12 24-2016 -- market thoughts of week ending: Peace on Earth...

1. @UY
Peace on Earth... Holiday Wish.
Published on December 24, 2016
Market Thoughts of the Week Ending 12-24-2016
Peace on Earth… Best Holiday Wishes to all. Let us all pray for peace and forgiveness for our
sins and stop violence on humanity. But the killing goes on as we have witnessed in Berlin Xmas
Market, terrorists bent on killing rams truck into the holiday crowds. And just recently in July we
saw in Nice, France shockingly similar truck attack. Be aware of your surroundings during the
holidays. Be vigilant. Live to create Peace for the future.
It appears that US-China trade war is unavoidable, according to many. So get ready for the
global economic warfare. Meanwhile Mongolia, China’s neighbor, may be heading into
economic storm in 2017 and perhaps certain default unless China comes to aid. But in USA,
there is an interesting, somewhat confusing market indicator in gold is trending… Or not? Gold
price has been falling steadily for several months. Is this an indicator of better economy in the
future for USA? But for many more young people are coming back home to live with their
parents as housing price in out of reach and wages not keeping up with the real living costs.
Success and financial independence is what we want. One way to find success and be
independent on your own term is to develop and maintain “Hip-Pocket" Skills: be a life-long
student, keep things simple, and continue to hone your skill. (Indra Nooyi, PepsiCo CEO) So
fine tune your "Hip-Pocket" skills for financial freedom and success in your endeavors. Best
wishes.
There is good news! There may be 100% successful vaccine for the Ebola virus according to a
study published Friday in U.K.-based medical journal The Lancet. Thank God. Hopefully, soon,
one of the most lethal known pathogens will be wiped off from human suffering. Indeed a good
news.
Market closed Friday week at: DOW-19,933.81; S&P-2,263.79; NASDAQ-5,462.69; Gold-
$1,135.50; Oil-$53.25; and 10-Year Bond-2.543%...

2. Here are the highlights of the week:
1. Christmas Prayer. Peace on Earth: Holiday Wish. Let’s all pray for
peace on earth… "I admit I have done wrong, and that I am a sinner. I am sorry for my sin.
Please forgive me, and give me a new beginning. I pray to You, Lord of my heart. Help me now
to live with love and compassion. Lord, give this earth new beginning. Peace please. Amen!”
2. Berlin killing: 12 Deadat Xmas Market. The prime suspect in
the Berlin truck attack arrived in Europe five years ago, at the leading edge of a wave of nearly
uncontrolled immigration. That influx, culminating in the 2015 mass arrival of refugees, has
exposed the region to security threats that will linger for decades. The suspect, a 24-year-old
Tunisian named Anis Amri, was killed in a shootout with police in Milan early Friday. The truck
that crashed into a Berlin Christmas market, killing at least 12 people, December 20, 2016, and at
least 48 more were wounded when the truck tore through the crowd Monday, smashing wooden
stalls and crushing victims. The scene was so reminiscent of July's deadly attack in the French
Riviera city of Nice. The Berlin attack meant "our worst fears have come true," according to a
conservative German lawmaker. The U.S. condemned an apparent "terrorist attack", while
President-elect Donald Trump blamed "Islamist terrorists" for a "slaughter" of Christians.
3. Mongolia Default in 2017? Without urgent foreign funding
Mongolia may default. Ulaanbaatar, facing flat growth and a budget deficit of 20% of GDP in
2016, is in desperate need of foreign lending to meet debt repayment obligations next year and
Beijing may be the only country willing to provide a soft loan, according to political risk
consultancy Eurasia. While China began talking on the matter, negotiations have now adjourned
following the Dalai Lama's recent visit to Mongolia. Since its 1951 annexation, Tibet has been
viewed by China as part of the mainland and Beijing believes the Dalai Lama is seeking to
divide the Himalayan region. Mongolian PM Jargaltulga Erdenebat's has been reaching out to
other countries for help but the outlook appears grim. The United Arab Emirates, Singapore,
Russia, and India are among the other countries that Mongolia has contacted but they are not
likely to offer favorable lending terms. Pray for Mongolia.

