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Ev mobility outlook 2018

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Background
India, the largest market for two-wheelers and the fifth-biggest market for passenger vehicles (cars, vans, and utility vehicles), has a negligible presence of electric vehicles at this point. The government has expressed intent to push manufactures to get into mass manufacturing of electric vehicles to meet its 2030 target in its bid to reduce dependence on imported fuel and control environmental pollution.

India launched its National Electric Mobility Mission Plan 2020 (NEMMP) in 2013 to ease dependence on foreign oil imports. The National Electric Mobility Mission Plan 2020, notified by the Department of Heavy Industry, Ministry of Heavy Industries and Public Enterprises, Government of India seeks to enhance national energy security, mitigate adverse environmental impacts from road transport vehicles and boost domestic manufacturing capabilities for Electric Vehicles (EVs). It is envisaged that EVs are expected to play a significant role in India’s transition to a low-carbon eco-system.

Government of India has formulated a scheme, titled Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of (Hybrid &) Electric Vehicles in India, under the National Electric Mobility Mission Plan 2020, to encourage the progressive induction of reliable, affordable and efficient electric and hybrid vehicles. The scheme is proposed to be implemented till 2020, wherein it is intended to support the hybrid/EVs market development and its manufacturing eco-system to achieve self-sustenance.
About EV
Electric vehicle (EV) is a mode of transport system that utilizes electricity to power their motors, instead of using conventional vehicle fuels. There are two basic types of EVs: all-electric vehicles (AEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).

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Ev mobility outlook 2018

  1. 1. bicon BUSINESS & INDUSTRIAL CONSULTANTS Bangalore | Kolkata | Mumbai Electric Vehicle Outlook
  2. 2. bicon BUSINESS & INDUSTRIAL CONSULTANTS Proprietary & Confidential Page 2 of 11 Background India, the largest market for two-wheelers and the fifth-biggest market for passenger vehicles (cars, vans, and utility vehicles), has a negligible presence of electric vehicles at this point. The government has expressed intent to push manufactures to get into mass manufacturing of electric vehicles to meet its 2030 target in its bid to reduce dependence on imported fuel and control environmental pollution. India launched its National Electric Mobility Mission Plan 2020 (NEMMP) in 2013 to ease dependence on foreign oil imports. The National Electric Mobility Mission Plan 2020, notified by the Department of Heavy Industry, Ministry of Heavy Industries and Public Enterprises, Government of India seeks to enhance national energy security, mitigate adverse environmental impacts from road transport vehicles and boost domestic manufacturing capabilities for Electric Vehicles (EVs). It is envisaged that EVs are expected to play a significant role in India’s transition to a low-carbon eco-system. Government of India has formulated a scheme, titled Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of (Hybrid &) Electric Vehicles in India, under the National Electric Mobility Mission Plan 2020, to encourage the progressive induction of reliable, affordable and efficient electric and hybrid vehicles. The scheme is proposed to be implemented till 2020, wherein it is intended to support the hybrid/EVs market development and its manufacturing eco-system to achieve self-sustenance. About EV Electric vehicle (EV) is a mode of transport system that utilizes electricity to power their motors, instead of using conventional vehicle fuels. There are two basic types of EVs: all- electric vehicles (AEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). EVs (also known as plug-in electric vehicles) derive all or part of their power from electricity supplied by the electric grid. They include AEVs and PHEVs. AEVs (all-electric vehicles) are powered by one or more electric motors. They receive electricity by plugging into the grid and store it in batteries. They consume no petroleum- based fuel and produce no tailpipe emissions. AEVs include Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs). PHEVs (plug-in hybrid electric vehicles) use batteries to power an electric motor, plug into the electric grid to charge, and use a petroleum-based or alternative fuel to power the internal combustion engine. Some types of PHEVs are also called extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs).
