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Increasing uptime and lowering LCOE through strategic planning

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The relationship between the OEM, supplier and operator has never been transparent in the wind industry. Operators have historically used suppliers recommended by the OEM or only purchased solely based on price, because the failure rates of the components and gearbox are not typically disclosed. Sentient knows those failure rates and has been aggregating the needs of the global operator network.

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Increasing uptime and lowering LCOE through strategic planning

  1. 1. q This webinar will be available afterwards at www.windpowerengineering.com & email q Q&A at the end of the presentation q Hashtag for this webinar: #WindWebinar Before We Start #WindWebinar
  2. 2. Introducing the Featured Speakers Aaron Soellinger Data Scientist, DigitalClone® Live for Suppliers asoellinger@sentientscience.com +1 716.364.1442 Edward Wagner Chief Digital Officer ewagner@sentientscience.com +1 718.929.9295 Dr. Raja V. Pulikollu VP, Implementations & Chief Materials Scientist rpulikollu@sentientscience.com +1 937.241.1144 #WindWebinar
  3. 3. A Little About SentientScience What Has Sentient Been Doing with Suppliers? What’s New – DigitalClone® Live for Suppliers #WindWebinar Buy on Life® and Establishing New Supply/Demand Chains Agenda
  4. 4. Sentient Science’s Webinar Series We want to hear from you! Request a Free Demo of DigitalClone® #WindWebinar
  5. 5. Uniquely Built with Operators Trusted 3rd Party #WindWebinar
  6. 6. DigitalClone® is a “Small Data” Approach to Determine Component & System Failure Rates ➡ When bearings enter failure, it happens very fast, minutes, hours, days. ➡ That fast failure causes failure in other expensivecomponents. ➡ Save the bearing and you get life extension and a larger payback than Big Data. #WindWebinar
  7. 7. Operators & Suppliers will know the earliest point in time when critical components will begin to fail & have options to extend life #WindWebinar
  8. 8. This Means You Now Have Much More Information on Asset Life, Life Extension, Financial Impact Earliest Failure Reporting andActions 18 month Rolling #WindWebinar O&M Forecasting Known Component Failure CBM Optimization Accurate Financial Planning Risk Management
  9. 9. We Are Being Recognized 2001-2016 $25M in R&D Funding From the world’s largest operator of heavy equipment #WindWebinar 2010 NASAValidation Of the game changing technology, DigitalClone® 2014 Tibbett's Award White House honors DigitalClone® technology – “decoding the Material Genome” April 2016 New Energy Pioneer Award Michael Bloomberg honors the commercial impact of DigitalClone® technology in Sentient’s 1st Clean Energy market
  10. 10. Sentient Science Family Worlds Most Tested Products Products with the Lowest Cost of Operation #WindWebinar
  11. 11. 1. DigitalClone® • Materials-Based Computational Testing (SaaS) 2. DigitalClone® Live for Operators • For Operational Management (Visibility 1) • For Asset Management (Visibility 2) • For Risk Management (Visibility 3) 3. DigitalClone® Live for Suppliers • Interface Suppliers with Operators #WindWebinar Our 3 Life Extension Services
  12. 12. Who’s in the AudienceToday • Operators • Suppliers (components, lubrications, gearboxes) • Services #WindWebinar Poll Question #1
  13. 13. DigitalClone® Live for Operators Site 1 Site 2 Site 3 Site 4 Site 5 Site 6 Site 7 Site 8 Fleet 1 Fleet health based on small data from material science #WindWebinar
  14. 14. Individual Site Worst to Best Ranking Fleet 1 Site 1 Site 2 Assets ranked by their Mean Time to Observable Damage (MTOD) #WindWebinar
  15. 15. Individual Components Worst to Best Ranking Components ranked by their Mean Time to Observable Damage (MTOD) #WindWebinar
  16. 16. 1. Ranking Fleet-wide GBX (and other) assets worst to best (“what’s not on your watch list?”) 2. List of all GBX candidates for Up-tower component replacement 3. List of all GBX candidates for de-rating to extend GBX life, calculated power levels and ROI 4. Per asset lifing predictions for any uprated GBX 5. Per Asset GBX “as-is” BOM and “to-be” simulated BOM stored in EDM/ERP 6. 5 year budgeting plan, based on data above, to estimate spend per asset and per site #WindWebinar Primary Reports on Fleet Health
  17. 17. Quantify Impact of: Lubrication change, partial de-rating, surface treatment, etc. Prognostics allows you to quantify “what-if” scenarios to extend RUL. #WindWebinar Years Until Gearbox Failure “To Be” Years Until Gearbox Failure “As Is” Case Study: Bearing Performance Comparison for Wind Turbine Gearbox
  18. 18. DigitalClone® Live Provides Operators with Forecasts for Component Replacement Over 4 Years #WindWebinar Customer XXXX Turbine GE 1.5 Total Units XXXX Year IM/HS Replacements Planetary Replacements % of Replacements 2016 60 24 3.1 2017 75 30 3.8 2018 85 34 4.3 2019 98 39.2 5.0 Total 318 127.2 16.2 Turbine GE 1.5 Total Units XXXX Year GBX Replacements % of GBX Failures 2016 100 3.6 2017 110 4.0 2018 115 4.2 2019 121 4.4 Total 446 This is what we are looking to buy from the supplier community
