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How to Determine Mobile ROI With Multi Touch Attribution

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How to Determine Mobile ROI With Multi Touch Attribution

  1. 1. MULTI TOUCH ATTRIBUTION AND DETERMINING ROI DAVID PEREZ CMO, CONVERTRO 1
  2. 2. 2004 2007 2010 2010 2010 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 Display Demand Side Platform Display Supply Side Platform Video Demand & Supply Side Platform Real Time Attribution Content Personalization Engine Dynamic Creative Optimization for Product Level Retargeting Rich Media Platform Premium Formats Network Video Ad Network Ad Server Display Ad Network AOL PLATFORM EXPANSION 2
  3. 3. DMP AUDIENCE MGMT & ANALYTICS MULTI-TOUCH ATTRIBUTION Video, Display, Retargeting, PPC ONE ENTERPRISE SUITE 3 Programmatic Buying Tools MARKETERS CONSUMERS
  4. 4. •Track all offline and online media •Track online & offline sales •Automated spendintegration PC, MOBILE, SOCIAL, TV, RADIO, CATALOG MEASURE USER LEVEL $17 DISPLAY $33 VIDEO SOCIAL EMAIL RETAIL $8 $42 •Algorithm assigns spend and $ value to each touch point •Top down & bottom up •Data updated every 24 hrs $100 ATTRIBUTE •Optimize media spend factoring diminishing returns •Scenario planner for “what if” mix analysis •Integrate into buying tools OPTIMAL SPEND BUYING TOOLS OPTIMIZE OUR APPROACH TO ATTRIBUTION MEASUREMENT
  5. 5. MEASURE 5
  6. 6. CASE STUDY: CROSS-DEVICE TRACKING 6 Problem: Unsure if mobile campaigns were producing results Result: Quantified how mobile campaigns were driving desktop sales •Discovered that of multi-device users were switching from mobile to desktop before converting •Optimized mobile based on overall results
  7. 7. CROSS DEVICE TRACKING Email Address = The New Cookie… User ID = Non PII Track & Sync 7
  8. 8. CROSS DEVICE TRACKING 8 •Conversion Events (Sale) –Pass User ID •Login –Pass User ID •Overlay –Pass User ID via email capture FIRST PARTY
  9. 9. CROSS DEVICE TRACKING •Convertro 2ndparty client pool device mappings •DFA Android + Gmail •Atlas Facebook 9 SECOND PARTY •Cookie sync with 3rdparty data providers that track cross-device •DrawBridge •LiveRamp •TapAd THIRD PARTY
  10. 10. ATTRIBUTE 10
  11. 11. •Problem: Bonobosrelied on last-click attribution and didn’t know which channels were more effective in driving new customers •Result: Model shifted more credit to effective channels such as Facebookand away from navigational sources 11 CASE STUDY: ATTRIBUTION MODELING
  12. 12. CONVERTRO ALGORITHM 12
  13. 13. 13 Event Chaining •Attribute events preceding sale to assess their predictive value •Addresses “new” vs. “repeat” purchases •Handles multiple steps in conversion funnel •Allows touch-points to exhibit various forms of non-linear effects like diminishing returns •Analyzes “frequency” of touch-points vs. just indicators Continuous Covariates Non-linear Effects MTA MODEL ENHANCEMENTS
  14. 14. 14 •Measures true incremental lift of paid and unpaid marketing on sales relative to base probability •Brand Equity -How much revenue would I get if I shut off all marketing spend? •What is the combined impact of frequency & recency •Estimate period over which “impressions” and “clicks” by channel/tactic decay over time Base/lift Time Decay MTA MODEL ENHANCEMENTS
  15. 15. MODEL VALIDATION •Randomly splitting user click trails into training and test sets (80/20 split) •Train a set of models on the training set •Then Run a prediction on the previously-unseen test sets (with the actual conversion events removed from the clicktrail). 15
  16. 16. OPTIMIZE 16
  17. 17. TV worked, but only on specific channels with specific creative. Convertro helped DSC identify these opportunities. With Convertro, Dollar Shave Club was able to use TV to profitably acquire customers online. 17 CASE STUDY: OPTIMIZATION
  18. 18. 18 SHIFT SPEND AT CHANNEL LEVEL
  19. 19. OPTIMIZING -TACTICAL ALLOCATIONS KEYWORDS HIDDEN 19
  20. 20. SCENARIO PLANNING 20
  21. 21. •Track all offline and online media •Track online & offline sales •Automated spendintegration PC, MOBILE, SOCIAL, TV, RADIO, CATALOG MEASURE USER LEVEL $17 DISPLAY $33 VIDEO SOCIAL EMAIL RETAIL $8 $42 •Algorithm assigns spend and $ value to each touch point •Top down & bottom up •Data updated every 24 hrs $100 ATTRIBUTE •Optimize media spend factoring diminishing returns •Scenario planner for “what if” mix analysis •Integrate into buying tools OPTIMAL SPEND BUYING TOOLS OPTIMIZE RECAP

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