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Megatrends 2016 by Sitra

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What are the megatrends that affect our future? How will our lives change as a result of the need for ecological sustainability, intensifying globalisation and technological development? Find out more at www.sitra.fi/megatrends

Published in: Government & Nonprofit
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Megatrends 2016 by Sitra

  1. 1. Megatrends 2016 Sustainability crisis now! Global interdependency with growing tensions Technology changes everything
  2. 2. Technology changes everything Virtualisation, digitalisation, artificial intelligence (AI), instrumentalisation of everything, robotisation, nanomaterials, biotechnology, pharmacology, energy technology, global ICT structures, global crowd platforms, blockchain technology "Will humankind change more in the next 30 years than in the past 300?" WHO HOLDS THE FUTURE VISION? What kind of society are we building? Technology establishment: Humans will become a multiplanetary species The mystery of death can be solved AI is already here Human and machine can be combined Virtual reality changes the game WHO OWNS THE FUTURE? Where it currently hurts? Work Media + other side effects This challenges our capability to renew our thinking But also offers great opportunities! ALL! Human, social, economic aspects… IMPACTS Polarisa tion New organisations, platforms and identities Technology as an enabler of sustainable well-being Importance of ethics Return of humanism and human capabilities The new generation will find its ways The new deal of the economy and the sharing economy Wider definition of well-being Ageing population: young people can’t solve the future on their own Everyone must take action
  3. 3. Technology changes everything The pace of technological development is extremely fast and affects all aspects of human life – not just economic and social aspects but also the nature of human being as species. This is a result of the development of artificial intelligence, robotisation and the potential of genetic, medical and biological instrumentation and other similar new technologies. • The question will not be what the machines can do but what they should do. • We should all take part in this conversation that is currently mainly reserved for technology visionaries. The question is: What kind of society we want to build with the help of technology? • The debates surrounding technology have been about work: possibilities for proper income, how society is organised around work, what is the meaning of work for identity and which activities could be counted as meaningful work. Basic income is an integral part of this debate. • The demography of Western countries challenges us to think more closely about the renewal mechanisms of ageing societies. This touches on sustainable well being. If machines can take care of the work that we now spend our time on, it could help us concentrate on things that so far only humans can do, like creativity, interaction, care, empathy and intuition. • To become mainstream, sustainable lifestyles or adopting new technologies will need to be adopted also by older generations. The youth is becoming a minority. Would you like to know more from Sitra on the topic? We recommend: Technology as an Enabler of Sustainable Well-being (2015) by Risto Linturi http://www.sitra.fi/en/julkaisu/2015/technology- enabler-sustainable-well-being-modern-society Megatrends 2016 (Our background memo in Finnish) www.sitra.fi/megatrends
  4. 4. Sustainability crisis now! Global interdependency Technology changes everything
  5. 5. The rise of the geo-economy Globalisation, world trade and power politics become even more intertwined New players, initatives and goals + tensions and unpredictable factors "The language is trade, the logic is war" New alliances, goals and global power play Unpredictable global environment USA, China, EU WINNERS International organisations CHALLENGE WHAT NOW? Finland has been the biggest winner in globalisation’s last phase Focus both on global and local We must assume diversity Cities hold the keys to wicked problems Resilience and ways to navigate in an unpredictable, complex environment Multilateral world has served Finland well We need to come to terms with this new world! Where does the EU belong in the future? Momentum to rise or fall. + the rise of those who can play the game and define their future Global interdependency
