Amar Zabarah
     Breaking Through the Bottleneck                           Brittany Callahan
    Transportation to Make S...
Outline

    • Background Information

    • Problem Statement

    • Capacity, Delays & Demands

    • Design Alternative...
Background Information
    The New York Metroplex
    & Stewart International Airport




4
BACKGROUND INFORMATION

    NYC Population Growing; Airport Capacity is Not

    • Made up of three airports:             ...
BACKGROUND INFORMATION

    Stewart International Airport
    THE UNUSED RESOURCE


    • Port Authority of NY/NJ acquired...
Problem Statement

     There is a need for a transportation system that is
     capable of linking Stewart International ...
BACKGROUND INFORMATION

    Scope of Study

     In                                    Out

      • Alternate modes of    ...
Pick up Point




9
10
Capacities, Delays,
     & Demands
     Understanding Capacity, Delays, and
     Demands.




11
CAPACITIES, DELAYS & DEMANDS
                                                               SWF Daily Movements, 2007!
   ...
CAPACITIES, DELAYS & DEMANDS

     Delays

     • ρ is the ratio of demand to
       capacity.

     • A system will commo...
CAPACITIES, DELAYS & DEMANDS

     Passenger Demand                                                                   Exce...
CAPACITIES, DELAYS & DEMANDS

                    NYC Airport Movement Overflow (when ρ ≥ 0.8)
                            ...
CAPACITIES, DELAYS & DEMANDS

     NYC Airport Passenger Overflow

                                               Average  ...
CAPACITIES, DELAYS & DEMANDS


                                      Passenger Demand per Minute of Day!
                 ...
Design Alternatives
     The Sikorsky S-92,
     Eurocopter Super Puma,
     Austal Ferry, and the SkyCat-50




18
DESIGN ALTERNATIVES

     Vessels




                         Helicopter     Helicopter    High-Speed Ferry   Air Vehicle...
Value Hierarchy


     Methodology
     Value Hierarchy,
     Simulation,
     & Financial Analysis   Financial Analysis  ...
METHODOLOGY

     Value Hierarchy




21                     Representative Stakeholders
METHODOLOGY

     Utility Functions

     • Derived utility functions from our value hierarchy:




22
METHODOLOGY

     Simulation
     Continuous Simulation




23
24
25
26
Results
     Vessel Performance,
     Costs Analysis,
     & Final Utility Rating




27
RESULTS

     Ferry Queueing Time per Vessel Added




28
Service Times for Transportation Alternatives!
                                                 540!
     Average Passenge...
Passenger Throughput "
                                          for Transportation Alternatives!
                        ...
Passenger Throughput vs. Trip Count!
                            22500!

                            20000!

             ...
Emissions and Noise




                         Super Puma   Sikorsky S-92   Austal Ferry   SkyCat-50

         Vessels  ...
RESULTS

     System Costs per Year



                        Super Puma   Sikorsky S-92   Austal Ferry   SkyCat-50

    ...
RESULTS

     Utility Scores




                      Utility for Transportation Alternatives

                  SkyCat-5...
System Utility!
                0.8!

                0.7!

                0.6!

                0.5!
     Utility!




 ...
Sensitivity Analysis
     Effects on Performance & Suitability




36
Sensitivity Analysis on Performance




37
Sensitivity Analysis on Flexibility




38
Sensitivity Analysis on Suitability




39
Sensitivity Analysis on Noise




40
Further Analysis
     Parametric Analysis on the effects of
     Cruising Speed and Capacity on
     Service Time.




41
Sikorsky S-92

           Super Puma


                                    Ferry




                        SkyCat-50



...
Ideal Vessel

     • To keep service time below 60
       minutes, an ideal vessel will
       have:

       • Seating ran...
Future Work
     Future Work




44
Future Work

     • Hybrid System that uses two or more vessel types


     • Further research on vessels (Safety, MTTR an...
Thank you for listening




                          46
Backup Slides




                47
CONCLUSIONS

     Vessel Performance

                           Super Puma   Sikorsky S-92   Austal Ferry   SkyCat-50

  ...
Cost Estimating Relationships


                     Helicopter     Helicopter    High-Speed Ferry   Air Vehicle
         ...
DESIGN ALTERNATIVES

