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Climate Change Cause & Effects

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In preparation for the Designing Climate Action workshop at New York Climate Week 2015, we explore the causes and effects of climate change. Learn more about the upcoming Designing Climate Action event at: http://www.climateweeknyc.org/events/designing-climate-action

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Climate Change Cause & Effects

  1. 1. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 THE DEBATE OVER CLIMATE CHANGE IS NOT OVER Class 2 | September 17, 2015
  2. 2. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 THE CLIMATE IS NOT A DEBATE TOPIC 2 5:00 Your Media Bubble 5:20 Science Lab: Climate Change Cause & Effect 6:20 Activity (and break): Climate Influencer Debate 7:30 Homework: Designing Climate Action Event & Teams 7:50 Fin.
  3. 3. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 MEDIA BUBBLES Truthiness Climate filter DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015
  4. 4. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 THIS WEEK’S HOMEWORK 4 “It’s not information overload. It’s filter failure” - Clay Shirky INDIVIDUAL ASSIGNMENT | Design your own media bubble, to effectively filter for the climate change conversation; Infuse yourself with both optimistic & pessimistic views (start with the video & readings) • Create: Design your media bubble • Document: Document the best sources you found, and post to Google docs • Demo: Be prepared to give a demo of your media bubble in class
  5. 5. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 SPEAKING YOUR TRUTHINESS 5 Methods Best Practices Examples
  6. 6. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 CAUSE & EFFECT Increasing severity Disinformation Obfuscation and confusion DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015
  7. 7. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 THIS IS NOT A TEST: SYSTEMS THINKING RECAP 7 How great were Judy and Souvik as your teachers!! STOCKS FLOWS FEEDBACK LOOPS LEVERAGE POINTS (SUPER) WICKED PROBLEMS GO!
  8. 8. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 WICKED PROBLEMS 8 “WICKED PROBLEMS” HAVE NO SOLUTION, YOU CAN ONLY MOVE THE NEEDLE. • There is no definitive formulation of a wicked problem • Every wicked problem is essentially unique • Every wicked problem can be considered to be a symptom of another problem - SOURCE: Rittel & Weber, Dilemmas in a General Theory of Planning. 1973.
  9. 9. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 SUPER WICKED PROBLEMS 9 “SUPER WICKED PROBLEMS” SUCH AS CLIMATE CHANGE ARE CHARACTERIZED BY FOUR ADDITIONAL FEATURES: • Time is running out; • The central authority needed to address it is weak or non-existent; • Those who cause the problem also seek to create a solution; and • Hyperbolic discounting occurs that pushes responses irrationally into the future - SOURCE: Environment.research.yale.edu
  10. 10. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 10 THE CARBON CYCLE
  11. 11. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 11 THE CARBON CYCLE: THIS IS WHY WE’RE HOT
  12. 12. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 12 2014: EARTH’S WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD (SINCE 1830’S)
  13. 13. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 AND THE CLIMATE HAS INTERTIA 13 CLIMATE INTERTIA: The climate changes slowly. The amount of GHGs which we’ve forced into the atmosphere is enough to increase warming by an additional .6 degrees C.
  14. 14. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 CAUSES OF CLIMATE CHANGE The anthropocene DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015
  15. 15. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 WHO’S TO BLAME? IT’S US (HUMANS) 15 - SOURCE: Smithsonian Magazine
  16. 16. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 WE’RE MESSING WITH OUR CARBON SOURCES & SINKS 16 Greenhouse gasses are released & recaptured from the atmosphere in two ways: Carbon Sources (or forcings) & Carbon Sinks (or reservoirs). SOURCE (FORCING): A source emits more carbon/GHGs than it absorbs. Main sources are from fossil fuel combustion. Others include landfills and bovine animals. SINK (RESERVOIRS): A sink absorbs more carbon/GHGs than it gives off. The largest carbon sink is the ocean. Other major sources include soil, forests and other biota.
