Trends & importance of research incurrent scenario : case inEconometricsS G DeshmukhABV-Indian Institute of Information Technology &Management GwaliorFDP on“Applications of Econometrics in Management Research”21 June 2013
AcknowledgementThis presentation is based on extensivediscussions/information sharing sessions with– Prof Abid Haleem , Prof R S Deshpande, Prof S Mahendra Dev,Prof M H Suryanarayana, Prof N K Sharma, Dr Jitesh Thakkar– Thankful to numerous research scholars and facultymembers from various institutes for making us realizethe trends and importance of research in currentscenario2
Prelude..You may look at the presentationgiven by me on 14 Jun 2013 at FDP on MultivariateData Analysis for Management Research at ABV-IIITM Gwalior.Available athttp://www.slideshare.net/SanjeevDeshmukh/trends-inconnectingresearchsgd20133
Commentary..• What is the problem withmost researchers- ask vague questions and thenexpect precise answers out ofgreat path breaking research !
Speaking points..• About research..– Why research– Types of research• About some of the current trends– T1: Too much yet too little– T2: Collaboration & Connectivity– T3: Digitization of Impact of research• About econometrics..• Closing remarks..5
Why research..1..Your research credentials are looked throughI. Visibility & AccreditationsII. Knowledge creation and disseminationIII. Attracting students, researchers, faculty etc.IV. Funding, Industry support & SustainabilitySource: Haleem Abid, 2013, Enhancing research credentials,presentation for faculty at AMU6
Benchmark for Excellence as required by NAACS.No.Indicators Range & benchmarkindicatorsHigh Medium Low1 Percentage of annual allocation for library spenton purchase of journals & other library resources(CDs’ Cassettes, etc.)>15%>12 to15%>8 to11%2 Number of national / international Conferences /workshops organized per department per/yr.>3 2 13 The number of departments with UGC/ DST/FIST etc, in university>25%>10-25%<10%4 Revenue generated from consultancy per/ yr >50lac>20-50lac<20lac5 Number of MOU’s with International recognizedbodies>30 >10-30 <106 No. of Post Doctoral Fellows/ Researchassociates working a) Locals b) Outsiders>50 >10-50 <107
Benchmark for Excellence as required by NAACS.No.Indicators Range & benchmarkindicatorsHigh Medium Low7 Percentage of teachers with Ph.D. qualificationGeneral Courses Professional Courses (for ex. MD/DM for medicine and ME/MS for engg)>90-100%50-90% <30%8 National recognitions for faculty for Teaching /Research/Consultancy / Extension.>20% >5-20% 1-5%9 Percentage of courses / programmes that formallyintegrate e-learning resources from digital libraryretrieval.>80% >40-80% <40%10 No. of completed research projects/per teacher(Funded by National /International Agencies)>2 >1 <111 No. of outgoing research projects / per teacher >1 >0.5-1 <0.512 Coordinated / Collaborative Projects (National &International)>2 >1 <18
Benchmark for Excellence as required by NAACS.NoCore Indicators Range & benchmarkindicatorsHigh Medium Low13 Publications per faculty >5 >3 <314 Percentage of papers published in journalslisted in well known internationaldatabases>75% >50-75%<50%15 Average impact factor of publications >2 >1 <116 Number of papers with more than 10citations>10% 5-10% <5%17 Number of book titles per student (in thecentral library) excluding book bank>100 >80 to100<60to 8018 No. of Patents (last 5 Year) >20 <5-20 <519 Output of M. Phil & Ph.D. per faculty 5 3-4 <39
THE: World university ranking templatewww.timeshighereducation.co.uk/world-university-rankings/Sn Factor Weightage1 International outlook 7.5 %2 Research : Volume, Income,Reputation30.0 %3 Citations: Research influence 30.0 %4 Industry Income: Innovation 2.5 %5 Teaching: Learningenvironment30.0%10
http://www.timeshighereducation.co.uk/world-university-rankings/Rank University Country1 California Inst ofTechnologyUSA2 University of Oxford UK3 Stanford University USA4 Harvard University USA5 MIT USA11
Why research ..2..Objectives of Ph D Programme at IITB• The broad objectives of the Ph.D.programme is not only to keeppace with the expanding frontiersof knowledge but also to provideresearch training relevant to thepresent social and economicobjectives of the country.• The academic programme leadingto the Ph.D. degree is broadbased and involves a minimumcourse credit requirement andresearch thesis.
