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                                                Rob McMillan, EVP & Founder
                                                               April 17, 2012
Speakers




Rob McMillan                         Tony Correia                                                  Paul Mabray
EVP & Founder                        Agricultural Property Valuation Expert                        Chief Strategy Officer, Digital Guru
Silicon Valley Bank, Wine Division   The Correia Company                                           VinTank




                                       Tony Correia and Paul Mabray are independent third parties and are not affiliated with SVB Financial Group.




                              Twitter: #SVBWine
Remember 2008?




      Twitter: #SVBWine
The Good news: There is a good reason to drink …




              Twitter: #SVBWine
The Bad News - Unemployment



                             US Unemployment Rate (Household Survey)

          7.5

          7.0

          6.5
Percent




          6.0

          5.5

          5.0

          4.5

          4.0

          3.5

          3.0
             1998   1999   2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005     2006   2007   2008




                              Twitter: #SVBWine
The Bad News - Consumer Confidence



                                Consumer Confidence
     160


     140


     120


     100


      80


      60


      40


      20




Source: Bloomberg


                    Twitter: #SVBWine
The Bad News - Retail Sales



                             Monthly Change in Retail Sales

                 3


                 2


                 1
Percent Change




                 0


                 -1


                 -2


                 -3


                 -4




                      Twitter: #SVBWine Bloomberg
                                   Source:
The Bad News: Equities Crash



                                       Equities Collapse
     16,000                                                                                   1800


                                                                                              1600
     14,000

                                                                                              1400

     12,000
                                                                                              1200


     10,000                                                                                   1000


                                                                                              800
      8,000

                                                                                              600

      6,000                           DJIA      S&P
                                                                                              400


      4,000                                                                                   200
          1997   1998   1999   2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008




                        Twitter: #SVBWine
How Bad is It Going to Get?




              Twitter: #SVBWine
How Long Will It Last?:
Home Prices to Median Family Income

           House prices bottom Q4 2010 – Q1 2011




                                                   2008 2009   2010   2011




             Twitter: #SVBWine
2008 Officially in the Rear View Mirror

Steering Macro Economic Currents
for 2012-13


          Twitter: #SVBWine
Months of Supply in Existing Homes




              Twitter: #SVBWine
Housing Values Finding a Bottom




              Twitter: #SVBWine
Growth in Retail Sales Positive Since Q4 2009




              Twitter: #SVBWine
Layoffs Dropping & Job Openings Increasing




Source: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/


                                             Twitter: #SVBWine
The Hidden Tax: National Average Retail Gas Prices




Regular Grade, As Surveyed By The AAA Motor Club


                                        Twitter: #SVBWine
Borrowing Rates Edging Higher for Almost All EU

Interest Rates on 10-year Government Bonds




                 Twitter: #SVBWine
Eurozone: Exchange Rates – Euro Getting Weaker




             Twitter: #SVBWine
How Much Dry Powder is Left for the ECB?




                  ECB Now $1 Trillion Larger
                       Than the Fed.




              Twitter: #SVBWine
Inventory




       Twitter: #SVBWine
2010 Wineries Short on Inventory By Bottle Price

       40.0%


       35.0%


       30.0%


       25.0%


       20.0%
                                                               2010 Short Inventory

       15.0%


       10.0%


        5.0%


        0.0%




Source: Silicon Valley Bank Proprietary Research



                                           Twitter: #SVBWine
2010-2011 Change in Wineries Short on Inventory

       40.0%


       35.0%


       30.0%


       25.0%


       20.0%
                                                               2011 Short Inventory
                                                               2010 Short Inventory
       15.0%


       10.0%


        5.0%


        0.0%




Source: Silicon Valley Bank Proprietary Research



                                           Twitter: #SVBWine
2011 Inventory Positions Sorted by Region

              45.0%

              40.0%

              35.0%

              30.0%

              25.0%

              20.0%

              15.0%                                            Excess Inventory
                                                               Not Enough Inventory
              10.0%

               5.0%

               0.0%




Source: Silicon Valley Bank Proprietary Research



                                           Twitter: #SVBWine
Net Inventory Levels

        40.0%



        30.0%



        20.0%



        10.0%



         0.0%
                 Washington      Santa       Sierra     Oregon   Lodi County   Napa      Paso      Sonoma   Lake County Mid-Coastal
                   State        Barbara     Foothills                                 Robles/SLO                            CA
       -10.0%



       -20.0%



       -30.0%



       -40.0%

Source: Silicon Valley Bank Proprietary Research



                                           Twitter: #SVBWine
California Bulk Wine Positions




Source: Turrentine Brokerage



                               Twitter: #SVBWine
Premium Planted Acreage on West Coast



                                           30%                                                                                                                                                                                                                               140,000