  3. 3. bicon BUSINESS & INDUSTRIAL CONSULTANTS Proprietary & Confidential Page 3 of 11 When an electric vehicle is plugged into an outside source, it receives electricity from the power grid, or from stationary renewable energy sources. Although fossil fuel-burning methods of electricity production may contribute to air pollution, electric vehicles themselves are considered zero-emission vehicles because their motors produce no exhaust or tailpipe emissions. When an electric vehicle is paired with a non-polluting method of electricity generation, the entire electrification process can be considered no-emission. Figure 1: Electric car stock (AEV and PHEV) from 2005-16 (thousands) Source: Global EV outlook 2017, IEA Action Plan The plan, which initially envisaged selling 6 to 7 million electric vehicles (EVs) in the Indian market by 2020 expanded to include the goal of electrifying almost all vehicles in the country by 2030. Currently there four government bodies (Ministry of Heavy Industries & Public Enterprises, Ministry of Science & Technology, Ministry of New & Renewable Energy, and Energy Efficiency Services Limited) that are involved in achieving India’s EV vision, and the CERC guidelines are certain to encourage others to join in. The Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) of India has recently identified three business models for electric vehicle charging within the framework of the Electricity Act of 2003 and will soon release draft guidelines on this issue. 1.37 1.69 2.15 4.54 7.47 16.81 64.58 182.64 388.07 715.39 1262.61 2014.2 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Electric car stock (BEV and PHEV) from 2005-16 (thousands)
  4. 4. bicon BUSINESS & INDUSTRIAL CONSULTANTS Proprietary & Confidential Page 4 of 11 Under the Electricity Act, an individual or a private institution cannot sell electricity unless one obtains a distribution license from the respective state electricity regulatory commission to do so. By releasing guidelines for how to conduct business in the EV charging sector, the Indian government is unlocking a key barrier to the diffusion of EVs. Challenges As the government moves ahead with its target of having just electric vehicles in the country by 2030, a number of regulatory issues need to be streamlined and settled. The Electricity Act allows power sale only by power distribution companies. The Central Electricity Regulatory Commission has suggested that entities entering the charging business can join hands with distribution companies or set up battery-swapping facilities. This will not require amendment of the Electricity Act. But for any other model of setting up the charging infrastructure to sell power, an amendment to the Act will be needed. There are issues that the tariffs that charging company will pay to a DISCOM and customers will pay to a charging company using the facility. Clarity is needed on any differential rates of electricity for different vehicles and also if these rates will vary during the day, based on the demand pattern on the grid. Another problem is whether transporting batteries could be allowed independent of vehicles, as this needed to conform to the guidelines for transporting hazardous goods if battery swapping is to be promoted. Electrical Vehicles will use batteries which store Electricity and the wastes generated from disposal of batteries will lead to polluting the environment through release of toxic metals. Challenges lies with the eco-friendly disposal of the worn out batteries. First, state electricity distribution companies (DISCOMs) can build charging stations with separate tariffs under a special category for electric vehicles. Second, a company can partner with DISCOMs through a public-private- partnership franchisee model, acting as an agent of the DISCOM without needing a new license. Third, a company can operate via a battery swapping model: the company collects and charges batteries and leases them out to vehicle owners.