     Vessels




                       Helicopter       Helicopter    High-Speed Ferry   Air Vehicle...
51
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54
Breaking Through the Bottleneck
Breaking Through the Bottleneck
Breaking Through the Bottleneck
Breaking Through the Bottleneck
Breaking Through the Bottleneck
Breaking Through the Bottleneck
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Breaking Through the Bottleneck

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Transportation to Make Stewart a Viable New York Airport

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Breaking Through the Bottleneck

  1. 1. Amar Zabarah Breaking Through the Bottleneck Brittany Callahan Transportation to Make Stewart a Viable New York Airport Claudia Antezano David Lamartin GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY DR. LANCE SHERRY, FACULTY SPONSOR Renato Henriques Shakeeb Rahman 2
  2. 2. Outline • Background Information • Problem Statement • Capacity, Delays & Demands • Design Alternatives • Methodology • Results • Sensitivity Analysis • Future Work 3
  3. 3. Background Information The New York Metroplex & Stewart International Airport 4
  4. 4. BACKGROUND INFORMATION NYC Population Growing; Airport Capacity is Not • Made up of three airports: NYC Population Growth 25M • John F. Kennedy International 20M • LaGuardia International Population in Millions • Newark Liberty International 15M • Forms the busiest, most crowded airport hub in the 10M world. • Population expected to grow 5M by 2-3 M in the next 20 years. • Increasing airport capacity is a 0M significant challenge. 1990 2000 2008 - 2030 Year 5 Data from US Census Data
  5. 5. BACKGROUND INFORMATION Stewart International Airport THE UNUSED RESOURCE • Port Authority of NY/NJ acquired 90 year lease in 2007. Distance ~96km • SWF is located 60 miles (~96km) north of Manhattan. Runways 2 Current Operations 2k (passengers/day) Max Capacity 54 - 137k (passengers/day) • Getting airlines to operate out of SWF has proved to be difficult. • Thus, Stewart lies under utilized, always operating well below its capacity. 6
  6. 6. Problem Statement There is a need for a transportation system that is capable of linking Stewart International Airport to Manhattan within 1 to 3 years to make Stewart more attractive to the Manhattan traveling populace. 7
  7. 7. BACKGROUND INFORMATION Scope of Study In Out • Alternate modes of • NYC airport delays transportation • Hybrid system • Ideal vessel characteristics • Security, commute to boarding • Only transit from gate to gate terminals, luggage handling, and parking • Implementation time of 1-3 years • Boarding terminals 8
  8. 8. Pick up Point 9
  9. 9. 10
  10. 10. Capacities, Delays, & Demands Understanding Capacity, Delays, and Demands. 11
  11. 11. CAPACITIES, DELAYS & DEMANDS SWF Daily Movements, 2007! Airport Capacity 14! 12! • Airport capacity is defined as the number of movements an 10! airport can handle. Average Movements! • 1 movement = 1 arrival 8! or departure 6! • Capacity is dynamic; it is difficult to declare an airport’s 4! capacity. • However, we can show the 2! probability that an airport will be able to handle a certain 0! capacity given its history. 0! 2! 4! 6! 8! 10! 12! 14! 16! 18! 20! 22! Hour of Day! Declared Capacity! Actual Operations! 12 SWF Daily Movement Data from Project HummingBird Research