  17. 17. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 THE DREAM OF THE (18)90’S IS ALIVE IN THE U.S. The industrial age gave birth to the modern economy IN 1896, SCIENTISTS DISCOVERED THE “GREENHOUSE EFFECT” …and its link to industrial age coal burning
  18. 18. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 THE MAJORITY OF GLOBAL EMISSIONS ARE DRIVEN BY FOSSIL FUEL COMBUSTION 18 World GHG Emissions Flow Chart, 2010 (Total Emissions: 48,629 MtCO2e)
  19. 19. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 AS OF 2011 WE’VE BURNED 52% OF OUR CARBON BUDGET 19 “Human activities need to be limited to 1 trillion tonnes C (1000 PgC) since the beginning of the industrial revolution if we are to have a likely chance of limiting warming to 2°C. This is our ’carbon budget’” – Source: The IPCC The same concept as a checking account. When we’ve spent it all, there’s no more money (and the planet’s overdraft fees will be much more significant than a bank’s small charges for bounced checks). – Source: The World Resources Institute
  20. 20. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 AND GLOBAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION IS INCREASING 20 - Google, The World Resources Institute 5.5 M 12.7 M (metrictons)ofoilequivalent(ktoe)
  21. 21. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 WHAT’S DRIVING THESE SHIFTS: POPULATION? GDP? Global Population Global GDP (million chained International Dollars, 2005, adjusted for inflation) 3B 44.5 M 7B 90M Emissions have tracked population growth Emissions per Capita Emissions Intensity GDP growth has outpaced emissions growth 6.3 486 5.9 693 MtCO2e/Mil. Intl. $ 1990-2011 Per Capita tCO2e 1990-2011 - Google, The World Resources Institute
  22. 22. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 BUT THE BURDEN OF RESPONSIBILITY IS SHIFTING 22 - Source: The World Resources Institute Cumulative GHG Emissions 1990-2011 (% of World Total) Cumulative GHG Emissions 1850-2011 (% of World Total)
  23. 23. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 THE U.S. IS IN THEIR OWN LEAGUE ON CO2 EMISSIONS 23 - Google, The World Resources Institute
  24. 24. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 IN TEN YEARS BEIJING’S PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE QUADROUPLED 24 - Source: The World Resources Institute
  25. 25. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 THIS HAS CAUSED SOME KERFUFFLE 25
  26. 26. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 WHICH SECTORS ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MOST GLOBAL EMISSIONS? 26 - The Environmental Protection Agency Industry Agriculture Commercial Buildings Transportation Residential Buildings Forestry Waste & Wastewater Energy Supply (Electricity and Heat)
  27. 27. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 GLOBAL ECONOMIC SECTORS DRIVING EMISSIONS 27 - The Environmental Protection Agency 14% 8% 19% 13% 26% 17% Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector (2007) Agriculture Residential & Commercial Industry Transportation Energy Forestry
  28. 28. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 WHICH SECTORS ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MOST EMISSIONS IN THE US? 28 - The Environmental Protection Agency Industry Agriculture Commercial Sector Transportation Residential Sector
  29. 29. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 U.S. ECONOMIC SECTORS DRIVING EMISSIONS 29 - The Environmental Protection Agency 9% 12% 21% 27% 31% U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Economic Sector (2013) Agriculture Residential & Commercial Industry Transportation Electricity U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions By Economic Sector, 1990-2013 (U.S. Emissions have decreased 5% since 2005)
  30. 30. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 BUT THIS PICTURE SHIFTS WHEN DISTRIBUTING ELECTRICITY TO THE POINT OF DEMAND 30 - The Environmental Protection Agency 10% 34% 29% 27% U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector With Electricity Distributed (1990 - 2013) 9% 12% 21% 27% 31% U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Economic Sector (2013) Agriculture Residential & Commercial Industry Transportation Electricity
  31. 31. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 THE U.S. GRID COMES FROM NONRENEWABLE SOURCES 31 - Energy Information Administration 7% 39% 27% 19% 6% 1% U.S. Electricity Generation Energy Sources (2014) Other Renewables Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Hydropower Petroleum 24% 6% 6%63% Other Renewables (2014) Biomass Geothermal Solar Wind But the % of renewables in increasing over time.
