OMMA DDM Conference 2013-07-24


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OMMA DDM Conference 2013-07-24

  1. 1. Embedded Specialized Accomplished OMMA DDM Conference July 24, 2013 The Imminent Ad Tech Shakeout: Is Consolidation in the Horizon?
  2. 2. 2 Speaker Background Dan Chen – Managing Director, Siemer & Associates Office: (310) 861-2118 Mobile: (310) 384-9791 Email: Dan Chen brings to Siemer & Associates over 15 years of investment banking, private equity and corporate development experience and completed transactions totaling over $5 billion in value. Prior to joining Siemer & Associates, Dan was a senior banker at Montgomery & Co., a boutique investment bank providing M&A and capital raising advisory services to companies in the software, digital media and Internet services space. Dan also spent several years as a private equity and venture investment professional at San Francisco-based TPG Capital. At TPG, he handled all aspects of deal sourcing and transaction execution for TPG’s cross-border private equity and venture investments in the U.S. and Asia. He was particularly involved with providing operational support for several portfolio companies in the Internet media, advertising, and services space. Dan began his career in the Tech M&A group at Merrill Lynch & Co. in New York and San Francisco. He graduated from Yale University with a bachelor’s degree in economics, and currently resides in Los Angeles.
  3. 3. 3 VC Investment in Ad Tech Declining Source: Headwaters MB $645.3 $786.9 $1,242.0 $543.1 $431.0 $945.9 $573.3 $257.8 $253.3 $324.5 109 98 90 99 96 75 63 57 48 56 $7.3 $8.8 $17.7 $6.8 $5.3 $14.6 $11.5 $5.5 $6.2 $7.1 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 $0.0 $200.0 $400.0 $600.0 $800.0 $1,000.0 $1,200.0 $1,400.0 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 NumberofDeals Value(in$mm) Aggregate Deal Value Number of Deals Avg. Deal Size Ad tech businesses have largely proven to be unprofitable and challenging businesses to exit successfully
  4. 4. 4 M&A Activity Increasing as Investors Lose Patience Ad tech transactions for the first half of 2013 doubled YoY from the beginning of 2012 ― Investors in the ad tech space are losing patience with slow returns, pushing their companies to either find buyers or show a clear path to profitability 17 34 $163 $1,246 $0.0 $400.0 $800.0 $1,200.0 $1,600.0 H1 2012 H1 2013 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 Value(in$mm) NumberofDeals Number of Deals Deal Size
  5. 5. 5 Recent M&A Activity Date Target Buyer / Investor Comments Jul 2013 IgnitionOne (spinout from Dentsu led by management) ABS Capital, Persimmon Capital • Buyside marketing tech platform • Single stack solution for multi- channel media buying in search, display, mobile, and social • Competes with Turn, MediaMath, Adobe, Marin Software, Kenshoo, Criteo and Rocketfuel. • $100M revenue Apr 2013 Dedicated Media LIN TV • Multichannel ad buying platform Jan 2013 Akamai’s Advertising Decision Solutions Unit MediaMath • Akamai’s data co-op and management platform • Pixel-free tracking technology Jan 2013 MediaWhiz - $10M Matomy • Multichannel performance marketing platform Jan 2013 TapIt! Media - $23M Phunware • Mobile display ad mediation
  6. 6. 6 What’s Driving This? Investors have realized that Ad Tech Businesses are generally profit-challenged Too many “point solutions” funded – Too much overlap and competition Not enough revenue / profit in the market – unnecessary duplicative costs ― Every dollar of agency spend nets a publisher $0.45 on average ― Remainder gets cut up among trading desks, DSPs, exchanges, networks, data suppliers, data aggregators, ad verification, tag management, retargeters, optimization, SSPs, etc. Agencies used to be able to manage multiple vendors – now they all want to consolidate their vendor relationships Only a handful of players are achieving size, scale, profitability (AppNexus) ― Often play the role of consolidator(s) in the space and stepping in where large media strategics have bowed out; can attract growth capital Most players are running out of funding and not in a position to receive more Many driven by impatient investors to exit – oftentimes at unattractive valuations Too large ? … go IPO Too small or undifferentiated? … wind down (AdBrite)
  7. 7. 7 Ad Tech IPOs Tremor Video’s recent IPO suggests previous unsuccessful attempts at securing buyers as those with interest in the space – strategic or financial – become scarce ― Tremor raised only $75.0mm of the $90.0mm it was seeking; unprofitable - $16.0mm loss in 2012 YuMe has recently filed S-1 and others are expecting to follow suit Recent IPOs Indicative of “Last Resort” Options for Ad Tech Companies Tremor Video Stock Price Performance since IPO $6.50 $7.00 $7.50 $8.00 $8.50 $9.00 $9.50 28-Jun-13 29-Jun-13 30-Jun-13 1-Jul-13 2-Jul-13 3-Jul-13 4-Jul-13 5-Jul-13 6-Jul-13 7-Jul-13 8-Jul-13 9-Jul-13 10-Jul-13 11-Jul-13 12-Jul-13 13-Jul-13 14-Jul-13 15-Jul-13 16-Jul-13 17-Jul-13 18-Jul-13 19-Jul-13 20-Jul-13 21-Jul-13 22-Jul-13 ClosingPrice Performance - 16% from IPO open of $10.00