Typical expectations at Doctoral level• Creation and interpretation of new knowledge– Through original research, or other advanced scholarship– Of a quality to satisfy peer review and merit publication• Systematic acquisition and understanding of a substantial body ofknowledge• At the forefront of an academic discipline or area of professionalpractice• Conceptualise, design and implement a project for the generationof new knowledge, applications or understanding• Detailed understanding of applicable techniques for research andadvanced academic enquiry
Why research ..3..Phd: Ground reality• Cosmetics !• Promotion & Career Advancement• Build, “Think Tank”• Academic Recognition & Team building• R&D in Industry• Problem Solving• Export of Expertise• Learning to work out to minimize efforts to do atask/job
Reality check:Typical comments on Ph D work..• Too much theoretical content• Compartmentalized approach• Gap between what is researched and what isrequired• Not socially relevant
Driving forces & Sources of IdeasDriving Forces behindPh D• Interest• Market forces• Status• Recognition• Dream• Fire & Spark !!Sources of Ideas• Lab• Library• Computer• Internet• Industry• Mistakes done in past
Skills expected from a RS• Technical skills : Subject matter• Ability to pose questions• Ability to work independently• Ability to identify with the community• Soft skills: Communication, team work,perseverance , tenacity• Ph D : Perseverance, Hard work and Determination
Skill Set ..Hard Skills• Domain knowledge• Problem solving aptitude• Ability to use/handletechnology• Ability to analyze• Ability to synthesize• Ability to innovateSoft Skills• Ability to communicate• Ability to work in a team• Ability to have a positiveframe of mind• Ability to negotiate• Ability to handle stress
Observation:Researchers and research quality• The profile of researchers in the country is byand large not very promising• There is a disconnect between researcher andhis research• Disconnect between researcher in India andthe Global community• Not able to penetrate into high qualityoriginal/novel research as recognized by theinternational community
Current scenario characterized by ..• Collaborative & connectivity focus• Interdisciplinary push & pull• Immediacy factor & need for visibility• Suited to addressing socio-economicimperatives
Remarks..• Developments at the global level are takingplace very rapidly• Unless there is serious research, it is difficultto keep track of these developments andtranslate these outcomes into classroom• Global integration after 1990- Indianacademics also needs to be integrated
Remarks..• If somebody relies only on teaching, he/shemay not get recognition in researchcommunity l• There is no guarantee that what is applicablein USA/Europe is applicable in India or inemerging markets !• Management Faculty has to be researchactive!
Why research ..4..Some hard facts• Consideration for higher positions in goodmanagement schools not possible unless there isgood number of quality journal publications• Funding is not possible unless good publications !• Incentives based on publications!• Publications not possible unless there is research !
Remarks..• Focus is hardly on publication in the researchprogram. At times working papers (in house)are taken as research publications
Researchers and research quality• The profile of researchers in in the country is byand large not very encouraging• Disconnect between researcher in India andthe Global community• Not able to penetrate into high qualityoriginal/novel research as recognized by theinternational community• Source: Deshmukh SG, 2013, Trends in Research in current scenario: Connectresearch, 14 Jun 2013
Research project types: General patternFour types of research projects pursued for doctoralwork:Questionnaire based empirical researchAnecdotal research on some specific region or areawhich analyses the data and makes conclusions in ajournalistic styleCase studies in a specific organization and to suggestimprovements using known methodsQuantitative/mathematical models on oversimplifiedcontext of reality or extensions of work done byresearchers in developed world.
Research categoriesHighly qualitative: Anecdotal based on hear-says, stories orexperience sharing by senior managersHighly quantitative based on mathematical modeling focusing onOR like models, theorems and lemmas. At times far more complexthan the need to do that. Complex model for routine operationalproblems and vice versa. Strategic decisions still based on hunch.Case -studies based: Based on real life application of knownconcepts published in practical journals like the HBR or simulations.Statistical analysis ,hypothesis testing using SPSS,Lisrel based oninstruments such as questionnaires. Hypothesis to be tested arealmost axiomatic at times. Reproducibility of results not assured.Soft systems approach; System dynamics modelling,ISM, SWOTanalysis,SEM.The recent statistical tools have added esthetic valueto output through colorful charts diagrams, graphs which makeseven ordinary research finding look impressive.