                                                                                                                                                                 25%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             120,000
                                           25%
                                                                                                  22%
             Non-Bearing Acres as a % of




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             100,000
                                           20%




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Total Planted Acres
                 Total Planted Acres




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             80,000
                                           15%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             60,000
                                                                             14%
                                           10%                                                                                12%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             40,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                           5% 5%
                                           5%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   6.3%                                      20,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         4.7%         4.6%
                                           0%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                0
                                                 1983
                                                        1984
                                                               1985
                                                                      1986
                                                                             1987
                                                                                    1988
                                                                                           1989
                                                                                                  1990
                                                                                                         1991
                                                                                                                1992
                                                                                                                       1993
                                                                                                                              1994
                                                                                                                                     1995
                                                                                                                                            1996
                                                                                                                                                   1997
                                                                                                                                                          1998
                                                                                                                                                                 1999
                                                                                                                                                                        2000
                                                                                                                                                                               2001
                                                                                                                                                                                      2002
                                                                                                                                                                                             2003
                                                                                                                                                                                                    2004
                                                                                                                                                                                                           2005
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2006
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2007
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2011P
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2012P
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2013P
                                                                        Non-Bearing Acres (vineyards planted within last 3 years and not yet bearing fruit)
                                                                        Bearing Acres (vineyards more than 3 years old, bearing fruit)
                                                                        Non-Bearing Acres as a % of Total Planted Acres


Source: Ag Stats Service, Ian Malone &



                                                                                    Twitter: #SVBWine
LT Grape Prices Continue Upward March

                Napa Cabernet                                                          Central Coast
                                                 Napa Merlot   Sonoma Pinot Noir
                 Sauvignon                                                         (SB & SLO) Pinot Noir



                                                90th-10th
                                                Percentile
                                                Spread


                                                Weighted
                                                Average




                      +5.1%                     +2.1%            +2.7%                 +6.8%
                       ’10-’11 ∆
                     in Wtd. Avg.

Source: Ag Stats Service, Ian Malone &



                                         Twitter: #SVBWine
LT Grape Prices Continue Upward March
                   Napa Cabernet                                        Central Coast
                                               Sonoma Chardonnay                                           Oregon Pinot Noir
                      Franc                                        (SB & SLO) Chardonnay




                                               90th-10th
                                               Percentile
                                               Spread


                                               Weighted
                                               Average                                                                                                           $2,470




                                                                                           1991
                                                                                                  1993
                                                                                                         1995
                                                                                                                1997
                                                                                                                       1999
                                                                                                                              2001
                                                                                                                                     2003
                                                                                                                                            2005
                                                                                                                                                   2007
                                                                                                                                                          2009
                                                                                                                                                                 2011
                         -0.9%                       -0.2%             -3.4%                                                  ?
                         ’10-’11 ∆
                       in Wtd. Avg.

Source: Ag Stats Service, Ian Malone &



                                         Twitter: #SVBWine
Varietal Views of Inventory




Sources: Ciatti Brokerage, Turrentine Wine Brokerage, Silicon Valley Bank Proprietary Research



                                            Twitter: #SVBWine
Price Changes in N. Coast Bulk Cabernet

       $33.00


       $31.00


       $29.00


       $27.00
                                                                                                      41% Increase

       $25.00


       $23.00


       $21.00


       $19.00
                                                                                                    Napa Cabernet
       $17.00                                                                                       Sonoma Cabernet


       $15.00
                4/1/2010       7/1/2010    10/1/2010   1/1/2011   4/1/2011   7/1/2011   10/1/2011

Source: Turrentine Brokerage



                                          Twitter: #SVBWine
Grape Pricing and Purchase
Expectations, and the Impact
on Land Values


        Twitter: #SVBWine
2012 Volume Purchase Expectations By Case Size

       80.0%


       70.0%


       60.0%


       50.0%


       40.0%                                                                                                     More Tonnage
                                                                                                                 Less Tonnage
       30.0%


       20.0%


       10.0%


        0.0%
                  1 -2,500    2,501 - 5,000    5,001 -   10,001 -   25,001 -   50,001 -   100,001 -   >250,000
                                               10,000     25,000     50,000    100,000     250,000

Source: Silicon Valley Bank Proprietary Research



                                              Twitter: #SVBWine
2012 Grape Pricing Expectation Price Point

       80.0%



       70.0%



       60.0%



       50.0%


                                                                                                Pay More
       40.0%
                                                                                                Pay Equal
                                                                                                Pay Less
       30.0%



