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ICT4S keynote Frits Verheij

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About Frits Verheij
Frits Verheij has been working in the renewable energy business, and related areas, since the start of his career in 1987. Prior to joining KEMA (now DNV GL), he worked at the research organization TNO and the Dutch Energy Agency. Currently, Mr. Verheij is Director Smart Energy for DNV GL – Energy. Additionally, he is actively involved in the energy transition arena and acts as chairman of the Board of Top consortium on Knowledge & Innovation (TKI) Switch2SmartGrids, as well as a board member of the Global Smart Grid Federation and GreenIT Amsterdam. Mr. Verheij is an expert in working at the crossroads of technology, policy, strategy, and socio-economics, and has worked for governments and utilities, among other stakeholders in similar industries. He knows how to work with different views and interests of stakeholders, as well as how to manage multi-client projects, such as the Smart Energy Collective, an industrial initiative of 26 companies in the Netherlands.

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ICT4S keynote Frits Verheij

  1. 1. DNV GL © 2014 SAFER, SMARTER, GREENERDNV GL © 2014 Why ICT is key for sustainable urban energy Frits Verheij, Director Smart Green Cities, DNV GL ICT4S, Amsterdam - NL, August 31, 2016 15 September 20161 Adding a new design to old-fashioned energy
  2. 2. DNV GL © 2014 Outline 2 Brief introduction of DNV GL + ditto of TKI Urban Energy Smart energy – creating value for a sustainable decentralised energy system Digitization of energy systems – trends and some examples What should be on your R&D agenda?
  3. 3. DNV GL © 2014 Brief introduction of DNV GL 3
  4. 4. DNV GL © 20144 Industry consolidation
  5. 5. DNV GL © 2014 DNV GL purpose and vision 5 To safeguard life, property and the environment Global impact for a safe and sustainable future Purpose Vision
  6. 6. DNV GL © 20146 Growing share of renewables Security and ageing assets Increasing global demand for energy Climate change and extreme weather Integration of energy markets Transition to a safer, smarter and greener energy future
  7. 7. DNV GL © 2014 How we contribute to a safer, smarter and more sustainable world Examples of our project portfolio: § Smart Cable Guard (SCG) § Smart Energy @ PowerMatching City § Energy Storage Roadmap 7 Policy Production Transmission & distribution UseTransmission & distribution Use
  8. 8. DNV GL © 20148 Solving the Energy Trilemma
  9. 9. DNV GL © 2014 Brief introduction of TKI Urban Energy 9 TKI Urban Energy s o l a r & s m a r t e n e r g y s o l u t i o n s
  10. 10. Dutch innovation policy: 9 ‘top sectors’ + ICT Objective: § stimulating  (the  environment  for)   innovation   § improving  international  competitiveness Approach: § collaboration  in  ‘golden  triangle’ § diminishing  barriers   COMPANIES SCIENCE  &   EDUCATION GOVERNMENT High  techLife  Sciences Agro-­Food WaterLogistics Creative IndustryChemicals Horticulture Energy
  11. 11. The Top Sector Energy One  Board  of  Directors Five  Top  consortia  for  Knowledge  &  Innovation  (TKIs) § driving  innovation  agendas,  building  ecosystems 500-­600  organisations  involved  including  200-­300  SMEs § € 300M  annual  budget,  50%  from  industries
  12. 12. 5 Top consortia on Knowledge and Innovation § Wind  at  Sea § Gas § Switch2SmartGrids § EnerGo § Solar  Energy § Bio-­based  Economy § Energy  &  Industry § Cross-­TKI  programs § Cross-­overs  with  other  Top  Sectors TKI  Urban  Energy s  o  l  a  r    &    s  m  a  r  t      e  n  e  r  g  y    s  o  l  u  t  i  o  n  s
  13. 13. Main objectives 1.   Accelerating  Energy  Transition 2.   Strengthening  economic  growth,  export  and  jobs Empowering  the  New  Economy!
