A revolution in the air: David Stewart, ICF International


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On-board connectivity continues apace, as the new ‘in-flight must-have’ for both passengers and crew. As it becomes the default expectation for next generation travelers, tablets and mobile devices in the air will impact passenger service levels and customer satisfaction as much as they are on the ground. From an operational point of view, what are the IT needs for the cabin, cockpit and data handling to ground? What innovations can we expect, and how do we see the development of new services for keeping customers happy and loyal?

A revolution in the air – improving the flying experience: David Stewart, ICF International

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A revolution in the air: David Stewart, ICF International

  1. 1. ICF International | icfi.com © ICF 2014 11 Connected Aircraft Outlook and Opportunities June, 2014 Presented by: David Stewart Global Lead, Aerospace & MRO Practice  ICF International
  2. 2. ICF International | icfi.com © ICF 2014 22 Fleet Development
  3. 3. ICF International | icfi.com © ICF 2014 3 Over the next decade, the fleet will grow to 31,000 with over 11,300 new generation IP-enabled aircraft FLEET DEVELOPMENT Air Transport Jet Fleet Development 2013 vs 2022 Highlights  ICF forecasts average air travel growth of 3.9% through 2023  ~940 extra active aircraft per year  ~900 annual retirements by 2023  Huge growth of new generation aircraft – 42% CAGR  How much of the current mature fleet might be retrofitted? 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 2013 2023 Mature - Out of Production, - 7.8% Mature - In Production, 1.7% Excludes Turboprops Source: ICF SH&E New: A380, 747-8, 787, 777X, A350, A320neo, 737MAX, EJets E2, CSeries, C919, ARJ21, MRJ, MS-21, Superjet Aircraft Fleet CAGR Total = 3.6%
  4. 4. ICF International | icfi.com © ICF 2014 4 The rapid ramp-up of New Gen aircraft will accelerate the demand for new e-enabled services FLEET DEVELOPMENT Air Transport Production Forecast  Introduction and rapid build up of A320NEO and 737 Max  Introduction and build up of A350XWB, 787, 777X Source: ICF SH&E “Our aircraft management approach will be vastly different on the 787” European long haul airline Narrowbody (Units) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 A320 A320NEO B737 B737 MAX C919 CSeries MS-21 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 A330 A350XWB A380 B748 B767 B777 B777X B787 Widebody (Units)
  5. 5. ICF International | icfi.com © ICF 2014 5 Come 2033, the New Gen fleet will be huge - over 29,000 aircraft or 75% FLEET DEVELOPMENT New Gen Others 2033 Air Transport Jet Fleet (38,600 total) Source: ICFI analysis. Excludes Turboprops Highlights  ICF forecasts the total Air Transport jet fleet to be 38,600 by 2033  29,000 (75%) of these will be new generation platforms
  6. 6. ICF International | icfi.com © ICF 2014 66 E-enabled opportunities
  7. 7. ICF International | icfi.com © ICF 2014 7 New technologies will drive greater operational efficiency and facilitate better schedule reliability and enhanced services for the passenger AIRCRAFT AND CREW OPERATIONS IMPLICATIONS Functionalities affected by new technologies Flight Management Inter-operability. EFB, connectivity and data analytics Impacting ATM, fuel and operational efficiencies Operations Control Passenger Service To protect aircraft and schedule integrity… By coordinating flight, crews, passenger, maintenance and ground operations Data exchange and analytics enable better on- and off-board decision making Information management and data analytics Impacting connection management and enabling improved service opportunities on- and off-board Significant utilization, operations, cost and on-board service benefits
  8. 8. ICF International | icfi.com © ICF 2014 8 E-enabled technologies in maintenance will additionally reduce costs and facilitate better schedule reliability for passengers Functionalities affected by new technologies Line maintenance  17 % of airline MRO spend  Handheld devices being introduced  Significant time savings by providing mechanics access to information at the aircraft Maintenance planning Health management Supply chain management Technical document management  30% of MRO systems are legacy  New aircraft types drive adoption of new systems  Mobile technology, electronic task cards and xml will improve updates of- and interaction between systems  Traditionally used for ex- post reliability diagnostics  Advances in data generation and analytics will enable prognostics and predictive maintenance  Provides design feedback for OEMs  MRO supply chain holds $47B of inventory  More EDI and RFID technology, automation and visibility/traceability can decrease work in progress, increase pooling and increase inventory utilization  Widespread use of services that scan paper records and make them available  ETL/EFB, cloud services and mobile devices will change generation, handling and storage of technical records AIRCRAFT MAINTENANCE IMPLICATIONS A key issue for resolution: who owns the data?
  9. 9. ICF International | icfi.com © ICF 2014 9 Opportunities exist to improve passenger experience significantly CABIN AND PASSENGER IMPLICATIONS THE FUTURE IFE?  Seamless experience from ticketing to arrival  Easy to use systems, consistent with experience elsewhere  Use of (tablet) device at all times  Security  Access to early release content?  Power/re-charging availability “Airlines will no longer be hardware providers, rather connectivity providers”
  10. 10. ICF International | icfi.com © ICF 2014 10 What else does the future hold? CABIN AND PASSENGER IMPLICATIONS Cabin environment control? Lighting controls Attendant call & drinks/ meal pre-orders and requests Customized content & entertainment VOIP or GSM calling Shopping experience Reliable, capable and affordable IP connectivity to ground throughout flight will be critical
  11. 11. ICF International | icfi.com © ICF 2014 11 The challenge to airlines and equipment suppliers is to keep up with passenger expectations CABIN AND PASSENGER IMPLICATIONS  Expectation of being constantly engaged and connected  Expectation of faster and more reliable connection speeds  Expectation of the “latest and greatest”  Expectation of affordability and value Source: digitalnewsasia.com
  12. 12. ICF International | icfi.com © ICF 2014 12 David Stewart Head of Aerospace and MRO Watling House 33 Cannon Street London EC4M 5SB United Kingdom +44 (0)20 3096 4931 david.stewart@icfi.com Thank You!
  13. 13. DISCLAIMER Any use, republication or redistribution of this content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of the Author. Permission to copy and reproduce content may be granted by the author, at their discretion, and by request only. Source: presentation of David Stewart, ICF International at the 2014 SITA Air Transport IT Summit, Brussels. 2014 Air Transport IT Summit