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#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
3 Strategies Anyone can use to Measure the Success Beyond The Last Click
Convert The Extra Point
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Meet Mark Irvine
•  Data Scientist at Wordstream in
Boston, MA
•  Researches industry trends in PP...
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
The MLB was dominated by teams with
big pockets – who focused strongly on
buying players around a ...
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
A Focus on New Metrics
Last Season’s Stats Recruit A Recruit B Recruit C
Age 22 25 31
HR 8 8 4
RBI...
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
The 2002
Oakland A’s
won as many
games as the
New York
Yankees – with
only a third
their budget
Oa...
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Small advertisers can’t afford to compete
by looking at all the same metrics –
They need to play s...
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
New Media Playing With Old Metrics
Metric Shopping Specific Product
Keywords
Broader
“Top of the F...
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Campaigns Provide Value Beyond CPA
§  This campaign
produced a lot of
traffic – but rarely
ever c...
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Campaigns Provide Value Beyond CPA
§  Without making
major changes to
any other
campaign, we
saw ...
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Campaigns Provide Value Beyond CPA
§  And
conversions
still fell for a
few more
weeks.
100
120
14...
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Campaigns Provide Value Beyond CPA
§  In this case, not only did reducing this “poor converting”
...
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Token Funnel Slide
These searchers
Become prospects
Become customers*! *But not always
in 1 click
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Attribution is Critical
§ 89%
Of marketers
believe
attribution is
important.
Source: AdRoll
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
But Most Aren’t Thinking With It
§ But
66%
of marketers
use a single-
touch
attribution
model
Sou...
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
We all say we value attribution,
but we clearly don’t know how to.
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Attribution Hat Trick
Today’s 3 Goals:
1.  Full Funnel Insight with Conversion
Paths
2.  Choosing ...
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Follow Conversion Paths
#1:
Keep your eye on
the ball
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Different Campaigns Need to Play Different Positions
§  Some assist.
§  They create new
opportun...
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
We Need To Use Smarter Metrics
§  Conversion paths available on the Campaign, Ad Group, Keyword,
...
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Different Campaigns Need to Play Different Positions
§  These are your
assisted
conversions.
§  ...
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Valuing Campaigns For What They’re Worth
§  Assisted conversions can be integrated into your
deci...
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Choosing The Right Attribution Model
#2:
Play the Right
Game
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Not All Assists Are Worth The Same
Individual assists worth
LESS
Individual assists worth
MORE
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Not All Assists Are Worth The Same
Individual assists worth
LESS
Individual assists worth
MORE
Pro...
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Google Attribution Models
Model First Click Middle Clicks Last Click
Last Interaction
(Default for...
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Position Based
§  Position based modeling heavily weights first and last
clicks
§  Ideal when yo...
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Time Decay
§  Time Decay modeling heavily weights most recent clicks
§  Ideal when your campaign...
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Comparing Models
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Work Other Channels Into Your Model
#3:
Be a Team Player
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
We Live in A Multi-Device World
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Offline Media Creates Online Action
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
700%
Shareoftypicalactivewebs...
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Think Mobile First
0%	
  
100%	
  
200%	
  
300%	
  
400%	
  
500%	
  
600%	
  
700%	
  
Share	
  ...
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
We’re Looking At Multiple Screens – At the Same Time!
§  Source: “The New Multi-
Screen World Stu...
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
And Other Channels Have Different Immediate Returns
Channel Reaction Period
TV & Radio Minutes
Soc...
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Recap
1.  Use Conversion Paths & Assisted
Conversion metrics to fully value your
campaigns.
2.  Fi...
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
THANK YOU!
Mark Irvine, Data Scientist
Wordstream
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Convert The Extra Point: 3 Strategies Anyone Can Use To Measure the Success Beyond The Last Click By Mark Irvine

