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1327 - FTCs and Farmer Tef Demonstration and Results 2012

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Title: 2012 FTCs and farmer tef technology demonstration - Overview of results
Date: May 2013
Author: Ethiopian ATA - Agricultural Transformation Agency

Published in: Technology
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1327 - FTCs and Farmer Tef Demonstration and Results 2012

  1. 1. 2012 FTCs and farmers tef technology demonstration Overview of results May 2013
  2. 2. Agenda A. Overview of results at federal level B. Breakdown of results by region C. Supplemental analyses 1
  3. 3. 2 Newly-scaled up tef technologies, particularly row planting and transplanting, demonstrate yield improvements, with an average yield increase of ~70% over the national average Average yield by planting method Quintals/hectare • Data was collected from ~15,800 validating farmers (and some control farmer groups) to determine the results of new tef technologies • For the 14,605 farmers, average yields for row planting and transplanting increased 70% from national average (20.9 versus 12.6 qtls/ha) • As the chart shows, there is still much work to be done in properly managing transplanting to realize potential yield gains 17 12 16 21222122 18 20 2323 Amhara n = 4,637 SNNP n = 3,480 Oromia n = 6,002 Tigray n = 486 N/A Broadcasting Row planting Transplanting Source: 2012 Data from Regional, Zonal and Woreda administration staff (collected Feb-April 2013) Note: Includes data from 14,605 farmers (omitted error/outlier data from 15,790 total collected)
  4. 4. 3 Distribution of yield data shows that 30% of all validating farmers surveyed experienced yield increase between 20 and 80% over the national average Source: 2012 Data from Regional, Zonal and Woreda administration staff (collected Feb-April 2013) Note: Includes data from 14,605 farmers (omitted error/outlier data from 15,790 total collected) Distribution of Validating Farmers’ yields Frequency of yield increase (as % of total data set) 4 7 6 8 10 8 13 11 7 150 - 200% 125 - 150% Over 200% 100 - 125% 80 - 100% 60 - 80%40 - 60%20 - 40%10 - 20%Less than 10% 27 ~30% of farmers saw a 20 – 80% yield increase Farmers who broadcasted, used high seed rates, or may have experienced challenges with new technologies ~20% of farmers saw a 100 – 200% yield increase (~60% of this group row planted)
  5. 5. 4 Top-performing woredas across the four regions have demonstrated success in adopting the new technologies, reaching maximum yields higher than a 400% yield increase Average and maximum yields for row planting and transplanting farmers Quintal/hectare 36 36 35 35 35 35 33 33 32 31H/Abote 53 Tahaty- Maichew 56 47 Lume 68 Maraka Kuxha 68 65 Alefa 42 Dabat Enebsie Sar Midir 58 Chilga 53 67 Libo Kemkem AMHARA SNNP OROMIA SNNP TIGRAY OROMIA 68 quintals/hectare versus the national average of 12.5 quintals/hectare Source: 2012 Data from Regional, Zonal and Woreda administration staff (collected Feb-April 2013) Note: Includes data from 14,605 farmers (omitted error/outlier data from 15,790 total collected)
  6. 6. 5 Data indicates that validating farmers’ seed rate usage varies by planting method, with the highest rates used in broadcasting to the least amount of seed used in transplanting Average seed rate and yields by planting type across regions Yield (quintal/hectare), Seed rate (kg/hectare) 4 1011 30 2222 15 13 25 20 15 10 5 0 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 TransplantingRow plantingBroadcastingNational average • While this does not imply causation, there appears to be an inverse relationship between planting type and seed rate practices of the validating farmers • Overall, the average seed rate has dropped significantly from traditional practices of 30-50 kg/ha to an average of 8.8 kg/ha across all planting types (includes broadcasting farmers as well) • Use of Quncho variety appears to be on the rise, with 92% of validating farmers choosing it over other options (local varieties, Cross-37, Yedega, etc.) Seed rate Avg yield Source: 2012 Data from Regional, Zonal and Woreda administration staff (collected Feb-April 2013) Note: Includes data from 14,605 farmers (omitted error/outlier data from 15,790 total collected)