  5. 5. bicon BUSINESS & INDUSTRIAL CONSULTANTS Proprietary & Confidential Page 5 of 11 For EV charging infrastructure, the government must also find a way to create demand for this technology. In the drive to execute the EV mission, the government is cognizant of the fact that it must create a robust EV components manufacturing industry within India and avoid replicating the import dependency. India is required to set up large lithium-ion batteries (LiBs) manufacturing plants to become a global player in electric vehicles (EVs) technology market. At present lithium-ion battery is not manufactured in India and therefore the country has to depend on imports from Japan or China. To become a global player in electric vehicles technology must need to set up large lithium-ion batteries manufacturing plants in India. Suzuki Motor Corp. announced that it would form a joint venture with Denso Corp. and Toshiba Corp. to produce lithium-ion batteries for EVs in India. EV- Insights The two main electric car markets are China and the United States. United States has the largest car stock in 2016 where China was with 336 thousand new electric cars registered in 2016. Figure 2: Country wise EV Stock from 2005-16 (thousands) Source: Global EV outlook 2017, IEA European countries accounted for 215 thousand electric car sales. Both globally and in the European Union, the electric car market is still concentrated in a limited number of countries. Globally, 95% of electric car sales are taking place in just ten countries: China, the United States, Japan, Canada and the six leading European countries. 66.41 1125.4 201.72 165.62 21.32 510.17 22.62 279.8 301.31 56.51 182.9 1537.99 189.84 Country wise EV Stock from 2005-16 (thousands) Electric car stock (BEV and PHEV) by country, 2005-16 (thousands)
  6. 6. bicon BUSINESS & INDUSTRIAL CONSULTANTS Proprietary & Confidential Page 6 of 11 Among these, Norway was the global leader, with a 29% market share, the result of a favourable policy environment in recent years comprising a large range of incentives, from tax breaks and exemptions to waivers on road tolls and ferry fees. Norway was followed by the Netherlands, with a 6.4% electric car market share, and Sweden with a 3.4% share. China, France and the United Kingdom all had electric car market shares close to 1.5%. Figure 3: Electric cars, market share by country, 2016 Source: Global EV outlook 2017, IEA Note: The total market share is calculated on the basis of the total market size of all the countries covered in this report. The number of electric cars in the world accelerated last year. China, US and Europe accounted for more than 90% of electric vehicle sales last year, with China the single biggest market, according to research by the International Energy Agency (IEA). 0.59 1.37 1.46 0.73 0.02 0.59 0.34 6.39 28.76 3.41 1.41 0.91 0.52 Electric cars (battery electric and plug-in hybrid), market share by country, 2016 Market Share by Country in 2016
  7. 7. bicon BUSINESS & INDUSTRIAL CONSULTANTS Proprietary & Confidential Page 7 of 11 Figure 4: Growth of EV sales globally Data Source: IEA Nearly a third of new cars sold in Norway are electric, the highest proportion worldwide, followed by UK and Japan. Critical component of EV Battery cell is the most critical component of EV. It constitutes of 60% of the total pack size. Total cost of the battery pack (along with the cell and non-cell components) has reduced from 730$/kWh in 2011 to 270$/kWh in 2016. Figure 5: Declining battery costs and rising energy density 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Rise in Electric Vehicle Sales Globally (thousands) Others Germany Netherlands Japan United Kingdom Norway United States China 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 BatteryEnergyDensity(Wh/L) BatteryCost(USD/KWh) Battery Cost (USD/KWh) Battery Energy Density (Wh/Lt)
  8. 8. bicon BUSINESS & INDUSTRIAL CONSULTANTS Proprietary & Confidential Page 8 of 11 Comparing the electric vehicle with a conventional internal combustion engine vehicle reveals the scale of the challenge: Batteries would need to be at least 5 times cheaper for EVs to reach cost parity with a conventional vehicle. EVs’ operating costs are lower and therefore a capital cost premium may be accepted by consumers. The specific energies of the batteries that is their capacity for storing energy per kilogram of weight is still 1 percent of the specific energy of gasoline. Unless there is a major breakthrough, batteries will continue to limit the driving range of electric vehicles to some 250- 300 kilometers between charges. Current Happenings Charging stations are critical to the mass adoption of electric vehicles and various companies are stepping forward. One of them is Tata Power Delhi Distribution Ltd, which is planning to invest INR 100 crore to set up 1,000 charging stations across Delhi. They have already set up five electric vehicle charging stations in Delhi. They are planning to set up 1,000 electric charging stations in Delhi in the next five years with an investment of INR 100 crore. The government, keen to promote electric mobility in the country, may make its officers give up diesel- and petrol-run vehicles in favour of electric cars in a phased manner. Recently Energy Efficiency Services Ltd (EESL), a PSU company under Govt. of India (GOI) floated a tender to procure 10,000 electric cars to replace five lakh petrol and diesel cars used by the government over three to four years. Tata Motors quoted the lowest in the bidding process on September 28, at INR 10.16 lakh per car without goods and service tax (GST) and Mahindra, which was the second lowest bidder quoted for around INR 13 lakh each. Then EESL offers 40% of e-car order to Mahindra if it matches with Tata bid and Mahindra agree to match with the lowest bid price quoted by Tata Motors. So, Mahindra and Tata Motors are the only two companies selected by Energy EESL to supply 500 electric cars in the first phase. As per the order, EESL will source 150 electric vehicles from Mahindra & Mahindra in phase I and 250 vehicles from Tata Motors. The delivery date of electric vehicles for phase I is 30 November, 2017. The purchase orders for supply of 9,500 electric vehicles in phase II will be issued on completion of phase I deliveries.
