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Estimating Public Intangibles in Real Time

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Estimating Public Intangibles in Real Time. Society for Economic Measurement Annual Conference
Thessaloniki (Greece), July 6th- 8th, 2016

Published in: Economy & Finance
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Estimating Public Intangibles in Real Time

  1. 1. Estimating Public Intangibles in Real Time F. Bacchini (Istat), Rome R. Iannaccone, (Istat), Rome Society for Economic Measurement Annual Conference Thessaloniki (Greece), July 6th- 8th, 2016 This project has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No. 612774 SPINTAN 1 / 15
  2. 2. Outline • Timeliness problem and data available (nominal investment) • Information set and methodology for real time estimation • Estimation for Italy • Robustness check SPINTAN 2 / 15
  3. 3. Information set for intagibles: dierent across assets ... Introduction of SNA 2008 ESA 2010, RD is now classied as investment SPINTAN 3 / 15
  4. 4. ...and across countries USA: Intangible Investment as SPINTAN 4 / 15
  5. 5. What we have: use table 2012 (for some asset) SPINTAN 5 / 15
  6. 6. What we have: information set after 2012 -1 Total intermediate consumption for industry SPINTAN 6 / 15
  7. 7. What we have: information set after 2012 - 2 Annual account for institutional sector SPINTAN 7 / 15
  8. 8. What we have: information set after 2012 - 3 Turnover in services quarterly data SPINTAN 8 / 15
  9. 9. Methodology - step 1 Estimation for industry SPINTAN 9 / 15
  10. 10. Methodology - step 1 Estimation for asset - total industry SPINTAN 10 / 15
  11. 11. Methodology - step 2 estimation product using STS+NA (hours worked in training) SPINTAN 11 / 15
  12. 12. Methodology - step 3 average from step 1-2 SPINTAN 12 / 15
  13. 13. Robustness check Estimation vs. real data - Italy SPINTAN 13 / 15
  14. 14. Final results Italy intangibles estimation 2010-2015 SPINTAN 14 / 15
  15. 15. Further steps • Complete real time estimation for European countries including also assets as RD • extend a rolling robustness check (for example now 2011-2012) to improve estimation performance • extend the approach to market sector • create a short-term index for intangibles SPINTAN 15 / 15

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