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Humans Rule the Machines: The Argument for Humanity By Brad Geddes


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From the #SMX Advanced Conference in Seattle, Washington June 11-13, 2018. SESSION: Machines & Humans: A SWOT Analysis. PRESENTATION: Humans Rule the Machines: The Argument for Humanity - Given by Brad Geddes, @bgtheory - AdAlysis, Co-Founder

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Humans Rule the Machines: The Argument for Humanity By Brad Geddes

  1. 1. #SMX #13B @bgTheory The Argument for Humanity Humans Rule the Machines
  2. 2. #SMX #13B @bgTheory
  3. 3. #SMX #13B @bgTheory History of Automation in PPC 1950s Machine learning pioneered 1998 NoTools Everything is manual Keyword research is minimal 2001 GoToast launches Life is manual 2002 AdWords launches Life is still mostly manual eFrontier Launches 2004- 08 Rise of the resellers Many ‘scale’ tools Marin (06) SEM Rush (08) Life is about ‘organization’ 2010 AdWords launches CPA bidding Life becomes about ads & margins 2010s Deep learning becomes possible Makes machine learning more feasible 2018 Bidding is mostly automated Machines are terrible at ads Machine learning fails as much as it gets it right Future ???
  4. 4. #SMX #13B @bgTheory What’s a Pattern that Machine Learning Can Use?
  5. 5. #SMX #13B @bgTheory When it rains in Pennsylvania All Americans go to the Movies
  6. 6. #SMX #13B @bgTheory Eating Beef Causes Lightning Strikes
  7. 7. #SMX #13B @bgTheory “The Jeopardy Effect”
  8. 8. #SMX #13B @bgTheory Humans Have Prior Knowledge Investigating Human Priors for Playing Video Games, Rachit Dubey, UC Berkley
  9. 9. #SMX #13B @bgTheory April 2018: Active Ads in SERP
  10. 10. #SMX #13B @bgTheory When Does a Term Become a Negative Keyword? The Human’s Guesses
  11. 11. #SMX #13B @bgTheory Machine Learning’s Answers for One Account Clicks > 129 & Conversions = 0 Cost > $134 & Conversions = 0 CPA = 2.13 x Target CPA
  12. 12. #SMX #13B @bgTheory Automation Danger… In the last 3 years: • 2 Delays to conversion tracking • 1 broken GA code • 2Website downtimes In each instance; automation would have added all brand keywords as negatives…
  13. 13. #SMX #13B @bgTheory Humans Are Illogical Machines are Logical
  14. 14. #SMX #13B @bgTheory The Sexy Monkey Effect Acikalin MY, Watson KK, Fitzsimons GJ, Platt ML (2018) Rhesus macaques form preferences for brand logos through sex and social status based advertising. PLoS ONE 13(2): e0193055.
  15. 15. #SMX #13B @bgTheory Yes, Humans are Very Irrational Offer Savings CTR Conv Rates 10% off Average: $19.50 8.2% 2.19% Free Shipping Average: $5.23 11.4% 2.92%
  16. 16. #SMX #13B @bgTheory Beyond Ads: Empathy is Needed for Sales • Manual signup for Goto 1998 • Automated signup for Goto 1999 • Call + insertion order for AdWords 2002 • Automated signup AdWords Select (not AdWords)2003 • One of my employees handled 40,000+ IOs / month2005 • Many sales jobs automated • Business development is mostly immune2010s
  17. 17. #SMX #13B @bgTheory What About the Math?
  18. 18. #SMX #13B @bgTheory Stat Roles (Chance to lose job to the Machine) • Follow pre-established data routines • Reporting, bidding • They should be automated Stat Assistants (66%) • Develop, collect, organize, & Interpret data to provide useful information • Understanding your data • CRO/Data Storytelling Statisticians (22%) • Formulate & apply models • Someone must ‘create’ machine learning & audit the machine Operations Research Analyst (3.5%) Stats from:The Future of Employment, How susceptible are jobs to computerization? By Oxford Martin Programme onTechnology & Employment
  19. 19. #SMX #13B @bgTheory Humans MUST Audit the Machines
  20. 20. #SMX #13B @bgTheory What are Humans Great At? Creativity?
  21. 21. #SMX #13B @bgTheory Machines Can Write Narrative Sciences algos wrote 1+ billion articles in 2015 Most box score articles (baseball, quarterly reports, etc) are written by machines
  22. 22. #SMX #13B @bgTheory Which Was Done by a Human?
  23. 23. #SMX #13B @bgTheory Most Computer Art Starts with Human Images & Ideas
  24. 24. #SMX #13B @bgTheory Auto Applied Ads for 1 Account Type (1 Account) CTR Conv. Rate ROAS % of Lines Duplicated from Site Auto Applied 4.53% 1.12% 1.12 72% HandWritten 3.71% 3.95% 3.96 0%
  25. 25. #SMX #13B @bgTheory Does ‘Rotate vs Optimize’ Always Work?
  26. 26. #SMX #13B @bgTheory Humans vs Computers in Ad Writing Creating variations of your current ads Coming up with brand new ideas for ads Determining that a test is taking place Determining when there are winning and losing ads based upon data
  27. 27. #SMX #13B @bgTheory Yes, We Have One J The Future of Humans
  28. 28. #SMX #13B @bgTheory The Rise of the Bank Teller Transformation from Information to Intelligence Workers “Learning by Doing: The Real Connection between Innovation, Wages, and Wealth” by James Bessen:
  29. 29. #SMX #13B @bgTheory Automation Creates or Shifts Job Responsibilities A Deloitte study of automation in the U.K. found that 800,000 low-skilled jobs were eliminated as the result of AI and other automation technologies. …3.5 million new jobs were created…those jobs paid on average nearly $13,000 more per year than the ones that were lost.
  30. 30. #SMX #13B @bgTheory Some Quotes from GroupM’s Rob Norman GroupM North America CEO & 30 years in the Agency World There’s no need to fear. …The work marketers do is becoming more important, not less. In this new age of assistance, l believe we’re called to be imagination workers. …it’s never been more critical to make sure consumers ask for products by brand name than it will be in an AI-powered world The most successful brands will be the ones associated with an emotion, belief, or value that resonates with audiences on a personal level
  31. 31. #SMX #13B @bgTheory You’re an Imagination Worker
  32. 32. #SMX #13B @bgTheory Who Wins? Humans • Creativity • Strategy • Storytelling • Reacting quickly to market changes • Auditing the machine • Empathy • Worst problem:Time & speed to calculations Computers • Math • Bidding • SS for ad testing • Inputting repeatable data (i.e. reports) • Conversations from human driven inputs (chat bots) • Worst problem:When data changes it doesn’t know to change assumptions
  33. 33. #SMX #13B @bgTheory Share these #SMXInsights on your social channels! #SMXInsights Computers will transform jobs, not take them Computers might increase total jobs If you have knowledge, you can leverage prior knowledge I.E. Study & Learn! Humans can change directions dramatically, quickly, and ‘on a hunch’. Computers need data. Humans are illogical. Humans have empathy. Computers are programmed. Computers will take your basic bidding, reporting, and data entry job Humans will retain creativity, strategy, and auditing the machine.
  34. 34. #SMX #13B @bgTheory Automate Your PPC To Do List • Read our blog: • Recommendation Engine: