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Estimating Public Intangibles in Real Time

SPINTAN
SPINTAN

Estimating Public Intangibles in Real Time. Society for Economic Measurement Annual Conference Thessaloniki (Greece), July 6th- 8th, 2016

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Estimating Public Intangibles in Real Time
F. Bacchini (Istat), Rome
R. Iannaccone, (Istat), Rome
Society for Economic Measurement Annual Conference
Thessaloniki (Greece), July 6th- 8th, 2016
This project has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme for
research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No. 612774
SPINTAN 1 / 15
Outline
• Timeliness problem and data available (nominal investment)
• Information set and methodology for real time estimation
• Estimation for Italy
• Robustness check
SPINTAN 2 / 15
Information set for intagibles: dierent across assets ...
Introduction of SNA 2008 ESA 2010, RD is now classied as
investment
SPINTAN 3 / 15
...and across countries
USA: Intangible Investment as
SPINTAN 4 / 15
What we have: use table 2012 (for some asset)
SPINTAN 5 / 15
What we have: information set after 2012 -1
Total intermediate consumption for industry
SPINTAN 6 / 15
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Estimating Public Intangibles in Real Time

  • 1. Estimating Public Intangibles in Real Time F. Bacchini (Istat), Rome R. Iannaccone, (Istat), Rome Society for Economic Measurement Annual Conference Thessaloniki (Greece), July 6th- 8th, 2016 This project has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No. 612774 SPINTAN 1 / 15
  • 2. Outline • Timeliness problem and data available (nominal investment) • Information set and methodology for real time estimation • Estimation for Italy • Robustness check SPINTAN 2 / 15
  • 3. Information set for intagibles: dierent across assets ... Introduction of SNA 2008 ESA 2010, RD is now classied as investment SPINTAN 3 / 15
  • 4. ...and across countries USA: Intangible Investment as SPINTAN 4 / 15
  • 5. What we have: use table 2012 (for some asset) SPINTAN 5 / 15
  • 6. What we have: information set after 2012 -1 Total intermediate consumption for industry SPINTAN 6 / 15
  • 7. What we have: information set after 2012 - 2 Annual account for institutional sector SPINTAN 7 / 15
  • 8. What we have: information set after 2012 - 3 Turnover in services quarterly data SPINTAN 8 / 15
  • 9. Methodology - step 1 Estimation for industry SPINTAN 9 / 15
  • 10. Methodology - step 1 Estimation for asset - total industry SPINTAN 10 / 15
  • 11. Methodology - step 2 estimation product using STS+NA (hours worked in training) SPINTAN 11 / 15
  • 12. Methodology - step 3 average from step 1-2 SPINTAN 12 / 15
  • 13. Robustness check Estimation vs. real data - Italy SPINTAN 13 / 15
  • 14. Final results Italy intangibles estimation 2010-2015 SPINTAN 14 / 15
  • 15. Further steps • Complete real time estimation for European countries including also assets as RD • extend a rolling robustness check (for example now 2011-2012) to improve estimation performance • extend the approach to market sector • create a short-term index for intangibles SPINTAN 15 / 15