  7. 7. 6 Fertilizer application rates appear to match recommendations for DAP (average application rate of 99.5 kg/ha), yet fall slightly below recommendations on Urea (88.4 kg/ha) Average DAP and Urea application rates by region Kg/hectare Key takeaways on DAP and Urea utilization by farmers: • Urea use is highly variable, much more than DAP: the standard deviation for Urea is 24.6 kg/hectare versus 3.8 for DAP, indicating the that farmer use of DAP is more consistent • Application rates are fairly agnostic of planting method: for each planting method, the average application rates remain similar 9910099 91 868890 Amhara n = 4,037 SNNP n = 3,051 Oromia n = 4,943 Tigray n = 304 N/A DAP Urea 4.1 21.9 4.4 25.4 1.3 26.5 6.5 21.5 X Standard deviation Source: 2012 Data from Regional, Zonal and Woreda administration staff (collected Feb-April 2013) Note: Includes data from 12,335 farmers (omitted error/outlier fertilizer data from 15,790 total collected)
  8. 8. 7 A high-level view of planting time indicates that most farmers observed ‘traditional’ planting times, though farmers that planted earlier saw significant yield increases 69616261626272 86 66 8089 0 50 100 June Week 2 Sept Week 1 July Week 4 August Week 1 August Week 2 August Week 3 August Week 4 59 July Week 3 July Week 2 July Week 1 June Week 4 June Week 3 Average productivity increase by planting time % productivity increase (compared to national average) 0.3%0.1% 2%0.8% 16%5% 19%24% 4%7% 1%4% Percentof farmers Key takeaways  Planting time of validating farmers followed standard practices, with ~60% of farmers planting in mid-July to early August  Though a small sample size, there seems to be a strong productivity increase for farmers who planted earlier, in the 3 and 4th weeks of June Standard planting period Next steps for exploration  Early planting time, when is coincides with rainfall, is a topic to be further explored with farmers and on FTC plots  EIAR and RARIs, with support from ATA, will conduct formal research projects to determine the impact of planting 2, 3 or 4 weeks early Source: 2012 Data from Regional, Zonal and Woreda administration staff (collected Feb-April 2013) Note: Includes data from 12,335 farmers (omitted error/outlier data from 15,790 total collected) Largely driven by transplanting
  9. 9. 8 20.1 18.3 15.5 8.4 12.6 +60% Average yields by experimental plot across regions Quintal/hectare X.X Standard deviation Avg yield qt/ha Planting type National Average for 2012 Broadcast by hand Broadcast by machine Row plant Transplant Seed rate (kg/ha) 30-50 5-10 5-10 0.5-0.7 Fertilizer type none DAP + Urea DAP + Urea DAP + Urea Seed type Local Quncho Quncho Quncho 8.16.9 9.4 11.4 In ~1,100 FTC trials, it can be observed that factors such as reduced seed rate, planting in rows, and use of DAP and Urea can each contribute to increasing yields • Findings indicate that significant yield improvement results from new technologies such as row planting, transplanting, and reduced seed rate • Across the 1,100 FTCs, yields were recorded for each experimental plot that was designed to test either planting method, seed rate, seed variety, or fertilizer use Source: 2012 Data from Regional, Zonal and Woreda administration staff (collected Feb-April 2013); CSA 2012