  19. 19. #WindWebinar
  20. 20. • Sentient introduces a new service to match supply with demand based on lifing assessments within the DigitalClone® Operator Network • Operators must approve of any information made available to the supplier community • This begins a new Partnering Program for Suppliers who want to work with Sentient Science • DigitalClone® Live for Suppliers allows operators to Buy on Life® not just price from their suppliers #WindWebinar DigitalClone® Live for Suppliers
  21. 21. Poll Question #2 #WindWebinar What is your Big Challenge? 1. Evaluating new market investments, weighing the costs to develop capabilities 2. Finding timely new leads for business 3. Obtaining the information necessary to fulfill repairs in a timely manner 4. Managing inventory levels for spare parts and spare assets to guarantee long term availability commitments
  22. 22. Introducing DigitalClone® Live for Suppliers Filters Opportunities Location Names & Detail Immediate Need Long Term Need Payoff Projections #WindWebinar
  23. 23. Introducing DigitalClone® Live for Suppliers #WindWebinar
  24. 24. Introducing DigitalClone® Live for Suppliers #WindWebinar
  25. 25. Introducing DigitalClone® Live for Suppliers #WindWebinar
  26. 26. Introducing DigitalClone® Live for Suppliers #WindWebinar
  27. 27. Introducing DigitalClone® Live for Suppliers #WindWebinar
  28. 28. Introducing DigitalClone® Live for Suppliers #WindWebinar
  29. 29. Transactions Between Suppliers and Operators #WindWebinar
  30. 30. Targeted Messaging for an Initial Offer #WindWebinar
  31. 31. Bundle Tasks for Initial Offer #WindWebinar
  32. 32. Find “My Opportunities” GE 1.5 MW ➡ Critical Bearings Repaired Uptower ➡ High Speed Shaft ➡ Intermediate Shaft #WindWebinar What Opportunities Exist?
  33. 33. Find Sales Opportunities for Your Offering • Sentient has recommended 44 Uptower Repair on the GE 1.5 SLE for High Speed Shaft bearings • Based on material- science prognostics, all of the components are within the optimal timing window for service #WindWebinar
  34. 34. Life Extension & Marketing Utilizing Life Extension Case #1: Prepare Proposal Most likely strategy: 1-3 Bearing Uptower Repair to offset cost of gearbox replacement contingent upon physical inspection Potential life extension is realized if… • Bearing replacement projected to add 110 months • Justifiable total repair price up to 9 years x 4000 mWh x $70 (avg. PPAprice) • Suggests there is a large price tunnel for negotiation #WindWebinar
  35. 35. Operators and Suppliers View Payoffs #WindWebinar
  36. 36. Analyze the Individual Opportunities • Prospective Customer Name • Type of Opportunity (Uptower Repair or Gearbox Replacement) • Location of Opportunity • Turbine and Gearbox Technology • Most Severely Damaged Component Manufacturer and Model • Number of Components Expected to be Damaged • Current Months Past Crack Initiation (t – 6.0 months) • Estimated Life Extension in Months • Date the Repair was First Required #WindWebinar
  37. 37. Download the Opportunities List #WindWebinar
  38. 38. 1. For Lead Generation - Suppliers have a prioritized lead list from DigitalClone Live of assets, components, lubricants etc.. that are needed to extend the life of operator assets – to match supply with demand and – to lower supplier cost of sales 2. To Buy on Life® - Suppliers have a trusted 3rd party in Sentient Science to advocate their life claims within the context of the customers’ gearbox 3. For Sales Forecasting - Suppliers can investigate longer term opportunities knowing current market share, and what, when and how failures will occur (18 mo window) #WindWebinar DigitalClone ® Live for Suppliers
  39. 39. For Operators: 1. Increasing Uptime & Lowering LCOE for the Operators Through Strategic Planning For Suppliers: 1. Evaluating new market investments, weighing the costs to develop capabilities 2. Finding timely new leads for business 3. Obtaining the information necessary to fulfill repairs in a timely manner 4. Managing inventory levels for spare parts and spare assets to guarantee long term availability commitments #WindWebinar Why DigitalClone® Live for Suppliers?
  40. 40. Questions? Aaron Soellinger Data Scientist, DigitalClone® Live for Suppliers asoellinger@sentientscience.com +1 716.364.1442 Edward Wagner Chief Digital Officer ewagner@sentientscience.com +1 718.929.9295 Dr. Raja V. Pulikollu VP, Implementations & Chief Materials Scientist rpulikollu@sentientscience.com +1 937.241.1144 #WindWebinar
  41. 41. q This webinar will be available at www.windpowerengineering.com & email q Tweet with hashtag #WindWebinar q Connect with Windpower Engineering & Development q Discuss this on EngineeringExchange.com Don’t Forget! #WindWebinar

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