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Equity, Inequity, and Machine Learning

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Jerry Talton, Director of Data and Machine Learning, Carta

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Equity, Inequity, and Machine Learning

  1. 1. Equity, Inequity, & Machine Learning Jerry Talton Director of Data & ML
  2. 2. Equity
  3. 3. ● Equity is a stock or security representing an ownership interest ● Equity usually vests over time (e.g., four years with a one year cliff) ● Liquidity events necessary to convert privately-held equity to $$$ (IPOs, M&As, tender offers) ● Tax implications of equity vary wildly depending on type of security and length of ownership (ordinary income, long-term capital gains, AMT) Equity 101 https://carta.com/blog/equity-101-equity-basics-for-founders/
  4. 4. ● Founders awarded common stock; investors buy preferred stock; early employees get options to buy common stock; later employees get RSUs ● Preferred stock may have liquidation preferences, antidilution provisions, observation rights, board voting rights, etc. ● Options have a strike price, a fair market value (or 409A valuation), and a post-termination exercise period (historically 90 days) Equity 101
  5. 5. Relationship status:
  6. 6. Relationship status: it’s complicated
  7. 7. What is Carta?
  8. 8. We issue electronic securities
  9. 9. We track the cap table
  10. 10. We track the portfolio
  11. 11. The Ownership Graph
  12. 12. “Come for the tool, stay for the network.” @cdixon
  13. 13. AverageInitialShares AverageInitialValue Initial Equity Grant by Employee Number 1 150 300 (Equity data anonymized & aggregated)
  14. 14. Equity Events as a function of Job Tenure (Equity data anonymized & aggregated)
  15. 15. Average Initial-to-Total Equity Ratio by Employee Number (Equity data anonymized & aggregated)
  16. 16. Post-Termination Exercise Rate by FMV-to-Strike Price Ratio (Equity data anonymized & aggregated)
  17. 17. Inequity
  18. 18. The Gap Table ● Joint work with #ANGELS investment collective ● 6k companies; 15k founders; 180k employees; $45bn in equity ● Excluded companies whose ToS exempt them from aggregate analysis ● Analyzed options, RSUs, and common stock ● Used 409A FMV and strike price to calculate option value ● Binarized* names to male & female using US Social Security data ● 13.6% of shareholders removed due to ambiguity (<85% gender associated) https://carta.com/blog/gap-table/
  19. 19. Equity is the most valuable component of startup compensation
  20. 20. Equity is the most valuable component of startup compensation Wealth inequality is driven more by ownership than by salary
  21. 21. Equity is the most valuable component of startup compensation Wealth inequality is driven more by ownership than by salary Democratizing ownership is key to reducing inequality
  22. 22. Machine Learning
  23. 23. The Future Compensation Analysis What’s a market equity offer? Data-Driven Valuations How should we price our round? Startup Network Effects Who drives the most value?
  24. 24. And one more thing…
  25. 25. Life is hard. If you need help, ask for it.
  26. 26. Life is hard. If you need help, ask for it.
  27. 27. Thanks! Follow me: @jerrytalton We’re hiring: carta.com/jobs

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