  10. 10. 9 20.1 18.3 15.514.9 13.9 12.012.6 +4%+7% +18% +10% +16% Average yields by experimental plot across regions Quintal/hectare Planting type National Average for 2012 Broadcast by hand Broadcast by hand Broadcast by hand Broadcast by machine Row plant Transplant Seed rate (kg/ha) 30-50 30-50 5-10 5-10 5-10 0.5-0.7 Fertilizer type DAP + Urea DAP + Urea DAP + Urea DAP + Urea DAP + Urea DAP + Urea Seed type Local Quncho Quncho Quncho Quncho Quncho Taking a closer look at each variable, it appears that switching to Quncho and row planting are the largest drivers of productivity increase Source: 2012 Data from Regional, Zonal and Woreda administration staff (collected Feb-April 2013); CSA 2012
  11. 11. Agenda A. Overview of results at federal level B. Breakdown of results by region C. Supplemental analyses 10
  12. 12. 11 AMHARA: overview of data collected Source: 2012 Data from Regional, Zonal and Woreda administration staff (collected Feb-April 2013) Farmer data overview Average yield 20.47 Standard deviation 9.65 Average productivity increase 62% Count of farmers Raw Cleaned Farmers 4,958 4,637 Gender split Male 4,373 95% Female 685 4% Geographic scope within region (as reported) Count of zones 10 Count of woredas 85 31% Broadcasting (machine) 1% Broadcasting (hand) Transplanting Row planting48% 19% Distribution of planting type % of total farmers (from raw data)
  13. 13. 12 AMHARA: input use, yields achieved, and planting time Source: 2012 Data from Regional, Zonal and Woreda administration staff (collected Feb-April 2013) Inputs use of Validating Farmers Planting time of Validating Farmers Highest-producing woredas (based on Validating Farmers) Average input use by planting method Kg/hectare 10 88 9994 9 99 96100 2 Row planting n = 2,238 Broadcasting n = 1,446 Transplanting n = 889 Seed DAP Urea Average and maximum farmer yields Kg/hectare (average and max by woreda) 36 35 32 31 30 Enebsie Sar midir 58 Alefa Dabat 67 Libo Kemkem 68 53Chilga 42 Average Max Average yield based on planting time % productivity increase (compared to national average) 68 194136455671947285105104 100 August Week 3 200 0 Sept Week 1 August Week 4 August Week 2 August Week 1 July Week 4 July Week 3 July Week 2 July Week 1 June Week 4 June Week 3 June Week 2
  14. 14. 13 18.0 16.3 14.5 8.0 12.6 +124% Average yields by experimental plots across Amhara FTCs Quintal/hectare X.X Standard deviation Avg yield qt/ha Planting type National Average for 2012 Broadcast by hand Broadcast by machine Row plant Transplant Seed rate (kg/ha) 30-40 5-10 5-10 0.5-0.7 Fertilizer type none DAP + Urea DAP + Urea DAP + Urea Seed type Local Quncho Quncho Quncho 8.15.0 8.9 10.4 AMHARA: FTC demonstration plot results Source: 2012 Data from Regional, Zonal and Woreda administration staff (collected Feb-April 2013); CSA 2012
  15. 15. 14 OROMIA: overview of data collected Source: 2012 Data from Regional, Zonal and Woreda administration staff (collected Feb-April 2013) Farmer data overview Average yield 21.26 Standard deviation 8.56 Average productivity increase 69% Count of farmers and FTCs Raw Cleaned Farmers 6,515 6,002 Gender split Male 6,198 95% Female 292 5% Geographic scope within region (as reported) Count of zones N/A Count of woredas 48 15% Broadcasting 57% Transplanting Row planting 16% Distribution of planting type % of total farmers (from raw data)
  16. 16. 15 OROMIA: input use, yields achieved, and planting time Source: 2012 Data from Regional, Zonal and Woreda administration staff (collected Feb-April 2013) Inputs use of Validating Farmers Planting time of Validating Farmers Highest-producing woredas (based on Validating Farmers) Average input use by planting method Kg/hectare 4810 1009999 859085 Transplanting n = 889 Row planting n = 2,238 Broadcasting n = 1,446 Urea DAP Seed Average and maximum farmer yields Kg/hectare (average and max by woreda) 32 30 30 28 26Dawoo 38 A/Nagale 65 Gimbichuu 61 H/Abote 53 Lume 68 Average Max Average yield based on planting time % productivity increase (compared to national average) 92 626164676772 90 6675 51 2050 August Week 3 August Week 2 August Week 1 July Week 4 July Week 3 July Week 2 100 0 Sept Week 1 August Week 4 July Week 1 June Week 4 June Week 3 June Week 2