  8. 8. 8 Ad Tech Public Companies Few ad tech companies are publicly traded; few that are public are performing well ― Millennial Media currently at $9.00 vs IPO open $13.00, close $23.50 (down 60%) – unprofitable ― Velti currently at $1.00 vs Mar 2012 price of $13.55 (down 92%) ― ValueClick is the rare exception – its stock has risen over 30% since Mar 2012 price of $19.74 Publicly traded pure play ad tech companies are few and rare; not many are performing well Stock Price Performance Performance ValueClick +30% Millennial Media - 60% Velti - 95%$0.00 $5.00 $10.00 $15.00 $20.00 $25.00 $30.00 $35.00 ClosingPrice Millennial Media Velti ValueClick
  9. 9. 9 Market Still Controlled by Small Number of Top Vendors Advertising agencies agree there is too much overlap amongst companies that only provide simple point solutions over sustainable services ― For every one successful company, there are 35-40 unprofitable companies offering redundant products, splitting a revenue pie that is too small to sustain the entire ecosystem Few end up achieving the size and scale needed to become attractive acquisition targets or to be consolidators in the space 90.0% 82.0% 73.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A IndustryRevenue% Top 50 Top 25 Top 10 Top 10 Ad Companies Command 73.0% of Industry Revenues
  10. 10. 10 Display Ad Landscape – Unsustainable Number of Players Source: LUMAscape
  11. 11. 11 Search Ad Landscape – Same Here Source: LUMAscape
  12. 12. 12 Video Ad Landscape – … and Here Source: LUMAscape
  13. 13. 13 Mobile Ad Landscape – and it’s becoming an issue Here Source: LUMAscape
  14. 14. 14 Social Advertising Landscape – as well as Here Source: LUMAscape
  16. 16. 16 So What’s Happening? Consolidation of Point Solutions toward Broader Platform Offering Source: LUMAscape
  17. 17. 17 Potential Consolidators? Company Capital Raised Investors Comments AppNexus $75.0M (Jan 2013) TCV, Venrock, Tribeca • DSP Videology $68.3M (May 2013) NEA, Comcast, Valhalla, Pinnacle, Catalyst • Video advertising • DSP RocketFuel $50.0M (Jun 2012) Mohr Davidow, Summit, Northgate, Nokia • Multichannel DSP PubMatic $45.0M (Jun 2012) August, DFJ, Nexus, Helion • SSP OpenX $27.5M (Dec 2012) Accel, SAP, Index, Samsung, Mitsui • Ad Exchange and DSP JumpTap $27.5M (Jun 2012) Summerhill, Redpoint, Valhalla, General Catalyst • Mobile RTB Flurry $25.3M (Nov 2012) DFJ, InterWest, Menlo, CrossLink, Union Square • Mobile analytics and advertising DataLogix $25.0M (April 2013) IVP, Sequel, General Catalyst • DSP Collective Media $20.0M (May 2013) Accel, Samsung, Cox • Ad exchange Nexage $15.0M (May 2012) Hearst, GrandBanks Capital, Relay, SingTel • Ad exchange, mediation and DSP
  18. 18. 18 Spring 2013 Online Advertising Report Strategic Buyer Interests Low Interest / Valuation High Mobile / Video Social Online StrategicInterest/Priority RTB Auction Exchanges DSPs Self-Serve Platforms Local / SMB Search Agency SMS / MMS Marketing In-App Display FB Game Ads Ad Networks Affiliate Networks Display User Acquisition Marketing In- App Video Ad tech companies with strong technology and high potential for scalability in the areas of mobile, video and / or social attract highest interest
  19. 19. 19 DMP Trends DMPs have become fragmented as well – need for a DMP for DMPs / DSPs to emerge ― Validate and “cleanse” data from multiple DMPs / DSPs ― Provide mediation across various DMPs / DSPs in order to maximize targeting accuracy, reach ― Provide integrated DCO, tag management, ad verification capabilities as part of solution Key trend is the separation of the data layer from the execution layer in the marketing stack ― Brands want to leverage learnings of their audience profiles and customer data and apply that to all marketing and consumer touch-points – online and offline Biggest opportunity for growth lies in ability to use accurate data profiles across all consumer marketing channels ― Huge opportunity in using data to inform offline media buying ― Important areas of focus also include social, video and mobile Current implementation efforts are focused on the core purpose of targeted media buying Long-term potential for DMPs to be integrated into core business software systems to facilitate data-driven decision making on sales, product dev, fin mgmt
  20. 20. 20 DMP Trends 59.0% 69.0% 73.0% 76.0% 83.0% 84.0% 84.0% 86.0% 90.0% 93.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% Advertising Yield Optimization Site Content Optimization Creative Content Optimization CRM Program Optimization Channel Optimization Emerging Channel Deployment Multichannel Integration & Optimization Campaign Channel Attribution Targeted Media Buying Customer Insight Development Priority Applications for Future DMPsGenerally Supported Applications by Existing DMPs 23.0% 32.0% 32.0% 36.0% 37.0% 40.0% 44.0% 45.0% 78.0% 82.0% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Emerging Channel Deployment Creative Content Optimization Site Content Optimization CRM Program Optimization Advertising Yield Optimization Multichannel Integration & Optimization Campaign Channel Attribution Channel Optimization Customer Insight Development Targeted Media Buying Survey conducted by IAP & Winterberry Group
  21. 21. 21 Contact Information Siemer & Associates, LLC ● Member FINRA/SIPC 1333 2nd Street, Suite 600 Santa Monica, CA 90401 Phone: (310) 861-2100 Fax: (310) 861-2125