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Efficient management of gas day operations involves matching supply to demand, keeping pressure in the pipelines relatively constant and avoiding big swings. The biggest challenge is volatile demand during the day, particularly during its final days, or end-of-day run-up, which combines the greatest volatility with little time to adjust before the end of the day.
Operators already use forecasting models to plan the overall daily delivery, but to best cope with these challenges they need the ability to plan for gas output throughout the day to match hourly swings. By utilizing tailored industry solutions and established best practices, pipeline operators can use accurate forecasting solutions to break down daily demand forecasts into hourly predictions. Using hourly forecasts instead of a flat daily projection better matches actual demand and while small deviations from the forecast will occur, an hour-by-hour system allows pipelines operators to track the accuracy of projections and more easily adjust for unanticipated changes.
These forecasts are not based only on current factors, but rely on historical analysis as well to develop a more accurate prediction of demand. Particularly during the extra-volatile end-of-day run-up, compiling and analyzing historical data on a continual basis provides a rational prediction of demand for any given conditions. Taking these existing tools and data sources, the challenge of managing the end-of-day run-up can be significantly reduced.