  9. 9. bicon BUSINESS & INDUSTRIAL CONSULTANTS Proprietary & Confidential Page 9 of 11 The goods and services tax (GST) has placed electric vehicles in the 12 percent band. This is less than the 28 percent tax on sales of petrol and diesel vehicles, but the government should consider a short-term tax holiday to further stimulate consumer interest. Large Indian corporate like BHEL, PGCIL and Vedanta Group have shown interest in making EVs, setting up charging stations and Some of the global automotive players like Tesla Inc. and Toyota Motor Corp. have shown interest in the Indian EV market. Conclusion In the next 10 to 20 years the electric car market will likely to visualise transition from early deployment to mass market adoption. New electric car registrations in 2016 set a new record. In 2016, the number of publicly accessible charging points reached 320 000 units globally, representing a 72% growth since 2015. Industry-wide battery cost estimates declined by approximately 34% annually between 2010 and 2016. In India EVs are expected to become affordable in future. To foster the stimuli of rapid enhancement and faster adoption of EV, Schemes and Policies should incline in line with the market growth. Favourable government policies can further help in improving the affordability of EVs. Government needs to come up with clear policy on EV charging infrastructure related investment and tariff policy for EVs to promote EV adoption. Power sector stakeholders (regulators and utilities) however need to act proactively to enable grid integration of EVs. The electric grid must be made resilient enough to absorb the variable loads from both renewable as well as EVs. On the Manufacturing side – creation of regulatory framework for imposing all cars manufacturing company to produce certain percentage of their annual production as electric vehicle i.e. EV Manufacturing Obligation. Implementing a single policy comprising a large range of incentives, tax Rebates, and exemptions to road tolls fees. Fiscal incentives for EVs manufacturers to make more profit vice-verse it will make the cars more affordable for consumers as domestic production sales and costs come down. Also non-fiscal incentives, like easier registration and preferred electricity tariffs, to support fiscal incentives would further speed EV adoption. Introduction of Zero-Emission Certificates (ZEC). Owners of the conventional (fuel fired) vehicles will be required to off-set the emissions with the E-vehicle owners, considering the LCA (Life Cycle Assessment) and the usage of E-Vehicle.
  10. 10. bicon BUSINESS & INDUSTRIAL CONSULTANTS Proprietary & Confidential Page 10 of 11 Feebate scheme to rewards buyers of EV cars and imposition of more compliance to those who purchase Fuel cars. Feebates are rebates for efficient new vehicles paid for by fees on inefficient ones. EVs represent a big challenge for nation as they can disrupt the whole power system, and is inevitable for a sustainable future. It comes up with a basket of opportunities for Academia, Regulators and Manufacturing industries. What we have visualised till now is only a fraction of this behemoth revolution and we are hoping for the best outcome is yet to arrive.
  11. 11. bicon BUSINESS & INDUSTRIAL CONSULTANTS Proprietary & Confidential Page 11 of 11 bicon BUSINESS & INDUSTRIAL CONSULTANTS Bangalore | Kolkata | Mumbai Contact Us: Email ID: info@biconconsultants.com Phone: +91-990-3037-609 +91-7978-025-064 Follow Us: Facebook | Twitter | Linkedin For more information, please visit www.biconconsultants.com ©2011 Bicon Consultants Pvt. Ltd. Proprietary and confidential. Do not distribute without written permission.

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