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From the SMX Advanced Conference in Seattle, Washington, June 2-3, 2015. SESSION: Attribution Success In A Cross-Device World. PRESENTATION: Convert The Extra Point: 3 Strategies Anyone Can Use To Measure the Success Beyond The Last Click - Given by Mark Irvine, @MarkIrvine89 - Wordstream, Data Scientist. #SMX #13B

Published in: Data & Analytics, Marketing

Convert The Extra Point: 3 Strategies Anyone Can Use To Measure the Success Beyond The Last Click By Mark Irvine

  1. 1. #SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89 3 Strategies Anyone can use to Measure the Success Beyond The Last Click Convert The Extra Point
  2. 2. #SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89 Meet Mark Irvine •  Data Scientist at Wordstream in Boston, MA •  Researches industry trends in PPC •  Been working Paid Search for 3 Years •  Before PPC Life, worked with NESN, ESPN, & CBS Sports
  3. 3. #SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89 The MLB was dominated by teams with big pockets – who focused strongly on buying players around a small set of metrics. The Oakland Athletics GM, Billy Beane, found himself with a small budget, a gutted team, and a radical idea. Moneyball – Baseball in 2001
  4. 4. #SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89 A Focus on New Metrics Last Season’s Stats Recruit A Recruit B Recruit C Age 22 25 31 HR 8 8 4 RBI 18 21 12 BA .313 .291 .222 On Base % .312 .321 .431 3 imaginary recruits The focus of most MLB General Managers The focus of the Oakland office
  5. 5. #SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89 The 2002 Oakland A’s won as many games as the New York Yankees – with only a third their budget Oakland A’s take 20 game winning streak
  6. 6. #SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89 Small advertisers can’t afford to compete by looking at all the same metrics – They need to play smarter.
  7. 7. #SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89 New Media Playing With Old Metrics Metric Shopping Specific Product Keywords Broader “Top of the Funnel” Keywords Click Volume 3,293 5,598 8,905 CTR 1.56% 2.96% 1.02% CPA $92 $101 $233 Conversion Rate 1.86% 3.05% 0.65% Conversions 61 170 58 Case study SMB Account: Initial Reaction: Pause /pull back campaign!
  8. 8. #SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89 Campaigns Provide Value Beyond CPA §  This campaign produced a lot of traffic – but rarely ever converted. 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 ConversionsFromAllOtherCampaigns Clicks in Poor Campaign Original Performance Original Performance
  9. 9. #SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89 Campaigns Provide Value Beyond CPA §  Without making major changes to any other campaign, we saw conversions from other campaigns begin to fall off as a result. 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 ConversionsFromAllOtherCampaigns Clicks in Poor Campaign So We Pulled Back on the Campaign Original Performance Pulling Back on Poor Performing Campaign
  10. 10. #SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89 Campaigns Provide Value Beyond CPA §  And conversions still fell for a few more weeks. 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 ConversionsFromAllOtherCampaigns Clicks in Poor Campaign So We Stopped Original Performance Pulling Back on Poor Performing Campaign Following Weeks
  11. 11. #SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89 Campaigns Provide Value Beyond CPA §  In this case, not only did reducing this “poor converting” campaign reduce direct conversions. It also: •  Reduced the search interest in other campaigns by 10%. •  Reduced the conversion rate in other search campaigns by 26%. •  Reduced the conversion rate of all website traffic by 12%. •  Total online sales suffered an 18% drop.
  12. 12. #SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89 Token Funnel Slide These searchers Become prospects Become customers*! *But not always in 1 click
  13. 13. #SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89 Attribution is Critical § 89% Of marketers believe attribution is important. Source: AdRoll
  14. 14. #SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89 But Most Aren’t Thinking With It § But 66% of marketers use a single- touch attribution model Source: AdRoll
  15. 15. #SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89 We all say we value attribution, but we clearly don’t know how to.
  16. 16. #SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89 Attribution Hat Trick Today’s 3 Goals: 1.  Full Funnel Insight with Conversion Paths 2.  Choosing the Right Attribution Model 3.  Attributing Online Action to Offline Marketing
  17. 17. #SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89 Follow Conversion Paths #1: Keep your eye on the ball
