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2017 swcs weather observers presentation

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2017 swcs weather observers presentation

  1. 1. USING “WEATHER” TO DISCUSS “CLIMATE”- THE WEATHER OBSERVERS PROGRAM Duane Friend University of Illinois Extension
  2. 2. MOST PEOPLE CARE ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE BUT DON’T WANT TO TALK ABOUT IT • Confirmation bias- Already strong beliefs • Theory of Persuasion- People take cues from how good they think the source is • Cognitive Dissonance- If shown previous beliefs may not be correct, it is taken as a personal insult http://www.ecology.com/2013/01/07/why-doesnt-public-respond-to-climate-change/
  3. 3. WEATHER OBSERVERS Duane Friend University of Illinois Extension Weather Observers Duane Friend University of Illinois Extension
  4. 4. WHAT IS COVERED • Why we have seasons • The Composition of the Atmosphere • Heat and Temperature
  5. 5. WHAT IS COVERED • Air Pressure and Winds (Why does most of our storms come from the west?) • Clouds and Precipitation (What do different clouds mean for future weather?) • Climate and Weather (How do scientists predict future climate, and which predictions will directly affect me?)
  6. 6. SUNLIGHT TRAVELS AS A WAVE • There is an infinite range of wavelengths of sunlight (solar energy). • The human eye only can detect a small range of this energy- the visible spectrum.
  7. 7. Courtesy NASA
  8. 8. (millionths of a meter)
  9. 9. Majority of Sunlight Reaching Earth’s Surface is in the Visible Spectrum Incoming Outgoing Courtesy NASA
  10. 10. GREENHOUSE GASES • Gases like carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxides have the ability to absorb heat that is trying to escape into space. • The heat is released by the gases, but a lot of it is sent back towards earth instead of heading out to space.
  11. 11. WHEN THE HEAT IS RELEASED, IT GOES OUT IN ALL DIRECTIONS
  12. 12. WHAT HAPPENS IF GREENHOUSE GASES INCREASE? • Increases of Greenhouse gases have increased the Greenhouse effect, leading to warming of the lower atmosphere. • Cause and Effect- we’ll talk about this more when we discuss Climate Change……
  13. 13. MIDWEST: INCREASING TREND IN TEMPERATURE Winter Spring Summer Fall Slide courtesy Dr. Don Wuebbles, University of Illinois
  14. 14. 14 Observed Increasing Trend in U.S. Precipitation Both in Decadal trends and 1991-2011 relative to 1901-1960 Based on NOAA NCDC
  15. 15. MIDWEST: INCREASING TREND IN PRECIPITATION Especially Spring and Summer
  16. 16. OBSERVATIONS SHOW MAJOR INCREASE IN VERY HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENTS OVER LAST 50 YEARS Slide courtesy Dr. Don Wuebbles, University of Illinois
  17. 17. EXTREME PRECIPITATION IN MIDWEST 17 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 1895 1910 1925 1940 1955 1970 1985 2000 ExtremePrecipitationIndex Year Blue = 1-yr storms, highest value: 1998 Red = 5-yr storms, highest value: 2004
  18. 18. http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/sectors/agriculture
  19. 19. EXTREME PRECIPITATION DOES NOT ALWAYS CORRELATE TO BIG INCREASES IN STREAMBANK EROSION
  20. 20. "OUR WORK SUGGESTS THAT RIVER CHANNELS MAY SET THE SPEED LIMIT ON EROSION," SAID DOUGLAS J. JEROLMACK, ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR IN PENN'S DEPARTMENT OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE IN THE SCHOOL OF ARTS & SCIENCES. "WE SHOWED THAT THE FORCES OF THE BIGGEST FLOOD EVENTS WERE REALLY ONLY INCREMENTALLY LARGER THAN THE MODERATE EVENTS BECAUSE RIVER CHANNELS ADJUST THEIR SIZE TO BE CLOSE TO THE SO-CALLED 'THRESHOLD OF MOTION, READ MORE AT: HTTPS://PHYS.ORG/NEWS/2016-05-EXTREME-RAINFALL- DOESNT-EROSION.HTML#JCP
  21. 21. PROJECTED CHANGES IN KEY CLIMATE VARIABLES AFFECTING AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY- CHANGE IN NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE DRY DAYS http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/sectors/agriculture
  22. 22. INCREASED NEED FOR RISK MANAGEMENT OPTIONS TO REDUCE EROSION SUCH AS COVER CROPS
  23. 23. HAS THIS COURSE CHANGED YOUR BELIEFS IN CLIMATE CHANGE? • Yes, it is much more imminent to address. I thought it was a political battle. • Very much so- • Yes. I knew very little about climate change before, and (now) I have confidence in knowing what I am explaining to others. • No (??)

Editor's Notes

  • Map: Difference in precipitation (%) between 1991-2011 and 1901-1960. Most areas have experienced wetter conditions.

    Graphs: Average precipitation differences from the 1901-1960 average by decade for each region. The far right bar is for the single year of 2011. The number above each graph is the average precipitation change for 1991-2011 compared to the historical base period of 1901-1960.
  • Annual precipitation has exhibited a general upward trend since the early 20th Century. It was wetter than normal during the 1990s, drier than normal during the early 2000s, and generally wetter than normal during the last few years. The wettest single year on record was 1973.
  • Observed increase in 1 year, 5 year, and 20 year storme vents (this is based on 2 day precip.). What was the 1 in 20 year event in the Midwest 30 years ago is now the 1 in 13 year event.

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