  17. 17. 16 20.1 18.1 15.2 8.1 12.6 +148% Average yields by experimental plots across Oromia FTCs Quintal/hectare X.X Standard deviation Avg yield qt/ha Planting type National Average for 2012 Broadcast by hand Broadcast by machine Row plant Transplant Seed rate (kg/ha) 30-40 5-10 5-10 0.5-0.7 Fertilizer type none DAP + Urea DAP + Urea DAP + Urea Seed type Local Quncho Quncho Quncho 8.46.4 9.5 11.1 OROMIA: FTC demonstration plot results Source: 2012 Data from Regional, Zonal and Woreda administration staff (collected Feb-April 2013); CSA 2012
  18. 18. 17 SNNP: overview of data collected Source: 2012 Data from Regional, Zonal and Woreda administration staff (collected Feb-April 2013) Farmer data overview Average yield 20.72 Standard deviation 9.06 Average productivity increase 64% Count of farmers and FTCs Raw Cleaned Farmers 3,766 3,480 Gender split Male 3,061 81% Female 124 3% Geographic scope within region (as reported) Count of zones N/A Count of woredas 38 11% 65% Row planting 1% Broadcasting (hand) Broadcasting (machine) 13% Transplanting Distribution of planting type % of total farmers (from raw data)
  19. 19. 18 SNNP: input use, yields achieved, and planting time Source: 2012 Data from Regional, Zonal and Woreda administration staff (collected Feb-April 2013) Inputs use of Validating Farmers Planting time of Validating Farmers Highest-producing woredas (based on Validating Farmers) Average input use by planting method Kg/hectare 41211 100100100 838783 Transplanting n = 889 Row planting n = 2,238 Broadcasting n = 1,446 Urea DAP Seed Average and maximum farmer yields Kg/hectare (average and max by woreda) 33 33 27 27 27Bona Zuria 33 Maraka 47 Gombera 30 Kuxha 70 Dalocha 69 Average Max Average yield based on planting time % productivity increase (compared to national average) 686367666972725234 178 -37 144 -200 200 0 Sept Week 1 August Week 4 August Week 3 August Week 2 August Week 1 July Week 4 July Week 3 July Week 2 July Week 1 June Week 4 June Week 3 June Week 2 June planting consists of only 5 farmers
  20. 20. 19 22.7 21.0 17.0 8.2 12.6 +177% Average yields by experimental plots across SNNP FTCs Quintal/hectare X.X Standard deviation Avg yield qt/ha Planting type National Average for 2012 Broadcast by hand Broadcast by machine Row plant Transplant Seed rate (kg/ha) 30-40 5-10 5-10 0.5-0.7 Fertilizer type none DAP + Urea DAP + Urea DAP + Urea Seed type Local Quncho Quncho Quncho 7.27.8 8.9 12.5 SNNP: FTC demonstration plot results Source: 2012 Data from Regional, Zonal and Woreda administration staff (collected Feb-April 2013); CSA 2012
  21. 21. 20 TIGRAY: overview of data collected Source: 2012 Data from Regional, Zonal and Woreda administration staff (collected Feb-April 2013) Farmer data overview Average yield 20.55 Standard deviation 9.09 Average productivity increase 63% Count of farmers and FTCs Raw Cleaned Farmers 551 486 Gender split Male 410 74% Female 54 10% Geographic scope within region (as reported) Count of zones N/A Count of woredas 11 4% 62% Row planting 5% Transplanting 4% Broadcasting (hand) Broadcasting (machine) Distribution of planting type % of total farmers (from raw data)