  14. 14. Human  Capital:  education  for  technology   Connect  with  small  and  medium  sized  enterprises International  agenda  on  sharing  knowledge:  IEA,  ERA-­NET,  Horizon  2020 Enhancing  export  potential  (connecting  in  other  countries) Connecting  with  the  strengths  of  regions  within  the  Netherlands Marketing:  what  will  it  take  for  society  to  accept  innovations? Strategic themes of Top Sector Energy
  15. 15. Energy supply today: centralised with separate networks
  16. 16. Energy supply in future: towards integrated glocalisation Domain  of   TKI  Urban  Energy
  17. 17. ICT is key in our future ‘energy wheel’
  18. 18. Scope of TKI Urban Energy § Innovations  regarding  PV-­Solar,  heat  and  cold,  energy  efficiency,  and  integration  and  intelligent   control  of  the  entire  energy  system  in  the  built  environment 18 PL#2#Koude#en# Warmte# Programmalijn#1# Zonnestroomtechnologie#(PV)# Programmalijn#5# Energieregelsystemen# en#?diensten# Programmalijn#3# MulBfuncBonele# bouwdelen# Programmalijn#2# Warmte?#en#koude?# installaBes# Programmalijn#4# Flexibele#energie?# infrastructuur#
  19. 19. DNV GL © 2015 Smart energy – creating value for a sustainable decentralised energy system 19
  20. 20. DNV GL © 2014 Climate change is at top of mind of governments and industry … 20
  21. 21. DNV GL © 2014 … and already affects our live (1) – Storm surge flooding for Copenhagen and surrounding areas (2011) 21
  22. 22. DNV GL © 2014 … and already affects our live (2) – Superstorm Sandy caused blackout of 8.1 million homes in US (2011) 22 Left: simulation of flooding extent of Long Island in 2050 Below: actual situation after Sandy in 2011 Power providers reported outages in every state from North Carolina to the Canadian border and as far inland as Ohio and Indiana.
  23. 23. DNV GL © 2014 Energy transition needed to realise climate change targets e.g. in Europe EU decarbonisation scenarios changing the energy mix 2030 and 2050 range of fuel shares in primary energy consumption compared with 2005 outcome (%) 23 Source: Energy Roadmap 2050, European Commission Electrification of energy consumption changing the business models of utilities, and others Share of electricity in current trend and in decarbonisation scenario’s (% of final energy demand) 2030 2050 RES Gas Nuclear Oil SolidFuels RES Gas Nuclear Oil SolidFuels 2005 Range of decarbonisation scenarios Range for current trends scenarios Electricity use as part of the energy mix
  24. 24. DNV GL © 2014 Socio-economy § Decentralisation, next to Europeanisation § Digitization Energy transition strengthened by socio-economic developments … 24 Energy transition § Growth of renewables § Electrification of our energy system (next slide) Source: Eurostat Super computers that fit in the palm of your hand Social media, social trends Socially connected everywhere, anytime Access to ‘the cloud’ Open data
  25. 25. DNV GL © 2014 Electrification of demand and supply The role of electricity yesterday, today, tomorrow 25
  26. 26. DNV GL © 2014 … and other developments changing the energy landscape locally 26 Big data management and cyber security threats Need to become resilient, e.g. for extreme climate events Rise of self-supporting communities Converging infrastructures: gas, electricity, heat/cold Increasing role of IT leads to smarter grids ‘New’ entrants applying novel business models
  27. 27. DNV GL © 2014 DNV GL’s Technology Outlook 2025 – 10 Technology trends creating a new power reality 27
  28. 28. DNV GL © 201428 (€) Solar PV, 70 GW installed yet
  29. 29. DNV GL © 201429 Application range for alternative energy storage technologies Dischargetimeatratedpower Electricity storage – a wide variety of applications, e.g. for EVs
  30. 30. DNV GL © 2014 Digitalisation of electricity grids ! 𝐵 𝐴(𝑣) . 𝑑𝐴 = 0   Grids become hybrid and more complex 30
  31. 31. DNV GL © 2014 Electrification will ease integration of (local) energy companies, housing industry, and automotive sector creating game changing business models 31 Transportation Local energy Smart devices Smart home appliances, innovative services, etc. E.g. micro CHP’s: local heating and electricity production Electric vehicles will become mainstream Green gas application
  32. 32. DNV GL © 2014 Technology developments ease access for (small) consumers, however also result in more complex energy systems 32
  33. 33. DNV GL © 2014 Projections show an increasing need for flexibility at multiple timescales 33 -­‐5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 Megawatt Hour Residual  load  Netherlands  -­‐ 2030  (8  GW  PV,  16  GW  wind) -­‐5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 Megawatt Hour Residual  load  Netherlands  -­‐ 2012  (0.7  GW  PV,  2.5  GW  wind) Expected volatility at multiple timescales -­‐5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 Megawatt Hour Residual  load  Netherlands  -­‐ 2030  (8  GW  PV,  16  GW  wind) -­‐5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 Megawatt Hour Residual  load  Netherlands  -­‐ 2012  (0.7  GW  PV,  2.5  GW  wind)
  34. 34. DNV GL © 2014 E.g. Flexibility markets will be needed to reduce costs of imbalance 34 Relative size of required imbalance power relative to the share of renewables in a given control area (source: DNV GL Energy and Utrecht University, Netherlands).
