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SCC2011 - Working with Policy Makers - Alaster Smith


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SCC2011 - Working with Policy Makers - Alaster Smith

  1. 1. Working with Policy Makers
  2. 2. • Hard Decisions• Appropriate responses?• Scientific uncertainty• Damned if you do …• Benefits of hindsight
  3. 3. Volcanoes and Volcanic Ash CloudsCould we have predicted?• 30 potentially active volcanic systems in Iceland• 205 historical eruptions (average 25 per 100 years),• Periodicity of volcanism in SE Iceland of ~140 years. Impact of Prevailing winds Source: BBC Frequency of explosive and partly explosive Icelandic eruptions since 850AD (per 20-years) The Eyjafjallajökull Volcano Thordarson and Larsen 2007
  4. 4. Cause and EffectKnock on effects of Globalevents/ disasters
  5. 5. UncertaintyNational Risk Register 2010 Edition Risk Matrix
  6. 6. A Version of the Policy Cycle
  7. 7. Science and Analysis on the Inside• The ‘Analytical’ Professions• Heads of Analysis Group• Departmental Heads of Profession• Departmental Chief Scientific Advisors and Directors of Analysis• Cross Government networks – CSAC and DDAN