  12. 12. CAPACITIES, DELAYS & DEMANDS Delays • ρ is the ratio of demand to capacity. • A system will commonly begin to experience stochastic delays as ρ approaches 1. • Stochastic delays can become excessive when ρ ≥ 0.8. • We assume that when ρ ≥ 0.8, it is likely to contribute to stochastic delays. 13
  13. 13. CAPACITIES, DELAYS & DEMANDS Passenger Demand Excess Flights for NYC Airports! 14! Average Movements over 0.8 Threshold! 12! • Consumer base is calculated 10! by applying this ρ value to 2007 8! 6! NYC airport traffic. 4! 2! • Take the product of the average 0! movements that exceed that 0! 1! 2! 3! 4! 5! 6! 7! 8! 9! 10! 11! 12! 13! 14! 15! 16! 17! 18! 19! 20! 21! 22! 23! Hour of Day! 0.8 threshold with the average EWR! JFK! LGA! number of passengers per flight. Data from Project HummingBird Research • Sum for all airports. Airport Movements Average PAX Total PAX ρ > 0.8 per day per flight per flight • There are a total of 22,500 EWR 81 71 5,751 passengers each day that exceed the 0.8 capacity in the JFK 109 79 8,611 NYC airports. LGA 138 59 8,142 Total ~22,500 14 Data from Project HummingBird Research
  14. 14. CAPACITIES, DELAYS & DEMANDS NYC Airport Movement Overflow (when ρ ≥ 0.8) Excess Flights for NYC Airports! 14! Average Movements over 0.8 Threshold! 12! 10! 8! 6! 4! 2! 0! 0! 1! 2! 3! 4! 5! 6! 7! 8! 9! 10! 11! 12! 13! 14! 15! 16! 17! 18! 19! 20! 21! 22! 23! Hour of Day! EWR! JFK! LGA! 15 Data from Project HummingBird Research
  15. 15. CAPACITIES, DELAYS & DEMANDS NYC Airport Passenger Overflow Average Total Airport Movements ρ > 0.8 per day Passengers Passengers per flight per day EWR 81 71 5,751 JFK 109 79 8,611 LGA 138 59 8,142 Total ~22,500 16 Data from Project HummingBird Research
  16. 16. CAPACITIES, DELAYS & DEMANDS Passenger Demand per Minute of Day! 18! 16! Passengers (per minute)! 14! 12! 10! 8! 6! 4! 2! 0! 360! 420! 480! 540! 600! 660! 720! 780! 840! 900! 960! 1020! 1080! 1140! 1200! 1260! 1320! 1380! Minute of Day! 17
  17. 17. Design Alternatives The Sikorsky S-92, Eurocopter Super Puma, Austal Ferry, and the SkyCat-50 18
  18. 18. DESIGN ALTERNATIVES Vessels Helicopter Helicopter High-Speed Ferry Air Vehicle Super Puma Sikorsky S-92 Austal Ferry SkyCat-50 Purchase Cost $13.7 $18.9 $14 $50 (millions) Seating Capacity 20 21 450 200 Transit Time 22 20 90 45 (minutes) 19
  19. 19. Value Hierarchy Methodology Value Hierarchy, Simulation, & Financial Analysis Financial Analysis Simulation 20
  20. 20. METHODOLOGY Value Hierarchy 21 Representative Stakeholders
  21. 21. METHODOLOGY Utility Functions • Derived utility functions from our value hierarchy: 22
  22. 22. METHODOLOGY Simulation Continuous Simulation 23
  23. 23. 24
  24. 24. 25
  25. 25. 26
  26. 26. Results Vessel Performance, Costs Analysis, & Final Utility Rating 27
  27. 27. RESULTS Ferry Queueing Time per Vessel Added 28
  28. 28. Service Times for Transportation Alternatives! 540! Average Passenger Service Time (minutes)! 480! 420! 360! 300! 240! 180! 120! 60! 0! 1! 3! 5! 7! 9! 11! 13! 15! 17! 19! 21! 23! 25! Number of Vessels! Ferry! Sikorsky S-92! SkyCat-50! Super Puma! 29
