“The State of the Business Economy”<br />June 24, 2009<br />PRESENTED BY<br />Richard Yamarone<br />“The Trader’s Guide to...
Hoping for a “V”-Shaped Recovery <br />
Leading Indicators Signal Some Degree of Recovery <br />
Anecdotal Reports Starting to Improve <br />
Fiscal Policy Arriving at the Spigots <br />
Business Investment has Collapsed <br />
Little Need to Build With Glut of Commercial Property<br />
Signs of Stabilization in Housing <br />
Home Prices Returning to Pre-Bubble Levels <br />
This Isn’t the 1950s <br />Source: Lewis Wickes Hine, “Power House Mechanic”<br />
Considerable Change in Composition<br />
Considerable Change in Composition <br /> 	 1950	           2009	          Change 						 Manufacturing			30.2%		9.5%	     ...
Trade, the Unsexy Savior <br />
Unemployment Benefit Claims Point to Economic Trough <br />
Ever-Resilient Consumer Tossed in Towel<br />
‘Fab Five’ – Dining Out <br />
‘Fab Five’ – Jewelry & Watches <br />
‘Fab Five’ – Cosmetics & Perfumes <br />
‘Fab Five’ – Women’s Dresses<br />
‘Fab Five’ – Casino Gambling<br />
‘Fab Five’ Recovery…<br />
Auto Industry is the Wildcard<br />
Prices Aren’t ‘Collapsing’<br />
Consumer Inflation Expectations on the Rise<br />
Risks to “V”-Shaped Recovery…<br /><ul><li> Auto Industry Collapse
 Commodity (Food), Energy, Healthcare Inflation
(price pass alongs announced during the quarterly earning season)
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Richard Yamarone\'s Presentation

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Richard Yamarone, senior vice president and director of economic research at Argus Research Corporation, was the June luncheon\'s featured speaker. Yamarone has more than two decades of experience on Wall Street, analyzing and researching domestic and international economic trends, monitoring monetary and fiscal policy development, and forecasting the U.S. macro economy.

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Richard Yamarone\'s Presentation

  1. 1. “The State of the Business Economy”<br />June 24, 2009<br />PRESENTED BY<br />Richard Yamarone<br />“The Trader’s Guide to Key Economic Indicators”<br />
  2. 2. Hoping for a “V”-Shaped Recovery <br />
  3. 3. Leading Indicators Signal Some Degree of Recovery <br />
  4. 4. Anecdotal Reports Starting to Improve <br />
  5. 5. Fiscal Policy Arriving at the Spigots <br />
  6. 6. Business Investment has Collapsed <br />
  7. 7. Little Need to Build With Glut of Commercial Property<br />
  8. 8. Signs of Stabilization in Housing <br />
  9. 9. Home Prices Returning to Pre-Bubble Levels <br />
  10. 10. This Isn’t the 1950s <br />Source: Lewis Wickes Hine, “Power House Mechanic”<br />
  11. 11. Considerable Change in Composition<br />
  12. 12. Considerable Change in Composition <br />   1950 2009 Change   Manufacturing 30.2% 9.5% -20.8% Resources 2.0% 0.6% -1.4% Information 3.6% 2.1% -1.5%Wholesale 5.1% 4.3% -0.8%Utilities 0.1% 0.4% 0.3%Construction 5.1% 5.0% -0.1%Retail 10.3% 11.1% 0.8%Other Services 1.9% 4.1% 2.2% F,I,RE 3.3% 5.7% 2.4%Government 13.6% 16.7% 3.1%Leisure 6.2% 9.9% 3.7%Professional 6.5% 12.8% 6.3%Education & Health Care 4.8%   14.2%   9.4%<br />
  13. 13. Trade, the Unsexy Savior <br />
  14. 14. Unemployment Benefit Claims Point to Economic Trough <br />
  15. 15. Ever-Resilient Consumer Tossed in Towel<br />
  16. 16. ‘Fab Five’ – Dining Out <br />
  17. 17. ‘Fab Five’ – Jewelry & Watches <br />
  18. 18. ‘Fab Five’ – Cosmetics & Perfumes <br />
  19. 19.
  20. 20. ‘Fab Five’ – Women’s Dresses<br />
  21. 21. ‘Fab Five’ – Casino Gambling<br />
  22. 22. ‘Fab Five’ Recovery…<br />
  23. 23. Auto Industry is the Wildcard<br />
  24. 24. Prices Aren’t ‘Collapsing’<br />
  25. 25. Consumer Inflation Expectations on the Rise<br />
  26. 26. Risks to “V”-Shaped Recovery…<br /><ul><li> Auto Industry Collapse
  27. 27. Commodity (Food), Energy, Healthcare Inflation
  28. 28. (price pass alongs announced during the quarterly earning season)
  29. 29. Stimulus Fails to Generate Jobs
  30. 30. Consumers Decide to Save
  31. 31. Jobs Climate Deteriorates Further </li></li></ul><li>Reasons for Optimism…<br /><ul><li> Massive Monetary Stimulus in Pipeline
  32. 32. Large Stimulus of Falling Energy Prices
  33. 33. Government Has Approved Whopping Fiscal Spending Program
  34. 34. Home Prices Have Returned to Pre-Bubble Levels
  35. 35. Frozen Credit Markets Have Thawed Considerably</li></li></ul><li>Crisis <br />

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