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1
Financing Africa’s
Sustainable Development
• Amadou Sy, Tuesday, May 12, 2015
2
Outline
1. The Common African Position on the post-2015 sustainable
development agenda
2. Africa’s structural economic t...
3
Outline
1. The Common African Position on the post-2015
sustainable development agenda
2. Africa’s structural economic t...
4
Common African Position (CAP) on the Post-2015
Development Agenda: Ownership & common interests
• “…we come as 54 countr...
5
Common African Position (CAP) on the Post-
2015 Development Agenda: Six Pillars
1. Structural economic transformation an...
6
Common African Position (CAP) on the Post-
2015 Development Agenda: Pillar Six
Pillar 6 of the CAP is to be linked with ...
7
Common African Position (CAP) on the Post-2015
Development Agenda: Uneven progress toward MDGs
• Advances in areas but u...
8
Common African Position (CAP) on the Post-2015
Development Agenda: ODA < 0.7% of GNI
Source: OECD
9
Outline
1. The Common African Position on the post-2015 sustainable
development agenda
2. Africa’s structural economic t...
10
Growth convergence
• Africa has made progress in lowering some of the country-
specific obstacles that was holding it b...
11
A closer look at Africa’s growth performance
Trend component in GDP growth (%), 1980-2019p
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
...
12
A closer look at Africa’s growth performance
GDP per capita, 1970 =100
Source: ACET (2014); Earlier transformers countr...
13
Africa’s Structural Economic Transformation
Typology of growth processes
Source: Rodrik (2014)
14
Africa’s Structural Economic Transformation
• The structure of African economies has not changed much since
the 1980s a...
15
Challenges for Economic Transformation
• African agriculture is its least productive sector and has the
lowest income a...
16
The Agenda for Africa’s transformation
1. Increase productivity in the agriculture sector
2. Revitalize manufacturing (...
17
Outline
1. The Common African Position on the post-2015 sustainable
development agenda
2. Africa’s structural economic ...
18
Building on the Monterrey Financing for
Development Consensus
• Monterrey Consensus covers key elements
» Domestic Reso...
19
Building on the Monterrey Financing for
Development Consensus
1. Domestic Revenue Mobilization & national financing pla...
20
Building on the Monterrey Financing for
Development Consensus: a Tailored approach
Sub-Saharan Africa: External Flows b...
21
Domestic fiscal space (Revenue/GDP)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Oil Exporting Countries Non-Oil Exporting Countries
S...
22
Outline
1. The Common African Position on the post-2015 sustainable
development agenda
2. Africa’s structural economic ...
23
Financing African Infrastructure
24
Surge in external financing to Infrastructure
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
...
25
External financing concentration (2009-12)
Source: Gutman, Sy, and Chattopadhyay (2015).
17%
11%
10%
8%
7%
47%
South Af...
26
Energy expanding, telecom maturing
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
US$ millions
Energy Telecom Transport Wat...
27
PPI dominant in telecom (2005-2013)
19%
2%
64%
0%
4%
1%
10%
0% 0%
Electricity
Natural Gas
Telecom
Airports
Railroads
Ro...
28
ODF particularly relevant in non-ICT
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
US$ millions
Energy Telecom Transport Wate...
29
Chinese financing growing significantly
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
US$ millions
Energy Telecom Transport Water Supply ...
30
Chinese financing favoring stable economies
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2005-2008 2009-2012
Fragile Low Income Non-Fragile Low ...
31
Traditional financing matrix now in flux
Source: Gutman, Sy, and Chattopadhyay (2015).
Sectors Government ODF China PPI...
32
Concerns:
• Sub-national/urban infrastructure ignored (both in
assessing needs and in financing)
• Emphasis on facilita...
33
Recommendations:
Build on existing institutional structures and functions, rather
than invent new institutions
• Enhanc...
34
Outline
1. The Common African Position on the post-2015 sustainable
development agenda
2. Africa’s structural economic ...
35
Common African Position (CAP) on the Post-
2015 Development Agenda: Six Pillars
Pillar 6 of the CAP is to be linked wit...
36
Conclusions
• Domestic resources mobilization should be the
priority
» Public finance: transparency, public financial
m...
37
A Busy Agenda in 2015
• Third International Conference on Financing
for Development, 13-16 July, 2015, Addis
Ababa.
• U...
