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Economic Indicators December 2013

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Economic Indicators and Monthly Overview December 2013

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Economic Indicators December 2013

  1. 1. Economic Indicators Last update 13.12.2013 1 | [Presentation title] | [Client Name] | [Date]
  2. 2. Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – December 2013 Europe: • Consensus December GDP forecast for WE again remained on 0,0% for 2013 and on 1,3% for 2014. • The EU industrial confidence improved again compared to last month while the consumer confidence indicator decreased slightly from its October level. • The IFO Business Climate index for Germany rose significantly, both, the assessment of the current business situation as well as the assessment of the expectations improved. • After the ECB cut the target interest rate by 0,25%points on November 7 the concern of the central bank remains on the output gap, excess liquidity and a weak recovery. US: • Consensus December GDP forecast for the US remained on 1,7% for 2013 and on 2,6% for 2014. • Q3 GDP figures were considerably revised upwards from 2,8% q-o-q to now 3,6%. Main driver were inventories, but they could translate into a drag on Q4 growth. Financial markets are trying to come to terms with the fact that monetary tapering is now likely to come sooner rather than later. Japan: • The December GDP growth forecast for Japan came down from 1,9% to 1,8% for 2013 and remained on 1,6% for 2014. • Muted wage growth remains a burden to the outlook while many other of the country’s parameters have improved during the last months. 2 | Economic Indicators |
  3. 3. Eurostat Data 3 | Economic Indicators |
  4. 4. 13 Q1 12 Q1 '11 Q1 '10 Q1 '09 Q1 '08 Q1 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 '07Q1 % Economic Indicators – GDP EU 28 GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter vs. same quarter of last year Source: Eurostat Dec 13 4 | Economic Indicators |
  5. 5. Economic Indicators – GDP EU 28 1 0,5 0 % -0,5 -1 -1,5 -2 13 Q1 12 Q1 '11 Q1 '10 Q1 '09 Q1 '08 Q1 '07Q1 -2,5 GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter Source: Eurostat Dec 13 5 | Economic Indicators |
  6. 6. Economic Indicators –EU 28 Consumer Price Index 4,5 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 13/1 12/1 11/1 10/1 09/1 0,9 08/1 % The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States. Source: Eurostat Nov 13 6 | Economic Indicators |
  7. 7. Eurozone inflation Nov.13; 0,9 ECB short-term rate Jan 15 Jul.14 Jan 14 Jul.13 Jan 13 Jul.12 Jan 12 July 11 Jan 11 Jul.10 Jan 10 Jul.09 Dec 13; 0,25 Jan 09 July 08 4,5 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 FED rate 0,0 -0,5 Jan 08 % Economic Indicators – ECB interest rate Source: ECB, FED Dec 13 7 | Economic Indicators |
  8. 8. Economic Indicators –EU 28 Unemployment Rate 12 10,9 11 % 10 9 8 7 Jan 13 Jan 12 Jan 11 Jan 10 Jan 09 Jan 08 6 Unemployment rate for EU 28 countries Source: Eurostat Dec 13 8 | Economic Indicators |
  9. 9. Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU Industrial confidence within EU 27 improved again in November. Jan 14 Jan 13 Jan 12 Jan 11 Jan 10 Jan 09 Jan 08 Jan 07 Jan 06 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 -40 The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions on production expectations, order books and stocks. Source: Eurostat Dec 13 9 | Economic Indicators |
  10. 10. Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU Consumer Confidence within EU 27 in November decreased slightly from October. 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 Jan 14 Jan 13 Jan 12 Jan 11 Jan 10 Jan 09 Jan 08 Jan 07 Jan 06 -35 The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future) together with that on the advisability of making major purchases. Source: Eurostat Dec 13 10 | Economic Indicators |
  11. 11. Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27 85 79,5 80 75 % 70 65 13Q1 12Q1 11Q1 10Q1 09Q1 08Q1 07Q1 06Q1 05Q1 04Q1 60 The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry. Source: Eurostat Nov 13 11 | Economic Indicators |
  12. 12. Ifo Data 12 | Economic Indicators |
  13. 13. Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate The Ifo World Economic climate brightens in Q4 2013 This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis. Source: IFO Nov 13 13 | Economic Indicators |
  14. 14. Economic Indicators – IFO European Economic Climate The economic climate for Europe brightens significantly in Q4 2013. This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis. Source: IFO Nov 13 14 | Economic Indicators |
  15. 15. Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis. Source: IFO Nov 13 15 | Economic Indicators |
  16. 16. Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area Source: IFO Oct 13 16 | Economic Indicators |
  17. 17. Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany Source: IFO Oct 13 17 | Economic Indicators |
  18. 18. Economic Indicators – Exchange rate $ vs € Source: IFO Dec 13 18 | Economic Indicators |
  19. 19. Economic Indicators – Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations 6 months expectations Business situation Jan 13 Jan 12 Jan 11 Jan 10 Jan 09 Jan 08 Jan 13 Jan 12 Jan 11 Jan 10 Jan 09 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 Jan 08 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany rose significantly. Assessments of the current business situation improved. Firms’ expectations regarding business developments rose to their highest level since spring 2011. The German economy looks ahead to the winter months with confidence. The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next 6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed. Source: IFO Dec 13 19 | Economic Indicators |
  20. 20. Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current Business Situation The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany rose significantly. Assessments of the current business situation improved. Firms’ expectations regarding business developments rose to their highest level since spring 2011. The German economy looks ahead to the winter months with confidence. Source: IFO Dec 13 20 | Economic Indicators |
  21. 21. Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index printing industry The business climate within the printing industry remained on -3 in November. Jan 14 Jan 13 Jan 12 Jan 11 Jan 10 Jan 09 Jan 08 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers. Source: IFO Nov 13, bundesverband druck und medien 21 | Economic Indicators |
  22. 22. Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index printing industry Business Development at German Printers – November 2013:  The assessment of the current business situation in the printing industry improved considerably compared to the last month to now 24%, the highest value since December 1991. Still it has to be taken into account that November is one of the months with the highest turnover during the year. Remains to be seen whether this positive tendency will continue.  The business climate – an indicator for the development in the next quarter – remained on -3%, the same value as in the previous month.  The business expectations for the coming 6 months worsened to -27%. The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers. Source: IFO Dec 13, bundesverband druck und medien 22 | Economic Indicators |
  23. 23. Zenith Data 23 | Economic Indicators |
  24. 24. Advertising Growth – Zenith 9/13 Press release Source: ZenithOptimedia 9/13 24 | Economic Indicators |
  25. 25. Advertising Growth – Zenith 9/13 Press release Source: ZenithOptimedia 9/13 25 | Economic Indicators |
  26. 26. Advertising Growth – Zenith 9/13 Press release Source: ZenithOptimedia 9/13 26 | Economic Indicators |
  27. 27. Advertising Growth – Zenith 9/13 Press release Source: ZenithOptimedia 9/13 27 | Economic Indicators |

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