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The Top-5 Technologies All Organizations Must Understand

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Talk given at the Stanford HPC-AI Conference. We discuss the digital infrastructure of the future enterprise and the state of critical technology trends. OrionX works with clients on the impact of Digital Transformation on them, their customers, and their messages. Generally, they want to track, in one place, trends like IoT, 5G, AI, Blockchain, and Quantum Computing. And they want to know what these trends mean, how they affect each other, and when they demand action, and how to formulate and execute an effective plan. If that describes you, we can help.

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The Top-5 Technologies All Organizations Must Understand

  1. 1. @ShahinKhan ©2020 OrionX.net 1 OrionX.net QuantumIoT 5G Blockchain AI / HPC Industry Analysis•Market Execution•Demand Generation
  2. 2. @ShahinKhan HPC-AI Advisory Council Stanford Conference April, 2020 Shahin.Khan@OrionX.net The Top-5 Technologies All Organizations Must Understand
  3. 3. @ShahinKhan ª The Industrial revolution changed most aspects of life ª The Information Revolution is just starting ª This is why we are seeing so many big trends at the same time ª It’s too many buzzwords but understanding them in one place is mandatory ©2020 OrionX.net 3 Revolutions Change Things
  4. 4. @ShahinKhan Enterprise as a System Opportunity and Threat The Future ©2020 OrionX.net 4 Digital Transformation QuantumIoT 5G Blockchain AI / HPC
  5. 5. @ShahinKhan@ShahinKhan The opportunity is incredibly rewarding. New markets. New business models. e.g. Nvidia The threat is unmistakably existential. New competition. New customer needs. e.g. many! Why should you care? @ShahinKhan
  6. 6. @ShahinKhan Data Interpretation Policy Extraction – Digitization Processing – IT Systems Interpretation – HPC ©2020 OrionX.net 6
  7. 7. @ShahinKhan Sources of data 7 Organizations People Systems Things Structured Data Extracting Information Content Apps ©2020 OrionX.net ©2020 OrionX.net
  8. 8. @ShahinKhan Everything is Smart ª Embedded, Mobile, Cloud ª Scale, Reliability, Speed, Ease of use, Environmentals, Cost ª Attack surface ª Lots of protocols – LPWAN, Zigbee, SigFox, LoRa, 3G-4G-5G, BLE, WiFi, OpenRAN, etc. IoT ©2020 OrionX.net 8 Event Control Trigger Command Insight Policy Business Objectives Level-0: Devices Level-2: Intelligence E d g e G l o b a l L o c a l M2M Switch Router Sensors Lake Gateway Level-1.x: Local Treatment Cloud Mobile Embedded ©2020 OrionX.net
  9. 9. @ShahinKhan Data is the new oil IoT Big picture ©2020 OrionX.net 9 Atoms – Things Bits – Information Physical Twin Digital Twin Data Economy Data Sources GovernanceApplicationsDataDevices Data Supplies Data Product Data Market Security {Device, Mobile} to Cloud Cloud to {Insight, Control, Commerce} ©2020 OrionX.net
  10. 10. @ShahinKhan Everything is Connected ª Big next-generation standard, hot global topic ª Two different similar 5G standards – 3GPP – IMT-2020 ª Buzzwords (Service Classes) – eMBB (enhanced Mobile BroadBand) – URLLC (Ultra Reliable Low Latency Communications) – mMTC (massive Machine Type Communications) ª Wide spectrum – Millimeter waves: ~30GHz-300GHz – 200 to 950 MBytes/s have been measured – Spectrum allocation impacts speed, etc. 5G ©2020 OrionX.net 10 ª Issues – Suburban and rural coverage – Access inside buildings or in snow/rain – Lingering health concerns ª Classes of technologies – Handset, Tower, Picocells, Back-end Switches – Software: Serverization, Network Function Virtualization (NFV), Open Cellular, SDN, etc. ª Real-looking use cases – Tele-surgery – Driverless cars: Vehicle-to-Everything (V2X), V2V, V2I (Infrastructure) – Edge Computing – VR/AR (maybe?) Coverage 100% Low Power 90% less Back-end Robustness Density 1mil devices/km2 Precision <1m Latency 1ms Bandwidth 20 Gbps
  11. 11. @ShahinKhan Everything is Computable Supercomputing ©2020 OrionX.net 11 New Idea New Way New Model New Data Theory Experiment AI Simulation Communication Instrumentation Visualization Automation Digitization Data STEM IT HPCModeling ©2020 OrionX.net ©2020 OrionX.net