  22. 22. 21 TIGRAY: input use, yields achieved, and planting time Source: 2012 Data from Regional, Zonal and Woreda administration staff (collected Feb-April 2013) Inputs use of Validating Farmers Planting time of Validating Farmers Highest-producing woredas (based on Validating Farmers) Average input use by planting method Kg/hectare 7813 10098100 9192100 Transplanting n = 889 Row planting n = 2,238 Broadcasting n = 1,446 Urea DAP Seed Average and maximum farmer yields Kg/hectare (average and max by woreda) 32 30 30 28 26Tahtay Koraro 38 Weri-Leke 65 Medebay Zana 61 Adwa 53 Tahaty- Maichew 68 Average Max Average yield based on planting time % productivity increase (compared to national average) 36 7449 -25 29100 0 Sept Week 1 August Week 4 August Week 3 -100 August Week 2 August Week 1 July Week 4 July Week 3 July Week 2 July Week 1 75 June Week 4 -17 June Week 3 67 June Week 2 76 36N/A N/A Includes only 2 farmers Includes only 2 farmers
  23. 23. 22 18.918.7 16.5 11.812.6 +60% Average yields by experimental plots across Tigray FTCs Quintal/hectare X.X Standard deviation Avg yield qt/ha Planting type National Average for 2012 Broadcast by hand Broadcast by machine Row plant Transplant Seed rate (kg/ha) 30-40 5-10 5-10 0.5-0.7 Fertilizer type none DAP + Urea DAP + Urea DAP + Urea Seed type Local Quncho Quncho Quncho 9.511.0 10.5 11.8 TIGRAY: FTC demonstration plot results Source: 2012 Data from Regional, Zonal and Woreda administration staff (collected Feb-April 2013); CSA 2012
  24. 24. Takeaways from 2012 farmer and FTC data analysis that should inform ATA and RBoA planning and execution for 2013 and 2013 tef planting seasons 23 Takeaways to inform 2013 and 2014 intervention planning and execution • The benefits of optimal fertilizer application rates should be better disseminated to farmers via trainings and materials, particularly for Urea • More intensive training on transplanting management practices should be provided to farmers given the volatility in yields observed in 2012 • FTCs should be encouraged to conduct demonstrations to test for specific variables’ impact on yield (e.g., planting 2-3 weeks earlier, reduced seed rates of 5/10/15/ kg per ha, pelleted Urea) • FTC yields indicate significant yield increases due to use of Quncho with 90% of farmers in these trials using Quncho; should explore further support for Quncho while also considering other improved varieties
  25. 25. 24  Includes 15,790 validating farmers’ data  8% of data was omitted as inaccurate or incomplete  45% (33% + 12%) of validating farmers’ yields were between 20 and 40 quintals per hectare Overview of data collected: yield distribution for 15,790 validating farmers and 1,107 FTCs Source: 2012 Data from Regional, Zonal and Woreda administration staff (collected Feb-April 2013) 40 to 60 40 0 20 1% 60+ 3% 30 to 40 12% 20 to 30 33% 10 to 20 40% Less than 10 8% Distribution of Validating Farmers’ yields Frequency of yield increase (as % of total data set)  Covers 1,107 FTCs with an average of 9.6 experimental data plots per FTC  4% of the data was omitted as inaccurate or incomplete  Distribution of yields is wider given trials included many variables 40 20 0 40+ 2% 30 to 40 7% 20 to 30 20% 10 to 20 38% 5 to 10 18% Less than 5 11% Distribution of FTC yield per experimental plot Frequency of yield increase (as % of total data set) Quintals / hectare Quintals / hectare
  26. 26. 25 Overview of data collected: basics Source: 2012 Data from Regional, Zonal and Woreda administration staff (collected Feb-April 2013) Farmer data overview average yield 20.86 std dev 12.38 bell curve upper bound 58.00 average productivity increase 66% Count of farmers Amhara 4,958 31% Oromia 6,515 41% SNNP 3,766 24% Tigray 551 3% Total farmers 15,790 Gender split Male 14346 95% Female 685 5% 20% 1% 17% 61% Broadcasting (machine) Row plantingTransplanting Broadcasting (hand) Distribution of planting type % of total farmers

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