  35. 35. DNV GL © 2014 We are about to make strategic choices Development   process  in  smart  energy Large Scale Implementation Strategic Choices Planning Preparation Regulation Large  Scale Demonstration Service Demonstration Feasibility Demonstration R&D Today 35
  36. 36. DNV GL © 2014 Digitization of energy systems – trends and some examples 36
  37. 37. DNV GL © 2014 Trend and example #1: Data analytics - Energy and the Internet of Things § Industrial internet is going to dwarf the human internet. § Size to ~10.000 IoT objects/person – In 2020 already ~7 IoT objects/person (Cisco) § Identification through IPv6. § Data tsunami: for utilities e.g.: – Smart meters – Measurement data (RTU, PMU, PQ etc.) – Analysis data (PFI, Oil analysis etc.) – Flexible pricing data – Communication data – Weather data – PV, EV, Smart grid data (HEMS) – Future: smart devices (fault records) 37
  38. 38. DNV GL © 2014 Energy Analytics will help us to use this data and predict the future § Diagnostic Analytics Determine why something has happened, using content analytics and natural language processing to harvest insights found in documents, email, websites, social media and so on. § Descriptive Analytics (Visual Analytics) Know what is happening now by gaining a context-relevant view of your business through exploration-and-discovery and visualization-and-interaction capabilities. See historical trends and patterns related to your current business situation through dashboards and business intelligence reports. § Predictive analytics Assess what could happen next, by using predictive models, data-and-text mining, statistical analysis. Discover patterns and trends from all types of data. § Prescriptive Analytics (Decision Support) Recommends one or more courses of action based on predictive modelling, localized rules, scoring and optimization techniques. Shows expected outcome of each. Enables decisions based on real- time data instead of on gut instinct. § Cognitive Analytics Systems that learn from every interaction and outcome in a naturally human-like way through the integration of all types of analytics to adapt your processes and engagements. Allows to find correlations, create hypotheses and learn from the outcomes. 38 Now Past Future
  39. 39. DNV GL © 2014 Answering questions based on Energy Data Analytics Is the wind resource appropriate to support financing this wind farm? Is the cable operating as expected and can I predict when and where it will fail? Where am I getting the most participation in my energy efficiency program? How is this customer using energy throughout the day? 39 How are my generation assets performing? What is the status of each of my renewable assets and what needs attention? Where are the best locations in a region to place renewable assets? How does my retail energy offer compare with others in the competitive market?
  40. 40. DNV GL © 2014 Digital Smart Substation design=communication infrastructure + IEDs + sensors Integration of functions Communication infrastructure is one of the key success factors in operation and maintenance of a DSS, and of future power system in general 40 Operation and control IEDs and their integration play an important role in the DSS design Asset management Sensors and their integration play an important role in the DSS design Sensors
  41. 41. DNV GL © 2014 Trend and example #2: Electric vehicles - with commodity prices declining; parties are eager to explore alternative earning models 41 § B2B sees multiple pricing strategies; B2C products price kWh § Retail innovation goes beyond commodity pricing § Electric mobility opens a new window of opportunities § Collaboration between utility and automotive sector is essential
  42. 42. 42 Utilities § Want  to  become  service  and  not  remain  solely  commodity   providers § Lock  customers  into  long-­‐term  contracts OEMs § Want  to  sell  more  EVs  &  PHEVs  to  comply  with  ever  stricter  CO2 fleet  targets § Want  to  ensure  a  continuous  participation  in  the  EVs  lifecycle   revenue  stream Customers § Search  for  a  more  holistic  e  mobility  offering § Shy  away  of  the  high  TCOs  and  generally  prefer  to  pay  their  share   of  the  use  instead  of  owning  the  assets The  EV  will  be  at  the  Intersection  of  OEM,  Utility  and  Customer   Electric  vehicles  as  game  changer  for  the  utility  business? Customer Alternative  &  Second  Use