       20.0%



       10.0%



        0.0%
                      < $15             $15 - $20   $21 - $30   $31 - $40   $41 - $70   > $70

Source: Silicon Valley Bank Proprietary Research



                                           Twitter: #SVBWine
Sonoma County


                                                                District 3 Values vs. Grape Prices
                                                      $150                                              $3,500
                                                                                         Pinot Noir
                         Vineyard Values, Thousands


                                                                                                        $3,000
                                                      $120




                                                                                                                 Average Grape Price
                                                                                                        $2,500
                                                      $90
                                                                 Cabernet
                                                                                                        $2,000
                                                      $60
                                                                                     Chardonnay         $1,500

                                                      $30
                                                                                                        $1,000

                                                       $0                                               $500
                                                             1994 96   98 2000 02   04   06   08   10



Sources: CASS Grape Crush Reports, Annual Land Value Trend Surveys, ASFMRA


                                                              Twitter: #SVBWine
Napa County



                                                               District 4 Values vs. Grape Prices
                                                    $350                                              $5,000
                       Vineyard Values, Thousands



                                                    $300
                                                                       Cabernet




                                                                                                               Average Grape Price
                                                                                                      $4,000
                                                    $250

                                                    $200                     Merlot
                                                                                                      $3,000
                                                    $150

                                                    $100
                                                                                                      $2,000
                                                    $50
                                                                                       Chardonnay
                                                     $0                                               $1,000
                                                           1994 96   98 2000 02   04   06   08   10




Sources: CASS Grape Crush Reports, Annual Land Value Trend Surveys, ASFMRA


                                                             Twitter: #SVBWine
Monterey County


                                                      District 7 Values vs. Grape Prices
                                                                                                  $2,000
                                    $37,000               Chard. $
                                                          Cab. Sauv. $
                                                                                                  $1,750
                                    $32,000               Pinot Noir $




                                                                                                           Average Grape Prices
                                                                                                  $1,500
                  Vineyard Values




                                    $27,000

                                    $22,000
                                                                                                  $1,250

                                    $17,000
                                                                                                  $1,000
                                    $12,000
                                                                                                  $750
                                     $7,000

                                     $2,000                                                       $500
                                              1994   96    98   2000     02   04   06   08   10

Sources: CASS Grape Crush Reports, Annual Land Value Trend Surveys, ASFMRA


                                                Twitter: #SVBWine
San Luis Obispo & Santa Barbara Counties



                                                         District 8 Values vs. Grape Prices

                                                            Chard. $                             $3,000
                                            $52,000
                                                            Pinot Noir $




                                                                                                          Average Grap Price
                                                                                                 $2,500
                          Vineyard Values




                                            $42,000         Cab. Sauv. $


                                            $32,000                                              $2,000


                                            $22,000                                              $1,500


                                            $12,000                                              $1,000


                                             $2,000                                              $500
                                                      1994 96   98 2000 02   04   06   08   10




Sources: CASS Grape Crush Reports, Annual Land Value Trend Surveys, ASFMRA


                                                  Twitter: #SVBWine
Sales Growth & Financial
Condition of Wineries



       Twitter: #SVBWine
Winery Sales Growth Expectations in 2012

       35.0%


       30.0%


       25.0%


       20.0%


       15.0%


       10.0%


        5.0%


        0.0%




Source: Silicon Valley Bank Proprietary Research



                                           Twitter: #SVBWine
Reported Financial Condition of Wineries in 2011

       40.0%


       35.0%


       30.0%


       25.0%


       20.0%


       15.0%


       10.0%


        5.0%
                 7% Very Weak or Worse

        0.0%




Source: Silicon Valley Bank Proprietary Research



                                           Twitter: #SVBWine
Reported Financial Condition By Case Size

       100.0%


        90.0%


        80.0%


        70.0%
                                                                                                                   Rock Solid
        60.0%                                                                                                      Very Strong
                                                                                                                   Strong
        50.0%                                                                                                      Good
                                                                                                                   Slightly Weak
        40.0%
                                                                                                                   Very Weak
                                                                                                                   On Life Support
        30.0%
                                                                                                                   Dead

        20.0%


        10.0%


          0.0%
                   1 -2,500    2,501 - 5,000     5,001 -   10,001 -   25,001 -   50,001 -   100,001 -   >250,000
                                                 10,000     25,000     50,000    100,000     250,000

Source: Silicon Valley Bank Proprietary Research



                                               Twitter: #SVBWine
Winery Financial Condition

                                                               Gross Margins Squeezed




                                                                      Sales Up




Source: Silicon Valley Bank Proprietary Research



                                           Twitter: #SVBWine
Demographic Shifts




       Twitter: #SVBWine
Wine Consumption 1980-2010

        Median Age of Boomers: 35 in 1991




Source: Wine Institute



                         Twitter: #SVBWine
Window of Affluence: 35-54 Affluent Consumers

                                 86,000


                                 85,000


                                 84,000


                                 83,000
       (Millions of Consumers)