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Financing Africa’s Sustainable Development

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“Financing Africa's Sustainable Development” by Amadou Sy, Brookings Institution

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Financing Africa’s Sustainable Development

  1. 1. 1 Financing Africa’s Sustainable Development • Amadou Sy, Tuesday, May 12, 2015
  2. 2. 2 Outline 1. The Common African Position on the post-2015 sustainable development agenda 2. Africa’s structural economic transformation 3. Building on the Monterrey financing for development consensus 4. Case study: Financing Africa’s Infrastructure 5. Conclusions
  3. 3. 3 Outline 1. The Common African Position on the post-2015 sustainable development agenda 2. Africa’s structural economic transformation 3. Building on the Monterrey financing for development consensus 4. Case study: Financing Africa’s Infrastructure 5. Conclusions
  4. 4. 4 Common African Position (CAP) on the Post-2015 Development Agenda: Ownership & common interests • “…we come as 54 countries in unison, determined to represent a broad spectrum of stakeholders…” • “…unique opportunity for Africa to articulate its common priorities, opportunities, and challenges…we affirm our collective interests… • “…we stress that the post-2015 Development Agenda should also reflect Africa’s priorities and development programs…”
  5. 5. 5 Common African Position (CAP) on the Post- 2015 Development Agenda: Six Pillars 1. Structural economic transformation and inclusive growth. 2. Science, technology, and innovation. 3. People-centered development. 4. Environmental sustainability, natural resources management, and disaster risk management. 5. Peace and security 6. Finance and partnerships
  6. 6. 6 Common African Position (CAP) on the Post- 2015 Development Agenda: Pillar Six Pillar 6 of the CAP is to be linked with the first 5 pillars. • Improving domestic resource mobilization; • Maximizing innovative financing; • Implementing existing commitments and promoting quality and predictability of external financing; • Promoting mutually beneficial partnerships; Strengthening partnerships for trade; • Establish partnerships for managing global commons
  7. 7. 7 Common African Position (CAP) on the Post-2015 Development Agenda: Uneven progress toward MDGs • Advances in areas but uneven progress in others: Source: World Bank
  8. 8. 8 Common African Position (CAP) on the Post-2015 Development Agenda: ODA < 0.7% of GNI Source: OECD
  9. 9. 9 Outline 1. The Common African Position on the post-2015 sustainable development agenda 2. Africa’s structural economic transformation 3. Building on the Monterrey financing for development consensus 4. Case study: Financing Africa’s Infrastructure 5. Conclusions
  10. 10. 10 Growth convergence • Africa has made progress in lowering some of the country- specific obstacles that was holding it back. There is of course room for improvement in levels of investment, human capital, and quality of policies (“growth fundamentals”) and it is important that policymakers not only continue improving economic and political governance but accelerate the pace of reforms. • But as noted by Rodrik (2014), investment in “growth fundamentals” alone has not been shown to lead to rapid and sustainable growth. As a result, the focus is on the role of structural transformation in the growth process of the continent.
  11. 11. 11 A closer look at Africa’s growth performance Trend component in GDP growth (%), 1980-2019p 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Africa EMDEV Advanced Source: IMF WEO, April 2014 and HP filter used for trend and cyclical components.
  12. 12. 12 A closer look at Africa’s growth performance GDP per capita, 1970 =100 Source: ACET (2014); Earlier transformers countries include Brazil, Chile, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam.
  13. 13. 13 Africa’s Structural Economic Transformation Typology of growth processes Source: Rodrik (2014)
  14. 14. 14 Africa’s Structural Economic Transformation • The structure of African economies has not changed much since the 1980s and most countries remain dependent on extractive industries and low-yield agriculture. • The contribution of manufacturing—mostly dominated by small and informal firms—to output is negligible and the services sector includes a large share of informal activities in urban areas. • Industrialization in Africa is now lower than in the 1970s. Manufacturing industries’ share of employment is now below 8 percent and their share in GDP has fallen to 10 percent from about 15 percent in 1975 (selected 11 countries data).
  15. 15. 15 Challenges for Economic Transformation • African agriculture is its least productive sector and has the lowest income and consumption levels. McMillan and Harttgen (2014) estimates that the share of the labor force engaged in agriculture fell by about 10 percent during 2000-2010 while services and manufacturing employment grew by 8 and 2 percent, respectively. • The problem as noted by Rodrik (2014) is that African labor is migrating from agriculture and rural areas, but instead of moving to formal manufacturing industries, it is being absorbed largely in the services sector, which is not particularly productive and dominated by informal activities.
  16. 16. 16 The Agenda for Africa’s transformation 1. Increase productivity in the agriculture sector 2. Revitalize manufacturing (agribusines, role of China and South-South cooperation, global value chains) 3. Services sector (build on the ICT sector, mobile banking) 4. Better management and use of natural resources wealth 5. Address Africa’s infrastructure deficit
  17. 17. 17 Outline 1. The Common African Position on the post-2015 sustainable development agenda 2. Africa’s structural economic transformation 3. Building on the Monterrey financing for development consensus 4. Case study: Financing Africa’s Infrastructure 5. Conclusions
  18. 18. 18 Building on the Monterrey Financing for Development Consensus • Monterrey Consensus covers key elements » Domestic Resource Mobilization, national financing plans and country-led development » Private capital flows » Trade as an engine of growth » International financial and technical cooperation » External Debt » Global monetary, financial and trading systems
  19. 19. 19 Building on the Monterrey Financing for Development Consensus 1. Domestic Revenue Mobilization & national financing plans » Public finance (< 1% of ODA goes to DRM) » DSA and Domestic and external debt management » Financial and capital markets development 2. External Finance: » Spillover effects of financial crises, changes in global monetary policy » Capital account liberalization and management » Unintended consequences of global regulation (Basel III, AML/CFT) 3. Financing Infrastructure
  20. 20. 20 Building on the Monterrey Financing for Development Consensus: a Tailored approach Sub-Saharan Africa: External Flows by Income Level (Deviations from SSA 1990-2012 average, in percent of GDP) -5.0 -3.0 -1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 ODA Private capital Government revenue Remittances MICs Oil Exporting NRRHG SSA Fragile/LICs Source: Sy and Rakotondrazaka (2015)
  21. 21. 21 Domestic fiscal space (Revenue/GDP) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Oil Exporting Countries Non-Oil Exporting Countries Source: Gutman, Sy, and Chattopadhyay (2015).
