,
envisioning or more
broadly as a learning
tool.
How?

31. Five tips for using the megatrends
Avoid “all or nothing” thinking
Challenge assumptions and be open to different
opinions
Complement the megatrends with weak signals
Examine the trends at the individual level
Don’t forget hope!
1
2
3
4
5

32. What kind of
future do you
want to build?
Catch!