                                 82,000


                                 81,000


                                 80,000


                                 79,000


                                 78,000


                                 77,000


                                 76,000
                                            2001     2003       2005     2007     2009     2011     2013     2015     2017     2019
                                   35-54   83,500   84,800     84,700   84,900   84,100   83,000   81,800   80,900   80,100   79,550

Source: Unity Marketing


                                                             Twitter: #SVBWine
Reported Wine Sales by Cohorts

       45.0%


       40.0%


       35.0%


       30.0%


       25.0%


                                                                                      41.5%
       20.0%


       15.0%                                               29.8%


       10.0%

                             14.3%                                                                          14.4%
        5.0%


        0.0%
                  Millennial (21-34 year olds)     Gen X (35-46 year olds)   Boomers (47-64 year olds)   Matures (65+)

Source: Silicon Valley Bank Proprietary Research



                                            Twitter: #SVBWine
Wealth of Cohorts as of 2009

       $300,000




       $250,000
                                                                $263,716



       $200,000




       $150,000                                                            $170,494




       $100,000




        $50,000

                                                      $39,601
                               $3,662
             $-
                             Millennials              Gen-X     Boomers    Matures

Source: U.S. Census Bureau



                                           Twitter: #SVBWine
Current Cohort Sales Sorted by Avg. Bottle Price

       50.0%


       45.0%


       40.0%


       35.0%


       30.0%
                                                                                               Millennial (21-34 year olds)
       25.0%                                                                                   Gen X     (35-46 year olds)
                                                                                               Boomers     (47-64 year olds)
       20.0%                                                                                   Matures    (65+)


       15.0%


       10.0%


        5.0%


        0.0%
                     < $15         $15 - $20       $21 - $30   $31 - $40   $41 - $70   > $70

Source: Silicon Valley Bank Proprietary Research



                                           Twitter: #SVBWine
The Digital World & The 5th
Column



       Twitter: #SVBWine
General Perception of Social Media By Case Size

       90.0%


       80.0%


       70.0%


       60.0%


       50.0%

                                                                                                                 Negative
       40.0%                                                                                                     Positive/Active


       30.0%


       20.0%


       10.0%


        0.0%
                  1 -2,500    2,501 - 5,000    5,001 -   10,001 -   25,001 -   50,001 -   100,001 -   >250,000
                                               10,000     25,000     50,000    100,000     250,000

Source: Silicon Valley Bank Proprietary Research



                                              Twitter: #SVBWine
The 5th Column


• The 5th Column consists of disparate companies with online solutions
  to help sell and market wines such as:
  • E-commerce sites (Wine.com, Winelibrary.com)
  • Flash Sale Sites (Lot18, WineAccess, Cinderellawine, Winestillsoldout.com)
  • Consumer information sites (Winesearcher.com, Cellartracker.com)
  • Mobile applications (HelloVino, Drync, Vivino)
  • Software solutions (Vin65.com, Shipcompliant, Vinespring.com, Vinovisit.com)
  • Social Media Solutions (Social-Candy.com, VinTank)




                    Twitter: #SVBWine
Challenges For the 5th Column


• For software solutions for the wine industry:
  • Total addressable audience: ~ 7500 wineries in the US
  • Very little digital acumen
  • Fragmented
  • Behave differently by region
  • Slow adoption
  • Under resourced to manage any of the 5th column players
  • Primarily focused on tasting room sales, wine club or traditional 3 Tier sales
  • Salary rates for digital employees is at least 40% below comparable positions
    45-90 miles away
  • Many Investors are gun shy of the category



                     Twitter: #SVBWine
Challenges For the 5th Column

• For Online Sales Companies
  • Regulation
  • Margin erosion
  • Cost of carrying inventory
  • Total wines available in the US (150K+ annually)
  • Consumer behavior
  • Cost and challenges with shipping
  • Winery resistance
  • Wholesaler and retailer friction
  • Limited nature of luxury wines thus stunting the ability to scale
  • Investors WERE gun shy of the category (Lot18 recently received over $40M in
    funding)




                      Twitter: #SVBWine
The Future of the 5th Column


• Pandora’s Box is now open and success is obtainable
  • The past failures have left a roadmap for success to new contenders
  • The recession has forced wineries to explore alternative solutions in the digital
    sphere
  • Winery management is getting younger and more open to digital
  • The juggernaut of digital is pressing on the wine industry
  • Silicon Valley (only 90 miles away from CA North Coast) grows ever closer to
    the wine industry