  32. 32. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 MEGA FORCES UNDERLYING THIS CHALLENGE 32 RESOURCE AVAILABILITY POPULATION AFFLUENCE (GDP) AWARENESS POLITICS SOCIETY CLIMATE INTERTIA
  33. 33. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 NEXT WEEK 33 TURING THIS INTO AN OPPORTUNITY FOR POSITIVE GLOBAL CHANGE Mitigation! Technological solutions, behavior change, treaties.
  34. 34. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE Temperature increases > Sea level rise Severe weather Habitat loss DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015
  35. 35. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 35 BUT ISN’T BEING HOT AWESOME?
  36. 36. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 OR OTHER ANIMALS. OR PLANTS. OR HUMANS. 36 NOT IF YOU’RE THIS GUY.
  37. 37. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 LET’S PUT THINGS IN HUMAN TERMS 37 CLIMATE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS CLIMATE SOCIAL/HEALTH EFFECTS CLIMATE ECONOMIC EFFECTS SOME EFFECTS WE’RE MORE CERTAIN OF THAN OTHERS
  38. 38. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 EFFECTS ARE NOT FELT EQUALLY 38 Climate Change vulnerability index, 2011 (Yale)
  39. 39. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 GHG FORCINGS ARE TURNING INTO RUNAWAY FEEDBACKS 39 Feedbacks: Can either amplify or diminish the effect of forcings. • Ice albedo • Ocean acificiation FEEDBACK: Some feedbacks we’re more certain of than others. POSITIVE FEEDBACK: A feedback that increases initial warming/temperature. NEGATIVE FEEDBACK: A feedback that reduces initial warming/temperature.
  40. 40. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 THIS LEADS TO VARIABILITY IN PROJECTIONS 40 WE’RE ARGUING ABOUT THE DEGREE OF SEVERITY
  41. 41. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 UNTENDED CONSEQUENCES & TIPPING POINTS 41 Tipping point: a critical threshold at which the future state of a system can be qualitatively altered by a small change in forcing. • Ocean circulation • Ice/glacial loss • Rapid methane release Policy-relevant tipping elements: those that could be forced past a tipping point this century by human activities.
  42. 42. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 42 WHEN THE TEMPERATURE INCREASES > Causes oceans to expand (water absorbs more heat!) CLIMATE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
  43. 43. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 43 WHEN THE TEMPERATURE INCREASES > Leads to more severe storms (hot air holds more moisture, hot water more heat) CLIMATE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
  44. 44. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 44 WHEN THE TEMPERATURE INCREASES > Causes glaciers to melt > Causes feedback “albedo effect” > When glaciers are on land, causes sea level rise CLIMATE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
  45. 45. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 45 WHEN THE TEMPERATURE INCREASES > Causes permafrost to melt > Causes release of methane emissions (feedback) CLIMATE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
  46. 46. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 46 WHEN THE TEMPERATURE INCREASES > Intensifies droughts (hot air absorbs more moisture from the land) CLIMATE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
  47. 47. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 47 WHEN THERE’S MORE CARBON IN THE ATMOSPHERE > Causes ocean acidification > Causes coral bleaching > Causes reef food chain collapse CLIMATE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
  48. 48. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 48 WHEN CLIMATE PATTERNS CHANGE > Causes habitat loss > Causes species extinction CLIMATE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
  49. 49. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 49 WHEN SEA LEVELS RISE > Causes floods > Hundreds of millions of people live in low-lying areas prone to floods CLIMATE SOCIAL/HEALTH EFFECTS
  50. 50. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 50 WHERE FLOODS/DROUGHT OCCUR > Causes climate refugees to flee CLIMATE SOCIAL/HEALTH EFFECTS
