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Richard Boyd--Metaversial


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"Attack of the Algorithms: Serious Play with Netbots"

Machine Algorithms in the form of automation are slowly and steadily inserting themselves everywhere. They are trading stocks, reading the news for us, educating our children, and are beginning to drive cars. If we are to avoid the dark side of the Singularity, and instead evolve towards a symbiotic, platonic relationship with machines; what Hans Moravec calls "Ourselves in more potent form", we need to learn to play nice with them. In this talk, Singularity Capital Partner Richard Boyd will reveal just how far down the rabbit hole we have gone, and give some hopeful direction for how we can evolve towards a more peaceful coexistence with the machines. Since the demise of Google Reader a whole host of automated bots have emerged to inform and entertain us. This session will describe the emerging bot landscape and what it means for the evolving human and machine relationship.

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Richard Boyd--Metaversial

  1. 1. Attack of the Algorithms serious play with bots Richard Boyd Managing Partner Singularity Capital Serious Play August 21, 2013 Redmond, WA Twitter: Metaversial
  2. 2. Perspective Digital Natives Rise Stereoscopic 3D New Interfaces My gaming street cred Simulation Mobility Augmented Reality
  3. 3. Flow State Achieving Super-Proprioception Flow (Csikszentmihalyi, 1990) My talk last year at Serious Play about Flow State and Digital Fluency
  4. 4. The Simulation Century The 20th century was about recorded moving images, This century is about Simulation
  5. 5. Core Concepts in this talk • This is the Simulation Century • The central problem in an accelerating information age is how to achieve the right balance between humans and automation to optimize outcomes • Those who attain fluency with automation and digital tools will out-perform those who do not, and will begin to appear Super Human. • How do we teach digital fluency by allowing humans and machines to play together? Boyd, Richard. "SuperHuman Education", Getting Smart, (March, 2013) Boyd, Richard and Rob Szczerba. "SuperHuman Healthcare", Intelligent Hospital Today, (September, 2012) Boyd, Richard. "Nearer the Holodeck", Armed Forces Journal, (May, 2010)
  6. 6. Algorithm Humble Origins An algorithm is a specific set of instructions for carrying out a procedure or solving a problem, usually with the requirement that the procedure terminate at some point. Specific algorithms sometimes also go by the name method, procedure or technique. The word "algorithm" is a distortion of al-Khwārizmī, a Persian mathematician who wrote an influential treatise about algebraic methods. The process of applying an algorithm to an input to obtain an output is called a computation. Euclid's algorithm for calculating the greatest common divisor (g.c.d.) of two numbers a and b in locations named A and B. al-Khwārizmī
  7. 7. The $264 Billion algorithm company
  8. 8. On September 15, 2011, beginning at 12:48:54.600, there was a time warp in the trading of Yahoo! (YHOO) stock. HFT has reached speeds faster than the speed-of-light, allowing time travel into the future. Up to 190 milliseconds into the future, or 0.19 fantaseconds is the record so far. It all happened in just over one second of trading, the evidence buried under an avalanche of about 19,000 quotes and 3,000 individual trade executions. The facts of the matter are indisputable. The Rise of the Machines
  9. 9. When Machines Read Over $200 billion in market value lost in less than 5 minutes Fear Index Spikes!
  10. 10. “Your call may be monitored or recorded”
  11. 11. The Machines Take Over
  12. 12. Time Permitting… Robot Talk Foxconn building a robot army Of one million by 2013 Autonomy (algorithms that drive) In 2020 the U.S. will have 123 million high skill high pay jobs, but only 50 million Americans qualified to do them