  43. 43. 43 Technology  -­‐ Alternative  Use Connectivity  and  Battery  Degradation  are  the  Main  Challenges  to  be  overcome § For  the  utility  to  assume  control  of  a  sufficient  large  number  of   EV’s,  V2H  or  V2G  connectivity  is  key.  Communicating  via  the   smart  connected  car  itself  lowers  the  investment  costs § In  order  to  perform  the  uses  cases,  both  discharging  capability   and  access  to  the  State  of  Charge  information  should  be   supported  by  the  OEM. § Performing  use  cases  for  alternative  use  can  put  extra  strain  on   the  battery   Portfolio  optimization  shows  the  biggest  influence  on  battery   degradation § Other  use  cases  barely  influence  battery  life § By  constantly  matching  market  prices  and  a  careful  execution  of   the  optimal  charging  and  discharging  the  effect  can  be   minimized Connectivity Battery  Degradation
  44. 44. DNV GL © 2014 New collaboration leads to new business opportunities ??? Present infrastructure accommodates various ownership and/or control concepts 44
  45. 45. DNV GL © 2014 First examples of new business models have been launched 15 September 201645 Source: Jedlix Source: Energeia
  46. 46. DNV GL © 2014 EV market just started, however growing so fast that it can contribute to the present primary and secondary control reserve 46 EVs will be able to serve the entire German demand by 2025 By that time stationary storage (2nd use of EV batteries) will begin to take over the market
  47. 47. DNV GL © 2014 15 September 201647 Trend and example #3: Universal Smart Energy Framework (USEF) In search for a more sustainable energy system, many different pilots are initiated, often focussing on very similar energy flexibility concepts. While technology pushes the market forward at considerable speed, we risk wasting time and money reinventing the wheel, or addressing incompatibility issues later. USEF delivers the market structure, the tools and the rules for energy flexibility trading. It provides a common standard for a unified smart energy market that is easy to build on. With existing detailed specifications and the first real-life pilots in the market, USEF is the most advanced initiative of its kind, enabling implementations to accelerate and scale rapidly and assuring product connectebility.
  48. 48. -­‐ 48 To  create  an  effective  market  we  should  all  play   together  by  the  same  rules Which  may   lead  to  e.g.   different   aggregation   models Regulation  differs Market   characteristics   differ Requirements  of  flex   products  differ One  size  does  not  fit  all  – yet  harmonization  is  needed
  49. 49. USEF  can  be  adapted   to  fit  different   scenarios  and  markets. The  framework  is   already  being  applied   to  smart  energy   demonstration   projects,  like   EnergieKoplopers in   Heerhugowaard.
  50. 50. New  Smart   Energy   System Capacity   Management Portfolio Optimization System  balancing Transmission  System  Operator Balance  Responsible  Party Distribution  System  Operator
  51. 51. Producers Large  Industry Central  Generation Local demand and   supply TSO Balancing  Capacity Commercial  &  Industrial Residential Aggregated BRP Portfolio Optimisation Grid Management DSO Flexibility   Suppliers Flexibility   Users x x
  52. 52. USEF  Role  Model
  53. 53. Consumer Aggregator FLEXIBILITY Cooling   Systems Production   Process Emergency   Generators Heat  Pump Solar Electric   Vehicle Airco  System How  is  value  created  from  flexibility?  – The  Consumer  perspective The  aggregator A  new  role, unlocking  flexibility
  54. 54. Consumer Aggregator BRP DSO TSO Flex  for Portfolio optimization Flex   For  grid management Flex  to maintain balance UFLEX Cooling   Systems Production   Process Emergency   Generators Heat  Pump Solar Electric   Vehicle Airco  System How  is  value  created  from  flexibility?  – The  Market  perspective FLEXIBILITY
  55. 55. USEF  implemented Live  since  18  August  2015 Households  provides  about  200  times  0.5  kW   of  controllable  flex  automatically
  56. 56. Balance   Responsible  Party Flex  for   imbalance   correction Distribution   System   Operator Flex  to   prevent   congestion Aggregator flex flex flex Flex  fees  – no  dynamic  pricing
  57. 57. DNV GL © 2014 What should be on your R&D agenda? 57
  58. 58. DNV GL © 2014 R&D creates business for tomorrow 58 To-do list § Integrate ICT in energy technologies, and in new energy market designs § Think technology + economics + society + innovation policy + regulation + … § Join forces with industries and academia having other expertise than yours Attitude § Open-minded, able to combine ideas and new technologies § Strong believe in your own vision, still willing to be a team player § Out-of-the-box? What box?
  59. 59. DNV GL © 2014 SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER www.dnvgl.com Thank you. 59 Frits Verheij, Director Smart Green Cities frits.verheij@dnvgl.com +31 26 356 2445

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