                    Twitter: #SVBWine
Bottle Pricing




        Twitter: #SVBWine
Reported Bottle Pricing Expectations




Source: Silicon Valley Bank Proprietary Research



                                           Twitter: #SVBWine
2012 Bottle Price Expectations by Avg. Price Point

       70.0%



       60.0%



       50.0%



       40.0%
                                                                                               Reduce Prices
                                                                                               Hold Prices
       30.0%                                                                                   Increase Prices



       20.0%



       10.0%



        0.0%
                      < $15           $15 - $20    $21 - $30   $31 - $40   $41 - $70   > $70

Source: Silicon Valley Bank Proprietary Research



                                           Twitter: #SVBWine
Net Bottle Price Change By Average Price Point

        50.0%




        40.0%




        30.0%
                                                               < $15
                                                               $15 - $20
                                                               $21 - $30
        20.0%
                                                               $31 - $40
                                                               $41 - $70
                                                               > $70
        10.0%




         0.0%




       -10.0%

Source: Silicon Valley Bank Proprietary Research



                                           Twitter: #SVBWine
Summary


• Domestic wine inventories evolving into shortage. Will last for some
  time.
• 
  Increasing prices for grapes and bulk juice
• 
  Increasing difficulty for négociants to find wine of consistent quality
  for the price point
• Fewer private labels
•  ore transitions, sales and mergers taking place than at any time in
  M
  memory
• ontinuation of new mergers among wholesalers
  C
• 
  Increasing plantings to feed the looming grape shortage
• Modest retail bottle price increases




                   Twitter: #SVBWine
Summary Continued


• 
  Increasing difficulty for third-party marketers who’ve sold with a
  culture of discounting
• The 5th Column is a viable and improving channel.
• he wealth divide is really more of a demographic divide.
  T
• Millennials are the future. Gen-X is now. Boomers largest but will start
  to decline
• The euro will enter a weakening trend versus the U.S. dollar
• 
  Imports gain a larger market share
• The U.S. economy will gradually positively evolve with more middle
  class consumers jumping on the moving train
• 2012 sales growth rates of 7-11 percent, a slight drop from the prior
  year



                   Twitter: #SVBWine
Disclosures


 This material, including without limitation to the statistical information herein, is provided for
 informational purposes only. The material is based in part on information from third-party sources
 that we believe to be reliable, but which have not been independently verified by us and for this
 reason we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete. The information should not
 be viewed as tax, investment, legal or other advice nor is it to be relied on in making an investment
 or other decision. You should obtain relevant and specific professional advice before making any
 investment decision. Nothing relating to the material should be construed as a solicitation, offer or
 recommendation to acquire or dispose of any investment or to engage in any other transaction.

 Foreign exchange transactions can be highly risky, and losses may occur in short periods of time if
 there is an adverse movement of exchange rates. Exchange rates can be highly volatile and are
 impacted by numerous economic, political and social factors, as well as supply and demand and
 governmental intervention, control and adjustments. Investments in financial instruments carry
 significant risk, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Before entering any
 foreign exchange transaction, you should obtain advice from your own tax, financial, legal and other
 advisors, and only make investment decisions on the basis of your own objectives, experience and
 resources. Opinions expressed are our opinions as of the date of this content only. The material is
 based upon information which we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or
 complete, and it should not be relied upon as such.

 ©2012 SVB Financial Group. All rights reserved. Silicon Valley Bank is a member of FDIC and
 Federal Reserve System. SVB>, SVB>Find a way, SVB Financial Group, and Silicon Valley Bank
 are registered trademarks. B_WD-12-12064. Rev. 04-12-12.




                         Twitter: #SVBWine
Twitter: #SVBWine

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Silicon Valley Bank Annual State of the Wine Industry 2012-2013 Presentation