  13. 13. The Hunt Library at NCSU January 2013 Anything that can be automated… will be. If your job can be done by automation, the most you can ever expect to be paid is the cost of renting the machine. Don’t compete against the machines. Learn to compete with them.
  14. 14. Accelerating Technology Disappearing Jobs Prepare for Double Digit Unemployment Prepare for Double Digit Dow Returns Keep in Mind… 1800: 90% of US worked in Agriculture 1900: 41% of US worked in Agriculture 2000: 2%
  15. 15. Algorithms that Mimic NatureScheduling problem Job-shop scheduling problem (JSP)[11] Open-shop scheduling problem (OSP)[12][13] Permutation flow shop problem (PFSP)[14] Single machine total tardiness problem (SMTTP)[15] Single machine total weighted tardiness problem (SMTWTP)[16][17][18] Resource-constrained project scheduling problem (RCPSP)[19] Group-shop scheduling problem (GSP)[20] Single-machine total tardiness problem with sequence dependent setup times (SMTTPDST)[21] Multistage Flowshop Scheduling Problem (MFSP) with sequence dependent setup/changeover times[22] Vehicle routing problem Capacitated vehicle routing problem (CVRP)[23][24][25] Multi-depot vehicle routing problem (MDVRP)[26] Period vehicle routing problem (PVRP)[27] Split delivery vehicle routing problem (SDVRP)[28] Stochastic vehicle routing problem (SVRP)[29] Vehicle routing problem with pick-up and delivery (VRPPD)[30][31] Vehicle routing problem with time windows (VRPTW)[32][33][34] Time Dependent Vehicle Routing Problem with Time Windows (TDVRPTW)[35] Vehicle Routing Problem with Time Windows and Multiple Service Workers (VRPTWMS) Assignment problem Quadratic assignment problem (QAP)[36] Generalized assignment problem (GAP)[37][38] Frequency assignment problem (FAP)[39] Redundancy allocation problem (RAP)[40] [edit]Set problem Set covering problem(SCP)[41][42] Set partition problem (SPP)[43] Weight constrained graph tree partition problem (WCGTPP)[44] Arc-weighted l-cardinality tree problem (AWlCTP)[45] Multiple knapsack problem (MKP)[46] Maximum independent set problem (MIS)[47] Others Classification[48] Connection-oriented network routing[49] Connectionless network routing[50][51] Data mining [48][52][53][54] Discounted cash flows in project scheduling[55] Distributed Information Retrieval[56][57] Grid Workflow Scheduling Problem[58] Image processing[59][60] Intelligent testing system[61] System identification[62][63] Protein Folding[64][65] Power Electronic Circuit Design[66] Ant Colony Optimization
  16. 16. Energy “In the information-based economy, creative ideas are the ultimate resource” "...the first industrial revolution was the revolution of coal and steam, the second was oil. This Third Industrial Revolution is the internet of energy and is not only about energy. It involves many key sectors, from raw materials, to manufacturing, services, construction, transport, Information Technologies and even chemistry." Smart Grid
  17. 17. Evolutionary Algorithms •Polymorphism •Self-Modification •Genetic Algorithms •Neural nets
  18. 18. Target Pal “TargetPal on” “Yes, Sergeant?” “Target all potential enemy actions within 100 meters” “Targeted” “Fire on all” “Firing on 137 potential enemy actions”
  19. 19. PKM: Personal Knowledge Management (Google Reader died July 1!) PRISMATIC
  20. 20. Algorithms for Education Young Lady’s Illustrated Primer
  21. 21. Suggested Reading Before it’s too late
  22. 22. Digital Natives at home with Automation One digital native playing 36 characters at once. Talk about multi-tasking! Does this teach management of task saturation? How do we train people to do this better? Should we?.
  23. 23. Multi-boxing Where is the Serious Play Research?
  24. 24. Is it cheating? What is the policy? Do we ban it? (The way we once banned calculators and now ban smart devices from some schools?) How do we design Serious Games that teach human/machine cooperation? Where is the research? Where could this lead?
  25. 25. “Achieve the Perfect Balance Between Humans and Automation To Optimize Outcomes” -Boyd The 21st Century Imperative
  26. 26. “The future is already here, it is just unevenly distributed” -William Gibson Twitter: Metaversial
  27. 27. 2020 Vision Factory of the Future