  51. 51. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 51 FOSSIL FUELS COMBUSION CAUSES CLIMATE CHANGE > Co-pollutants are also released (black carbon), causing respiratory illness CLIMATE SOCIAL/HEALTH EFFECTS
  52. 52. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 52 CLIMATE SOCIAL/HEALTH EFFECTS
  53. 53. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 53 WHEN DROUGHTS OCCUR > Contributes to global conflict > The war in Syria has been partially attributed to climate change CLIMATE SOCIAL/HEALTH EFFECTS
  54. 54. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 54 CLIMATE ECONOMIC EFFECTS WHEN SEVERE STORMS OCCUR > Causes economic activity loss > Causes costly damages > Hurricane Sandy caused $38 Billion worth of damage
  55. 55. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 55 CLIMATE ECONOMIC EFFECTS WHEN DROUGHTS OCCUR > Causes economic activity loss
  56. 56. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 NEXT WEEK 56 TURING THIS INTO AN OPPORTUNITY FOR POSITIVE GLOBAL CHANGE ADAPTATION, RESILIENCE, AND INNOVATION! Technological solutions & behavior change.
  57. 57. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 CLIMATE CHANGE INFLUENCERS Trolls Disruptors Talking heads Political wonks Paradigm shifters DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015
  58. 58. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 THE CLIMATE IS NOT A DEBATE TOPIC 58 "Is Capitalism the problem?” You’ll be assigned a specific role to play, as a member of the activist, media, business, scientific, or political community. As your character, prepare a one minute statement (timed) to deliver to the class responding to the prompt above. You have 30 minutes to prepare, including your break time.
  59. 59. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 THE CHARACTERS 59 ACTIVIST MEDIA SCIENTIFIC GOVERNMENT BUSINESS Bill McKibben 350.org Steven Colbert Host, The Late Show Gavin Schmidt Climatologist, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Jeb Bush 2016 US Presidential Candidate Elon Musk CEO, Tesla Fred Krupp President, The Environmental Defense Fund Elizabeth Kolbert The New Yorker Neil deGrasse Tyson Director of the Hayden Planetarium Gina McCarthy Administrator, The EPA Bob Dudley CEO, British Petroleum Joseph Bast President and CEO, The Heartland Institute Bill O’Reilly Host, The O’Reilly Factor John Holdren Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy, the White House Xi Jinping President of China Larry Page CEO, Google (Future CEO Alphabet) Jacqui Patterson Director, NAACP Environmental and Climate Justice Program Joel Makower Chairman & Executive Editor, GreenBiz Richard Lindzen Professor of Meteorology, MIT Ban Ki-moon Secretary-General, the UN Charles Koch CEO, Koch Industries
  60. 60. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 HOMEWORK Rich research Event experience design DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015
  61. 61. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 HOMEWORK 61 Read: The Sunniest Climate-Change Story You’ve Ever Read http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/09/sunniest-climate-change-story-ever-read.html Workshop Roles / Focus • Transportation topic • Business solutions topic • Renewables deployment & efficiency topic • Target awareness topic • Event facilitation, design Propose 2 activities for a workshop designed to harvest/brainstorm ideas for your category of focus: • Your activity should last 45 minutes; About 7 people per group • Divide activity into opening, brainstorming, and closing segments • Design activity prompts – including a template to share ideas prior to collective brainstorming
  62. 62. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 INVITE ATTENDEES TO EVENT! 62 Forward the email to people of interest Spread the word & build momentum Use it as an excuse to meet new people
  63. 63. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 TEAM ASSIGNMENTS 63 FOUR PEOPLE PER GROUP.
  64. 64. DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015DESIGNING CLIMATE ACTION | WEEK 2: SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 FIN.

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