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Top 5 Attribution Myths By Rob Cooley

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From the SMX Advanced Conference in Seattle, Washington, June 2-3, 2015. SESSION: Attribution Success In A Cross-Device World. PRESENTATION: Top 5 Attribution Myths - Given by Rob Cooley, @optimineinc - OptiMine Software, Inc., Chief Technology Officer. #SMX #13B

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Top 5 Attribution Myths By Rob Cooley

  1. 1. #SMX #13B @OptimineInc Attribution Success In A Cross-Device World Top 5 Attribution Myths
  2. 2. #SMX #13B @OptimineInc About OptiMine 2 Cloud-based cross-channel agile marketing measurement and optimization. Measure the actionable ROI of offline and online marketing investments across any channel.
  3. 3. #SMX #13B @OptimineInc
  4. 4. #SMX #13B @OptimineInc New Research Points to Measurement Challenges Social Mobile Search 38% 39% 38% Top 3 Channels Of Increased Investment Top 3 Channels With Least Measurement Confidence Marketers’ Confidence in Measurement OptiMine Research in Partnership with
  5. 5. #SMX #13B @OptimineInc Top 5 Attribution Myths •  New “cookie-less” tracking options solve the multi- device problem •  Multi-touch/Cross-device tracking simply provides the “true” value of ads and eliminates the need for complex attribution models •  Simple “fractional” attribution is better than nothing •  Adding attribution will really help “understand the customer journey” •  Multi-touch tracking is the only way to measure the value of ads
  6. 6. #SMX #13B @OptimineInc Where are the Mobile Users? 82% 50%* 60% Half driven by apps 35% of Organic Traffic * estimated
  7. 7. #SMX #13B @OptimineInc Just in the Last Nine Months Mobile- Centric
  8. 8. #SMX #13B @OptimineInc Ways Mobile Impacts the Funnel Upper Lower Branding/ Awareness/ Education Product/ Personalization Price/ Promotion/ Purchase Path
  9. 9. #SMX #13B @OptimineInc Ways Mobile Impacts the Funnel: Cross Device 9 Upper Lower Cross Device Impacts Search Mobile Display, Social Purchase
  10. 10. #SMX #13B @OptimineInc Myth #1: New “cookie-less” tracking options solve the multi-device problem •  Hyper-targeted Advertising To individuals that are logged into Facebook or Google •  Provide a count of conversion assists As long as Google/Facebook conversion tracking is used Multi-Touch Tracking IS NOT an Attribution Model! •  Understanding the customer journey Within the walled gardens of Facebook or Google but what does this really mean? ✔ ✗ Facebook Atlas Website:
  11. 11. #SMX #13B @OptimineInc Scenario A Myth #2: Multi-touch/Cross-device tracking simply provides the “true” value of ads •  Multi-touch tracking alone does not provide an answer Click based conversion “Assists” for Display ads are 25 each Impression based conversion “Assists” for Display ads are 225 and 175 respectively Modeling techniques will conclude that Display Ad 1 has caused 50 incremental conversions and Display Ad 2 caused 0! Last touch tracking under-values early funnel ads while multi-touch tracking over-values early funnel ads Path 1   Impressions   Clicks   Conv.   Paid Search   10,000   2,000   175   Path 2   Impressions   Clicks  Conv.   Display Ad 1   10,000   25   0   Paid Search   10,000   2,000   225   Scenario B Path 1   Impressions   Clicks   Conv.   Paid Search   10,000   2,000   175   Path 2   Impressions   Clicks  Conv.   Display Ad 2   10,000   25   0   Paid Search   10,000   2,000   175  
  12. 12. #SMX #13B @OptimineInc Scenario A Myth #3: Simple “fractional” attribution is better than nothing Path 1   Impressions   Clicks   Conv.   Paid Search   10,000   2,000   175   Path 2   Impressions   Clicks  Conv.   Display Ad 1   10,000   25   0   Paid Search   10,000   2,000   225   Scenario B Path 1   Impressions   Clicks   Conv.   Paid Search   10,000   2,000   175   Path 2   Impressions   Clicks  Conv.   Display Ad 2   10,000   25   0   Paid Search   10,000   2,000   175   “True” Incremental Value Last Click First Click Fractional Click Fractional Impression Display Ad 1 50 0 25 12.5 12.5 Display Ad 2 0 0 25 12.5 87.5 Error rates for fractional schemes are often just as high as last-click!
  13. 13. #SMX #13B @OptimineInc Myth #4: Attribution will really help “understand the customer journey” •  Promise is that purchase paths will reveal previously unknown insights of great value •  Reality is the vast majority of paths fall into 2 categories Short and obvious Long and unique, e.g. a million users with a million unique paths •  Paths are never complete Multiple devices Google vs. Facebook Online vs. Offline Etc…
  14. 14. #SMX #13B @OptimineInc Myth #5: Multi-touch tracking is the only way to measure the value of ads Is this ad impacting conversion in another channel? 1.  Harvard Business Review– “Do Display Ads Influence Search?” 2.  “Big Data: New Tricks for Econometrics” (Hal R. Varian – Google Chief Economist) “Inferring Causal Impact Using Bayesian Structural Time-Series Models” 1 2 •  Dominant technique for measuring traditional advertising •  Used for Media Mix modeling Econometric Time Series
  15. 15. #SMX #13B @OptimineInc Train Models with the Data you Have, Not the Data you Hope to Collect MARKETING AVAILABLE DATA RESULTS Display •  Call Center Conversion Source Codes (Last Touch?) •  Paid Search Impressions, Clicks, Cost •  GDN Impressions, Clicks Cost •  Affiliate & Shopping Network Clicks & Cost   Reduced Search Spend by 23% While Maintaining Order Volumes   Discovered Hundreds of Ads & Campaigns Mis-Valued by >50% Shopping Networks Affiliates Call Centers Top 5 US Internet Retailer
  16. 16. #SMX #13B @OptimineInc Forrester / OptiMine Marketing Measurement Maturity Benchmark Take the Benchmark Here: http://optimine1.90dm.com
  17. 17. #SMX #13B @OptimineInc Summary •  New “cookie-less” tracking options are great for targeting but don’t really solve the multi-device problem •  Multi-touch/Cross-device tracking does not eliminate the need for models •  Simple “fractional” attribution is often no better than last click •  “Understanding the customer journey” through attribution rarely leads to new insights •  Measuring the value of ads does not require Multi- touch tracking
  18. 18. #SMX #13B @OptimineInc THANK YOU! Join us @SMX East NEW YORK CITY Sept. 29th – Oct. 1st 2015

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