Some research hypotheses• “If you know the outcome of your research, thenyou are not doing research”-Einstein.• Hypothesis:”The relationship between EmotionalIntelligence and job performance will be stronger forindividuals whose job involves greater amount ofinterpersonal interaction”-• Hunch says true, So says the research findings.Axiomatic hypothesis testing.(SourceVision,Vol.14,no.4,Oct.-Dec.2010,pp.250-252).• There is no new light by such like researches.• Statistical packages such as SPSS,LISREL have made as if you aredoing in-depth research l
Typical objectives of research• To gain familiarity with a phenomenon or toachieve new insights into it• To portray accurately the characteristics of aparticular individual, situation or a group• To determine the frequency with whichsomething occurs or with which it isassociated with something else• To test a hypothesis of a causal relationshipbetween variables
Motivation in Research• Desire to get a research degree alongwith its consequential benefits• Desire to face the challenges in solvingthe unsolved problems• Desire to get intellectual joy of doingsome creative work• Desire to be of service to society• Desire to get respectability
Criteria for good research• Good research is systematic• Good research is logical• Good research is empirical• Good research is replicable
34Criteria for good research• Good research is systematic- structured withspecified steps taken in specified sequence inaccordance with well-defined rules• Good research is logical: logical reasoning makesresearch more meaningful in the context ofdecision making• Good research is empirical: dealing with concretedata that provides the basis for external validity toresearch results.• Good research is replicable
Trend 1: Too much yet too little• Interconnected world: Millions of ideas gettinggenerated, developed and disseminated• There are about 50k to 200k journals in the world !• Faster publishing cycle• Web enabled submission, review and publicationprocess• Googalised research !• Shelf life of an idea has shortened considerably !
Implications• You have to update continuously• You must know the state-of-the-art• You have to be comfortable with Technology(IT)• You have to innovate continuously• Literature review ?
Trend 2 : Collaboration &connectivity !• Sharing of information• Institutionalcollaboration• Professional networks• Social networks
Implications• Sharing of information/Knowledge made easy• “Open source” paradigm• You must collaborate and connect• Your collaborator may be anywhere in theglobe available 24 x 7 basis• Power & influence of social media as abinder!
Connectivity through social media• Social media are tools for social interaction usingWeb-based and mobile technologies (Wikipedia).• These technologies, often referred to as Web 2.0 ,provide services that support users in generatingand publishing their own content.• The social interactions developed as a result ofthis activity can support engagement withcommunities of practice through networking andother co-operative and collaborative practices.
Researchgatewww.researchgate.net• A network for researchers• One can share anddisseminate• Contributions in terms ofpublications, downloads,datasets etc.40
I link therefore I am..• Pegrum, M., "I link therefore I am: networkliteracy as a core digital literacy", E-learningand Digital Media 7(4), 346-354 2010doi:10.2304/elea.2010.7.4.34641
Quality of Research based on Citation Report :Scopus /web of science• Total citations: 129• Average citations :10.75Authors Title Journal Total citation Average Citations Per yearSuresh Pvs, Rao PV,Deshmukh SGA Genetic Algorithmic Approachfor Optimization of SurfaceRoughness Prediction ModelInternationalJournal Of MachineTools &Manufacture 42(6), 675-680, 2002129 10.75
Components of research outcome• Individual Academic & Research Output• Institutional Academic & Research Output• Collaborations: How many people are we collaborating? thecollaboration index.• Share in local, regional, National and Global knowledgeresources• Patents, prototypes, new ventures• Advisory and policy making role• Conferences, seminars, Research papers, books and thenorganized course materialMeasuring this output through SCOPUS, h index, impactfactor SNIP, SJR, Google scholar, etc.44
Individual academic / research Output• Organized Course Materials, monographs• Manuals• Edited Volume• Proceedings of Invited Lectures, Seminar, Workshop,etc.• Proceedings of Conference; refereed & non-refereed• Text books, Reference Books• Technical Reports• Thesis• Patents, prototypes• Audio & Audio-Video Materials45
Institutional research output• Research papers in refereed journals• Research papers in non-refereed journals• Open access publications• Institutional journal publications• National / International Journals• Research Books• Seminar; National, International• Workshops / Training programs• Conferences; National, International• Patents filed and received• Industry projects undertaken46
Alternative measures for impact ofresearchaltmetrics is the creation and study of newmetrics based on the Social Web for analyzing,and informing scholarship. www.altmetrics.org• Supplement to traditional peer-reviewed metrics• Looks at downloads• “Crowdsource peer-review”• Many tools currently available:– Google Scholar Profile/citations– Mendeley– Total-Impact– ReaderMeter
Observation..Econometricians rarely base their analysis on a controlledexperiment. Most of the time they are dealing with non-experimental (=observational) data. Experimental data areoften collected in laboratory environmentBecause of non-experimental nature of economicrelationships some standard assumptions made in statisticsare often violated and an econometrician has to find a wayto “fix” statistical methods to fit the situation.
