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Supporting global and European climate and energy policy-making through the nexus approach

SIM4NEXUS
SIM4NEXUS

Supporting global and European climate and energy policy-making through the nexus approach by Dr. Dora Fazekas (Cambridge Econometrics) in the context of the 10th International Scientific Conference on Energy & Climate Change in Athens, Greece.

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Supporting global and
European climate and energy
policy-making through the
nexus approach
12th Oct 2017
Dr Dora Fazekas,
Eva Alexandri
Cambridge Econometrics
Energy and Climate Change Green
Investments Forum 10th International
Scientific Conference
Agenda
• Cambridge Econometrics
• Sim4Nexus
• Nexus approach
• Thematic models
• Azerbaijan case study
Cambridge Econometrics (CE)
• Economic consultancy with offices in Cambridge
and Brussels
• Specialise in the application of economic
modelling and data analysis techniques for policy
assessment and forecasting
• Thematic areas
• macroeconomy and industries
• energy, climate and the circular economy
• employment and skills
• regions, cities and local areas
• infrastructure and economic development.
SIM4NEXUS project
• H2020
• innovative way of looking at nexus challenges and
opportunities, and their use in policy assessment
• increasing cross-sectoral dimensions in European
policy-making
• project aims at
• developing innovative methodologies to facilitate the
design of policies and
• bridge knowledge and technology gaps in the field of the
water-land-food-energy-climate Nexus under climate
change conditions
Our vision of the Nexus concept
resource
efficiency
governance
technological
innovation
demographic
trends
social
cohesion
economic
development
policy
instruments
social
innovation
energy
water
land
food
climate
change
climate
SIM4NEXUS concept
before integration partial integration
Nexus with
SIM4NEXUS
Common practice with silo-thinking,
fragmented policy and decision making
and R&D support
Decision making partially
integrating Nexus components
with high uncertainty about results
SIM4NEXUS approach: NEXUS-
compliant R&D and policy-making
thematic models
knowledge
policy & decision making
complexity
science
producing
integrated
knowledge
water energy food land climate
with high uncertainty
All Nexus
components
interacting
with reduced
uncertainty

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Supporting global and European climate and energy policy-making through the nexus approach