  12. 12. @ShahinKhan Parallelism ©2020 OrionX.net 12 Concurrency Intensity Vector/GPU In-Memory ClusterReplicate Systems Memory Compute Serial Parallel Single-Node Traditional Models AI Algorithmic ©2020 OrionX.net
  13. 13. @ShahinKhan Technology Options Classical Quantum Digital Analog Post Laws Quantum Gate Quantum Annealing Mixed Signal Source: Radical Semiconductor and OrionX collaboration ©2020 OrionX.net 13 Concurrency Intensity Vector/GPU In-Memory ClusterReplicate Systems Memory Compute Serial Parallel Single-Node Traditional Models AI Algorithmic ©2020 OrionX.net
  14. 14. @ShahinKhan App Logic Elasticity Microservices Serverless SLA Policy Programmability Control Job Control Workload Scripts Network Scripts Ticketing Traffic Topology Network Services Security Intra-App Communication Apps: Containers, Automation, Fabric ©2020 OrionX.net 14 ©2020 OrionX.net
  15. 15. @ShahinKhan IT Transformation to Cloud: Promise, Reality, Solution ©2020 OrionX.net 15 ©2020 OrionX.net
  16. 16. @ShahinKhan Intelligence is Computable AI = High Performance AI ©2020 OrionX.net 16 Artificial Intelligence Search Logical Expert SystemStatistical Numerical Optimization Big Data Simulation / HPC Automation / IoTCloud Big Rules of Big Data AIIoT ©2020 OrionX.net ©2020 OrionX.net
  17. 17. @ShahinKhan ª Autonomy limited by the precise definition of the scope ª Tolerance for mistakes ª Used for good or evil? ª Elimination of large classes of jobs by AI systems. ª Darwinian mistake? ª Asimov rules for robots ª Arguably a more important parameter than technological advances ª Unintended consequences ª System complexity can exceed human competence (Grand) Challenges Ethical ComplexityUnpredictability Legal Framework Autonomy ©2020 OrionX.net 17
  18. 18. @ShahinKhan Everything is a Probability Function ª “Overhyped and Underestimated”, Hot, and will remain hot for the next decade ª Current state: NISQ: Noisy Intermediate Scale ª Global push: tens of serious efforts in multiple applications ª Used as an accelerator to classical computing, Programmability advancing ª Buzzwords: QIS, Supremacy, Y2Q, Quantum-safe Cryptography, QML, QEC, QKD, .. Quantum Computing ©2020 OrionX.net 18 Qubits Probability Functions Universal QC De-coherence Cryogenics Many approaches Lasers Photonics Solid State • • • Electron Hole Boson Sampling Trapped Ion Annealing Positronics • • • ©2020 OrionX.net
  19. 19. @ShahinKhan ª Quantum Annealing ª Gate Model – Trapped atom/ion – Photonics – Topological ª Cryogenics ª Decoherence, QEC ª Quantum Volume – Count – Connectivity – Fidelity ª Entangled Photon ª Repeaters ª Teleportation ª Internet ª Older examples – Atomic Clocks – Magnetometers ª Emerging uses – Sensors that respond to quantum stimuli – Single-atom level – Quantum energy levels – Entanglement to improve accuracy/sensitivity Quantum Market Segments ©2020 OrionX.net 19 Computing Communications Sensing
  20. 20. @ShahinKhan ª Coins/Tokens ª Addresses ª Cryptography ª Wallets ª Smart Contracts ª Exchanges ª Apps ª Bitcoin digitized gold – Mining ª Blockchain distributed ledger – Authenticity via computational challenge ª Increasing acceptance ª Increasing use cases ª But: legal challenges Digital Money? ©2020 OrionX.net 20 The Satoshi Paper, Oct. ’08 Components Bitcoin Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System Satoshi Nakamoto satoshin@gmx.com www.bitcoin.org Abstract. A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution. Digital signatures provide part of the solution, but the main benefits are lost if a trusted third party is still required to prevent double- spending. We propose a solution to the double-spending problem using a peer-to-peer network. The network timestamps transactions by hashing them into an ongoing chain of hash- based proof-of-work, forming a record that cannot be changed without redoing the proof-of-work. The longest chain not only serves as proof of the sequence of events witnessed, but proof that it came from the largest pool of CPU power. As long as a majority of CPU power is controlled by nodes that are not cooperating to attack the network, they'll generate the longest chain and outpace attackers. The network itself requires minimal structure. Messages are broadcast on a best effort basis, and nodes can leave and rejoin the network at will, accepting the longest proof-of-work chain as proof of what happened while they were gone.