Observation..A major distinction is the econometricians’ concernwith disturbance term.Economic specification of consumption function:Consumption=f(Income)Econometric specification: Consumption=f(Income)+u,where u is an error term.Without the error term the relationship is exactor deterministic; with the error term it isstochastic.
50Econometrics and StatisticsRegression Models : Linear & non-LinearMultivariate AnalysisCross-section : Likelihood TheoryTime Series : ARIMANon-Parametrics
11 November 2007 51Econometrics and StatisticsNon Experimental (i.i.d) Datasample selection (self-selection)endogeneity, instrumental variablesMisspecified Models : diagnostics/ model choiceStructural Modelling : causal relationships :economic theory and insightIdentification : Structural <==> Reduced Formmoment conditionsMultivariate Time-series Analysis VAR with Non-stationary data Cointegration CVAR
Typical steps in econometricanalysisStep 1: Careful formulation of the question ofinterest. In most cases this step starts from aformal economic model and leads to aneconometric model to be estimatedStep 2: Data collectionStep 3: Model estimation, inference, predictionSource: Gujarati D, 1994, Basics of econometrics, McGraw Hill
My exposure to econometrics..• Background in OR• Taught courses such as : Probability &Statistics, Statistics for Decision making• Worked in IGIDR : a research institute set byRBI• www.igidr.ac.in54
Refer to :Parikh Kirit , Hans P. Binswanger-Mkhize &Ghosh Probal , Structural changes n Indianeconomy & its agriculture :1960-2040:presentation atSilver jubilee international conference on :Development: Success & Challenges,at IGIDR, 1-3 Dec 2012http://www.igidr.ac.in/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=27755
Issues to be addressed..What is the role of Agriculture in SustainedInclusive Double Digit Growth over the nextthree decades?How important are Irrigation, ProductivityGrowth and Trade?How is Structural Transformation progressingin India?56
Assignment to you..• In order to address these issues, what toolsand techniques are to be used?• How to model various relationships• How to estimate various parameters?• How to formulate and test the hypotheses ?• What policy experiments can be run?• What insights do we get ?57
Insights..As shared by my Ph d student*• Sometimes in life you are busy because you have reasons and othertimes you search the reasons to make yourself busy! – Research isan instrument to experience second part!• Real enjoyment lies in chasing the challenges and not only incherishing the results!• Literature is like a detergent, helps to investigate and purify SELF ateach stage!• Moving from accepting a sentence as a universal truth; to seeing it asa proposition for further exploration; to have a strong desire tocritically evaluate it as a hypothesis - dictates the advancement of anindividual in research!* Dr Jitesh Thakkar, Faculty at IIT Kgp58
Closing remarks..• Research is inevitable.• Good research brings visibility and recognition• Trends such as limited shelf life, collaborativeforces, connecting push and digitization ofresearch outcome affecting the quality andquantity of research• Econometrics: a serious discipline and offerslot of challenging problems to be addressed59
References• Waldrop M (2008) Science 2.0: Great new tool, or great risk? Scientific American.Available at: http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=science-2-point-0-great-new-tool-or-great-risk• Digital Researcher http://www.vitae.ac.uk/researchers/315321/Digital-Researcher.html• Cann, A., Dimitriou, K., Hooley, T., "Social Media : A guide for researchers",(February), 2011http://www.rin.ac.uk/our-work/communicating-and-disseminating-research/social-media-guide-researchers• Gujarati D , Essentials of Econometrics, McGraw Hill, 2004,• iGoogle http://www.google.com/ig• Google Reader http://www.google.com/reader60
Thank email@example.comVisit me www.slideshare.net/SanjeevDeshmukh/61