3. 4. China-US Trade War Looming… Carl
Icahn, billionaire, a longtime close friend to Donald Trump now acting as incoming
administration’s advisor spoke on trade regulation and economy. But the most important thing
may not be what he said explicitly, but what he implied about the market risk of a trade war with
China under Trump. Most telling is how Icahn said, "If you're asking me am I concerned about
the market on the short term… Obviously, if you get into a trade war with China, sooner or later,
I think we're going to have to come to grips with that, maybe it's better to do it sooner, but that's
not my decision at all..." To be sure, Icahn said he is not "involved" in the transition team's
China trade policy discussions. However, the fact that he, as one of Trump's closest confidants,
repeatedly brought up the stock market risk of a trade war with China is telling. Icahn, however,
believes an aggressive trade policy with the Asian country is likely being considered by the
president-elect. Icahn also understands that the China trade war is coming, and we might as well
do it sooner and "get it over with". Who chickens out first?
5. Gold Longest Run of Losses. Looming China-US trade war
aside, gold is headed for its longest run of losses in more than a year. Expectations of a faster
U.S. interest rate tightening cycle spur investors to sell. Prices are set for a seventh weekly
decline, the longest stretch since August 2015, after the U.S. Federal Reserve indicated it may
raise interest rates three times in 2017. Holdings in ETF backed by bullion fell a 30th day as
investors abandoned the metal which suffers in a higher-yield environment. 2016 is ending on a
low note for the gold market. But things may well change on the other side of New Year. We’ll
see soon enough. Holdings in ETFs are down 3.9 tons at 1,779 tons, extending the longest run of
declines since September 2004. In other precious metals: Silver was little changed at $15.8143
an ounce. Platinum rose 0.3% to $907.85 an ounce. Palladium climbed 0.4%, its first advance in
eight sessions, to $658.65 an ounce.
6. More Young Americans Live with Their Parents. More
young people are returning to their childhood homes than in decades. Trulia analyst found that
nearly 40% of young people were living with their parents, siblings or other relatives in
2015. That’s the largest share of young people living at home since 1940. What’s more, the
percentage of those between 18 and 24 living with family has been on the rise since 2005. As a
result, there’s less demand for housing than expected for millennials, now the largest generation
in U.S. history. While the adults under age 30 have jumped by 5 million since 2006, the number

4. of households inched up by just 200,000, according to the Harvard Joint Center for Housing
Studies. Experts say rising rents and tough mortgage lending standards are to blame. Census data
also shows that married younger Americans are having children later in life than previous
generation. While young people won’t be permanently sidelined from the housing market, their
home-ownership rates will likely hover close to historic lows for the indefinite future, one expert
told the Journal. Be good to your parents.
7. Key to Success: “Hip-Pocket" Skill. Indra Nooyi, CEO at
PepsiCo, has a reputation for making simple the complex, whatever the issue is. To get ahead, it
helps to have a "hip-pocket skill," something you're known for being great at and can develop
even further, according to Nooyi. As practice, "I became a student, and now I could explain, in
very simple terms, what needed to be done." Nooyi recommends professionals find a specific
talent they have and hone it. Your "hip-pocket" skill could be communication, and or a facility
for learning new things. As long as it's truly useful and relatively rare, it will serve you well. So
be a life-long student, keep things simple, and continue to hone your skill.
8. Ebola Vaccine 100% Effective in Trials. Good news for the
humanity. An Ebola vaccine has demonstrated 100% efficacy in a large-scale human trial,
according to a study published Friday in U.K.-based medical journal The Lancet. The vaccine
successfully prevented nearly 6,000 people from contracting the disease, deemed by the World
Health Organization as "one of the most lethal known pathogens". The trial took place in 2015
and was led by WHO, working alongside with Guinea's Ministry of Health, Medicins sans
Frontiers and the Norwegian Institute of Public Health, with other international
collaborators. Ebola had left a devastating legacy according to Dr. Sakoba Keita, coordinator of
Guinea's Ebola response. Now she is proud in helping to develop a vaccine that will prevent
other nations from enduring Ebola disaster. Good news for all mankind. Amen.
Next Week: Merry Christmas and Happy New Year. Tuesday- Consumer confidence data, and
Wednsday-pending home sales data will be reported.

5. ~ S. Vincent Shin
www.linkedin.com/in/vshin
Image credits to: vShin, Getty image, AP Photo, Reuters, CNBC...
Note: Starting January 1, 2017 my weekly publication will be named as “7-7 Market Highlights,”
Week Ending 1-7-2017… Mahalo for your continued reading, comment, “like” note, and
sharing my publication. Mahalo Nui Loa.