  • 1. Supporting global and European climate and energy policy-making through the nexus approach 12th Oct 2017 Dr Dora Fazekas, Eva Alexandri Cambridge Econometrics Energy and Climate Change Green Investments Forum 10th International Scientific Conference
  • 2. Agenda • Cambridge Econometrics • Sim4Nexus • Nexus approach • Thematic models • Azerbaijan case study
  • 3. Cambridge Econometrics (CE) • Economic consultancy with offices in Cambridge and Brussels • Specialise in the application of economic modelling and data analysis techniques for policy assessment and forecasting • Thematic areas • macroeconomy and industries • energy, climate and the circular economy • employment and skills • regions, cities and local areas • infrastructure and economic development.
  • 4. SIM4NEXUS project • H2020 • innovative way of looking at nexus challenges and opportunities, and their use in policy assessment • increasing cross-sectoral dimensions in European policy-making • project aims at • developing innovative methodologies to facilitate the design of policies and • bridge knowledge and technology gaps in the field of the water-land-food-energy-climate Nexus under climate change conditions
  • 5. Our vision of the Nexus concept resource efficiency governance technological innovation demographic trends social cohesion economic development policy instruments social innovation energy water land food climate change climate
  • 6. SIM4NEXUS concept before integration partial integration Nexus with SIM4NEXUS Common practice with silo-thinking, fragmented policy and decision making and R&D support Decision making partially integrating Nexus components with high uncertainty about results SIM4NEXUS approach: NEXUS- compliant R&D and policy-making thematic models knowledge policy & decision making complexity science producing integrated knowledge water energy food land climate with high uncertainty All Nexus components interacting with reduced uncertainty
  • 7. 7 E3ME-FTT MAGNET CAPRI IMAGE- GLOBIO OSeMOSYS SWIM MAgPIE-LPJmL Nexus components Energy, land, economy, climate Food, land, economy, energy, climate Food, water, env., bioenergy, climate Land, env., water, energy Energy, land, climate, water Water, land, climate Food, land, water, env., bioenergy, climate Geo coverage Global Global Global Global Global River basins Global Spatial EU resolution National National Regional (NUTS2) Detailed grids River basin, national Regional, river basin Detailed grids Appl. to case studies Global, EU- wide and national Global, EU- wide and national All Global and European Global and European Transbou ndary Global and European Time step Annual Flexible, until 2050 Flexible, until 2050 Annual Annual Annual 5-year steps Time frame Until 2050 Until 2050 Until 2050 Until 2100 Until 2050 Until 2050 Until 2100 Thematic models
  • 8. 8 The selection of the thematic models to be applied to each case study followed a participatory and iterative process representing a diversity of scales for decision- making, as well as socioeconomic and institutional conditions 12 case studies Thematic models used for case studies
  • 9. 9 The models used in each case study Case study Thematic model applied E3ME MAGNET CAPRI IMAGE- GLOBIO Osemosys SWIM magPIE -LPjML Andalusia XX XX XX Sardinia XX XX XX* Southwest UK XX XX The Netherlands XX XX XX Sweden XX XX XX XX* Greece XX XX XX XX* XX Latvia XX XX XX Azerbaijan XX XX XX XX France-Germany XX XX XX XX Germany-Czech Republic-Slovakia XX XX Europe XX XX XX XX XX Global XX XX XX XX XX XX
  • 10. E3ME is an econometric model • An analytical tool designed to simulate interactions and dynamics of the economy • Comprehensive: whole E3: energy-environment-eonomy system, all sectors, many policy instruments • Open as regards economic policy, i.e. no assumptions of full employment, budget balance, or balance of payments equilibrium • “Scenario” approach • Treatment of uncertainty • in parameter estimates (econometric estimation of error distribution) • in assumptions and policies (by scenario analysis) • Modular, so that research can be decentralised e.g. energy submodel
  • 11. 11 Azerbaijan case study • Transition economy relying almost entirely on income from oil and gas exports • Drilling activity leads to externalities linked to the use of resources (water), land use (including ecosystems) • Pursuing diversification of the economy • Food self-reliance highly prioritized • Share of renewables to increase • Reforestation and crop adaptation to be considered
  • 12. 12 Sectoral and Nexus Challenges WATER FOOD ENERGY • Sector driving the economy • Fossil fuel exports • Lack of diversification in energy sources Fuel extraction and production Energy intensity of water systems irrigation, water supply, treatment, wastewater treatment Hydropower generation Thermal power cooling systems Large cultivated area under irrigation Use of fertilizers Intensive agriculture • Important sector of the economy • Food security issue • 36% population employed in agriculture
  • 13. 13 Case study: thematic models and coverage of nexus systems AZERBAIJAN Thematic model applied Nexus system E3ME MAGNET CAPRI OSeMOSYS Climate X X X Land Use X X X (env, bioenergy) Energy X X X Water X X Food X X X Economy X X
  • 14. 14 Work progress and challenges • Limited availability of detailed economic and energy data • OSeMOSYS model baseline scenario developed, Working with open-source data • MAGNET in progress • Azerbaijan could not be put in E3ME as a separate region, as E3ME has quite high level data requirements both in terms of variables as well as level of disaggregation • An alternative solution: single-region Input-Output model based on a very detailed IO table for 2011 from the Azerbaijan National Statistics Office, covering 81 sectors and products.
  • 15. 15 Soft-linking of the thematic models • Integration of the thematic models’ knowledge would lead to reduced uncertainty when modelling policy outcomes • Models can be hard-linked or soft-linked depending on the way information is transferred between the models. • Soft linking: the user decides if and when feedback between models takes place. The information transfer is ‘manual’. • Hard-linking: implies formal links where information is transferred without any user judgment • Single region IO model will be soft-linked to thematic models, with one-way feedbacks.
  • 16. 16 Results from a scenario run in E3ME can inform demand changes in the single region model • E3ME could be used to simulate EU policies leading to a decrease in EU imports of oil and gas • outputs can be used to estimate the decrease in Azerbaijan energy exports through the single-region model • then the results from this model could be fed into MAGNET to estimate changes to water supply and possibly land use and potential food security issue (e.g. the impact of less water used in oil extraction and potential redirection to agriculture). • then it is possible to use the Osemosys model to get an indication of changes to the energy system in the country.
  • 17. 17 Conclusions/ Policy relevance • The single country input-output model as a substitute for more detailed and complex economic models may be particularly interesting for the policy makers in emerging economies as this makes it possible to overcome data constraints and allows the analysis of more complex policy scenarios.
  • 18. For further information please consult www.sim4nexus.eu, follow us at @SIM4NEXUS Thanks for your attention! df@camecon.com
  • 19. 19 Potential scenarios • set of scenarios to explore would be looking at the economic impact of a decrease in demand in fossil fuel exports, particularly as a result of EU policy actions. A set of scenarios could estimate the decrease in EU oil and gas imports • in the case of increased support for alternative fuel vehicles, • the achievement of NDC targets, or • the more ambitious policies trying to achieve the 2C target.