  • 1. Join the conversation on Twitter by following @SVB_Financial and using #SVBWine Rob McMillan, EVP & Founder April 17, 2012
  • 2. Speakers Rob McMillan Tony Correia Paul Mabray EVP & Founder Agricultural Property Valuation Expert Chief Strategy Officer, Digital Guru Silicon Valley Bank, Wine Division The Correia Company VinTank Tony Correia and Paul Mabray are independent third parties and are not affiliated with SVB Financial Group. Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 3. Remember 2008? Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 4. The Good news: There is a good reason to drink … Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 5. The Bad News - Unemployment US Unemployment Rate (Household Survey) 7.5 7.0 6.5 Percent 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 6. The Bad News - Consumer Confidence Consumer Confidence 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Source: Bloomberg Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 7. The Bad News - Retail Sales Monthly Change in Retail Sales 3 2 1 Percent Change 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 Twitter: #SVBWine Bloomberg Source:
  • 8. The Bad News: Equities Crash Equities Collapse 16,000 1800 1600 14,000 1400 12,000 1200 10,000 1000 800 8,000 600 6,000 DJIA S&P 400 4,000 200 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 9. How Bad is It Going to Get? Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 10. How Long Will It Last?: Home Prices to Median Family Income House prices bottom Q4 2010 – Q1 2011 2008 2009 2010 2011 Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 11. 2008 Officially in the Rear View Mirror Steering Macro Economic Currents for 2012-13 Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 12. Months of Supply in Existing Homes Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 13. Housing Values Finding a Bottom Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 14. Growth in Retail Sales Positive Since Q4 2009 Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 15. Layoffs Dropping & Job Openings Increasing Source: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/ Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 16. The Hidden Tax: National Average Retail Gas Prices Regular Grade, As Surveyed By The AAA Motor Club Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 17. Borrowing Rates Edging Higher for Almost All EU Interest Rates on 10-year Government Bonds Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 18. Eurozone: Exchange Rates – Euro Getting Weaker Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 19. How Much Dry Powder is Left for the ECB? ECB Now $1 Trillion Larger Than the Fed. Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 20. Inventory Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 21. 2010 Wineries Short on Inventory By Bottle Price 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 2010 Short Inventory 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Source: Silicon Valley Bank Proprietary Research Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 22. 2010-2011 Change in Wineries Short on Inventory 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 2011 Short Inventory 2010 Short Inventory 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Source: Silicon Valley Bank Proprietary Research Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 23. 2011 Inventory Positions Sorted by Region 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% Excess Inventory Not Enough Inventory 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Source: Silicon Valley Bank Proprietary Research Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 24. Net Inventory Levels 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Washington Santa Sierra Oregon Lodi County Napa Paso Sonoma Lake County Mid-Coastal State Barbara Foothills Robles/SLO CA -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% -40.0% Source: Silicon Valley Bank Proprietary Research Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 25. California Bulk Wine Positions Source: Turrentine Brokerage Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 26. Premium Planted Acreage on West Coast 30% 140,000 25% 120,000 25% 22% Non-Bearing Acres as a % of 100,000 20% Total Planted Acres Total Planted Acres 80,000 15% 60,000 14% 10% 12% 40,000 5% 5% 5% 6.3% 20,000 4.7% 4.6% 0% 0 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011P 2012P 2013P Non-Bearing Acres (vineyards planted within last 3 years and not yet bearing fruit) Bearing Acres (vineyards more than 3 years old, bearing fruit) Non-Bearing Acres as a % of Total Planted Acres Source: Ag Stats Service, Ian Malone & Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 27. LT Grape Prices Continue Upward March Napa Cabernet Central Coast Napa Merlot Sonoma Pinot Noir Sauvignon (SB & SLO) Pinot Noir 90th-10th Percentile Spread Weighted Average +5.1% +2.1% +2.7% +6.8% ’10-’11 ∆ in Wtd. Avg. Source: Ag Stats Service, Ian Malone & Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 28. LT Grape Prices Continue Upward March Napa Cabernet Central Coast Sonoma Chardonnay Oregon Pinot Noir Franc (SB & SLO) Chardonnay 90th-10th Percentile Spread Weighted Average $2,470 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 -0.9% -0.2% -3.4% ? ’10-’11 ∆ in Wtd. Avg. Source: Ag Stats Service, Ian Malone & Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 29. Varietal Views of Inventory Sources: Ciatti Brokerage, Turrentine Wine Brokerage, Silicon Valley Bank Proprietary Research Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 30. Price Changes in N. Coast Bulk Cabernet $33.00 $31.00 $29.00 $27.00 41% Increase $25.00 $23.00 $21.00 $19.00 Napa Cabernet $17.00 Sonoma Cabernet $15.00 4/1/2010 7/1/2010 10/1/2010 1/1/2011 4/1/2011 7/1/2011 10/1/2011 Source: Turrentine Brokerage Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 31. Grape Pricing and Purchase Expectations, and the Impact on Land Values Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 32. 