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Autonomous Vehicles and the Future of Fleet

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As a journalist covering the fleet industry, I spend a lot of time talking with experts and moderating roundtable discussions on the intersection of technology and transportation -- specifically, the rise of vehicle automation and how that might impact fleet. In this presentation, I share with you what I’ve learned in my conversations and research. ~ Sean M. Lyden
(Presented 10/13/2015 at Isuzu Commercial Truck of America's Customer Appreciation Event.)

Published in: Automotive
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Autonomous Vehicles and the Future of Fleet

  1. 1. Autonomous Vehicles and the Future of Fleet Sean M. Lyden ~ Journalist & Editor
  2. 2. Background ● CEO, Lyden Communications LLC ● Founder, Strategy + Storytelling ● Editor, Utility Fleet Professional ● Producer/ Moderator, Utility Fleet Conference 2015 @ ICUEE
  3. 3. Agenda 1. Why Care? 3 Reasons 2. Key Terms to Know 3. Top 8 Trends Driving Autonomous Vehicle Development 4. What’s the Impact on Fleet? 5. Discussion: Q & A
  4. 4. Why Care?
  5. 5. Reason #1: Safety 32,719 killed in motor vehicle crashes in the U.S. in 2013 (NHTSA) “That’s one Boeing 737 falling out of the sky each day, 5 days per week.” ~ Jennifer Haroon, Head of Business Operations, Google Self-Driving Car Project
  6. 6. Reason #1: Safety Human vs. Machine -- Which is Safer? 90 Percent of all vehicular accidents in the U.S, caused by human error -- Network Employers for Traffic Safety (NETS)
  7. 7. Reason #2: Productivity The average commute time is 25 minutes each way, just under an hour per day total ~ U.S. Department of Commerce
  8. 8. Reason #3: It’s not a matter of if, but when … ● 85 million autonomous-capable vehicles are expected to be sold annually around the world by 2035 (Navigant Research, September 2015) ● Semi-autonomous vehicles expected by 2020 ● Fully autonomous vehicles to begin entering the market 2025 (Dave Alexander, Senior Analyst, Navigant)
  9. 9. Key Terms to Know ● ADAS ● 5 Sensor (Vision) Technologies ● “Autonomous”
  10. 10. ADAS Examples: ● Backup Cameras ● Adaptive cruise control ● Lane departure warning ● Forward collision warning & avoidance ● Blind spot detection ● Park assist Advanced Driver Assistance Systems
  11. 11. Sensor (Vision) Technologies
  12. 12. Sensor Technology #1: Lidar Light Detection And Ranging Image: Popular Science
  13. 13. Sensor Technology #2: Cameras “Eyes” to Read Signs, Spot Obstacles Image: Mobileye
  14. 14. Sensor Technology #3: Sonar Ultrasonic Range Finding Image: Tesla
  15. 15. Sensor Technology #4: Radar Radio Waves to Measure Speed and Distance Image: Autobytel
  16. 16. Sensor Technology #5: V2X Vehicle-to-(Vehicle/ Pedestrian/ Infrastructure/ Everything) Image: Denso Global
  17. 17. What Exactly Does “Autonomous” Mean?
  18. 18. Levels of Autonomy Level 1: Function-Specific Automation: Involves one or more specific control functions. (Electronic stability control, adaptive cruise control, etc.) Level 2: Combined Function Automation: Involves at least two primary control functions designed to work in unison to relieve the driver of control of those functions. (Highway Autopilot -- Tesla) Level 3: Limited Self-Driving Automation (Semi-Autonomous): Driver cedes full control of all safety-critical functions under certain traffic or environmental conditions, while requiring transition back to driver control under certain conditions. (1st Generation Google Car) Level 4: Full Self-Driving Automation: Human provides destination or navigation input, but is not expected to be available for control at any time during the trip. (Google “Pod”) Source: NHTSA
  19. 19. The Top 8 Trends
  20. 20. Trend #1: Regulatory Push for ADAS ● Backup Cameras ○ Mandated for all new vehicles under 10,000 lbs. GVWR in the U.S., including buses and trucks, by May 1, 2018 ● Electronic Stability Control (ESC) ○ Mandated for all heavy trucks (exceeding 26,000 lbs. GVWR) beginning in 2017. ● Collision Avoidance Systems (CAS) ○ NTSB report released June 2015 on The Use of Forward Collision Avoidance Systems to Prevent and Mitigate Rear-End Crashes, stating that CAS are ready for widespread adoption and should become standard on all new passenger and commercial vehicles.
  21. 21. Trend #2: The Connected Vehicle WiFi standard or optional feature in 90 models for 2015 Connectivity enables … ● V2X (Denso) ● “Over-the-air” software updates (Tesla)
  22. 22. Trend #3: Real - Time, Crowd-Sourced Mapping Image: Wired/ Nokia HERE
  23. 23. Trend #4: Advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI) Teaching Vehicles to “Think,” Learn and Adapt ● Joint research center: MIT, Stanford, Toyota ($50 million total investment) -- September 2015 ● “The new center will focus on developing advanced decision-making algorithms and systems that allow vehicles to perceive and navigate their surroundings safely, without human input.”
  24. 24. Trend #5: States Enacting AV Legislation Source: National Conference of State Legislatures
  25. 25. Trend #6: Uber-ization of Transportation Vehicles On-Demand 22% of Uber users age 18 to 64, who have used the service in the past 6 months, said they were delaying or holding off buying a new car because of the car-sharing service (Magid Advisors survey released on CNBC 10/3/15) “Inefficiency” of Vehicle Ownership Car driven 2 hrs per day, sits for 22 hrs = 9% utilization Image: NewsBtc.com
  26. 26. Trend #7: Tech Companies as Automakers
  27. 27. Trend #8: Hurdles to Widespread User Acceptance Will we trust a computer to drive us? ● Most U.S. adult drivers (72 percent) would not trust self-parking vehicle technology to parallel park their vehicle ~ AAA: Park Assist Fact Sheet 2015 ● Frequency of computer “crashes” with existing technology ● Concerns about cybersecurity
  28. 28. What’s the Impact on Fleet? ● Driver training transitioning b/w levels of automation ● Risk management policies ● Vehicle ownership vs. leasing vs. on-demand ● Fleet supply chain ● Vehicle lifecycles ● Fleet analytics / KPIs ● Maintenance operations ● Fueling/ charging logistics
  29. 29. Discussion: Q&A Sean M. Lyden CEO, Lyden Communications LLC sean@lydencommunications.com www.strategyandstorytelling.com

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