  21. 21. @ShahinKhan Digital Money Store of value Safety? Unit of account Supply? Medium of exchange Stability? What is it? ©2020 OrionX.net 21 ©2020 OrionX.net
  22. 22. @ShahinKhan ª Like old days ª Both sides need the same key ª Key must be kept secret ª Must avoid eavesdroppers ª Need a trusted way to communicate ª Assume eavesdropping, but ª Make it difficult to decipher ª Need 3 ingredients such that – f ( (a,b), c) = f ( (a,c), b) – f is easy to calculate, but its inverse is very hard, eg modular arithmetic – a is public, while b and c are private – Both sides now have a shared key ª Provably random numbers ª Quantum Key Distribution – Entangled key transmission – Superposition photons – Sifting – Distilling Public Key Encryption – Basic Concept ©2020 OrionX.net 22 Symmetric Asymmetric Quantum
  23. 23. @ShahinKhan Trust is computable Blockchain Emerging Stack ©2020 OrionX.net BlockchainParticipation Traceability Smart Contracts Rights Mgmt DistributedScale Permissioned / Private Smart ContractsStored Procedures Consensus Algorithms: Proof of *, Graph Layer-2 Technologies: Off chain Token: Equity, Utility ACID à CAP, REST, Idempotent Tokenless Identity vs. Transparent AnonymityDirectory DappsScale-out, P2P, Elastic Apps TPM à Middleware / Messaging Ledger: Transaction Blocks / GraphDatabase: SQL à NoSQL DexchangeExchange Decentralized / TrustlessCentralized Premissionless / Public Monolithic à Mulit-tier à Scale-out à Elastic à Serverless à Decentralized 23 ©2020 OrionX.net ©2020 OrionX.net
  24. 24. @ShahinKhan Contracts = Code ª Disrupts legal contracts ª Must be precise – Translation from natural language – Standards ª Must be deterministic – Code verification v. language-level enforcement – State Machine v. Turing-Complete – Limited set of transactions ª Must be secure, immutable once on chain – Validity prior to signature – Code injection prior to commitment to chain Smart Contracts ©2020 OrionX.net 24 Open Source Smart Contracts Event Triggered On-chain or Off-chain Transactions Stored in Chain ©2020 OrionX.net
  25. 25. @ShahinKhan@ShahinKhan “When things change, they’re not the same any more.” ©2020 OrionX.net 25 – Anonymous?
  26. 26. @ShahinKhan@ShahinKhan Call OrionX, of course, but regardless: 1. Get familiar, half a day 2. Track, few hours/quarter 3. Focus on cross-sections 4. Reflect on strategy and roadmap 5. Develop readiness criteria 6. Incorporate into your narrative Take it seriously What must you do now? @ShahinKhan
  27. 27. @ShahinKhan Shahin.Khan@OrionX.net April, 2020 Thank you!

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