2012 Volume Purchase Expectations By Case Size 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% More Tonnage Less Tonnage 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 1 -2,500 2,501 - 5,000 5,001 - 10,001 - 25,001 - 50,001 - 100,001 - >250,000 10,000 25,000 50,000 100,000 250,000 Source: Silicon Valley Bank Proprietary Research Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 33. 2012 Grape Pricing Expectation Price Point 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% Pay More 40.0% Pay Equal Pay Less 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% < $15 $15 - $20 $21 - $30 $31 - $40 $41 - $70 > $70 Source: Silicon Valley Bank Proprietary Research Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 34. Sonoma County District 3 Values vs. Grape Prices $150 $3,500 Pinot Noir Vineyard Values, Thousands $3,000 $120 Average Grape Price $2,500 $90 Cabernet $2,000 $60 Chardonnay $1,500 $30 $1,000 $0 $500 1994 96 98 2000 02 04 06 08 10 Sources: CASS Grape Crush Reports, Annual Land Value Trend Surveys, ASFMRA Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 35. Napa County District 4 Values vs. Grape Prices $350 $5,000 Vineyard Values, Thousands $300 Cabernet Average Grape Price $4,000 $250 $200 Merlot $3,000 $150 $100 $2,000 $50 Chardonnay $0 $1,000 1994 96 98 2000 02 04 06 08 10 Sources: CASS Grape Crush Reports, Annual Land Value Trend Surveys, ASFMRA Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 36. Monterey County District 7 Values vs. Grape Prices $2,000 $37,000 Chard. $ Cab. Sauv. $ $1,750 $32,000 Pinot Noir $ Average Grape Prices $1,500 Vineyard Values $27,000 $22,000 $1,250 $17,000 $1,000 $12,000 $750 $7,000 $2,000 $500 1994 96 98 2000 02 04 06 08 10 Sources: CASS Grape Crush Reports, Annual Land Value Trend Surveys, ASFMRA Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 37. San Luis Obispo & Santa Barbara Counties District 8 Values vs. Grape Prices Chard. $ $3,000 $52,000 Pinot Noir $ Average Grap Price $2,500 Vineyard Values $42,000 Cab. Sauv. $ $32,000 $2,000 $22,000 $1,500 $12,000 $1,000 $2,000 $500 1994 96 98 2000 02 04 06 08 10 Sources: CASS Grape Crush Reports, Annual Land Value Trend Surveys, ASFMRA Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 38. Sales Growth & Financial Condition of Wineries Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 39. Winery Sales Growth Expectations in 2012 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Source: Silicon Valley Bank Proprietary Research Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 40. Reported Financial Condition of Wineries in 2011 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 7% Very Weak or Worse 0.0% Source: Silicon Valley Bank Proprietary Research Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 41. Reported Financial Condition By Case Size 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% Rock Solid 60.0% Very Strong Strong 50.0% Good Slightly Weak 40.0% Very Weak On Life Support 30.0% Dead 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 1 -2,500 2,501 - 5,000 5,001 - 10,001 - 25,001 - 50,001 - 100,001 - >250,000 10,000 25,000 50,000 100,000 250,000 Source: Silicon Valley Bank Proprietary Research Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 42. Winery Financial Condition Gross Margins Squeezed Sales Up Source: Silicon Valley Bank Proprietary Research Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 43. Demographic Shifts Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 44. Wine Consumption 1980-2010 Median Age of Boomers: 35 in 1991 Source: Wine Institute Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 45. Window of Affluence: 35-54 Affluent Consumers 86,000 85,000 84,000 83,000 (Millions of Consumers) 82,000 81,000 80,000 79,000 78,000 77,000 76,000 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 35-54 83,500 84,800 84,700 84,900 84,100 83,000 81,800 80,900 80,100 79,550 Source: Unity Marketing Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 46. Reported Wine Sales by Cohorts 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 41.5% 20.0% 15.0% 29.8% 10.0% 14.3% 14.4% 5.0% 0.0% Millennial (21-34 year olds) Gen X (35-46 year olds) Boomers (47-64 year olds) Matures (65+) Source: Silicon Valley Bank Proprietary Research Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 47. Wealth of Cohorts as of 2009 $300,000 $250,000 $263,716 $200,000 $150,000 $170,494 $100,000 $50,000 $39,601 $3,662 $- Millennials Gen-X Boomers Matures Source: U.S. Census Bureau Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 48. Current Cohort Sales Sorted by Avg. Bottle Price 50.0% 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% Millennial (21-34 year olds) 25.0% Gen X (35-46 year olds) Boomers (47-64 year olds) 20.0% Matures (65+) 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% < $15 $15 - $20 $21 - $30 $31 - $40 $41 - $70 > $70 Source: Silicon Valley Bank Proprietary Research Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 49. The Digital World & The 5th Column Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 50. General Perception of Social Media By Case Size 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% Negative 40.0% Positive/Active 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 1 -2,500 2,501 - 5,000 5,001 - 10,001 - 25,001 - 50,001 - 100,001 - >250,000 10,000 25,000 50,000 100,000 250,000 Source: Silicon Valley Bank Proprietary Research Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 51. The 5th Column • The 5th Column consists of disparate companies with online solutions to help sell and market wines such as: • E-commerce sites (Wine.com, Winelibrary.com) • Flash Sale Sites (Lot18, WineAccess, Cinderellawine, Winestillsoldout.com) • Consumer information sites (Winesearcher.com, Cellartracker.com) • Mobile applications (HelloVino, Drync, Vivino) • Software solutions (Vin65.com, Shipcompliant, Vinespring.com, Vinovisit.com) • Social Media Solutions (Social-Candy.com, VinTank) Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 52. Challenges For the 5th Column • For software solutions for the wine industry: • Total addressable audience: ~ 7500 wineries in the US • Very little digital acumen • Fragmented • Behave differently by region • Slow adoption • Under resourced to manage any of the 5th column players • Primarily focused on tasting room sales, wine club or traditional 3 Tier sales • Salary rates for digital employees is at least 40% below comparable positions 45-90 miles away • Many Investors are gun shy of the category Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 53. Challenges For the 5th Column • For Online Sales Companies • Regulation • Margin erosion • Cost of carrying inventory • Total wines available in the US (150K+ annually) • Consumer behavior • Cost and challenges with shipping • Winery resistance • Wholesaler and retailer friction • Limited nature of luxury wines thus stunting the ability to scale • Investors WERE gun shy of the category (Lot18 recently received over $40M in funding) Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 54. The Future of the 5th Column • Pandora’s Box is now open and success is obtainable • The past failures have left a roadmap for success to new contenders • The recession has forced wineries to explore alternative solutions in the digital sphere • Winery management is getting younger and more open to digital • The juggernaut of digital is pressing on the wine industry • Silicon Valley (only 90 miles away from CA North Coast) grows ever closer to the wine industry Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 55. Bottle Pricing Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 56. Reported Bottle Pricing Expectations Source: Silicon Valley Bank Proprietary Research Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 57. 2012 Bottle Price Expectations by Avg. Price Point 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% Reduce Prices Hold Prices 30.0% Increase Prices 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% < $15 $15 - $20 $21 - $30 $31 - $40 $41 - $70 > $70 Source: Silicon Valley Bank Proprietary Research Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 58. Net Bottle Price Change By Average Price Point 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% < $15 $15 - $20 $21 - $30 20.0% $31 - $40 $41 - $70 > $70 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% Source: Silicon Valley Bank Proprietary Research Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 59. Summary • Domestic wine inventories evolving into shortage. Will last for some time. •  Increasing prices for grapes and bulk juice •  Increasing difficulty for négociants to find wine of consistent quality for the price point • Fewer private labels •  ore transitions, sales and mergers taking place than at any time in M memory • ontinuation of new mergers among wholesalers C •  Increasing plantings to feed the looming grape shortage • Modest retail bottle price increases Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 60. Summary Continued •  Increasing difficulty for third-party marketers who’ve sold with a culture of discounting • The 5th Column is a viable and improving channel. • he wealth divide is really more of a demographic divide. T • Millennials are the future. Gen-X is now. Boomers largest but will start to decline • The euro will enter a weakening trend versus the U.S. dollar •  Imports gain a larger market share • The U.S. economy will gradually positively evolve with more middle class consumers jumping on the moving train • 2012 sales growth rates of 7-11 percent, a slight drop from the prior year Twitter: #SVBWine
  • 61. Disclosures This material, including without limitation to the statistical information herein, is provided for informational purposes only. The material is based in part on information from third-party sources that we believe to be reliable, but which have not been independently verified by us and for this reason we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete. The information should not be viewed as tax, investment, legal or other advice nor is it to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. You should obtain relevant and specific professional advice before making any investment decision. Nothing relating to the material should be construed as a solicitation, offer or recommendation to acquire or dispose of any investment or to engage in any other transaction. Foreign exchange transactions can be highly risky, and losses may occur in short periods of time if there is an adverse movement of exchange rates. Exchange rates can be highly volatile and are impacted by numerous economic, political and social factors, as well as supply and demand and governmental intervention, control and adjustments. Investments in financial instruments carry significant risk, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Before entering any foreign exchange transaction, you should obtain advice from your own tax, financial, legal and other advisors, and only make investment decisions on the basis of your own objectives, experience and resources. Opinions expressed are our opinions as of the date of this content only. The material is based upon information which we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. ©2012 SVB Financial Group. All rights reserved. Silicon Valley Bank is a member of FDIC and Federal Reserve System. SVB>, SVB>Find a way, SVB Financial Group, and Silicon Valley Bank are registered trademarks. B_WD-12-12064. Rev. 04-12-12. Twitter: #SVBWine