  29. 29. Passenger Throughput " for Transportation Alternatives! 22500! 20000! 17500! Passengers Serviced! 15000! 12500! 10000! 7500! 5000! 2500! 0! 1! 3! 5! 7! 9! 11! 13! 15! 17! 19! 21! 23! 25! Number of Vessels! Ferry! Sikorsky S-92! SkyCat-50! Super Puma! 30
  30. 30. Passenger Throughput vs. Trip Count! 22500! 20000! 17500! Passengers Serviced! 15000! 12500! 10000! 7500! 5000! 2500! 0! 0! 100! 200! 300! 400! 500! 600! Trip Count! Ferry! Sikorsky S-92! SkyCat-50! Super Puma! 31
  31. 31. Emissions and Noise Super Puma Sikorsky S-92 Austal Ferry SkyCat-50 Vessels 16 14 11 15 Frequency 518 520 49 111 (trips / day) Emissions 885 1,046 476 159 (kilograms / day) Noise 94 90 89 70 (SEL dB 200ft) 32
  32. 32. RESULTS System Costs per Year Super Puma Sikorsky S-92 Austal Ferry SkyCat-50 Vessels 16 14 11 15 Fuel $79.2M $77.2M $31.0M $16.4M Training $0.5M $0.5M $0.6M $0.3M Crew $2.6M $2.3M $8.5M $6.6M Maintenance $116.8M $85.7M $6.2M $6.8M Insurance $7.5M $7.9M $2.7M $22.5M Yearly Payment $15.2M $18.4M $10.7M $83.4M Cost / Year $221.8M $192.0M $59.7M $136.0M Cost / Passenger $53.2 $47.9 $7.8 $17.6 33
  33. 33. RESULTS Utility Scores Utility for Transportation Alternatives SkyCat-50 0.80 Austal Ferry 0.73 AS332 Super Puma 0.39 Sikorsky S-92 0.37 34
  34. 34. System Utility! 0.8! 0.7! 0.6! 0.5! Utility! 0.4! 0.3! 0.2! 0.1! 0! 0! 50! 100! 150! 200! 250! Cost/year (millions USD)! Ferry! Sikorsky S-92! SkyCat-50! Super Puma! 35
  35. 35. Sensitivity Analysis Effects on Performance & Suitability 36
  36. 36. Sensitivity Analysis on Performance 37
  37. 37. Sensitivity Analysis on Flexibility 38
  38. 38. Sensitivity Analysis on Suitability 39
  39. 39. Sensitivity Analysis on Noise 40
  40. 40. Further Analysis Parametric Analysis on the effects of Cruising Speed and Capacity on Service Time. 41
  41. 41. Sikorsky S-92 Super Puma Ferry SkyCat-50 42
  42. 42. Ideal Vessel • To keep service time below 60 minutes, an ideal vessel will have: • Seating range of 50-200 people • Cruising speed above 105 km/h 43
  43. 43. Future Work Future Work 44
  44. 44. Future Work • Hybrid System that uses two or more vessel types • Further research on vessels (Safety, MTTR and MTBF) • Terminal Locations • Secondary transportation systems (shuttle service) • Weather tolerance 45
  45. 45. Thank you for listening 46
  46. 46. Backup Slides 47
  47. 47. CONCLUSIONS Vessel Performance Super Puma Sikorsky S-92 Austal Ferry SkyCat-50 Vessels 16 14 11 15 Pax Throughput 11k 11k 22k 22k (per day) Service + Queue 189 197 100 49 (minutes/passenger) Frequency 181k 182k 17k 39k (trips / year) Noise 94 90 89 70 (SEL dB 200ft) Emissions 310 366 167 56 (tonnes / year) Cost / Year $221.8 $192.0 $59.7 $136.0 Cost / Passenger $53.2 $47.9 $7.8 $17.6 48
  48. 48. Cost Estimating Relationships Helicopter Helicopter High-Speed Ferry Air Vehicle Super Puma Sikorsky S-92 Austal Ferry SkyCat-50 Fuel $1,008 $1,157 $1,203 $562 ($/Hour) Crew $161,138 $161,138 $777,000 $437,000 ($/Vessel) Maintenance $1,486 $1,285 $240 $234 ($/Hour) 49
  49. 49. DESIGN ALTERNATIVES Vessels Helicopter Helicopter High-Speed Ferry Air Vehicle Super Puma Sikorsky S-92 Austal Ferry SkyCat-50 Fuel $1,008 $1,157 $1,203 $562 ($/Hour) Crew $161,138 $161,138 $777,000 $437,000 ($/Vessel) Maintenance $1,486 $1,285 $240 $234 ($/Hour) 50
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