  6. 6. Global interdependency Globalisation, world trade and power politics are becoming even more intertwined. We are learning to adjust to the planetary boundaries instead of borders of nation states. This can also be felt in the tone of global politics. The World Economic Forum (WEF) uses the term geo-economics to refer to this close link between trade and power politics: ”The language is trade but the logic is war.” • New alliances and goals around the globe will shift the old power paradigms. In this environment those who are able to define their own goals and future seem to gain power: the USA, China and the EU, according to WEF. • The future of the EU is a focal point for the whole of Europe and for Finland. The union is vital while at the same time is challenged politically from within. • The global environment is difficult to navigate and many surprise factors can quickly change the game. Terrorism, Russia’s policies, oil prices, surprises in the US presidential election and climate change are all factors of an environment that constantly produces unforeseeable developments. • One big question for the near future is that of the Middle East and the growing instability in the region. The continuation and escalation of conflict in the region is a troublesome scenario which may have long-term consequences for the whole world. • This global environment has been a challenge for international organisations in the field of politics. However, climate has acted as a counter-balancer for politics. The Paris agreement at COP21 in 2015 is the most significant agreement for 25 years. • Finland has been the biggest winner of the last phase of globalisation, between 1990 and 2011, according to Bertelsmann Stiftung. In addition, the multilateral world and active participation in a global arena has made Finland’s influence greater than its size would merit. What will be the direction from now on? We need to adapt to the new unpredictable environment and find ways to manage complexity. Would you like to find out more from Sitra on the topic? We recommend: Aasia haastaa valtio- ja demokratiakäsityksemme (2015) by Teppo Turkki http://www.sitra.fi/julkaisu/2015/aasia-haastaa-valtio-ja- demokratiakasitystamme-uudistumaan Megatrends 2016 (Our background memo in Finnish) www.sitra.fi/megatrends
  7. 7. Sustainability crisis now! Global interdependency Technology changes everything
  8. 8. Solutions: technology + people New mindset about the planet, economy and well-being 1 Energy revolution: renewables paving their way, fossils in decline In the air… The biggest challenge of our time Technology De-coupling of economic growth and the use of natural resources €1500 billion market for cleantech solutions 2020 Is this trend an opportunity for humankind to work together? The solutions are already in our hands! 2 The potential of the circular economy Smart services and products finding markets 3 Smart seamless traffic 4 Cities are the key to solving wicked problems: new local solutions with the help of technology 5 But even the best solution or technology needs people to work Global warming and resource scarcity Dramatic decrease of natural resources and climate change are challenges that will define the future. We have to act now. A 4-6 °C increase in temperature would be catastrophic ! People Sustainability crisis now!
  9. 9. Sustainability crisis now! Our actions now define the future. We are facing the biggest challenge of our time as we have to de-couple economic growth from emissions and the overuse of natural resources. This means a completely new mind-set on the economy, consumption, technology and well-being. • However, it seems that many solutions are now coming to the fore; the energy revolution, the circular economy, smart services and products and smart seamless transport. Technological development is making great strides. • Megacities and urbanisation can also be crucial. In 2050 almost 70% of the world’s population will live in cities. The solutions for traffic, housing and governance in urban areas will define the scale of sustainability for the whole world. Also, new local solutions might become more available in the future. Underground farming and self-sustained energy production are interesting examples. • But as important as technology is, it needs people to work. Changing mind-sets at all levels is a difficult task. Issues relating to sustainability are also extremely complex and include many different stakeholders. Therefore, sustainability and behavioural change often require multidisciplinary approaches. • The good news is that the solutions are already in our hands in many ways. Cleantech solutions are expected to be worth 1500 billion euros by 2020 in the field of urban infrastructure. The transport and mobility cleantech markets are likely to grow rapidly. • Smart waste and water systems also offer big opportunities. The circular economy creates closed loops for material use combining technology into them. The biggest opportunities in the circular economy are in the new business models based on access, renewability and services. • The world could cut annual greenhouse gas emissions by about 12 gigatonnes by 2030 using only established and proven climate solutions. Would you like to know more from Sitra on the topic? We recommend: Green to Scale (2015) https://www.sitra.fi/en/julkaisu/2015/green-scale Benefits of Carbon Neutrality in the Rapidly Changin Business Environment (2015) https://www.sitra.fi/en/julkaisu/2015/benefits- carbon-neutrality-rapidly-changing-business Megatrends 2016 (Our background memo in Finnish) www.sitra.fi/megatrends
  10. 10. Sustainability crisis now! Global interdependency Technology changes everything Megatrends 2016

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