  18. 18. #SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89 Different Campaigns Need to Play Different Positions §  Some assist. §  They create new opportunities with new audiences and bring them closer to your goal. §  Some convert. §  They work with your core audience and bring them directly to your goal.
  19. 19. #SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89 We Need To Use Smarter Metrics §  Conversion paths available on the Campaign, Ad Group, Keyword, & Search Query levels!
  20. 20. #SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89 Different Campaigns Need to Play Different Positions §  These are your assisted conversions. §  They create new opportunities with new audiences and bring them closer to your goal. §  These are your direct conversions (last click). §  They work with your core audience and bring them directly to your goal.
  21. 21. #SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89 Valuing Campaigns For What They’re Worth §  Assisted conversions can be integrated into your decision metrics:
  22. 22. #SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89 Choosing The Right Attribution Model #2: Play the Right Game
  23. 23. #SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89 Not All Assists Are Worth The Same Individual assists worth LESS Individual assists worth MORE
  24. 24. #SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89 Not All Assists Are Worth The Same Individual assists worth LESS Individual assists worth MORE Products or services with a short buying cycle or low profit margins on advertising. Products or services with a long buying cycle or high profit margins on advertising.
  25. 25. #SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89 Google Attribution Models Model First Click Middle Clicks Last Click Last Interaction (Default for Google Analytics) 0% 0% 100% Last Non-Direct Click 0% 100% (All on the last non-direct click) 0% (If Direct) Last AdWords Click (Default for AdWords) 0% 100% (All on the last AdWords click) 0% (If not AdWords) First Interaction 100% 0% 0% Linear Equal Equal Equal Time Decay Least More Most Position Based 40% 20% (Split Evenly) 40% Data Driven (Available within GA Premium – soon to be rolled out further) Based on source Based on source Based on source
  26. 26. #SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89 Position Based §  Position based modeling heavily weights first and last clicks §  Ideal when your campaigns are designed to educate about your product. §  Great for when you’re trying to create a demand for your niche.
  27. 27. #SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89 Time Decay §  Time Decay modeling heavily weights most recent clicks §  Ideal when your campaigns are designed to differentiate yourself from competitors. §  Great if you have several campaigns targeting the same users while they’re evaluating their potential purchase.
  28. 28. #SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89 Comparing Models
  29. 29. #SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89 Work Other Channels Into Your Model #3: Be a Team Player
  30. 30. #SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89 We Live in A Multi-Device World
  31. 31. #SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89 Offline Media Creates Online Action 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 600% 700% Shareoftypicalactivewebsiteusers Time Website Visitors Following Regional TV Buy Active Website Visitors 2:29 – 6x active users 1:55 - Ad airs 2:02 – 6x active users 2:23 – Traffic 10% Elevated. Ad airs. 2:46 – Traffic 20% Elevated.
  32. 32. #SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89 Think Mobile First 0%   100%   200%   300%   400%   500%   600%   700%   Share  of  typical  ac/ve  website  users   Time   Website  Visitors  Following  Regional  TV  Buy   Mobile  Visitors   Tablet  Visitors   Desktop  Visitors  
  33. 33. #SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89 We’re Looking At Multiple Screens – At the Same Time! §  Source: “The New Multi- Screen World Study”, §  Think With Google, 2012 Mobile users are 3x more likely to respond to a commercial
  34. 34. #SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89 And Other Channels Have Different Immediate Returns Channel Reaction Period TV & Radio Minutes Social Hours PPC Days SEO Months
  35. 35. #SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89 Recap 1.  Use Conversion Paths & Assisted Conversion metrics to fully value your campaigns. 2.  Find an Attribution Model that aligns with your marketing goals 3.  Value other channels for their contribution
  36. 36. #SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89 THANK YOU! Mark Irvine, Data Scientist Wordstream

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