  22. 22. 22 Outline 1. The Common African Position on the post-2015 sustainable development agenda 2. Africa’s structural economic transformation 3. Building on the Monterrey financing for development consensus 4. Case study: Financing Africa’s Infrastructure 5. Conclusions
  23. 23. 23 Financing African Infrastructure
  24. 24. 24 Surge in external financing to Infrastructure 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 US$ millions PPI China ODF Source: Gutman, Sy, and Chattopadhyay (2015).
  25. 25. 25 External financing concentration (2009-12) Source: Gutman, Sy, and Chattopadhyay (2015). 17% 11% 10% 8% 7% 47% South Africa Nigeria Ghana Kenya Ethiopia Other (46)
  26. 26. 26 Energy expanding, telecom maturing 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 US$ millions Energy Telecom Transport Water Supply & Sanitation Source: Gutman, Sy, and Chattopadhyay (2015).
  27. 27. 27 PPI dominant in telecom (2005-2013) 19% 2% 64% 0% 4% 1% 10% 0% 0% Electricity Natural Gas Telecom Airports Railroads Roads Seaports Water Treatment Water Utility Source: Gutman, Sy, and Chattopadhyay (2015).
  28. 28. 28 ODF particularly relevant in non-ICT 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 US$ millions Energy Telecom Transport Water Supply & Sanitation Source: Gutman, Sy, and Chattopadhyay (2015).
  29. 29. 29 Chinese financing growing significantly 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 US$ millions Energy Telecom Transport Water Supply & Sanitation Source: Gutman, Sy, and Chattopadhyay (2015).
  30. 30. 30 Chinese financing favoring stable economies 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 2005-2008 2009-2012 Fragile Low Income Non-Fragile Low Income Source: Gutman, Sy, and Chattopadhyay (2015).
  31. 31. 31 Traditional financing matrix now in flux Source: Gutman, Sy, and Chattopadhyay (2015). Sectors Government ODF China PPI Energy     Telecommunication  Transport     Water   Transport Government ODF China PPI Airports   Railroads    Roads    Seaports   
  32. 32. 32 Concerns: • Sub-national/urban infrastructure ignored (both in assessing needs and in financing) • Emphasis on facilitating projects have ignored governance, coordination, and efficiency gains • Complementarity in financing across sources, countries, sectors is purely serendipitous • Traditional coordination mechanisms ill-suited in new economic environment with new and multiple stakeholders • PPI, outside telecom, has had limited distribution
  33. 33. 33 Recommendations: Build on existing institutional structures and functions, rather than invent new institutions • Enhance collaboration and coordination across traditional and non-traditional sources of finance • Regional guidance of investment practices for economic, social, environmental sustainability (sustainable infrastructure) • Extend opportunities for private investment • Improve public financing support including sub- national/urban finance and investment • Focus on broader sectoral governance reform opportunities
  34. 34. 34 Outline 1. The Common African Position on the post-2015 sustainable development agenda 2. Africa’s structural economic transformation 3. Building on the Monterrey financing for development consensus 4. Case study: Financing Africa’s Infrastructure 5. Conclusions
  35. 35. 35 Common African Position (CAP) on the Post- 2015 Development Agenda: Six Pillars Pillar 6 of the CAP is to be linked with the first 5 pillars. • Improving domestic resource mobilization; • Maximizing innovative financing; • Implementing existing commitments and promoting quality and predictability of external financing; • Promoting mutually beneficial partnerships; • Strengthening partnerships for trade; • Establish partnerships for managing global commons
  36. 36. 36 Conclusions • Domestic resources mobilization should be the priority » Public finance: transparency, public financial management. » Capital markets development: local institutional base, debt sustainability, debt management. • It is not just about the money: » what exactly are we financing? what is the broader strategy? (e.g. the $93 infrastructure gap can be reduced by $17bn through productivity gains) » consider the non financial benefit of the financial flows (technology transfer, local content regulation)
  37. 37. 37 A Busy Agenda in 2015 • Third International Conference on Financing for Development, 13-16 July, 2015, Addis Ababa. • United Nations Summit to adopt the post- 2015 development agenda, 25-27 September 2015, New York. • United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP21, 30 November-11 December 2015, Paris.

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