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Megatrends 2017

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In honour of Finland's centenary in 2017, we want to highlight the megatrends affecting work, democracy and inclusion, and growth and progress that are relevant to the Nordic model. All of these are themes specifically at the core of the Nordic model's future. Find out more at www.sitra.fi/megatrends

Published in: Government & Nonprofit
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Megatrends 2017

  1. 1. At the time of the centenary of the Finnish independence, the world is in turmoil. What does tomorrow look like in the North?
  2. 2. The direction of the Nordic model is determined by our reaction to the next three trends.
  3. 3. THE RIDDLE OF WORK AND INCOME
  4. 4. The world of work is at the edge of the unknown: automation, robotisation, artificial intelligence and digital platforms are changing all areas of work – including traditional industrial work, white-collar jobs and healthcare.
  5. 5. In the 19th century, income growth stagnated for 50 years even as productivity grew. It is possible that today’s generation could face a similar experience. In the life of an individual, such a period of stagnation almost equates to their entire working life.
  6. 6. I N 2 0 4 0 What might your working day be like in a world where you feel you are leading a good life?
  7. 7. It is likely we know as little about the future as someone who lived in the 19th century.
  8. 8. It is possible that: Work changes but there is plenty of it for all. Only a few people have work and even fewer benefit from its results. OR
  9. 9. Therefore, it is now important to do the following:
  10. 10. Ease the struggles of those who are caught in the middle of work’s paradigm shift. Recognise that future income distribution is a political hot topic already today. Realise that lifelong learning will become a necessity. Ask ourselves whether we aim for less or more equality in our societies. It is possible that technology will enable both. Remember that work can be both known and unknown in the future. We can imagine how a robot can help a nurse, but what does an algorithmatician do?
  11. 11. 10 initiatives of work and income N E XTE RA .G L O BAL
  12. 12. In the 19th century, income growth stagnated for 50 years even as productivity grew. It is possible that today’s generation could face a similar experience. In the life of an individual, such a period of stagnation almost equates to their entire working life. It is likely we know as little about the future as someone who lived in the 19th century. THE RIDDLE OF WORK AND INCOME The world of work is at the edge of the unknown: automation, robotisation, artificial intelligence and digital platforms are changing all areas of work – including traditional industrial work, white-collar jobs and healthcare. Work changes but there is plenty of it for all. OR Now it’s important to do the following. Ease the struggles of those who are caught in the middle of work’s paradigm shift. 10 initiatives of work and income N E X T E R A . G L O B A L In 2040: What might your working day be like in a world where you feel you are leading a good life? It is possible that: Only a few people have work and even fewer benefit from its results. Recognise that future income distribution is a political hot topic already today. Realise that lifelong learning will become a necessity. Ask ourselves whether we aim for less or more equality in our societies. It is possible that technology will enable both. Remember that work can be both known and unknown in the future. We can imagine how a robot can help a nurse, but what does an algorithmatician do?
  13. 13. REPRECENTATIVE DEMOCRACY FATIGUED
  14. 14. In order to work, democracy needs to be strengthened, must find new ways of working and has to generate greater inclusion.
  15. 15. In the 19th century Finland the laws were written by classes. In the 20th century the industrial revolution led to the birth of representative democracy and the political map as we know it today. What are the movements that define the political mobilisation of the 21st century?
  16. 16. The rapid development of technology and globalisation can have a major disruptive influence on the representative democratic system.
  17. 17. Everything is connected! Duh.
  18. 18. Well-being, institutions, trust, the economy, equality…
  19. 19. When looking at how democracy is doing, we must have a look at the whole of society
  20. 20. It is possible: That the power concentrates in the hands of the few and for exclusion and disruption to increase. Transparency, inclusion and innovativeness to flourish in democracies. OR
  21. 21. Therefore, now it is important that:
  22. 22. As democracies everywhere struggle with inequality and trust, we consider what the future for Finland is: common or divided? We demand both global decision-making and stronger local democracy. Decision-makers and scientists unite to become problem solvers. Those involved with politics and democracy understand technology better.
  23. 23. 12 initiatives to strengthen democracy N E XTE RA .G L O BAL
  24. 24. Transparency, inclusion and innovativeness to flourish in democracies. That the power concentrates in the hands of the few and for exclusion and disruption to increase. In the 19th century Finland the laws were written by classes. In the 20th century the industrial revolution led to the birth of representative democracy and the political map as we know it today. What are the movements that define the political mobilisation of the 21st century? Everything is connected! Well-being, institutions, trust, the economy… When looking at how democracy is doing, we must have a look at the whole of society REPRESENTATIVE DEMOCRACY FATIGUED In order to work, democracy needs to be strengthened, must find new ways of working and has to generate greater inclusion. OR Therefore, now it is important that: As democracies everywhere struggle with inequality and trust, we consider what the future for Finland is: common or divided? 12 initiatives to strengthen democracy N E X T E R A . G L O B A L It is possible: We demand both global decision-making and stronger local democracy. Decision-makers and scientists unite to become problem solvers. Those involved with politics and democracy understand technology better. The rapid development of technology and globalisation can have a major disruptive influence on the representative democratic system.
  25. 25. THE ECONOMY AT A CROSSROADS
  26. 26. A long period of economic stagnation is finally coming to an end. However, there are a lot of unknown factors related to this. Economic growth based on overconsumption of natural resources is not sustainable.
  27. 27. What are we aiming at in the end: economic growth or well-being?
  28. 28. We seek growth by using all the means available and end up ruining our planet in the long run – preconditions for well-being will be lost sooner or later. Well-being will become the most important goal for public policies and the natural world will revive even if the economy does not manage to grow. We manage to decouple economic growth from emissions and overuse of natural resources, and well- being increases even faster than economic growth. It is possible that: We will not find a way out of this stagnation and the old ways of doing things. We wither away. OR
  29. 29. Now it is important to do the following:
  30. 30. Know how to explore and combine a wide range of information, data and knowledge which will help us to reach our goals. Get from “talk to walk” with the circular economy. Understand that the economy defines the world in light of the current trust and value systems. Change our values as the world changes – and be true to them. The economy will follow.
  31. 31. Look out for a publication on the topic out on 6 June 2017 N E XTE RA .G L O BAL
  32. 32. We seek growth by using all the means available and end up ruining our planet in the long run – preconditions for well-being will be lost sooner or later. We manage to decouple economic growth from emissions and overuse of natural resources, and well-being increases even faster than economic growth. What are we aiming at in the end: economic growth or well- being? THE ECONOMY AT A CROSSROADS A long period of economic stagnation is finally coming to an end. However, there are a lot of unknown factors related to this. Economic growth based on overconsumption of natural resources is not sustainable. Now it is important to do the following Know how to explore and combine a wide range of information, data and knowledge which will help us to reach our goals. Look out for a publication on the topic out on 6 June 2017 N E X T E R A . G L O B A L Get from “talk to walk” with the circular economy. Understand that the economy defines the world in light of the current trust and value systems. It is possible that: We will not find a way out of this stagnation and the old ways of doing things. We wither away. Well-being will become the most important goal for public policies and the natural world will revive even if the economy does not manage to grow. OR OR Change our values as the world changes – and be true to them. The economy will follow.
  33. 33. sitra.fi/megatrends | nextera.global @sitrafund

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